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人力资源服务行业专题:经营复苏动能积聚,AI 破局龙头重估
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-06 06:35
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the human resources service industry [1][5]. Core Insights - The human resources service industry is experiencing a robust growth momentum, with the market size expected to increase from approximately 27.6 trillion yuan in 2023 to 50.3 trillion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of about 12.7% [1][14]. - The industry is characterized by a steady increase in concentration, with the top three players holding a market share of 20.7% and the top five players at 21.3% in 2023, up from 19.4% and 19.0% respectively in 2019 [1][15]. - The report highlights three main segments within the industry: recruitment services, outsourcing services, and software and consulting training, with outsourcing services showing the highest growth potential [2][18]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The human resources service market is projected to grow significantly, driven by favorable policies and the increasing demand for services from expanding enterprises [14][15]. - The market is becoming more concentrated as leading firms leverage brand effects, economies of scale, and technological innovations to enhance competitive barriers [15][16]. Segment Analysis - Recruitment services are expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2%, with online recruitment and recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) leading the growth [21][22]. - Outsourcing services are the fastest-growing segment, with a projected CAGR of 13.9%, driven by the demand for flexible labor and business process outsourcing [24][25]. - Software and consulting training services are expected to grow at a more modest CAGR of 5.8%, with HR SaaS solutions showing significant growth potential [27][28]. Growth Drivers - The report identifies three key growth drivers: the increasing penetration of flexible employment, the cyclical nature of recruitment services, and the efficiency gains from AI technology [29][30]. - The rise of new employment forms, such as gig workers, is expected to contribute to the growth of outsourcing services as compliance and labor relations improve [32][33]. - The recruitment business is anticipated to rebound as economic conditions stabilize, with government targets for GDP growth and job creation supporting this recovery [36][34]. Company Insights - Key players such as 科锐国际 (Career International), 北京人力 (FESCO), and BOSS 直聘 (BOSS Zhipin) are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth prospects [41][47]. - 科锐国际 is focusing on AI technology to enhance recruitment efficiency and reduce costs, with a projected revenue growth of 20.6% in 2024 [44][46]. - 北京人力 is leveraging AI to improve operational efficiency and has a strong client base, including major companies like Huawei and Alibaba [47][53].