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工业富联(601138):Q3业绩稳增长明确,长期成长确定性良好
Shanghai Securities· 2025-10-31 12:47
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 603.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.40%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.49 billion yuan, up 48.52%, indicating the sustainability of performance expansion [5] - Cloud business is the primary growth driver, with revenue growth exceeding 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and Q3 growth accelerating to over 75%, driven by large-scale deliveries of AI cabinet products for data centers [6] - The company is experiencing a new growth momentum driven by AI and networking businesses, with significant advancements in AI server customization solutions and the large-scale rollout of 800G switches [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The latest closing price is 72.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of 1,429.79 billion yuan [2] - The company’s total share capital is 19,858.18 million shares, with 100% of A-shares available for circulation [2] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 851.91 billion, 1,234.76 billion, and 1,523.08 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 35.98 billion, 48.43 billion, and 61.66 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 39.86%, 44.94%, and 23.35% respectively [8][11] Business Drivers - The cloud business is expected to continue driving growth, with cloud service revenue increasing over 150% year-on-year and GPU AI server revenue growing by more than 300% [6] - The company has improved its cost control capabilities, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios decreasing compared to the end of 2024 [6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the long-term expansion of AI, being closely tied to Nvidia, and is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years [8]