| | 操作评级 | 2026年03月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜粕 | ななな | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约表现为震荡调整状态,下跌之后再度回升。目前现货市场观望情绪偏浓厚,并且在等待国储拍卖动向。国产 大豆和进口大豆价差下跌之后又快速拉回。目前南美大豆逐步收获，棕榈油后续逐步进入增产期，全球莱籽旧作总体供应宽 松，农产品供需格局属于不紧张的状态。这种背景下，供需端对地缘风险以及宏观波动尚有一定的对冲安全垫。短期密切关注 中东局势指引。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 连箱今日减仓下行，美豆高位震 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-03-03 持续反弹驱动不足，板块整体承压运行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15225元/吨，较前一日变动-170元/吨，幅度-1.10%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16485元/吨，现货基差CF05+1260；3128B棉全国均价16633元/吨，现货基差CF05+1408。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月20日至2月26日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验1.12万吨，71.2% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡下跌。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少5.2%。USDA展望预期 偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，推动外盘强势收复65美分/磅整数关口。后续需持续关注新季供应方面 的题材。国内方面，节后国内纺织市场陆续复工复产，市场交易有望逐步恢复，短期需关注旺季下游订单表现。 中长期看，下游纱锭产能扩张带来棉花消耗提高，本年度国内预计维持高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. Without significant news, soybean meal prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened effective supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the selling progress may accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2323 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US data: In October 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons. The soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] 3.1.2. Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. Without new news, soybean meal prices will fluctuate. High US soybean import costs require attention to import volume and South American weather [2] 3.1.3. Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2523 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazilian data: Thanks to abundant rainfall, the planting of the first - season corn crop in some Brazilian states is progressing rapidly. As of December 5, the national first - season corn sowing was 71.3% complete [3] 3.2.2. Market Analysis - Supply side: The selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened supply. As prices rise and holidays approach, selling may accelerate. Demand side: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3.2.3. Strategy - Neutral [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment strategy for the corn market is neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern of soybean meal has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. After policy stability, there is no sudden news to stimulate the market, so the overall soybean meal price fluctuates. Attention should be paid to the import of US soybeans and the weather in the new - season South American production areas [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply in the Northeast production area is currently tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, but the selling progress is expected to accelerate. The demand side, including deep - processing and feed enterprises, has inventory replenishment needs, and feed enterprises' demand is rigid [6] 3. Summaries According to Related Contents 3.1 Soybean Meal Market 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2763 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.54%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2317 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot price of soybean meal in Tianjin was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - Export Data: Brazil exported 970,000 tons of soybeans in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 194,000 tons, a 103% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year. As of December 4, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.018 million tons [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed. High oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation lead to a stable soybean meal price in a fluctuating state. The high cost of imported US soybeans requires attention to import and South American weather conditions [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-1.11%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2522 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-1.06%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of corn in Liaoning was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - Export Data: As of December 4, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.452 million tons. Brazil exported 1.728 million tons of corn in the first week of December 2025, with a daily average export volume of 346,000 tons, a 70% increase from the daily average export volume in December of the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side in the domestic market, the selling progress in the Northeast is fast overall, but farmers' reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply. The selling progress is expected to accelerate. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs, and the demand from feed enterprises is rigid [6]

1. Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Views - Corn prices will remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle in the medium - to - long term after the release of farmers' selling pressure [3] - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for medium - to - long - term price trends [3] - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as new cotton production is estimated to decline and the external environment for textile exports has improved [8] - The future decline rate of egg inventory depends on the culling rhythm, and the culling rhythm has slightly accelerated in the past two weeks [11] - Apple prices are short - term bearish as the market is well - stocked and good - quality goods are scarce after a recent rally [16] - For pigs, there are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is still large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16] 3. Summary of Each Product Corn/Starch - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, corn prices in some regions changed (e.g.,锦州 up 10), and the corn basis decreased by 18, while the import profit increased by 26. Starch basis decreased by 28, and processing profit decreased by 20 [2] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term corn prices are strong due to supply shortage and restocking demand; starch prices are under pressure from high inventory [3] Sugar - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, sugar prices in some regions decreased (e.g.,柳州 down 20), and the basis increased by 18 [6] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by policies than the foreign market, and in the long - term, domestic sugar costs may be impacted by imported sugar. Maintain a high - short strategy [7] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 15, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 496 [8] - **Market Analysis**: New cotton production is expected to decline, and the external environment for textile exports has improved, making it suitable for long - term long positions [8] Eggs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, egg prices in some regions remained stable or decreased slightly (e.g.,湖北 down 0.06), and the basis increased by 7 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The egg inventory inflection point has appeared, and the future decline rate depends on the culling rhythm, which has slightly accelerated recently [11] Apples - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, apple prices remained stable, and the national inventory decreased by 1.00 [15][16] - **Market Analysis**: The national apple storage is basically completed, with a lower storage rate than last year. The market is short - term bearish [16] Pigs - **Price Changes**: From 2025/11/28 to 2025/12/04, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis increased by 155 [16] - **Market Analysis**: There are expectations of both increased supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large, and the market is waiting for the peak season test [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, due to the relatively high level compared to the previous year, it is not enough to generate a highly profitable CBOT soybean futures planting profit situation. In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. [3] - The new global soybean production has been marginally lowered, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [5] - The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains high production, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve significantly. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not prosperous before, the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices has digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force, and with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. In the short - term, there is a resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium - term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and with the end of seasonal stocking, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] - The theoretical slaughter volume of pigs remains large, the completion rate of the slaughter plan of large - scale farms is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight is still high year - on - year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small farmers are slowly being released. The supply pressure remains, and there is still an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand is tepid, and only sporadic bacon - making activities have occurred in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a narrow range, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals remained stable. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped by 30 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at 2990 yuan/ton. Soybean meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week, mainly due to high crushing volume, and the apparent consumption was flat week - on - week. [2] - **Supply and Demand**: As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 89% of the expected area. The USDA predicted that the global soybean supply - demand pattern would shift from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, and the global soybean forecast annual inventory - to - sales ratio had dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently. [3] - **Strategy**: In the absence of significant problems in South American weather, the cost of soybean arrivals is expected to fluctuate. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate under the conditions of cost support and pressured crushing margins. [3][5] Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, increased by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days. [7] - **Strategy**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market, and high - frequency export data has declined. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips. [10] Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5382 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5460 - 5550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 78 yuan/ton. [12] - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield rate at the end of November was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year; sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year. [12] - **Strategy**: It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new sugar - crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to sell at high prices and close positions when prices fall. [13] Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures increased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 13800 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14980 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of CCIndex 3128B - Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1180 yuan/ton. [15] - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared with last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. [16] - **Strategy**: The probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trend is not high. [18] Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price in the main production areas was flat at 3.06 yuan/jin, the price in Heishan was flat at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.04 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders had little confidence in the future market, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair. [20] - **Strategy**: The strategy is short - term long and medium - term short. [21] Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price was stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with the mainstream price decreasing. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 11.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan was flat at 11.44 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume of farmers increased gradually, but the demand increase was relatively limited, the market sales speed slowed down, and today farmers may reduce prices to sell, and the pig price may decline. [23] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short the near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean: The global soybean supply and demand pattern has shifted from double - growth to supply reduction and demand increase, with the predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio dropping to 28.94%. The bottom of the import cost may be apparent, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate [3][5]. - Palm Oil: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. The current supply surplus may reverse. If high - yield does not continue, the de - stocking time will come earlier. It is recommended to try the idea of buying on dips [10]. - Sugar: The new sugar - making season is expected to see increased production in major countries, with the global supply - demand turning from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to short on rallies and close positions on price drops [13]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was weak, the demand is not too bad after the peak season. The short - term capital inflow may push up the cotton price, but it's hard to have a unilateral trend [18]. - Eggs: Due to continuous losses, the sentiment of culling hens is strong. The short - term view is long, and the medium - term view is short [21]. - Pigs: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell, Brazilian premiums declined slightly, and the cost of soybean arrivals decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices increased by 30 yuan/ton, with weak trading and good pick - up. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.1353 million tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The USDA predicts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, and the global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped. The domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and the soybean meal inventory is large, but the de - stocking season is approaching [3][5]. Oil - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, domestic oils fluctuated, with foreign capital adding short positions in palm oil and long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot basis in China is stable [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production had mixed changes. The total inventory of the three major domestic oils continued to decline last week, but was still higher than the same period last year. The floods in Sumatra, Indonesia, have not significantly affected palm oil production [7]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract rose by 5 yuan/ton. The spot prices of new sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased, while the prices of processed sugar remained unchanged [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of December 1, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 season, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 310,000 tons. The global sugar supply is expected to have a surplus of 3.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures rose slightly. The closing price of the January contract increased by 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of cotton also increased, and the basis was 1171 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of November 28, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons. In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase [16]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or rising. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly. The supply was relatively stable, the downstream sales were slow, and the inventory in the trading link increased slightly [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling hens. The far - month contracts are strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting consumption stocking and capacity reduction [21]. Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly rose, with partial declines. The average price in Henan and Sichuan increased slightly. The supply pressure from northern farmers and small farms increased, and the demand increase was limited [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The theoretical slaughter volume is still large, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is tepid. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, due to low supply and downstream enterprises' restocking demand, corn prices will remain strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern remains tight, and planting costs will strongly support prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices and are pressured by high inventory. In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends [3]. - Sugar: The global and domestic sugar supply is in a loose pattern. Maintain a short - selling strategy, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. - Cotton: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, making long - term long positions suitable [9]. - Eggs: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. - Apples: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. - Pigs: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, prices in different regions changed slightly. For example, the price in潍坊 increased by 10, while the price in other regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and trade profits also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply is low, and downstream enterprises need to restock, driving up prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are pressured by high inventory in the short - term and depend on downstream consumption in the long - term [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price in some regions decreased, the basis decreased by 24, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 7618 [6]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the cost of domestic sugar is the key support. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the cost of domestic sugar may be broken through. The supply is loose, and the short - selling strategy is maintained, but the short - term downward space is limited [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, and the import profit, warehouse receipts + forecasts, and other data also changed [9]. - **Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the Sino - US talks is beneficial to textile exports, and long - term long positions are suitable [9]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in some production areas increased, and the basis increased by 22 [12]. - **Analysis**: Supply pressure is partially relieved, and demand increases due to the longer storage time. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Focus on the change of the chicken culling rhythm [12]. Apples - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis of different months had corresponding changes [13][14]. - **Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. The average opening price is high, and the price difference between good and bad products widens. The price is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [14]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From 2025/11/21 to 2025/11/27, the prices in production areas decreased, and the basis decreased by 95 [15]. - **Analysis**: There are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. The supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm, epidemics, policies, and capital sentiment [16].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to low supply and downstream restocking demand, and may start a new upward cycle after the release of farmers' selling pressure in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption rhythm will be the key factor for price trends in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - For sugar, maintain a high - short strategy as the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, but the short - term downward space is limited [7]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as the new cotton acquisition is almost completed, the estimated total output is lowered, and the external environment is favorable for textile exports [10]. - Egg prices are pushed up slightly by supply and demand factors, and the acceleration of the culling rhythm will drive prices up [13]. - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term as the national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year and good - quality goods are scarce [16]. - For pigs, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to the far - month market sentiment improvement and various influencing factors [18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Changchun remained unchanged, while the price in Weifang increased by 20 yuan, and the price in Shekou increased by 10 yuan. The basis of corn changed by - 27, and the trade profit increased by 10. For starch, the price in Weifang increased by 50 yuan, and the basis changed by - 39 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, the corn market is short of supply, and prices are strong. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is tight, and planting costs support prices. Starch prices are under pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, and downstream consumption is the key in the long - term [4]. Sugar - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Kunming increased by 5 yuan, and the Zhengzhou futures price decreased by 11. The basis in Liuzhou was 322, and the import profit from Thailand and Brazil was 410 and 591 respectively on November 21 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, domestic sugar prices are supported by domestic production costs. In the long - term, if the global sugar surplus intensifies, domestic production costs may be broken through. Maintain a high - short strategy [7]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 yuan, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 1185. The price of Vietnamese yarn remained unchanged, and the import profit increased by 4, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 1 [10]. - **Market Analysis**: New cotton acquisition is almost done, and the estimated output is lowered. The external environment is favorable for textile exports, so it is suitable for long - term long positions [10]. Eggs - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the prices in various production areas remained unchanged, and the basis remained unchanged. The price of live pigs decreased by 0.03 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply pressure is relieved, and demand increases. The price center of production areas moves up slightly. Pay attention to the culling rhythm [13]. Apples - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 20, the prices of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade and Shaanxi 70 general - grade apples remained unchanged. The national inventory increased by 56, Shandong inventory increased by 101, and Shaanxi inventory increased by 67 [15][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The national cold - storage inventory is lower than last year. Good - quality goods are scarce, and prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [16]. Pigs - **Price and Index Changes**: From November 17 - 21, the price in Henan Kaifeng decreased by 0.05, and the price in Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05. The basis increased by 40 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Before the Spring Festival, there are expectations of both supply and demand increase, but the supply and inventory pressure is large. Pay attention to far - month market sentiment and various influencing factors [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybeans have high inventory, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The over - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market, but recent improvement in exports provides support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [6][8]. - **Sugar**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. - **Eggs**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans first fell and then rose, supported by Chinese purchases. Brazilian soybean premiums decreased slightly last week, and the cost of imported soybeans declined. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable over the weekend, and trading and pick - up were good last week. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.3173 million tons, slightly lower than last week's 2.3344 million tons. The feed enterprise inventory days decreased to 7.98 days last week [2]. - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased, and the bottom of import cost may have appeared. Domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate [4]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Information**: From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous month, and production showed a mixed trend. Domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to be weak. Last Friday, domestic palm oil prices fell, and the spot basis was stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Over - expected production suppresses the market, but improved exports provide support. It is advisable to view it with an oscillatory perspective and turn bullish if production decline signals appear [8]. **Sugar** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and declined. The international sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 2025/26 season. China's sugar imports increased in 2025. India's sugar production increased significantly this year [10][11]. - **Strategy**: The market expects an increase in production in the northern hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, with limited upward space for raw sugar. It is recommended to wait for a rebound and then short [12]. **Cotton** - **Market Information**: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. China's cotton imports decreased in 2025, and the spinning mill's operating rate decreased slightly [14][15]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the previous price decline has digested the bearish impact of high yields. Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [16]. **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable over the weekend, with some local increases. Supply pressure remains, but inventory pressure has eased after the temperature drop, and downstream replenishment willingness has increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Before the spot price realizes seasonal increases, the futures market is expected to oscillate. In the medium - term, after the stocking period, focus on supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. **Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fluctuated over the weekend. Supply is normal, and terminal demand is limited, so pig prices are expected to be stable today with some local adjustments [20]. - **Strategy**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [21].