可奇怪的是，2024年我国硬生生花了3717亿，进口了5.43亿吨煤炭。家里明明堆着海量煤炭，为啥还要 往外掏真金白银买？ 新疆准东煤田的储量能让人大吃一惊，足足3900亿吨，还是全球最大的整装煤田。按咱们国家的用煤规 模，这简直是"家底殷实"到让人羡慕。 运费比煤价还贵 准东煤田的煤确实拿得出手，硫含量大多小于1%，发热量在5500到6500千卡之间，烧起来污染小，不 管是发电还是气化都合适。更关键的是，矿口价才300元一吨，单看这个数字，真心划算到没朋友。但 有个绕不开的死结——这煤田的位置太偏了。 它藏在新疆西北，古尔班通古特沙漠北边，周边经济条件一般，交通线路少得可怜。咱们国家的用煤大 户，比如电厂、钢厂，大多扎堆在东部和沿海地区。从准东到秦皇岛，直线距离就超3000公里，这路途 远得能让人望而却步。 光运费就够吓人，一吨煤运费得400元。就算运费下调20%，也得320元。这么一算，一吨新疆煤运到东 部，总价直接超620元。反观进口煤，比如印尼煤，运到广东沿海才217元一吨，差价快三倍了。 换做是你当厂长，一边是600多块的新疆煤，一边是200多块的进口煤，用脚想也知道选便宜的。毕竟企 业要算账，真金 ...

Group 1 - The trend of shrinking imported coal volume is slowing down, with a marginal improvement in year-on-year negative growth and a month-on-month positive growth in July [1][2] - In July, the total imported coal price was $67 per ton, continuing a year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month decrease of $6.23 per ton [1] - Domestic coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to an increase in imported coal demand due to domestic supply gaps [2] Group 2 - The increase in import volume has not led to a rise in import prices, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved [3] - The expectation of coal demand remains uncertain due to recent domestic "anti-involution" initiatives and the stable growth outlook for various downstream industries [3] - Companies to watch for potential performance recovery in the coal sector include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, and Luan Environmental Energy, among others [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities recently released coal import data indicating a contraction in import volumes, with a cumulative decline of 13% from January to July. Although July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94%, there was a month-on-month increase of 7.78%, suggesting a marginal easing of the negative growth trend [1][2]. Data Breakdown - The cumulative import volume from January to July has decreased by 13%, continuing a contraction trend. July marked the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year negative growth, but the rate of decline is slowing, with a 22.94% drop year-on-year and a 7.78% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - All coal types are experiencing year-on-year negative growth, but only anthracite coal shows a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [2]. - The average import price for all coal types is $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year. In July, the price decreased by $6.23 month-on-month, with significant year-on-year declines across all coal types [2]. Commentary and Investment Suggestions - Domestic supply shortages are driving import demand, with July's internal trade coal prices stabilizing and rebounding. Domestic raw coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, which has somewhat boosted the demand for imported coal [3]. - Future import increases remain uncertain. Despite a rise in import volumes, prices have not increased correspondingly, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved. The divergence between domestic and imported coal prices may influence future import trends [3]. - The company suggests monitoring coal stocks as prices continue to rise unexpectedly, with potential performance recovery for companies like Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others. Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua still hold high investment value [3].