煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 相关报告： 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月：煤价环比上涨，反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 观察与展望 2025.12.5 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 未来印尼进口煤存在继续减量预期。2025 年 12 月，印尼财政部长普尔 巴亚·尤迪·萨德瓦（Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa）证实，政府确实计划于明年起征 收煤炭出口关税，并预计关税税率将在 1-5%之间。但印尼当地媒体仍在等 待煤炭出口关税相关技术法规。考虑到印尼存在政策收紧预期，未来印尼煤 对华出口或存在减量预期。 建议关注：反内卷趋势未变，4 季度业绩仍有改善预期，若价格长期高 位运行，26 年业绩仍具备修复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。 动力煤关注【兖矿能源】、【陕西煤业】、【中国神华】、【中煤能源】、【山煤国 际】、【晋控煤业】；炼焦煤关注【山西焦煤】、【淮北矿业】、【潞安环能】。 风险提示：国内需求不及预期，国内供给显著增加，国际煤价大幅下跌 25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025 年 12 月 ...

智通财经APP获悉，山西证券发布研报称，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，11月当月各 煤种价格均环比增加，其中动力煤环比涨幅相对更大。煤炭行业反内卷趋势未变，4季度业绩仍有改善 预期，若价格长期高位运行，26年业绩仍具备修复空间。股价下跌强化红利价值，可逢低配置。 山西证券主要观点如下： 进口煤量收缩趋势继续放缓，进口价上涨 进口量方面，1-11月累计增速实现-12.0%，累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;进口煤当月同比连续9个月 保持负增速，其中11月进口煤同比降19.88%、环比增5.53%。分煤种来看，四大煤种均呈现单月环比正 增，其中无烟煤环比增速较快。动力煤环比小幅增量主要是因为蒙古和俄罗斯进口量增加;炼焦煤环比 小幅增量主要由蒙古贡献;褐煤环比增量主要由印度尼西亚贡献;无烟煤环比增量主要来自俄罗斯。价格 方面，11月当月全煤种进口价格实现73美元/吨，维持同比回落趋势，11月当月环比增1.42美元/吨。分 煤种看，全煤种进口价格较去年同期均有较大幅度下降，11月当月各煤种价格均环比增加，其中动力煤 环比涨幅相对更大。 11月国内进口煤呈现"量减价增"的特征。过去几年11月往往是进口煤旺季，进 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, coal prices significantly declined, leading to a return of sector profitability to the lowest levels in the past decade. However, the outlook for 2026 suggests potential demand improvement and limited supply capacity utilization, which may lead to a recovery in coal price levels [2][5][6]. - The report emphasizes that with a clear supply-demand improvement and the presence of both defensive and offensive investment opportunities, the likelihood of success for selected stocks is high. If demand is strong and coal prices improve beyond expectations, attention should be given to currently undervalued stocks with low liquidity and lower profit margins [2][7]. Industry Overview - The coal industry faced a challenging year in 2025, with thermal coal prices dropping from 855 CNY/ton in 2024 to 697 CNY/ton, an 18% decrease. The profitability of the sector fell to the 30th percentile of the past decade due to weak demand driven by warm weather and sluggish manufacturing electricity consumption [5][16]. - Coking coal prices also saw a significant decline, dropping 26% from 2024's 2022 CNY/ton to 1502 CNY/ton, with profitability at the 10th percentile of the past decade. This was primarily due to strong supply, with a 1.5% year-on-year increase in coking coal supply in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][16]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - For thermal coal in 2026, demand improvement is anticipated, with limited supply growth expected. The report identifies three key questions regarding market resilience: whether negative growth in thermal power will become the norm, if domestic supply can be controlled, and whether rising coal prices will increase imports [6][30]. - The report suggests that the central government's focus on controlling "involution" competition will continue to limit supply growth in 2026, despite some new production capacity coming online. Long-term resource depletion may also exert upward pressure on domestic coal prices [6][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for investment in the coal sector in 2026, highlighting the potential for a bottom reversal. It suggests that the timing for investment should align with capital flows, particularly in the first quarter when there is often a demand for increased allocation to dividend-paying sectors [7][30]. - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to benefit from a recovery in coal prices to a range of 750-800 CNY/ton. Additionally, stocks with significant growth potential and low valuations, such as Huayang Co. and Jinkong Coal Industry, are highlighted as potential targets if demand and price improvements exceed expectations [7][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal sector, indicating expected performance to lead the market [1][4]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a contraction trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down. In September, the year-on-year decline in coal imports was 3.34%, while the month-on-month increase was 7.63%. The average import price for all coal types in September was $68 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - Domestic coal prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight increase in September, which is expected to support import demand due to the existing domestic supply gap. The report anticipates that the price difference between domestic and imported coal will continue to expand, potentially boosting import volumes [5][6]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - From January to September, the cumulative growth rate of coal imports was -11.1%, indicating a continued contraction. However, the negative growth rate is marginally slowing down, with specific increases in certain coal types [4]. - The report highlights that the increase in imported coal in September was primarily driven by thermal coal from Indonesia and coking coal from Russia and Australia [4]. Price Trends - The report notes that the average import price for coal types has decreased significantly compared to the previous year, with a slight month-on-month increase observed in September [4][6]. - The report suggests that the price dynamics are influenced by domestic demand, which is expected to support higher import prices moving forward [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism for investment opportunities in the coal sector for the fourth quarter, suggesting that the sector may outperform the third quarter. It recommends focusing on companies with higher elasticity in their stock performance [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Jin Kong Coal Industry, Shan Coal International, and Huayang Co., with a particular emphasis on coking coal producers like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume continues to show a slowing contraction trend, with a cumulative decrease of 12.2% from January to August 2025. However, the negative growth rate has been marginally slowing down, with August showing a year-on-year decline of 6.76% but a month-on-month increase of 20.02% [3][4]. - The average import price for all coal types in August was $66 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline, with a slight month-on-month decrease of $0.84 per ton [3][4]. - Domestic coal production remains in a contraction phase year-on-year, but there is a slight month-on-month increase. The domestic supply gap continues to support import demand [4]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The report highlights that all coal types experienced positive month-on-month growth in August, although thermal coal and coking coal maintained negative year-on-year growth. The increase in thermal coal imports primarily came from Indonesia, Australia, and Russia, while coking coal imports were mainly from Mongolia [3][4]. Price Trends - The report notes that the import price for coking coal saw a slight month-on-month increase, while all other coal types experienced significant year-on-year price declines [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the price gap between domestic and imported coal may continue to drive import volumes, especially if domestic supply remains constrained. The anticipated demand during the "golden September and silver October" period is expected to support price rebounds if supply disruptions occur [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Securities recently released coal import data indicating a contraction in import volumes, with a cumulative decline of 13% from January to July. Although July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94%, there was a month-on-month increase of 7.78%, suggesting a marginal easing of the negative growth trend [1][2]. Data Breakdown - The cumulative import volume from January to July has decreased by 13%, continuing a contraction trend. July marked the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year negative growth, but the rate of decline is slowing, with a 22.94% drop year-on-year and a 7.78% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - All coal types are experiencing year-on-year negative growth, but only anthracite coal shows a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [2]. - The average import price for all coal types is $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year. In July, the price decreased by $6.23 month-on-month, with significant year-on-year declines across all coal types [2]. Commentary and Investment Suggestions - Domestic supply shortages are driving import demand, with July's internal trade coal prices stabilizing and rebounding. Domestic raw coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, which has somewhat boosted the demand for imported coal [3]. - Future import increases remain uncertain. Despite a rise in import volumes, prices have not increased correspondingly, indicating that the overseas supply-demand structure has not significantly improved. The divergence between domestic and imported coal prices may influence future import trends [3]. - The company suggests monitoring coal stocks as prices continue to rise unexpectedly, with potential performance recovery for companies like Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others. Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua still hold high investment value [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal sector, indicating expected performance leading the market [1]. Core Insights - The coal import volume has shown a slowing trend of contraction, with a cumulative decrease of 13% from January to July 2025. Despite a continuous negative growth rate for five months, July saw a year-on-year decrease of 22.94% but a month-on-month increase of 7.78% [1][3]. - The overall import price for coal types averaged $67 per ton, continuing a downward trend year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of $6.23 in July [1]. - Domestic coal production has contracted both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to an increase in import demand due to a domestic supply gap [3]. Summary by Sections Import Data Analysis - The report highlights that all coal types have shown negative year-on-year growth, with only anthracite coal experiencing a month-on-month decline. The increase in coking coal imports is primarily from Mongolia and Russia, while thermal coal imports are mainly from Australia, and lignite imports are from Indonesia [1][3]. Price Trends - The report notes that the import prices for all coal types have significantly decreased compared to the previous year, with July showing a downward trend across all categories [1]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there is an increase in import volume, the prices have not risen correspondingly, indicating a potential imbalance in the overseas supply-demand structure. The future demand for coal remains uncertain due to domestic economic conditions and the impact of the "anti-involution" campaign [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal stocks that are expected to recover in performance due to rising coal prices, highlighting companies such as Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal Industry, and Shanxi Coking Coal as key investment targets [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - In June, China's coal and lignite imports totaled 33.037 million tons, a decrease from 36.04 million tons in May [1] Group 1 - China's coal and lignite imports in June were 33.037 million tons [1] - The imports in May were recorded at 36.04 million tons, indicating a decline [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]