021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 3 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：3月2日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 9 | | 原木：小幅探涨 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1749.0 yuan, with a current price of 1722.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends for coking coal and coking prices, with some expecting a slight rebound and others predicting a volatile but generally strong trend [2][3] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted a slight rebound in coking coal prices, with overall coking profits being average and daily production slightly decreasing, while coking coal inventory saw a minor increase [2] - WISCO Futures assessed that the overall balance between coking coal, coking, and downstream iron water remains stable, but steel companies currently have low expectations for future market conditions, leading to a cautious inventory strategy [3] - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations regarding coal-related policies, despite an increase in coal inventory and stable iron water levels, indicating a focus on "anti-involution" impacts [2]

Group 1 - Report title: "Market Flash - Cost Support Drove BR to a Strong Limit Up Last Night" [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Fanglei [4] - Contact information: 19339940612 [4] - Futures trading consultation number: Z0021311 [4] Group 2 - The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (BR) was 12,930 yuan/ton last night, with a strong limit up [3] - Since December 2025, the BR futures price has been rising driven by butadiene [3] - Recently, due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of downstream products, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, reflecting the strong fundamentals of butadiene [3] - In the medium term, there will be no new butadiene production plants put into operation in the first half of this year, increasing concerns about supply shortages [3] - Recently, funds have rapidly flowed into the energy and chemical sector, boosting rubber varieties [3] - The limit up of butadiene rubber last night was mainly due to the combined effect of raw materials and funds, and its own supply - demand situation has not changed significantly [3] - In the short term, the tight supply of butadiene is expected to boost the BR price, and traders should be vigilant against the callback risk after the release of emotions [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global market for soybeans has a relatively loose supply-demand situation, so there may still be pressure on overall prices [4][5]. - The domestic soybean meal market has shown some stability after a continuous decline, and the rapeseed meal market has a relatively strong trend, but there may be greater pressure after the supply recovers [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to face pressure in the medium term, and the price of rapeseed meal is expected to move downward [5][7]. - The trading strategy suggests a bearish approach for single - sided trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and a short straddle strategy for options [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal generally declined. For example, the 01 soybean meal contract closed at 2895, down 8; the 01 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2208, down 9 [3]. - The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions mostly increased. For example, the spot basis of 01 soybean meal in Tianjin increased from 440 to 450 [3]. - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The near - month inter - monthly spread of soybean meal decreased, while that of rapeseed meal was relatively strong [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the oil - meal ratio increased [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis International Market - The U.S. soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market estimate of 292 million bushels. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish [4]. - Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and exports are expected to increase significantly. The old crop has good export and crushing performance [4]. - Argentina's old soybean crop has a relatively large yield, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic soybean meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate increased, and the market supply was sufficient. As of January 16, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.9942 million tons, and the operating rate was 54.86% [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the rapeseed supply is at a low level [6]. 3. Logical Analysis - The U.S. soybean market has large inventory pressure, but the downward speed may slow down due to improved demand. It is expected to move downward in a volatile manner [7]. - Brazil's soybean price is expected to face pressure, and South American quotes have started to decline [7]. - The domestic soybean supply has uncertainty, and the spot market shows some support. However, the upward space is limited [7]. - The rapeseed meal market is expected to move downward, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to expand [7]. 4. Trading Strategy - Single - sided trading: Adopt a bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Use a short straddle strategy [8]. 5. Soybean Pressing Profit - The pressing profit from Brazilian soybeans in different shipping months showed different changes. For example, the pressing profit in March decreased by 13.17 compared with the previous day [9].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber futures in China initially rose due to better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data but later retreated as positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton. With the previous positive factors realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [5][14][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis discount converged** - In the week of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price of SCRWF and the futures price of the RU2605 contract was at a discount of 185 yuan/ton, and the degree of discount slightly converged [9]. - **1.2 Positive factors digested, and rubber prices rose first and then fell** - Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data, domestic rubber futures rose initially. However, as the positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected, rubber prices gave back their gains. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement in Q3 2025 - **2.1 Output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries increased slightly year - on - year, and consumption decreased slightly year - on - year** - From May to November, rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China and Southeast Asian countries are in the peak tapping season. In November 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1677 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0674 million tons (a decline of 5.46%). From January to November 2025, the total production was 10.3887 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0482 million tons (an increase of 0.47%) compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the total rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries was 0.9116 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0112 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons (an increase of 1.22%). From January to November 2025, the total consumption was 9.9974 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2243 million tons (a decline of 2.19%) compared with the same period last year. Due to normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and weakening global demand, the rubber market supply - demand structure is weakening, and rubber prices may face pressure in the future [26][30]. - **2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in November 2025** - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In November 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to November 2025, the total import was 7.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5% [33]. - **2.3 Growth rate of domestic tire production slowed down, and industry operating rate declined slightly** - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion pieces, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [36]. - **2.4 China's auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in 2025** - In 2025, China's auto production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. Passenger vehicle production and sales were 30.27 million and 30.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. Commercial vehicle production and sales were 4.261 million and 4.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. Auto exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The logistics prosperity index in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of the heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [40][41]. - **2.5 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts increased significantly, and Qingdao Bonded Area inventory increased slightly** - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the SHFE rubber futures inventory increased significantly week - on - week, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 3,900 tons to 108,390 tons compared with the week of January 9. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (a growth rate of 4.48%). The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons (a growth rate of 3.80%), and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [57]. 3.3 Conclusion - Currently, the natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China are in the non - tapping season, and the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. However, Southeast Asia has not entered the low - production season, and supply pressure still exists. The domestic auto production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. However, the crude oil price has given back its geopolitical premium, and the correction of the energy - chemical sector has dragged down the high - level adjustment of rubber futures. As the previous positive factors are gradually realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is "shock", and for soybean meal, it is suggested that the price may rebound [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The price of CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the upward trend of neighboring corn and wheat, but the upcoming record - high soybean harvest in Brazil restricts the upside potential of soybean prices. The price of soybean meal may rebound after the uncertainty is removed [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4324 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.21%), and 4303 yuan/ton at night, down 32 yuan (-0.74%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2727 yuan/ton during the day session, down 11 yuan (-0.40%), and 2722 yuan/ton at night, down 12 yuan (-0.44%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1056.25 cents/bushel, up 3.25 cents (+0.31%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 289.9 dollars/short ton, up 0.7 dollars (+0.24%) [1] Spot - In Shandong, the price range of soybean meal is 3085 - 3150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to flat compared with the previous day; in East China, the price of Jiangsu Zhonghai is 3080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in South China, the price range is 3120 - 3220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to flat compared with the previous day. Different regions have different premiums relative to futures contracts at different time points, and most of them remain flat [1] Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal was 25.15 million tons per day on the previous trading day, and 52.6 million tons per day two trading days ago; the inventory was not available on the previous trading day and 101.88 million tons per week two trading days ago [1] Macro and Industry News - On January 16, 2026, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately due to strong domestic soybean crushing and the upward trend of neighboring corn and wheat. However, the upcoming record - high soybean harvest in Brazil will restrict the upside potential of soybean prices. The U.S. market will be closed on Martin Luther King Day on Monday and will resume trading on Tuesday. Canada and China have reached a new trade agreement, including reducing the tariff on rapeseed. China will reduce the compound tariff rate on Canadian rapeseed from about 84% to about 15% before March 1 [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [3]