1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season, with the northern hemisphere entering the key planting period. In China, there is a significant increase in consumption due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, and the inventory at the end of the year may still be tight. The medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to continue to move up, but the short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar remains strong, and the domestic sugar is in a stage of inventory accumulation with higher - than - expected production increase. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below due to the Middle East situation [6][7] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand in China is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the port inventory in China remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - US cotton inspection: From March 20th to 26th, 2025/26, the US graded and inspected 0.37 million tons of cotton, with 82.2% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 3.0544 million tons, with 81.7% meeting the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The Middle East conflict causes large fluctuations in oil prices, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs to be monitored. The global supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production increased significantly, but the consumption increase due to downstream spindle capacity expansion is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The domestic new crop is expected to reduce production, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to move up [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, the reduction range of planting area, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton yesterday, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Brazil's sugar production: In the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 552,000 tons; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 million tons. From the 2025/26 season to the first half of March, the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons [4][5] Market Analysis - International: The raw sugar remains in a strong pattern. Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil may further decrease, and the short - term external market is greatly affected by the international situation. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvesting progress is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory. The domestic sugar import volume from January to February also increased significantly year - on - year [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below. Treat it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the past two years, the overseas new production capacity has been limited, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: In the past two years, a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China, but the terminal effective demand is insufficient. The raw material procurement of downstream paper mills is cautious. The port inventory in China remains at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to increase marginally [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, the port inventory is difficult to reduce, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand pattern for cotton this year is generally loose, the US cotton is in the low - valuation range, and the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption growth is obvious due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory is expected to be tight at the end of the year, and the cotton price center is expected to rise in the medium and long term [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the rising oil price due to the escalating Middle - East situation has driven the rebound of raw sugar futures prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. Domestically, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] 3. Summary of Each Commodity According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 205 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,732 yuan/ton, a change of + 77 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,897 yuan/ton, a change of + 76 yuan/ton [1] - **Imports**: In 2026, January's cotton imports were 210,000 tons (up 18.0% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year), and February's were 170,000 tons (down 19.1% month - on - month and up 44.1% year - on - year). The cumulative imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a 41.0% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis - The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which is conducive to narrowing the internal - external price difference. The medium - and long - term prospects for US cotton are positive, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center in China is expected to rise [3] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction of planting area and potential reserve - selling policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,343 yuan/ton, a change of - 63 yuan/ton (- 1.17%) from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,310 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton [4] - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a 440,900 - ton increase year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar futures price has rebounded due to rising oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed. Domestically, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The previous sugar price increase was mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement. In the short term, it should be treated with a volatile mindset [6][7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 48 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from the previous day [8] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,065 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Trend**: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to weaken, with different price trends for different types of pulp [8] Market Analysis - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals are weak, and the pulp price may remain in low - level consolidation in the short term [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for various agricultural products are as follows: - Soybean No. 1: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing international tensions and rising energy prices have a significant impact on the agricultural product market, affecting both costs and prices [2][3][4] - The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products is currently not tight, but attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop costs [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different trends, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to the specific situation of each product [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybean No. 1 - The domestic soybean main contract decreased in positions today, with price fluctuations. There were auction sales today and next week, but today's auctions were mostly unsold. The price difference between Soybean No. 1 and No. 2 decreased, and Soybean No. 2 showed strong performance, increasing in positions and prices. Imported soybeans were strong due to the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on planting costs and logistics [2] Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The Dalian soybean meal increased in positions and prices today, with the main contract M2605 increasing by 180,000 lots and rising 2.75%. The US soybeans continued to fluctuate strongly at a high level. International tensions, high - level oil price fluctuations, and rising natural gas prices all supported the price of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the March USDA global agricultural product supply - demand report on the 11th [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Domestic agricultural products generally rose, with soybean meal stronger than oils. The price ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal decreased significantly. The expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy boosted palm oil. The Middle - East geopolitical situation affected planting costs and logistics. The supply - demand pattern of agricultural products was not tight, and attention should be paid to the impact on new - crop costs [4] Corn - Dalian corn continued its strong trend. Port prices were stable, and some purchase prices in Shandong increased. Since March, CGS has been actively involved in corn trading. The US corn continued to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress in Northeast China, state - reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [6] Live Hogs - Live hog futures showed a weak correction today, but the far - month 01 contract continued to hit new highs. Spot prices were slightly lower. The pig price was at the bottom of a historical bear market, with high inventory pressure. Potential support factors included second - fattening, frozen - product storage, and frozen - meat purchases. It is recommended to wait for the premium of far - month contracts over spot and near - month contracts to narrow before going long on far - month contracts [7] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated slightly and strengthened, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The average culling age of old hens was delayed. In the long - term, the egg inventory was in a downward trend. After the post - Spring - Festival correction, the low replenishment in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up spot prices, and it is advisable to go long on the low - position on the futures market [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean oil: ななな [1] - Palm oil: な☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean meal: ななな [1] - Rapeseed meal: ななな [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand pattern of agricultural products is not tight, and the supply and demand side has a certain hedging safety cushion against geopolitical risks and macro fluctuations. Short-term attention should be paid to the guidance of the Middle East situation [1][3] - The state of strong oil and weak meal in agricultural products may continue, and attention should be paid to soybean customs clearance policies and imported soybean auctions [2] - After the short-term negative factors of rapeseed meal are digested, it is stronger than soybean meal after stabilizing [2] - The short-term market driver is mainly the uncertainty of Middle East energy, and attention should be paid to its impact on vegetable oils [3] - The Dalian corn futures are expected to run strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of grain sales in Northeast China, state reserve auction information, and futures capital trends [5] - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain low for a long time to promote industry capacity reduction, and long positions in the far - month contracts can be considered after the premium of far - month contracts over the spot and near - month contracts narrows [6] - After the post - Spring Festival phased correction of egg spot prices, the low replenishment situation in the second half of 2025 is expected to gradually drive the spot price to rise, and long positions can be arranged at low positions on the futures market [7] Summary by Category Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The domestic soybean futures contract decreased in position and declined today, and the US soybean was in a high - level volatile and strong state. As the Brazilian harvest season approaches, the overall supply and demand of soybeans tend to be loose [2] - The domestic soybean/soybean meal inventory has increased compared with last week, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is much higher than the average level of the past five years [2] - After the 5.9% anti - dumping duty is imposed on imported Canadian rapeseed, the short - term negative factors are basically digested, and rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal after stabilizing [2] Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil) - The domestic vegetable oil as a whole showed a trend of rising first and then falling [3] - The price of the strong US RIND4 has dropped significantly recently. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and energy prices have soared [3] Corn - The closing prices of Beigang Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port remained flat, and the purchase prices of Northeast acquisition enterprises were mainly flat with sporadic increases [5] - The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 35, remaining at a low level. Shandong acquisition enterprises raised prices more, with an increase range of 0.5 - 2 cents per catty [5] - The inventory of north - south ports is still at a relatively low level, and the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased significantly [5] Live Pigs - The live pig futures continued the weak adjustment, and the spot price fluctuated slightly [6] - The central government purchased 10,000 tons of frozen pork for reserve today. The pig price is in the second bottom - seeking stage and has fallen to the historical bear - market bottom range [6] - The出栏体重 is still high, and the inventory pressure needs to be reduced. Potential supporting factors include the entry of second - fattening pigs, frozen product warehousing, and frozen meat purchases for reserve [6] Eggs - The spot price of eggs continued to decline. After the post - Spring Festival and back - to - school stocking ended, the spot price was in a weak adjustment [7] - In February, the inventory of laying hens increased slightly, and the monthly chick replenishment volume was basically stable month - on - month and decreased by about 3% year - on - year [7] - In the long run, the number of newly - laid hens is lower than the number of old hens to be culled each month, and the inventory is in a downward trend [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the USDA outlook indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern in the 2026/27 global cotton market, with production decreasing by 3.2% to 2526 million tons, consumption increasing by 1.2% to 2615 million tons, and ending stocks decreasing by 5.2% to 1550 million tons. In China, the textile market is gradually resuming after the holiday, and in the medium - long term, the cotton price center may rise due to factors like potential inventory tightening and reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in an oversupply situation in the short - medium term, although there are potential long - term supply - side benefits. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy tightening may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure will likely ease in 2026, but domestic port inventories remain high due to weak terminal demand. However, the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [8] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Cotton - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15225 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton (-1.10%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16485 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1260; the national average price was 16633 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 1408. From February 20 to 26, 2025/26 US cotton grading inspection was 1.12 million tons, and 71.2% of lint met ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] Sugar - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5345 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.39%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 5, down 21 from the previous day. In Kunming, Yunnan, the spot price was 5200 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 145, down 16 from the previous day. As of February 28, 2025/26, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing was 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, up 0.13% year - on - year [4] Pulp - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5252 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5290 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 38. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4900 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 352. The import wood pulp spot market prices showed a weakening trend, with some prices of different pulp types in various regions falling [7] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, the USDA outlook is positive, and the new - season global cotton supply - demand pattern may tighten, pushing up the outer - market price. Domestically, the textile market is resuming after the holiday. In the medium - long term, due to factors like expanded downstream spindle capacity and potential reduced planting area in Xinjiang, the cotton price center may rise [2] Sugar - The Indian sugar production estimate has been revised down, but the 2025/26 global sugar market remains in an oversupply situation in the short - medium term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy tightening may support the market [5] Pulp - The global wood pulp supply pressure will likely ease in 2026, and if the consumption in Europe and the US improves, the pressure on China's imports may be relieved. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in high port inventories. However, the overall demand is expected to improve in 2026 [8] Group 5: Strategies Cotton - In the short term, the market is optimistic about the post - holiday market, but the short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of new - season planting area and the release of target price subsidy policies [3] Sugar - Although the fundamental driving force is downward, the overall downward space of sugar price is limited. In the short - medium term, sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Focus on changes in China's import policy [6] Pulp - The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and port inventories are still high. In the short term, the pulp price may fluctuate at a low level [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. Without significant news, soybean meal prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened effective supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the selling progress may accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2323 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US data: In October 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons. The soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] 3.1.2. Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. Without new news, soybean meal prices will fluctuate. High US soybean import costs require attention to import volume and South American weather [2] 3.1.3. Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2523 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazilian data: Thanks to abundant rainfall, the planting of the first - season corn crop in some Brazilian states is progressing rapidly. As of December 5, the national first - season corn sowing was 71.3% complete [3] 3.2.2. Market Analysis - Supply side: The selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened supply. As prices rise and holidays approach, selling may accelerate. Demand side: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3.2.3. Strategy - Neutral [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. After policy stability, there is no sudden news to stimulate the market, so the overall soybean meal price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply in the Northeast production area is currently tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but the selling progress is expected to accelerate. The demand side, including deep - processing and feed enterprises, has inventory replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Contents 3.1 Soybean Meal Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2763 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2317 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - Export Data: Brazil exported 970,000 tons of soybeans in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 194,000 tons, a 103% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year. As of December 4, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.018 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation lead to a stable soybean meal price in a fluctuating state. The high cost of imported US soybeans requires attention to import and South American weather conditions [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2522 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.06%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Export Data: As of December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.452 million tons. Brazil exported 1.728 million tons of corn in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 346,000 tons, a 70% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side in the domestic market, the selling progress in the Northeast is fast overall, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. The selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [6]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Views - Corn prices will remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle in the medium - to - long term after the release of farmers' selling pressure [3] - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for medium - to - long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as new cotton production is estimated to decline and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - The future decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm, and the culling rhythm has slightly accelerated in the past two weeks [11] - Apple prices are short - term bearish as the market is well - stocked and good - quality goods are scarce after a recent rally [16] - For pigs, there are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is still large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16] 3. Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, corn prices in some regions changed (e.g.,锦州 up 10), and the corn basis decreased by 18, while the import profit increased by 26. Starch basis decreased by 28, and processing profit decreased by 20 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are strong due to supply shortage and restocking demand; starch prices are under pressure from high inventory [3] Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, sugar prices in some regions decreased (e.g.,柳州 down 20), and the basis increased by 18 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies than the foreign market, and in the long - term, domestic sugar costs may be impacted by imported sugar. Maintain a high - short strategy [7] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 496 [8] - **Market Analysis**: New cotton production is expected to decline, and the external environment for textile exports has improved, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8] Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, egg prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly (e.g.,湖北 down 0.06), and the basis increased by 7 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The egg inventory inflection point has appeared, and the future decline rate depends on the culling rhythm, which has slightly accelerated recently [11] Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, apple prices remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 1.00 [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: The national apple storage is basically completed, with a lower storage rate than last year. The market is short - term bearish [16] Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis increased by 155 [16] - **Market Analysis**: There are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, due to the relatively high level compared to the previous year, it is not enough to generate a highly profitable CBOT soybean futures planting profit situation. In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. [3] - The new global soybean production has been marginally lowered, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [5] - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not prosperous before, the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices has digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force, and with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. In the short - term, there is a resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium - term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and with the end of seasonal stocking, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] - The theoretical slaughter volume of pigs remains large, the completion rate of the slaughter plan of large - scale farms is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight is still high year - on - year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small farmers are slowly being released. The supply pressure remains, and there is still an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand is tepid, and only sporadic bacon - making activities have occurred in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a narrow range, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 2990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week, mainly due to high crushing volume, and the apparent consumption was flat week - on - week. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 89% of the expected area. The USDA predicted that the global soybean supply - demand pattern would shift from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, and the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio had dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently. [3] - **Strategy**: In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [3][5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days. [7] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5460 - 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 78 yuan/ton. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield rate at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year; sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year. [12] - **Strategy**: It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13800 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1180 yuan/ton. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. [16] - **Strategy**: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main production areas was flat at 3.06 yuan/jin, the price in Heishan was flat at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders had little confidence in the future market, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. [20] - **Strategy**: The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with the mainstream price decreasing. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 11.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan was flat at 11.44 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of farmers increased gradually, but the demand increase was relatively limited, the market sales speed slowed down, and today farmers may reduce prices to sell, and the pig price may decline. [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].