1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand pattern for cotton this year is generally loose, the US cotton is in the low - valuation range, and the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption growth is obvious due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory is expected to be tight at the end of the year, and the cotton price center is expected to rise in the medium and long term [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the rising oil price due to the escalating Middle - East situation has driven the rebound of raw sugar futures prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. Domestically, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] 3. Summary of Each Commodity According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 205 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,732 yuan/ton, a change of + 77 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,897 yuan/ton, a change of + 76 yuan/ton [1] - **Imports**: In 2026, January's cotton imports were 210,000 tons (up 18.0% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year), and February's were 170,000 tons (down 19.1% month - on - month and up 44.1% year - on - year). The cumulative imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a 41.0% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis - The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which is conducive to narrowing the internal - external price difference. The medium - and long - term prospects for US cotton are positive, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center in China is expected to rise [3] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction of planting area and potential reserve - selling policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,343 yuan/ton, a change of - 63 yuan/ton (- 1.17%) from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,310 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton [4] - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a 440,900 - ton increase year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar futures price has rebounded due to rising oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed. Domestically, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The previous sugar price increase was mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement. In the short term, it should be treated with a volatile mindset [6][7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 48 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from the previous day [8] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,065 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Trend**: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to weaken, with different price trends for different types of pulp [8] Market Analysis - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals are weak, and the pulp price may remain in low - level consolidation in the short term [9]