煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 投资要点： 数据拆解： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价下降。进口量方面，1-8 月累计增 速实现-12.2%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势；尽管 8 月当月同比连续 6 个月保持负增速，但同比负增速持续边际放缓、环比呈现增长幅度扩大，其 中 8 月进口煤同比降 6.76%、环比增 20.02%。分煤种来看，所有煤种环比均 为正增长，同比方面动力煤和炼焦煤维持负增长。动力煤环比增量主要来印 尼、澳大利亚、俄罗斯；炼焦煤环比增量主要来自外蒙古；褐煤环比增量主 要来自印度尼西亚；无烟煤环比增量主要来自俄罗斯。价格方面，8 月当月 全煤种进口价格实现 66 美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，8 月当月环比降低-0.84 美元/吨。分煤种看，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，8 月当 月炼焦煤进口价格环比小幅增加。 相关报告： 点评与投资建议： 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 8 月 ： 供 给 收 缩 ， 煤 价 超 预 期 上 涨 国内缺口继续提振进口需求。8 月内贸煤价格先涨后跌，国内原煤产量 同比维持收缩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities recently released coal import data indicating a contraction in import volumes, with a cumulative decline of 13% from January to July. Although July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94%, there was a month-on-month increase of 7.78%, suggesting a marginal easing of the negative growth trend [1][2]. Data Breakdown - The cumulative import volume from January to July has decreased by 13%, continuing a contraction trend. July marked the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year negative growth, but the rate of decline is slowing, with a 22.94% drop year-on-year and a 7.78% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - All coal types are experiencing year-on-year negative growth, but only anthracite coal shows a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [2]. - The average import price for all coal types is $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year. In July, the price decreased by $6.23 month-on-month, with significant year-on-year declines across all coal types [2]. Commentary and Investment Suggestions - Domestic supply shortages are driving import demand, with July's internal trade coal prices stabilizing and rebounding. Domestic raw coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, which has somewhat boosted the demand for imported coal [3]. - Future import increases remain uncertain. Despite a rise in import volumes, prices have not increased correspondingly, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved. The divergence between domestic and imported coal prices may influence future import trends [3]. - The company suggests monitoring coal stocks as prices continue to rise unexpectedly, with potential performance recovery for companies like Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others. Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua still hold high investment value [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal sector, indicating expected performance leading the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume has shown a slowing trend of contraction, with a cumulative decrease of 13% from January to July 2025. Despite a continuous negative growth rate for five months, July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94% but a month-on-month increase of 7.78% [1][3]. - The overall import price for coal types averaged $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of $6.23 in July [1]. - Domestic coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to an increase in import demand due to a domestic supply gap [3]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The report highlights that all coal types have shown negative year-on-year growth, with only anthracite coal experiencing a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [1][3]. Price Trends - The report notes that the import prices for all coal types have significantly decreased compared to the previous year, with July showing a downward trend across all categories [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there is an increase in import volume, the prices have not risen correspondingly, indicating a potential imbalance in the overseas supply-demand structure. The future demand for coal remains uncertain due to domestic economic conditions and the impact of the "anti-involution" campaign [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal stocks that are expected to recover in performance due to rising coal prices, highlighting companies such as Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanxi Coking Coal as key investment targets [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's coal and lignite imports totaled 33.037 million tons, a decrease from 36.04 million tons in May [1] Group 1 - China's coal and lignite imports in June were 33.037 million tons [1] - The imports in May were recorded at 36.04 million tons, indicating a decline [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]