投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-10-10 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，沪胶偏弱运行 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，合成胶偏弱运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：下跌 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。全球金融市场避险情 ...

报告周期: 日报 成文日期: 20250909 研究品种: 沪锡 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号 (F03122015&Z0019820) 浪潮期货日报 1. 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日沪锡 2510 合约开盘价为 271000 元/吨，盘中最高触及 271510 元/吨，最低下探至 268640 元/吨，最终收盘报于 269620 元 /吨。 今日沪锡主力合约 2510 成交量为 47484 手。 □ 沪锡2510(sn2510) 269720 69790 71110 71000 71510 68640 43990 -587 24160 仓差 性质 1.2 品种价格 图 2：沪锡合约行情数据 | 交割月份 | 削結算 | 今开盤 | 醫宗份 | 磨喉 | 收盘价 | 得為參 考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品名称:锡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2509 | 270 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation on the strong side" respectively. It is predicted that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Thursday [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Price and Trend** - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly up 0.04% to 2404 yuan/ton on Wednesday night [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation** - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad remains high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply - demand structure is weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. - **Driving Factors** - With the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, there are differences between bulls and bears in the domestic methanol market, resulting in the oscillating and stabilizing trend of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract on Wednesday night [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and slightly rebounding on Wednesday. However, the continuation of the rise is weak and the space is limited [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price of domestic and foreign crude oil futures is expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% [9]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [10]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8633 million tons [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 172 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the inland methanol inventory totaled 295,700 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4% [13]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract was 2,424 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of crude oil was 456.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract was 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, crude oil basis, etc. [15][27][40]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile trend in the short and medium - term and a volatile and weak trend intraday [1][5]. - With the weakening of the previous macro - driving force, methanol has returned to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1]. - On the night session of Monday this week, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract closed slightly lower by 1.04% to 2375 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5]. Driving Logic - The weakening of coal prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol are the main reasons for the weak operation of methanol prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is large, and downstream demand is in the off - season [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current speculation on mining license issues may be overheated. The market has two logics: one is the "step - by - step" upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" driven by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, which may lead to a temporary shortage of lithium ore and push up the price center of lithium salts; the other is the "negative feedback" cycle of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - lithium salt decline again" in the downward price cycle. The cost reduction also drives the downward movement of the price center of lithium carbonate. Overall, the futures market in the second half of the year is expected to rise in the third quarter and fall in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The short - term strong support level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 42.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 73.5% [2]. - **Contract Performance**: The closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the lithium carbonate main contract and LC2601 contract all increased. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose from 86,900 yuan/ton to 89,240 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,340 yuan/ton (2.69%) and a weekly increase of 8,240 yuan/ton (10.17%) [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The LC11 - 12 spread decreased from 320 to 0, a 100% decrease; the LC11 - 01 spread decreased from 480 to 200, a 58% decrease [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores, such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone, all increased. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) rose from 2,100 yuan/ton to 2,185 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton (4.05%) and a weekly increase of 310 yuan/ton (16.53%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide all increased. For example, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose from 80,400 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,900 yuan/ton (2.36%) and a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton (13.83%) [18]. - **Downstream Products**: The average daily prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes also showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose from 35,655 yuan/ton to 36,170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 515 yuan/ton (1.44%) [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of lithium carbonate main contract and brand basis of different companies are provided. For example, the brand basis of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts increased from 21,939 to 23,485, an increase of 1,546. The warehouse receipts of some warehouses increased, such as Xiangyu Speed Transmission Shanghai, which increased from 1,870 to 2,010 [29][30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production profit, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [32]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory and risk of impairment, it is recommended to short lithium carbonate futures (20% of inventory) and sell call options (20%) to lock in profits and hedge risks. Buying out - of - the - money put options is also recommended [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans, it is recommended to buy long - term lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2390.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhonghui Futures, the recovery of previously shut down facilities and increased operational loads of overseas methanol plants are raising supply-side pressure expectations [1] - Recently, facilities from Ningxia Baofeng and Hualu Hengsheng (600426) are under maintenance with no recovery yet, while next week, maintenance at Gansu Huating, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Shanxi Lubao methanol plants is expected to conclude [1] - Overall operational loads of overseas facilities remain high [1] Demand Side - According to Ruida Futures, the restart of the Zhongmei Mengda olefin plant last week has led to an increase in operational loads, while Zhejiang Xingxing's plant is still offline, slightly boosting the olefin industry's operational rates [1] - Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to resume operations this week, indicating potential for further increases in the olefin industry's operational capacity [1] Inventory - As of July 31, coastal methanol inventories stood at 915,000 tons, which is above the historical average, having increased by 45,000 tons (5.17%) compared to July 24, and down 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that the "anti-involution" trend is cooling, leading to a correction in industrial products [1] - The rising coal prices provide some support for methanol, but the restart of facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits are putting pressure on supply and demand [1] - The 2509 contract is approaching its delivery month, aligning closely with spot market logic, and prices are expected to remain weak and volatile [1]

期货热点追踪 大商所棕榈油期价走弱，市场深陷多空胶着，价格会继续下探吗？ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]