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25年7月进口煤量收缩趋势放缓,未来增量有待观察 | 投研报告
点评与投资建议: 国内缺口带动进口需求。7月反内卷带动内贸煤价企稳反弹,国内原煤产量同比和环比 均出现收缩走势,国内缺口在一定程度上提振了进口煤需求。结构上看,炼焦煤已经在6月 出现变化,7月随着旺季到来动力煤和褐煤跟随炼焦煤走势,但无烟煤仍然呈加速收缩趋 势。 未来进口增量有待观察。尽管进口量有所增加,但进口价格并没有随着增量所带 动。"量增价减"特征或在一定程度上释放了海外供需结构并没有显著改善的信号。考虑近期 国内"反内卷"号召和煤炭下游诸多行业的稳增长预期,后续煤炭需求端预期仍有不确定性。 内贸煤和进口煤价差的背离是否将继续带动进口量回暖有待观察。 建议关注:随着煤价不断超预期上涨,煤炭股业绩修复可期。重点关注【华阳股份】、 【晋控煤业】、【山煤国际】、【潞安环能】、【山西焦煤】、【平煤股份】、【淮北矿 业】等弹性标的;【陕西煤业】、【中煤能源】、【中国神华】等龙头煤企配置价值仍高。 山西证券近日发布煤炭进口数据拆解:进口量方面,1-7月累计增速实现-13%,累计进 口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;尽管7月当月同比连续5个月保持负增速,但同比负增速出现边际 放缓走势、环比呈现正增长,其中7月进口煤同比降22. ...
煤炭进口数据拆解:25年7月进口煤量收缩趋势放缓,未来增量有待观察
Shanxi Securities· 2025-08-26 02:49
煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】7 月:供给收缩,反内卷或 带来"温和风暴"-煤炭月度供需数据点 评 2025.8.18 【山证煤炭】煤炭行业动态点评:长协 倒挂解除,煤价预期再次提升 2025.8.7 分析师: 资料来源:最闻 首选股票 评级 胡博 执业登记编码:S0760522090003 邮箱:hubo1@sxzq.com 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 25 年 7 月进口煤量收缩趋势放缓,未来增量有待观察 2025 年 8 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点: 数据拆解: 进口煤量收缩趋势放缓,进口价下降。进口量方面,1-7 月累计增速实现 -13%,累计进口煤量仍然呈现收缩趋势;尽管 7 月当月同比连续 5 个月保持负 增速,但同比负增速出现边际放缓走势、环比呈现正增长,其中 7 月进口煤同比 降 22.94%、环比增 7.78%。分煤种来看,所有煤种同比仍然呈现负增长,但环 比方面仅无烟煤呈现负增长。炼焦煤增量主要来自外蒙古和俄国;动力煤增量主 要来澳大利亚;褐煤增量主要来自印度尼西亚。价格方面,全煤种进口价格实现 67 美元/吨,维持同比回落趋势,7 月当月环比降 ...
海关总署:中国6月煤及褐煤进口3303.7万吨,5月为3604万吨。
news flash· 2025-07-14 03:21
Core Viewpoint - In June, China's coal and lignite imports totaled 33.037 million tons, a decrease from 36.04 million tons in May [1] Group 1 - China's coal and lignite imports in June were 33.037 million tons [1] - The imports in May were recorded at 36.04 million tons, indicating a decline [1]
煤炭行业:动力煤价下跌,三大港口库存增幅明显
Dongxing Securities· 2025-05-16 00:50
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]