连续性血液净化设备(CRRT)

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山外山(688410):血液净化赛道国产龙头,设备回暖提供中短期催化、耗材与出海打开长期空间
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-18 15:39
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company with a 6-month target price of 22.51 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 17.86 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The blood purification industry is experiencing sustained growth, providing a solid foundation for the company's expansion. The number of chronic kidney disease patients globally reached 4.1 million in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% over the past decade. In China, the total number of dialysis patients is expected to reach 1.02 million by 2024, with a CAGR of about 12% [1][26]. - The company's revenue from equipment is closely correlated with the demand for terminal bidding, which has shown significant recovery in 2023 after a downturn in 2024 due to industry adjustments and procurement delays. The company is expected to see a continued improvement in its financial performance starting from Q1 2025 [2][39]. - Long-term growth is supported by an increase in market share for equipment, significant contributions from consumables, and accelerated international expansion. The company has improved its market share in blood dialysis equipment to 18% in terms of volume and 17% in terms of value by mid-2025, positioning itself as a strong competitor against foreign giants [3][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Blood Purification Industry Growth - The global market for blood dialysis services and products reached 81 billion euros in 2023, with China's dialysis product market expected to approach 30 billion CNY by 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend [1][30]. 2. Short-term Catalysts - The demand for blood dialysis equipment has rebounded significantly in 2023, leading to a substantial increase in the company's revenue and profit. The recovery trend is expected to continue into 2025, driven by improved bidding conditions [2][39]. 3. Long-term Growth Drivers - The company has enhanced its market share in blood dialysis equipment, achieving a notable increase in its bidding share from 13% in 2024 to 18% in 2025. The contribution from self-produced consumables has also seen rapid growth, with a 208.15% increase in sales revenue in 2024 [3][4]. - The company's international sales reached 128 million CNY in 2024, marking a 29.74% year-on-year growth, particularly in emerging markets such as South America and Africa [9][10]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth rates of 33.7%, 16.1%, and 15.2% for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 126.7%, 24.6%, and 20.4% respectively, indicating strong growth potential [10][12].