证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 07 月 11 日 工业富联（601138.SH） 归母净利润增速亮眼，AI 服务器云计算持续放量 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 476,340 | 609,135 | 773,193 | 952,747 | 1,155,064 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -6.9 | 27.9 | 26.9 | 23.2 | 21.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 21,040 | 23,216 | 30,785 | 35,310 | 41,622 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 4.8 | 10.3 | 32.6 | 14.7 | 17.9 | | ROE（%） | 14.9 | 15.2 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.5 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 1.06 | 1.17 | 1.55 | 1.78 | 2.10 | | P/E（倍） | 25.1 | 22.8 | 17.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple industry leaders have reported positive earnings forecasts for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - A total of 107 companies have released their earnings data, with 83 companies showing positive forecasts, including profit increases and turnaround from losses [1]. - Among the companies, 61 are expected to achieve net profits exceeding 100 million yuan, accounting for nearly 60% of the total [2]. - Notable companies with significant profit forecasts include Industrial Fulian, Lixun Precision, and Xinhecheng, all expected to exceed 1 billion yuan in net profits [2][3]. Group 2: Specific Company Performance - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 67.27 billion to 69.27 billion yuan for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.72% to 52.11% [2]. - Lixun Precision expects a profit of 64.75 billion to 67.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20% to 25% [3]. - Xinhecheng forecasts a net profit of 33 billion to 37.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% [3]. Group 3: Exceptional Growth - 24 companies are projected to double their net profits, with Huayin Power showing the highest increase, expecting a profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, a staggering growth of 3600.7% to 4423.07% [4]. - Other companies like Shengnong Development and Whirlpool are also expected to see significant profit increases, with some exceeding 400% growth [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - Companies that have released positive earnings forecasts have seen an average stock price increase of 27.03% this year, outperforming the broader market [5]. - Huayin Power has experienced the highest stock price increase of 160.77%, while other companies like Bangji Technology have also seen substantial gains [5]. Group 5: Financing Trends - Since July, there has been an influx of financing into companies with positive earnings forecasts, with 49 stocks receiving net purchases [6]. - Xiaoshangpin City has received the highest net purchase amount of 373 million yuan, with an expected profit increase of 12.57% to 17.40% [6].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月09日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3497 | 0.70 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10588 | 1.47 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 3998 | 0.84 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2181 | 2.39 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | -0.02 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6947 | 0.12 | 0.16 | | | | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | | | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24148 | 1.09 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8709 | 1.16 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22362 | -0.30 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44406 | -0.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing strong growth in AI server revenue, with a year-on-year increase of over 60%, and is continuously improving its market share [2][6]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.96-12.16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.84%-39.12% [5][10]. - The cloud computing business is seeing rapid growth, with overall segment revenue increasing by over 50% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by strong demand for AI data center products [6][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - As of July 7, 2025, the company's stock price is 23.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 476.23 billion yuan [4]. - The company's performance over the past year shows an 18.1% increase over the last month and a 39.8% increase over the last three months [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 888.83 billion yuan in 2025, 1,203.52 billion yuan in 2026, and 1,582.51 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 30.24 billion yuan, 39.48 billion yuan, and 49.40 billion yuan respectively [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 46% in 2025, 35% in 2026, and 31% in 2027 [9]. Business Segments Cloud Computing - The AI server segment is expected to account for over 50% of total server revenue, with significant growth in GPU module shipments [6][10]. - The company has seen a 1.5 times increase in revenue from cloud service provider servers compared to the same period last year [6]. Network Communications - The company’s 800G switch revenue in Q2 2025 reached three times that of the entire year of 2024, driven by increasing AI demand [7]. - The precision component business is also experiencing steady growth, supported by strong sales of high-end AI products [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 35.60, up from the previous RMB 30.00 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 119.58 to 121.58 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.84% to 39.12%. The second quarter of 2025 is projected to see a net profit of RMB 67.27 to 69.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 47.72% to 52.11% [1][4]. - The growth is primarily driven by the accelerated shipment of the GB200 server and the ramp-up of 800G switches, indicating a strong performance in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Business - In Q2 2025, the company's cloud computing revenue grew significantly, increasing by over 50% year-on-year. AI server revenue surged by more than 60%, while revenue from cloud service provider servers more than doubled [2]. - The growth is attributed to the large-scale shipment of the GB200 series AI chips/servers and increasing demand for AI cabinet products from cloud service providers [2]. Communication and Network Equipment Business - The communication and mobile network equipment segment saw steady growth, particularly in the smartphone metal frame business due to strong sales of high-end and budget AI models [3]. - The revenue from 800G switches reached three times the total revenue for 2024, driven by rising AI demand and an improving product mix [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be RMB 303 billion, with expected growth rates of 30.3%, 24.1%, and 20.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.52, RMB 1.89, and RMB 2.27 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10].

2025 年 7 月 8 日 | 29.0 | | --- | | 朱吉翔 C0044@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) | 公司基本资讯 C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 工业富联(601138.SH) 买入（BUY） | 产业别 | | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/7/7) | | 23.98 | | 上证指数(2025/7/7) | | 3473.13 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 28.67/14.58 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 19859.47 | | A 股数(百万) | | 19858.18 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 4761.99 | | 主要股东 | | China Galaxy | | | | Enterprises | | | | Limited(36.72% | | | | ) | | 每股净值(元) | | 7.91 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 3.03 | | 一个月 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 工业富联(601138) | 投资评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 买入 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 工业富联 2024 年报及 2025 年第一季 度报告点评：全面受益 AI 浪潮推进， 多元引擎共促成长 工业富联：AI 相关收入成长显著，公 司正处发展黄金期 工业富联三季报点评：AI 产业链核心 卡位，静待 GB200 花开 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 工业富联 25H1 业绩预告点评：Q2 归母净利 润同比增长约 50%，AI 业务持续释放业绩 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 08 日 [Table_S 事件： 7um ...

从业务构成深入剖析，2024年工业富联的增长主要由云计算业务强力拉动。该业务全年营业收入高达 3193.77亿元，同比增长64.37%，在公司整体营业收入中的占比首次超过五成。其中，AI服务器营收同 比增幅超过150%，占云计算业务营收比例突破四成。 相比之下，通信及移动业务增长有所放缓，2024年实现营业收入2878.98亿元，同比仅增长3.2%。 7月7日，工业富联发布公告，预计第二季度实现归母净利润67.27亿元至69.27亿元，同比增长幅度达 47.72%至52.11%；上半年实现归母净利润119.58亿元至121.58亿元，同比增长36.84%至39.12%。 强劲的业绩预期对工业富联股价产生了显著影响。7月8日，工业富联股价高开3.75%，截至发稿已涨 停，市值达5239亿。 公告中明确指出，本期业绩预增主要归功于云计算业务在第二季度实现了迅猛增长。云计算业务整体营 业收入相较于去年同期增长超过50%，其中，AI服务器营业收入同比增长超过60%，云服务商服务器 营业收入更是同比大幅增长超过1.5倍。 此外，通讯及移动网络设备业务也保持了稳健增长态势，在高速交换机领域，第二季度800G交换机的 营业 ...

工业富联（601138）2025 年半年报预告点评 强推（维持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 AI 服务器&光模块业务高增，25Q2 业绩超 预期 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 609,135 | 767,554 | 949,776 | 1,196,683 | | 同比增速(%) | 27.9% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 26.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 23,216 | 30,035 | 36,082 | 42,961 | | 同比增速(%) | 10.3% | 29.4% | 20.1% | 19.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.17 | 1.51 | 1.82 | 2.16 | | 市盈率(倍) | 21 | 16 | 13 | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 ...

据公告，公司云计算业务在二季度实现高速增长，整体板块营业收入较去年同期增长超过50%。产品结 构持续优化，产品量产加速爬坡，客户对AI数据中心Hyper-scale AI机柜产品需求不断增加。其中，AI 服务器营业收入较去年同期增长超过60%，云服务商服务器的营业收入较去年同期增长超过1.5倍。公 司在大客户的核心产品份额继续保持领先优势，先进AI算力的GPU模块及GPU算力板等产品的出货， 在第二季实现显著增长。 通讯及移动网络设备业务方面，公司锚定智能制造与AI融合的发展机遇，依托前沿技术研发实力，持 续加码核心产品的技术研发投入，推动该业务实现稳健增长。 公告称，公司云计算业务在二季度实现高速增长，整体板块营业收入较去年同期增长超过50%。 7月7日，工业富联发布2025年半年度业绩预告，预计上半年实现归母净利润119.58亿元—121.58亿元， 同比上升36.84%到39.12%；预计第二季度实现归母净利润67.27亿元到69.27亿元，同比上升47.72%— 52.11%，均创下同期历史新高。 高速交换机方面，在AI需求持续提升的驱动下，公司产品结构持续改善，二季度800G交换机的营业收 入达20 ...