Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector is under pressure due to limited supply - demand improvement. For different products, the market conditions vary, and short - term and long - term trends need to be considered separately [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,535 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,525 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,819 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton. In December 2025, India's textile exports were 1.77 billion US dollars, down 1.62% year - on - year, while clothing exports increased to 1.504 billion US dollars, up 2.89% year - on - year. The total textile and clothing exports in December 2025 increased slightly by 0.40% to 3.274 billion US dollars. From April to December 2025, the total textile and clothing exports were 26.531 billion US dollars, slightly down 0.26% from the previous year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton production and ending stocks, but the large - scale listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak, so short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, and the downward space is limited. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton season had a significant increase in production, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, downstream orders are weak, and the industrial chain inventory, especially the grey fabric inventory, has increased significantly. The annual supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - The strategy for cotton is neutral. In the short term, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] 3.2 Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,144 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (0.75%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,195 yuan/ton, unchanged. In December 2025, the average sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons/hectare, up 26.6% from the same period in 2024. From April to December in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative yield was 74.7 tons/hectare, down 4.6% from the same period in the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to be weak. In the short - term, the tight trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar, but the global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season suppresses the market. In the long - term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and there are still uncertainties in the weather in 2026 and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi are fully operational, supply is seasonally increasing, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high [4] Strategy - The strategy for sugar is neutral. In the short - to - medium term, although the valuation is low, the domestic inventory pressure may not have peaked, and there is a possibility of another bottom - seeking, but the overall downward space is limited, and the sugar price should be treated with an idea of oscillating and bottom - building [6] 3.3 Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,000 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly organized. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance at the end of 2025. On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased in November, and the demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation, the terminal effective demand was insufficient, and the raw material procurement of downstream paper mills was cautious, resulting in a long - term high inventory in domestic ports [7] Strategy - The strategy for pulp is neutral. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and the foreign - exchange price has increased, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8]