Group 1 - The trend of shrinking imported coal volume is slowing down, with a marginal improvement in year-on-year negative growth and a month-on-month positive growth in July [1][2] - In July, the total imported coal price was $67 per ton, continuing a year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month decrease of $6.23 per ton [1] - Domestic coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to an increase in imported coal demand due to domestic supply gaps [2] Group 2 - The increase in import volume has not led to a rise in import prices, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved [3] - The expectation of coal demand remains uncertain due to recent domestic "anti-involution" initiatives and the stable growth outlook for various downstream industries [3] - Companies to watch for potential performance recovery in the coal sector include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, and Luan Environmental Energy, among others [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities recently released coal import data indicating a contraction in import volumes, with a cumulative decline of 13% from January to July. Although July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94%, there was a month-on-month increase of 7.78%, suggesting a marginal easing of the negative growth trend [1][2]. Data Breakdown - The cumulative import volume from January to July has decreased by 13%, continuing a contraction trend. July marked the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year negative growth, but the rate of decline is slowing, with a 22.94% drop year-on-year and a 7.78% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - All coal types are experiencing year-on-year negative growth, but only anthracite coal shows a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [2]. - The average import price for all coal types is $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year. In July, the price decreased by $6.23 month-on-month, with significant year-on-year declines across all coal types [2]. Commentary and Investment Suggestions - Domestic supply shortages are driving import demand, with July's internal trade coal prices stabilizing and rebounding. Domestic raw coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, which has somewhat boosted the demand for imported coal [3]. - Future import increases remain uncertain. Despite a rise in import volumes, prices have not increased correspondingly, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved. The divergence between domestic and imported coal prices may influence future import trends [3]. - The company suggests monitoring coal stocks as prices continue to rise unexpectedly, with potential performance recovery for companies like Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others. Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua still hold high investment value [3].