Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of Shanghai rubber (RU) 2605 are all "oscillating", with an overall reference view of "oscillating and strengthening". The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of synthetic rubber (BR) 2605 are all "oscillating and strengthening" [1]. - Due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international crude oil futures prices remain strong, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber, indirectly boosting the stabilization and rebound of Shanghai rubber futures. It is expected that on Monday, Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference: oscillating and strengthening [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to the strong performance of international crude oil futures prices, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber, indirectly boosting the stabilization and rebound of Shanghai rubber futures. The Shanghai rubber futures 2605 contract showed an oscillating and strengthening trend in the night session last Friday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating and strengthening; Medium - term: oscillating and strengthening; Intraday: oscillating and strengthening; Overall reference: oscillating and strengthening [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East lead to the strong performance of international crude oil futures prices, which boosts domestic energy and chemical commodity futures prices. The rising crude oil prices drive the increase of synthetic rubber. The synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating upward trend in the night session last Friday, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend on Monday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand pattern for cotton this year is generally loose, the US cotton is in the low - valuation range, and the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption growth is obvious due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory is expected to be tight at the end of the year, and the cotton price center is expected to rise in the medium and long term [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the rising oil price due to the escalating Middle - East situation has driven the rebound of raw sugar futures prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. Domestically, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] 3. Summary of Each Commodity According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 205 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,732 yuan/ton, a change of + 77 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,897 yuan/ton, a change of + 76 yuan/ton [1] - **Imports**: In 2026, January's cotton imports were 210,000 tons (up 18.0% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year), and February's were 170,000 tons (down 19.1% month - on - month and up 44.1% year - on - year). The cumulative imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a 41.0% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis - The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which is conducive to narrowing the internal - external price difference. The medium - and long - term prospects for US cotton are positive, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center in China is expected to rise [3] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction of planting area and potential reserve - selling policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,343 yuan/ton, a change of - 63 yuan/ton (- 1.17%) from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,310 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton [4] - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a 440,900 - ton increase year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar futures price has rebounded due to rising oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed. Domestically, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The previous sugar price increase was mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement. In the short term, it should be treated with a volatile mindset [6][7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 48 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from the previous day [8] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,065 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Trend**: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to weaken, with different price trends for different types of pulp [8] Market Analysis - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals are weak, and the pulp price may remain in low - level consolidation in the short term [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 15,000 in the short - term [7] - The cost support for butadiene rubber remains strong due to the impact of the Middle East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the continuous strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. With high capacity utilization, increasing downstream demand, and upcoming plant maintenance, spot - end inventory is expected to decline significantly. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy**: The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 13,500 - 15,000 range [7] - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared this week, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 - 14,100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: The cost support is strong. With high capacity utilization, downstream demand is increasing. After the Spring Festival, downstream procurement demand has gradually picked up, and the negotiation focus has risen. With some plant maintenance in late March, spot - end inventory is expected to decline. However, the Middle East conflict may limit the increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization [8] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 15.71% [12] - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in a summarized form in the content - **Inter - month Spread**: As of March 6, the 4 - 5 spread of butadiene rubber was 105 [18] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 6, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 18,930 tons, an increase of 390 tons from last week [21] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Price**: As of March 5, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton from last week [27] - **Basis**: As of March 5, the butadiene rubber basis was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of March 5, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 774.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 137.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 US dollars/ton, an increase of 140 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of March 6, the butadiene weekly capacity utilization rate was 76.28%, an increase of 0.99% from last week, and the port inventory was 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [33] 3.3.2. Butadiene Rubber Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In February 2026, butadiene rubber production was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber weekly capacity utilization rate was 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week [36] - **Production Profit**: As of March 5, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton from last week [39] - **Inventory**: As of March 6, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 43,420 tons, a decrease of 10,050 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons from last week [43] 3.3.3. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. The Middle East conflict may limit the increase in capacity utilization [46] - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January - December 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Methanol**: In the short - term, the supply - demand remains loose, inventory pressure persists, and the fundamental situation is weak. Geopolitical conflicts bring high uncertainty and import reduction expectations. The short - term futures price will be driven by geopolitical risks, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside. In the long - term, the weak fundamentals are hard to change. After the geopolitical disturbances subside, the futures price will return to the fundamentals, and methanol may experience a correction [28]. - **Plastic**: In the short - term, demand is in the recovery stage, and the fundamentals are strengthening marginally. Geopolitical conflicts provide some support to the cost side. There may still be upward momentum, but attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and whether demand recovery meets expectations. In the long - term, demand and operating loads are rising, and inventory may enter the destocking stage. After the geopolitical sentiment cools down, there may be a partial correction, but the fundamentals support a relatively strong operation. However, the overall terminal demand is weak, and high production restricts the upside [29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the futures price of MA2605 rose from 2179 yuan/ton to 2586 yuan/ton, an increase of 18.68%; the MA basis decreased from - 27 yuan/ton to - 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 144.44%. The price of methanol in Taicang rose from 2206.2 yuan/ton to 2450.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.08%; the CFR price of methanol rose from 264.5 dollars/ton to 292.33 dollars/ton, an increase of 10.52% [2]. Supply - As of March 5, the domestic methanol operating rate was 91.65%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points compared with the previous period; the output was 2.0474 million tons, a decrease of 23,900 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.16%. This week, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance was 750,000 tons/year, and the recovered production capacity was 600,000 tons/year. Next week, Chongqing Carbide and Guangju New Materials are expected to resume production, with a total recovered production capacity of 1.45 million tons/year, and the operating rate may rise [9]. Demand - As of March 5, the olefin operating rate remained stable at 84.08%. The sharp rise in methanol prices brought cost pressure. Under economic losses, the resumption plans of previously shut - down devices may be postponed, and overall demand maintained a rigid level. The operating rates of other traditional downstream industries increased slightly, but the support was limited, and the demand continued to be weak [12]. Inventory - As of March 4, the port inventory was 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3182 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 0.22%; the inland inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 3.1%. The arrival volume decreased slightly, but the port only saw a slight reduction in inventory under the weak demand pattern. The expected reduction in imports due to the Iran conflict has not yet materialized, while the inland continued to accumulate inventory, increasing inventory pressure and suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [15]. Plastic Price - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the futures price of L2605 rose from 6597 yuan/ton to 7691 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.58%; the L basis decreased from - 47 yuan/ton to - 261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455.32%. The price of LLDPE rose from 6520 yuan/ton to 7430 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.96%; the price of HDPE rose from 6950 yuan/ton to 7950 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.39%; the price of LDPE rose from 8600 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.93% [2]. Supply - As of March 5, the domestic plastic operating rate was 86.9%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points compared with the previous period; the output was 720,700 tons, a decrease of 8700 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 1.19%. This week, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance was about 750,000 tons/year, and the recovered production capacity was about 300,000 tons/year. The operating rate is expected to recover next week [18]. Demand - As of March 5, the downstream operating rate was 28.62%, an increase of 10.4 percentage points compared with the previous period. The operating rates of agricultural film and packaging film increased significantly, and they fully entered the resumption stage, with marginal improvement in the fundamentals. The short - term demand support still has room for improvement [22]. Inventory - As of March 4, the social inventory was 673,400 tons, an increase of 75,600 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 12.65%; the inventory of two major oil companies was 452,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 2.16%. The trading atmosphere was good, and the inventory gradually transferred to traders. However, downstream users were still resistant to high prices, and the inventory gradually accumulated in the middle, resulting in an increase in social inventory and a decrease in enterprise inventory. The inventory structure showed differentiation. It is expected that the destocking cycle will start with the resumption of downstream production in the next period [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will turn from weak to strong. The news has a significant positive impact on international energy and coal - coke prices. From a fundamental perspective, the obvious reduction of coke and coking coal inventories is conducive to the bottom - up rebound of coal - coke prices, and the increase in production by coking enterprises will also bring a positive cycle of cost and price. However, attention should be paid to the start - up rhythm and intensity of downstream steel demand and how to resolve the contradiction with low steel production [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On March 2, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures 2605 first declined and then rose. The JM2605 contract once approached the low on January 6 but then recovered the decline of the day. The closing price of J2605 was 1652 yuan/ton, up 1.38%, with a trading volume of 18,576 lots and an open interest of 40,374 lots. The closing price of JM2605 was 1094 yuan/ton, up 1.06%, with a trading volume of 896,153 lots and an open interest of 545,543 lots, a decrease of 4,204 lots [5]. - In terms of the spot market on March 2, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, with no change. The summary price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Linfen decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 1520 yuan/ton, while other regions remained unchanged [7]. - Technically, on March 2, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2605 contract changed from sticky to rising; the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2605 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2605 contracts changed from expanding for two consecutive trading days to narrowing [7]. 3.2 Future Outlook - News: On February 28 (local time), the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran, affecting the Hormuz Strait, leading to a significant increase in international crude oil prices and a resurgence in precious metal prices. On February 25, some steel mills in Tangshan received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions, requiring enterprises to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load to be independently reduced by no less than 30%. Also on February 25, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to significantly relax the purchase restriction policy for non - Shanghai residents [9]. - Fundamentals: In the past three weeks, independent coking enterprises have continued to experience small losses, but their coke production has increased, returning to the level in mid - December last year. Port coke inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, ending an eight - week upward trend. Steel mill coke inventories have also declined for two consecutive weeks, returning to the level before the end of January. Coking enterprise coke inventories have significantly increased, reaching a new high since early July last year. Since February 23, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has returned to the normal level of 156,000 - 199,000 tons, but the coking coal inventories of steel mills and coking plants have significantly decreased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - The China Automobile Dealers Association stated that in February 2026, automobile terminal retail sales were under significant pressure. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the effective sales days were reduced, and store traffic decreased sharply. 76.8% of dealers reported that their February sales did not meet the target. After the implementation of the "Compliance Guidelines for Price Behavior in the Automobile Industry", 25.6% of dealers said the price inversion situation had improved, and 20.7% of dealers saw an increase in profitability [11]. - Tensions in the Middle East: On February 28 (local time), the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced a ban on any ships passing through the Hormuz Strait. An oil tanker was hit and began to sink on March 1. The global shipping situation has been affected, with major shipping companies avoiding the Persian Gulf, and some ports and airlines suspending operations. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced on March 1 that eight major oil - producing countries decided to increase daily production by 206,000 barrels in April. Thailand plans to suspend fuel exports and take measures to ensure domestic energy supply [11][12][13]. - The World Stainless Steel Association data shows that in 2025, the global stainless steel crude steel production was 64.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. Asian production increased by 2.7% year - on - year, EU production decreased by 1.9%, US production increased by 7.6%, and production in other countries decreased by 11.3% [13]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average hot metal production, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [15][16][17].

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side [1][5]. - The recent "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The supply in Iran, a major import source, is severely disrupted. The reduction of domestic port methanol inventory has led to the recovery of port spot prices and stronger basis, which has boosted bullish confidence in the futures market. It's predicted that domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong pattern on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - period Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is in an oscillatory state [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is on the strong side [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The digestion of bearish sentiment has led to the stabilization of methanol's oscillation [1]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply, especially the supply disruption in Iran, is the key support for the upward movement of methanol prices. The reduction of domestic port inventory has driven the recovery of spot prices, strengthened the basis, and enhanced bullish confidence in the futures market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The trends include narrow - range fluctuations, wide - range fluctuations, weak fluctuations, high - level fluctuations, and slight price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Price Trend**: Expected to experience a game between expectations and reality, with narrow - range fluctuations in ore prices [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.70% from the previous day. The positions decreased by 1,835 lots. Among spot prices, the prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, and others all declined, while the prices of domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value. Some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies still need to report financial indicators [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts decreased. The trading volume and positions of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. Spot prices in various regions generally declined. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of January 29th, the output of rebar increased by 0.28 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.8 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 23.43 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 9.12 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.45 tons. In December, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while the output of hot - continuous rolling mills and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased. In January 2026, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, the average daily output of pig iron increased by 1.8% month - on - month, and the average daily output of steel increased by 3.0% month - on - month. The steel inventory of key enterprises increased. The social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. BHP Billiton's first - half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in iron ore contracts with China. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in volume and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Trend**: Ferrosilicon is expected to have weak fluctuations due to the loosening of cost expectations, and silicomanganese is expected to have weak fluctuations due to commodity sentiment resonance [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese and the price of manganese ore also changed. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads all showed certain trends [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of coal - fired power units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity prices will be increased to at least 50%. The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Hebei Iron and Steel Group finalized the February purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon. In January, the number of operating silicon - manganese furnaces in Inner Mongolia increased, and the output increased. The average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the output decreased. As of January 30th, the manganese ore inventory increased [11][12][13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Trend**: Both are expected to have high - level fluctuations [2][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts increased. The trading volume and positions of coking coal increased, while those of coke decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke showed different changes. The basis and spreads also changed [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 3rd, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed a decline in the price of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal. The coking coal online auction on February 3rd had a 21% non - sale rate, and the average premium was 38.06 yuan/ton. The purchase sentiment improved, and the overall transaction showed an upward trend [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [18]. Thermal Coal - **Price Trend**: The supply and demand are in a weak balance, and the coal price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][19]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of thermal coal in different regions and ports showed different changes, and the overseas prices also changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 3rd, the trading in the northern port market was sluggish, and the prices were basically stable. Market participants had different views on the post - holiday market. The coal price in the main production areas was weak. There was news that the RKAB approval of Indonesian coal had new progress, and if confirmed, it might support the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on improving the power - generation - side capacity price mechanism [19][20]. Logs - **Price Trend**: Expected to have a slight price increase [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts showed different changes. The prices of log spot markets in different regions were basically stable, with only a few showing slight increases [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value. Some real - estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies still need to report financial indicators [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic large feed groups have completed pre - holiday stockpiling in advance, with weak subsequent purchasing willingness. The market is interested in far - month basis contracts. Near the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventory will be passively reduced, but the large supply of Brazilian new crops and sufficient domestic forward arrivals will suppress price increases. The decline of US soybeans will also weaken the support for domestic soybean meal futures prices [5]. - Palm oil futures prices are running strongly driven by import costs and market sentiment. However, the supply is expected to be loose with the continuous procurement of near - month shipments, which will limit the strengthening space of the basis, and the near - month basis may decline. After continuous rises, the short - term palm oil futures prices will experience increased high - level volatility [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The completion of pre - holiday stockpiling by large feed groups, interest in far - month basis contracts, passive inventory reduction near the Spring Festival, large Brazilian new - crop supply, sufficient domestic forward arrivals, and the decline of US soybeans [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillatory weak; Reference view: oscillatory weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The upward trend driven by import costs and market sentiment, the expected supply loosening due to near - month shipment procurement, and high - level volatility after continuous rises [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and northern - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and tapping cessation, with overseas raw material prices likely to rise and cost support strengthening. - Demand remains weak. Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a high proportion of European exports are operating at a relatively high level, but domestic sales are slow. - Inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short term [1]. Polyolefins - Affected by capital rotation and geopolitical tensions, prices are relatively strong. - From a static perspective, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is being depleted. Upstream inventory is low and there is a strong willingness to hold prices, but there are issues such as proxy reselling at a loss. - Dynamically, PP's supply pressure is relieved due to more overhauls, while PE's standard product pressure increases and downstream demand enters the off - season [2]. LPG No clear view on price trends is provided in the report. Only price, inventory, and upstream - downstream开工率 data are presented [3]. Urea - Supply is sufficient as the daily output has reached a high level after the resumption of previous maintenance devices. - Demand is weak. Industrial procurement is sporadic, and agricultural demand has limited pulling effect. - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: The futures market is expected to be weak and volatile due to supply - demand imbalance, high inventory, and weak demand. - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation has not improved, and the price is expected to oscillate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the range of 4,820 - 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals are generally weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. - **Glass**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures price is expected to be in a weak - oscillation trend. Attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the port inventory is high. The price is expected to face pressure at high levels. - **Styrene**: The short - term price is relatively strong, but the supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the price is expected to face pressure at high levels [8]. Crude Oil The recent oil price trend is dominated by news such as the Middle - East geopolitical situation and the US cold snap. Short - term geopolitical premiums and supply losses support the oil price increase. Attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [10]. Methanol The methanol market has a weak supply - demand situation. The inventory in inland factories is being depleted, but high production suppresses the rebound space. Port inventory is slightly accumulating, and the demand for MTO is weak. The price rebound is limited [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: It is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is still bullish in the medium term. - **PTA**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate within the range of 5,100 - 5,400 yuan/ton and is bullish in the medium term. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term and strong in the long term. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price follows raw material fluctuations. - **Bottle - chip**: The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price and processing fee follow the cost side [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of most varieties decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, except for the prices of cup rubber and glue, which increased slightly. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of most contracts decreased, with the exception of the 1 - 5 spread, which increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November 2025, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India showed different trends. The production of China increased. The tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume in December 2025 all increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, while the general - trade inbound rate increased [1]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads of some contracts also changed. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The PE device开工率 increased, while the PE downstream加权开工率 decreased. The PP device开工率 increased slightly, while the PP powder开工率 decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [2]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of most LPG contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio increased, while the port inventory and storage - capacity ratio decreased. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - main refinery开工率 increased, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - production ratio decreased, and the downstream - PDH开工率 decreased significantly [3]. Urea - **Futures Price and Spread**: The prices of most contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only slight changes in a few. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of most downstream products remained stable. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea increased, the inventory decreased, and the order days of production enterprises decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of most PVC and caustic - soda contracts and spot products decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry开工率 increased slightly, while the PVC total开工率 decreased slightly. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic - soda downstream industries decreased, while the开工率 of some PVC downstream products increased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC changed to different extents [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda - ash contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The basis increased. - **Supply**: The soda - ash开工率 and weekly production decreased slightly, while the float - glass daily melting volume increased slightly. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased slightly, while the soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased slightly. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new - construction area, completion area, and sales area improved, while the construction area decreased [7]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and pure benzene changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads also changed. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene contracts and spot decreased slightly. The spreads and cash - flows changed. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flow**: The cash - flows of downstream products such as phenol and styrene changed. - **Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene increased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains changed to different extents [8]. Crude Oil - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26, while the SC crude - oil price decreased. The spreads also changed. - **Refined - Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of most refined - oil products increased, and the spreads changed. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of most refined - oil products changed [10]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol contracts decreased on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. The spreads and basis changed significantly. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory decreased, while the port and social inventories increased slightly. - **Upstream - Downstream开工率**: The upstream - domestic enterprise开工率 decreased slightly, while the downstream - some device开工率 changed to different extents [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed on January 27, 2026, compared with January 26. - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - flow**: The prices and cash - flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PX contracts and spot changed. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of PTA contracts and spot decreased. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The prices and spreads of MEG contracts and spot decreased. - **Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation decreased. - **Industrial Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most industries in the polyester industrial chain decreased [16].

Group 1 - The main contract for coking coal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1749.0 yuan, with a current price of 1722.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.59% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends for coking coal and coking prices, with some expecting a slight rebound and others predicting a volatile but generally strong trend [2][3] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted a slight rebound in coking coal prices, with overall coking profits being average and daily production slightly decreasing, while coking coal inventory saw a minor increase [2] - WISCO Futures assessed that the overall balance between coking coal, coking, and downstream iron water remains stable, but steel companies currently have low expectations for future market conditions, leading to a cautious inventory strategy [3] - The market sentiment is influenced by expectations regarding coal-related policies, despite an increase in coal inventory and stable iron water levels, indicating a focus on "anti-involution" impacts [2]