Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][11]. Core Insights - The company's revenue and profit have shown robust growth, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business [11]. - The report highlights that the company's Q2 2025 performance exceeded expectations, benefiting from a stable competitive landscape and improved marketing efficiency [2][11]. - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted to grow from 44,562 in 2023 to 78,490 in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.28% [4]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 13,071 in 2023 to 22,721 in 2027, with a significant growth of 910.12% in 2023 [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise from 13,975 in 2023 to 23,342 in 2027, indicating a steady increase in profitability [4]. Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.23%, and a net profit of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [11]. - The breakdown of revenue sources shows hotel bookings growing by 21.2%, transportation tickets by 10.8%, and group tours by 5.3% [11]. - The company has maintained a stable profit margin, with adjusted EBITDA margin projected at 29.6% for 2025 [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to outperform its competitors, with a target market capitalization of 476.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 731 HKD per share [11]. - The report notes that the company's market share is increasing, particularly in the hotel sector, despite a relatively stable performance in outbound travel [11].

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group (09961) maintains a strong growth trajectory with robust revenue and profit increases, driven primarily by hotel bookings and international business, leading to an "overweight" rating from Guotai Junan [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, Ctrip achieved revenue of 14.864 billion RMB, a 16.23% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.864 billion RMB, up 26.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at 18.325 billion RMB, 20.660 billion RMB, and 22.721 billion RMB respectively [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was 4.880 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% increase, while adjusted operating profit rose by 10.4% to 4.668 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources showed significant growth: accommodation bookings increased by 21.2%, transportation ticketing by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues surged by 31% [1] - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, indicating a low double-digit growth potential, while outbound business remained stable [1] Group 3: Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Ctrip's market share is reportedly increasing, with high growth rates in revenue aligning with previously tracked high-frequency data trends [1] - The company has maintained a stable sales expense ratio despite increased marketing investments, indicating effective cost management [2] - International business continues to show over 50% revenue growth, with significant contributions from markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where Ctrip holds the leading market share [2]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with robust revenue and profit growth driven by hotel bookings and international business, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 183.25 billion, 206.60 billion, and 227.21 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Ctrip achieved revenue of RMB 14.864 billion, a 16.23% increase, and a net profit of RMB 4.864 billion, up 26.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was RMB 5.011 billion, reflecting a 0.5% increase, while adjusted EBITDA and operating profit grew by 10% and 10.4% respectively [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources showed significant growth: accommodation bookings increased by 21.2%, transportation ticketing by 10.8%, group tours by 5.3%, business travel by 9.3%, and other revenues by 31% [1] - Domestic hotel performance outpaced transportation, with a low double-digit growth rate, while outbound business remained stable [1] Market Position and Competition - Ctrip's market share is increasing, with high revenue growth aligning with previously tracked high-frequency data trends, and no significant impact from Agoda's competition observed [1] - The competitive landscape remains stable, supporting Ctrip's profit stability, with overseas business showing over 50% revenue growth and approaching a 15% share of total revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Management - Profitability is steadily improving, with unexpected profit mainly driven by sales expenses, which remained stable year-on-year despite increased marketing investments [2] - Ctrip has maintained multiple quarters of rising profit margins, indicating a favorable competitive environment and successful overseas expansion [2]