2025年A股最后一个交易日圆满收官。回望全年，市场交易活跃，"日成交超万亿"已成常态，结构 性"科技牛"行情贯穿始终，各大主要指数全线飘红，交出亮眼成绩单。其中，创业板指以近50%的年度 涨幅强势领跑；沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关，创下近十年新高；A股总市值跃升至近109万亿 元，年内新增近23万亿元，一举刷新历史纪录。 | 天普股份 sh605255 | 泊 | | | | + 自选 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 218.02 0.00(0.00%) | | | | | | | - 味分 | 张师价 239.82 | 量比 - | 总股本 1.34亿 | 成交量 -- 手 | | | 均价 218.02 | 跌停价 196.22 | 受比 - | 总市值 292.32亿 | 成交额 = | | | 看漫 - | 3日涨幅 +21.00% | 换手霉 0.00% | 每股净资产 6.0182 | 市盈率(静) 884.05 | | | 最近 = | 5日放幅 +40.12% | 云幅 0.00% | 流通股本 1.34亿 | 市盈率(TTM) ...

2025年A股最后一个交易日圆满收官。回望全年，市场交易活跃，"日成交超万亿"已成常态，结构性"科技牛"行情贯穿始终，各大主要指数全线飘红，交出 亮眼成绩单。其中，创业板指以近50%的年度涨幅强势领跑；沪指于10月28日一举突破4000点大关，创下近十年新高；A股总市值跃升至近109万亿元，年 内新增近23万亿元，一举刷新历史纪录。 从个股角度来看，2025年的十大牛股涨幅均超过500%。其中，上纬新材以1821%涨幅夺魁，天普股份以1662%涨幅位居第二，*ST宇顺（719%）、*ST亚振 （636%）紧随其后，胜宏科技（588%）排在第五。 十大牛股：科技方向全线爆发，最高涨幅超18倍 从个股涨幅角度来看，今年市场共有11股涨超500%。从领涨的个股属性上看，主要算力（天普股份、*ST宇顺、胜宏科技、鼎泰高科）题材占有四席，ST 股也有两只。 c 厕康社 2025年十大牛股 1. 上纬新材 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 127.37 513.8 机器人、化工新材料 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 1821% 2. 天普股份 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 292.3 218.02 ...

湘财证券发布研报称，AI大厂和全球互联网大厂投入巨额资本开支扩建数据中心，据Dell'Oro报告称， 到2029年全球数据中心资本支出的复合增长率将达到21%，AI大厂和互联网大厂的巨额资本开支计划将 推动算力集群持续扩容。算力扩容会同步放大"网络瓶颈"，使交换机从"配套件"变成提高数据中心性能 的"关键产能"，推动高速交换机需求快速增长。同时，AI服务器和高速交换机中的PCB层数不断增加， PCB使用的材料也不断升级，推动单机PCB价值量大幅提升。 湘财证券主要观点如下： Rubin架构量产有望推动PCB单机价值量提升 在10月底的GTC会议上，黄仁勋首次公开展示了Vera Rubin超级芯片，搭载了一颗代号Vera的CPU和两 颗体积庞大的Rubin GPU。在RubinUltra NVL576使用的Kyber架构中，将会应用正交背板技术，在 Switchtray、Midplane与CX9/CPX中，由多层PCB板代替铜缆直接连接。 同时，Rubin平台为实现低损耗与低延迟，全面升级制造材料，Switch Tray采用M8U等级材料(Low- Dk2+HVLP4)和24层HDI板设计，Midplane与C ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The demand for AI computing power is driving both the quantity and price of PCBs upward, with significant growth expected in the AI PCB market [8] - The introduction of the Rubin architecture is anticipated to enhance the value of PCBs in servers, with the value of a single server's PCB expected to more than double compared to previous generations [4] - The upgrade of data center switches is also contributing to the increase in PCB value, as the number of PCB layers and material quality are improving [5] - AI server and high-speed switch demand is projected to grow rapidly, driven by substantial capital expenditures from major AI and internet companies [6][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the electronic industry has shown a relative return of 21.9% compared to the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 37.7% [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a sustained recovery in consumer electronics, with new foldable smartphones being released and advancements in AI technology driving high demand for AI infrastructure [7][15] - The report emphasizes that the capital expenditure growth in data centers will lead to a compound annual growth rate of 21% by 2029, further supporting the expansion of computing power clusters [6][8]

当A股市场在美联储降息的迷雾中反复震荡，万亿市值的算力龙头工业富联正呈现出基本面与股价背离 的独特景观——一边是订单及算力需求持续拉升的硬核业绩支撑，一边是短期资金避险引发的震荡调 整。近期，工业富联股价在64-68元区间反复拉锯，这份波动究竟是风险信号还是布局良机？在降息"靴 子"落地的关键节点，这家全球AI算力基础设施的核心供应商，正值得投资者重新审视。 多重利好共振，算力需求进入爆发周期 当下的算力行业，正处于政策、技术、需求三重利好驱动的超级风口。政策端，全球主要经济体纷纷将 AI算力基础设施建设提升至战略高度，国内"东数西算"工程持续落地，企业级AI算力部署补贴政策频 出，为算力硬件需求提供了坚实保障。技术端，GPT-4o等大模型持续迭代，多模态应用加速渗透，推 动AI算力需求从训练端向推理端全面扩散，而边缘计算、智能驾驶等新场景的兴起，更让算力需求呈 现指数级增长态势。 需求端的爆发尤为直观：全球头部云服务商集体开启"算力军备竞赛"，微软为支撑Copilot生态持续扩建 智算中心，谷歌加码AI训练集群，国内字节、腾讯的智算中心项目也进入密集交付期。作为这些巨头 的核心供应商，工业富联正站在需求爆发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian issued a clarification statement denying rumors about lowering its fourth-quarter performance targets and adjustments from major clients, asserting that operations are proceeding as planned and customer demand remains strong [2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, with net profit surpassing 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.37 billion yuan, a growth of 62.04% [8]. - For the first three quarters of the year, the company achieved revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, up 38.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, an increase of 48.52% [8]. - The company's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters are close to last year's total, marking a historical high for the same period [8]. Business Segments - The AI server business showed significant growth, with cloud computing revenue increasing over 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters and over 75% in Q3, driven by the demand for AI cabinet products [8]. - Revenue from cloud service providers increased by over 150% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 revenue more than doubling compared to the previous year [8]. - The GPU AI server segment saw revenue growth exceeding 300% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a quarterly increase of over 90% and a year-on-year increase of over five times [8][9]. Market Reaction - On November 24, Industrial Fulian's stock price fell by 7.8% to 55.94 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 1.11 trillion yuan, despite a cumulative increase of 165.29% year-to-date [5].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced a significant decline, reaching a low of 54.6 CNY per share, with a closing price of 55.94 CNY, down 7.80% on November 24, 2023, and a total market value of 1.1 trillion CNY [2][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has seen a cumulative decline of over 15% in the last two trading days, marking a new low in nearly two months [2]. - The trading volume on November 24 reached 18.724 billion CNY [2]. Group 2: Market Rumors and Company Response - The unusual stock price fluctuation may be linked to rumors regarding a downward revision of AI server cabinet shipments and profits, with cabinet numbers adjusted to 80,000 and profit per cabinet declining due to competition from cloud service providers and Nvidia [6]. - Industrial Fulian has not officially responded to these rumors, but previously stated that there were no adjustments to orders or outlooks, and that project progress and delivery schedules remain normal [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3, Industrial Fulian reported record-high revenue of 243.17 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.37 billion CNY, up 62.04% [7][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 603.93 billion CNY, a 38.4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 22.49 billion CNY, up 48.52% [8]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - According to TrendForce, global capital expenditure by major cloud service providers is expected to grow by 65% in 2025, with a forecast of exceeding 600 billion USD in 2026, indicating strong long-term growth potential for AI infrastructure [9]. - Industrial Fulian anticipates that the overall shipment of AI servers will exceed previous expectations due to increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [9]. - The company expects positive support for its gross margin in Q4 due to declining unit costs and improved yield rates, with significant growth in its switch business driven by AI demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian's stock price has experienced a significant decline, reaching a low of 54.6 CNY per share, with a total market value of 1.1 trillion CNY, amid rumors regarding its AI server cabinet shipments and profit margins [2][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 24, Industrial Fulian's stock closed at 55.94 CNY per share, down 7.80%, with a trading volume of 18.724 billion CNY, marking a cumulative decline of over 15% in the past two trading days [2]. - The stock price has hit a new low in nearly two months, reflecting investor concerns [2]. Group 2: Market Rumors and Company Response - Recent rumors suggest a downward revision in the shipment volume of AI server cabinets to 80,000 units and a decline in profit per cabinet due to cloud service providers and Nvidia reclaiming more profitable segments of the server supply chain [6]. - Industrial Fulian has not officially responded to these rumors, maintaining that project progress and delivery schedules are normal [6][7]. Group 3: Business Performance and Outlook - In the third quarter, Industrial Fulian reported record-high revenue of 243.172 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and a net profit of 10.373 billion CNY, up 62.04% [7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 603.931 billion CNY, a 38.4% increase, and a net profit of 22.487 billion CNY, up 48.52%, nearing last year's total [9]. - The company anticipates continued growth in AI server shipments due to increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers, with expectations for improved gross margins in the fourth quarter driven by cost reductions and yield improvements [9][10]. Group 4: Product Development and Future Projections - Industrial Fulian is advancing multiple new products that enhance computing density, power efficiency, and system reliability, which are expected to drive growth in high-end AI server deliveries [7]. - The company expects the 800G product line to be a key driver of revenue in 2026, with significant growth anticipated in the switch business, which saw a 100% year-on-year increase in the third quarter [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100.0 RMB [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is poised to capitalize on the strong demand for AI infrastructure, achieving a balance between volume and profitability. The revenue from GPU AI servers is expected to continue its rapid growth, with Q3 revenue increasing over five times year-on-year and a strong outlook for Q4 [1][2]. - The company anticipates improvements in gross margin due to the ramp-up of new products, enhanced yield rates, and increased self-supply value of components. The outlook for Q4 remains optimistic, with expectations of significant revenue growth [1][3]. - The AI server and 800G switch businesses are experiencing exponential growth, with CSP AI server revenue expected to increase over four times year-on-year in Q4, and the 800G switch revenue projected to grow over 4.5 times [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase of over three times for CSP AI servers and over five times for GPU AI servers in Q3. For Q4, CSP AI server revenue is expected to grow over four times year-on-year, while GPU AI server revenue may also exceed five times growth [2][4]. - The overall cloud computing business, including AI servers, is projected to grow by 83.6%, 103.3%, and 24.5% in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with its contribution to total revenue increasing significantly [2][15]. Profitability and Margin - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 6.8%, consistent with the previous year. The company expects this margin to improve in Q4 due to successful product launches and cost efficiencies [3][5]. - Factors supporting margin improvement include successful mass production of new products, increased self-supply value of key components, and strong customer partnerships that enhance profitability [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a robust investment outlook for AI infrastructure, with North America's top five CSPs expected to invest over 390 billion USD in data centers by 2025. Global AI infrastructure capital expenditure is projected to exceed 1 trillion USD by 2030 [4][5]. - The company anticipates that the demand for 800G switches will continue to grow, with expectations of doubling shipment volumes annually, indicating a strong market for AI cluster construction [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 353.2 billion RMB, 550.1 billion RMB, and 627.8 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.78, 2.77, and 3.16 RMB [5][10]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 892.2 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.5% [10][15].

Core Insights - The company reported strong financial performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with a revenue increase of 38.40% year-on-year, reaching 603.93 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 48.52%, totaling 22.49 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.81%, and a net profit of 10.37 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 62.04% [1] - The company's gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was stable at 6.76%, while the net profit margin improved to 3.73%, up by 0.26 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Business Segments - The cloud computing segment showed robust growth, with revenue increasing over 65% year-on-year for the first three quarters, and over 75% in Q3 alone. The cloud service provider segment grew by over 150%, accounting for 70% of the cloud computing revenue [3] - The communication and mobile network equipment business also experienced steady growth, driven by increased demand for AI smart terminals and a significant rise in switch sales, with Q3 switch revenue growing by 100% year-on-year [3] Market Demand and Inventory - Strong demand for AI servers and the large-scale delivery of the GB200 series are driving the company's continued high growth. As of September 30, the company's contract liabilities reached 2.54 billion yuan, up 26.42% from June and 626.06% from the end of 2024, indicating strong customer order demand [2] - The company's inventory as of September 30 was 164.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.93% increase from June and a 93.12% increase from the end of 2024, suggesting a proactive approach to meet future order deliveries [2] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the strong demand for AI servers and is projected to hold a significant market share in the GB series servers. EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are 1.78, 2.79, and 3.75 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 42.3, 27.0, and 20.1 times [4]