Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is expressing strong rhetoric against China regarding rare earth exports, but internal divisions and dependencies may hinder any substantial action against China [1][5][40]. Group 1: EU's Response to China's Rare Earth Export Controls - The EU's aggressive stance follows China's tightening of rare earth export controls in early October, with French President labeling it as "economic coercion" and urging the EU to utilize its "anti-coercion tool" [5][40]. - The EU's "anti-coercion tool" requires the agreement of 15 member states representing 65% of the population to activate, but it has never been used, indicating a lack of real commitment [5][17]. - The EU's reliance on China for rare earth materials is significant, with 90% of its rare earth magnets imported from China, leading to potential self-harm if tensions escalate [7][11]. Group 2: Internal Divisions within the EU - Internal discord is evident, with France advocating for a tough stance while Germany is reluctant to support aggressive measures due to its economic ties with China [9][15]. - Germany's automotive industry heavily relies on the Chinese market, making it cautious about any actions that could disrupt trade [11][13]. - Eastern European countries are also concerned about energy and market access, further complicating a unified EU response [15][17]. Group 3: Semiconductor Issues and Dutch Actions - The Netherlands has exacerbated tensions by invoking Cold War-era laws to take control of a Chinese-owned semiconductor company, citing national security [19][23]. - The semiconductor company, formerly part of Philips, holds a significant market share in automotive components, raising concerns for European car manufacturers about supply chain disruptions [21][25]. - China's swift response to restrict exports of specific components from the semiconductor company has left European carmakers anxious about potential production halts [25][27]. Group 4: China's Position and Negotiation Prospects - China maintains a steady stance, asserting that its export controls are standard practices and not aimed at any specific country, aligning with international norms [29][30]. - China's dominance in rare earth production, with 92.3% of global refining capacity, poses challenges for the EU in finding alternative suppliers [32][34]. - Upcoming negotiations between China and the EU are expected to address multiple issues, including rare earth exports and the semiconductor situation, highlighting the need for a balanced approach [36][38]. Group 5: Conclusion on Future Relations - The EU's contradictory position of wanting to impose countermeasures while simultaneously seeking concessions from China reflects its internal conflicts and dependency issues [40][42]. - The importance of cooperation over confrontation is emphasized, as both sides have interlinked supply chains that could lead to mutual harm if tensions escalate [42][44].