1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and slightly rebounding on Wednesday. However, the continuation of the rise is weak and the space is limited [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price of domestic and foreign crude oil futures is expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% [9]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [10]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8633 million tons [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 172 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the inland methanol inventory totaled 295,700 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4% [13]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract was 2,424 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of crude oil was 456.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract was 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, crude oil basis, etc. [15][27][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 煤炭价格走弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年08月18日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 短期强支撑位：65000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 当前矿证问题炒作有过热嫌疑，建议重点关注锂盐企业生产情况、《中华人民共和国矿产资源法》以及《江 西省绿色矿山管理办法》。 当前市场存在两个逻辑：主要逻辑在于宏观情绪及供给端矿证问题的扰动（盐湖端和江西锂矿的矿证问题还 未有定论时，市场可频繁炒作）带动期货价格反弹时，为锂盐企业创造了一定的利润窗口，并刺激生产积极 性释放，进而带动锂矿石的消耗，推动锂矿库存下降并带动锂矿价格的上涨，形成"期货上涨-产能释放-矿 耗增加-矿价跟涨"的阶梯式上涨链条，并随着企业利润的逐渐增加，未来开工率将逐渐上涨，并进一步 ...

Research Views - Corn is expected to fluctuate weakly. On Thursday, the September contract of corn stabilized with a technical rebound, and the night - session price continued to rise. The national corn price was weak, with the domestic average price at 2388 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The short - term resistance for the September contract is at 2260 - 2280 yuan/ton, and the medium - term outlook is weak [2]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose due to low - price - stimulated demand. The net sales of US soybeans last week were 101.28 million tons, higher than expected. In the domestic market, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose, and the night - session rapeseed meal increased by over 2%. The strategy is to hold long positions in soybean meal and participate in 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell due to increased inventory and production and weak demand. In the domestic market, the three major oils showed a strong trend. The strategy is to hold long positions and sell put options [2]. - The price of eggs is expected to fluctuate. On Thursday, the main 2509 contract of eggs rose slightly by 0.38%. The spot price decreased. The short - term fundamentals are weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future. However, the short - term market sentiment is bearish [2]. - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate strongly. On Thursday, the live pig futures continued to rebound. The spot price decreased due to oversupply. Policy support exists, and short - term long positions can be held cautiously [3]. Market Information - Fed Governor Waller is becoming a top candidate for Fed Chair as Trump's advisers search for Powell's successor [4]. - As of the week ending August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [4]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to reach 8.15 million tons, up from 7.98 million tons last year [4]. - The US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 468,000 tons, and the 2025/2026 net sales were 545,000 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts on the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean No.1, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report provides charts on the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][18][24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 2390.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1] Supply Side - According to Zhonghui Futures, the recovery of previously shut down facilities and increased operational loads of overseas methanol plants are raising supply-side pressure expectations [1] - Recently, facilities from Ningxia Baofeng and Hualu Hengsheng (600426) are under maintenance with no recovery yet, while next week, maintenance at Gansu Huating, Xinjiang Guanghui, Shenhua Xilaifeng, and Shanxi Lubao methanol plants is expected to conclude [1] - Overall operational loads of overseas facilities remain high [1] Demand Side - According to Ruida Futures, the restart of the Zhongmei Mengda olefin plant last week has led to an increase in operational loads, while Zhejiang Xingxing's plant is still offline, slightly boosting the olefin industry's operational rates [1] - Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to resume operations this week, indicating potential for further increases in the olefin industry's operational capacity [1] Inventory - As of July 31, coastal methanol inventories stood at 915,000 tons, which is above the historical average, having increased by 45,000 tons (5.17%) compared to July 24, and down 2.76% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Donghai Futures suggests that the "anti-involution" trend is cooling, leading to a correction in industrial products [1] - The rising coal prices provide some support for methanol, but the restart of facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits are putting pressure on supply and demand [1] - The 2509 contract is approaching its delivery month, aligning closely with spot market logic, and prices are expected to remain weak and volatile [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

Core Insights - Palm oil futures have experienced a high-level reduction in positions, leading to a decline in prices, raising questions about whether demand is weak or if there are other underlying issues [1] Group 1 - The palm oil futures market is currently witnessing a significant reduction in open positions, which has contributed to a downward trend in prices [1] - There is speculation regarding the potential peak of palm oil prices, as the market grapples with the implications of reduced demand [1] - Analysts are questioning whether the observed price decline is solely due to weak demand or if there are additional factors at play influencing the market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a short-term rebound in PTA due to cost and policy support, market attention is shifting towards the effective capacity that is truly impacted, suggesting potential for future price increases [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's exports surged by 50% in May, leading to a reduction in palm oil inventory to 2.9 million tons [1] - Institutions anticipate that India's replenishment demand will continue into the third quarter [1] - The question remains whether the favorable conditions for palm oil will be sufficient to help prices break through upper resistance levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main article discusses the recent performance of coking coal futures, highlighting a 6.33% increase in the main contract during the night session, driven by slow resumption of operations and low inventory levels, raising questions about future price trends [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures saw a significant rise of 6.33% in the main contract during the night trading session [1] - The increase in prices is attributed to a combination of slow recovery in operations and low inventory levels [1] Group 2: Future Price Outlook - The article raises the question of whether prices will continue to rise in the future due to the current market conditions [1]