Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for MTR Corporation [2][6] Core Insights - MTR Corporation has established itself as the core operator of Hong Kong's rail transit since its inception in 1975, with a significant focus on local line construction and expansion into international markets [5][16] - The "Rail + Property" development model allows MTR to finance railway projects through land development rights granted by the government, which is expected to drive long-term growth as the Hong Kong real estate market recovers [5][47] - The company has a progressive dividend policy, with expected dividends per share increasing from HKD 1.06 in 2015 to HKD 1.31 in 2024, maintaining dividends even during losses [5][43] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for MTR Corporation are as follows: - 2023: HKD 56,982 million - 2024: HKD 60,011 million - 2025E: HKD 57,117 million - 2026E: HKD 55,584 million - 2027E: HKD 58,152 million - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023: HKD 7,784 million - 2024: HKD 15,772 million - 2025E: HKD 16,203 million - 2026E: HKD 20,166 million - 2027E: HKD 10,138 million - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 4.4% from 2025 to 2027 [4][6] Business Model and Operations - MTR Corporation operates under a "Rail + Property" model, which integrates railway operations with property development to fund infrastructure projects [5][47] - The company is actively involved in multiple new railway and station projects to enhance connectivity in densely populated areas of Hong Kong [51][52] - The Hong Kong rail operations are expected to see a recovery in passenger numbers, with total passenger volume projected to reach 1.953 billion in 2024, recovering towards pre-pandemic levels [79] Valuation and Target Price - The estimated enterprise value of MTR Corporation is HKD 2,766 billion, with a 20% discount applied due to diversified operations, leading to a target equity value of HKD 2,213 billion [6] - The target price is set at HKD 35.55 per share, indicating a potential upside of 19% from the current market value [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 61.02 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan for the third quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.53% in net profit [6][19]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 168.41 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.19 billion yuan [6]. - The company’s toll revenue for the first three quarters reached 78.77 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.08% [8]. - Investment income for the first three quarters was 9.72 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.64% year-on-year [9]. Operational Highlights - The company implemented a centralized operation model, saving costs by 4.41 million yuan through the promotion of 21 groups of "non-stationed auxiliary stations" and 86 toll stations [7]. - The company achieved a 99.94% all-weather traffic rate by enhancing control over key road sections and stations [7]. - The company successfully won the management project for the Tuerhe Grand Bridge, marking a significant step in external operational management [7]. Segment Performance - In the rail transit sector, the company reported a revenue of 39.53 billion yuan, up 11.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.3% [11]. - The Qilu Expressway segment saw a revenue of 17.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 61.58% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in construction business revenue [12]. - The Information Group generated a revenue of 24.37 billion yuan, down 2.32% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15.97% to 1.67 billion yuan [13]. Key Projects - Ongoing projects include the expansion of the Jingtai Expressway and the full closure construction of the Weifang section of the Rongwei Expressway [14].

Core Points - The Guangdong Provincial People's Congress has passed the "Regulations on Promoting the Development of Rail Transit in the Nine Cities of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," which will take effect on January 1, 2026. This is the first local regulation in China focusing on the integration of local railways and urban rail transit [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The regulation mandates the Guangdong provincial government to coordinate major planning matters related to rail transit development in the Greater Bay Area, ensuring the integration of different regions and lines [1]. - It emphasizes the need for a multi-layered rail transit network layout and the facilitation of convenient transfers between rail transit and other transportation modes, including air and road [1]. Group 2: Safety and Environmental Measures - The regulation allows rail transit operators to suspend operations in case of natural disasters, severe weather, or major safety incidents, and requires timely public notifications through various channels [2]. - It addresses environmental concerns by mandating construction units to implement noise pollution prevention measures in accordance with national and provincial regulations [2]. Group 3: Coordination with Hong Kong and Macao - The regulation supports the integration and coordination of rail transit projects with Hong Kong and Macao, including the reservation of space for future connections in planning [2]. - It encourages improved communication and operational coordination with Hong Kong and Macao to enhance service quality, including ticketing services for cross-border travel [2].