金属期权 2025-11-20 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: November 18, 2025 [1] - Report type: Metal options strategy morning report - Research team members: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan, Li Renjun [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Construct a seller neutral volatility strategy for non - ferrous metals as they tend to move upwards [2] - Build a short - volatility portfolio strategy for the black series due to their large - amplitude fluctuations [2] - Create a bull spread portfolio strategy for precious metals as they rebound and rise [2] Group 4: Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts are presented, such as copper (CU2512), aluminum (AL2512), etc. [3] Group 5: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options are analyzed, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Group 6: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are determined from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [5] Group 7: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc., are provided [6] Group 8: Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: Construct a call option bull spread strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy with a long position, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Build a short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Series - **Rebar**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron ore**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short position and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Build a short - volatility strategy for manganese silicon [14] - **Industrial silicon**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15] Group 9: Option Charts - Option charts of various metals, including price trends, volume and open interest distributions, PCR trends, implied volatility trends, historical volatility cones, etc., are presented [16][38][56]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided to suspend all non-USD denominated metal options trading, reflecting the fragility of the current international pricing system dominated by a single currency and market [1][2]. Group 1: LME's Decision and Market Impact - The LME's announcement on November 3 indicated that non-USD denominated metal options contracts had "long-term lack of liquidity," leading to the suspension effective November 10 [1]. - Following the announcement, there was a significant market reaction, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's metal contracts hitting the limit up, while LME's USD contracts faced a rare limit down, creating the largest price differential since 1987 [1][3]. Group 2: Background and Challenges to the USD System - The USD system is facing unprecedented challenges, with U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion and real yields on U.S. Treasuries failing to cover inflation costs for major holders [2]. - There is a noticeable trend of foreign central banks diversifying their reserve assets, reflecting a decline in confidence in the USD [2]. - The U.S. is also pushing for a "critical minerals alliance" among G7 countries and others, aiming to reinforce the USD's dominance in metal pricing [2]. Group 3: Implications for Global Metal Trading - The LME's actions may strengthen the USD's position in the short term but also accelerate the fragmentation of the global metal trading system [3]. - Companies in Europe and Asia will face increased currency risk and transaction costs due to the loss of non-USD hedging tools [3]. - There are signs of capital shifting towards regional platforms like Shanghai and Dubai, indicating a potential reallocation of global liquidity [3]. Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The LME's announcement presents both challenges and opportunities for Chinese enterprises, with potential short-term pressures on hedging tools and costs [3]. - China's significant consumption of copper and control over a large share of electrolytic aluminum production positions it to gain more pricing power in the long term [3]. - The development of financial infrastructure and initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative may enable China to establish a more autonomous pricing system [3]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of enforced currency unification have often led to unintended consequences, suggesting that the current overemphasis on the USD may generate strong demand for alternatives [4]. - The transformation of the global metal trading system will require a deep coupling with the real economy to achieve a new balance [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different option strategies are recommended for selected varieties in each sector based on market analysis, option factor research, and specific investment goals [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the overall market shows various trends such as upward, oscillatory, and downward. Option strategies are designed according to each metal's fundamentals, market trends, and option factors [7][9][10][11]. - Precious metals like gold and silver have their own market trends affected by factors such as government policies. Appropriate option strategies are proposed to deal with market fluctuations [12]. - Black metals, including steel products, iron ore, and alloys, also present different market conditions, and corresponding option strategies are provided [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures are presented. For example, copper (CU2512) is priced at 86,680, down 0.64%; aluminum (AL2512) is at 21,730, down 0.82%; and so on [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to analyze market trends and turning points. For instance, copper's volume PCR is 0.39 with a - 0.01 change, and open interest PCR is 0.79 with a - 0.02 change [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels of each option variety are determined based on the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, copper's pressure point is 90,000 and support point is 84,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, are provided for each option variety. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 14.86%, and weighted implied volatility is 18.88% with a 0.24 change [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies for Each Metal 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on its fundamentals and market trends, a short - volatility option selling strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended. For example, construct a short - volatility option combination like S_CU2512P86000, S_CU2512P84000, S_CU2512C88000, S_CU2512C90000, and a spot long - hedging strategy with LONG_CU2512 + BUY_CU2512P84000 + SELL_CU2512C88000 [7]. - **Aluminum**: A bullish option bull - spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy are suggested. For example, use S_AL2512C21200, S_AL2512C21600 for the bull - spread strategy, and LONG_AL2512 + BUY_AL2512P21200 + SELL_AL2512C22000 for the spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: A short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot collar strategy are proposed. For example, construct S_ZN2512P22000, S_ZN2512P22200, S_ZN2512C22600, S_ZN2512C22800 for the short - option combination, and LONG_ZN2512 + BUY_ZN2512P22400 + SELL_ZN2512C22800 for the spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: A short - option combination strategy with a bearish delta and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended. For example, use S_NI2512P116000, S_NI2512P118000, S_NI2512C122000, S_NI2512C124000 for the short - option combination, and LONG_NI2512 + SELL_NI2512C122000 for the spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: A short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested. For example, use S_SN2512P285000 and S_SN2512C300000 for the short - volatility strategy, and LONG_SN2512 + BUY_SN2512P290000 + SELL_SN2512C300000 for the spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: A short - option combination strategy with a bullish delta and a spot long - hedging strategy are recommended. For example, construct S_LC2601P84000, S_LC2601P85000, S_LC2601C87000, S_LC2601C88000 for the short - option combination, and LONG_LC2601 + BUY_LC2601P86000 + SELL_LC2601C89000 for the spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: A short - volatility option selling strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy are proposed. For example, use S_AU2512P944, S_AU2512P952, S_AU2512C968, S_AU2512C976 for the short - volatility option selling strategy, and LONG_AU2512 + BUY_AU2512P960 + SELL_AU2512C984 for the spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: A short - option combination strategy with a bearish delta and a spot covered - call strategy are recommended. For example, use S_RB2601P2950 and S_RB2601C3050 for the short - option combination, and LONG_RB2601 + SELL_RB2601C3100 for the spot covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: A short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot collar strategy are suggested. For example, construct S_I2601P750, S_I2601P760, S_I2601C760, S_I2601C770 for the short - option combination, and LONG_I2601 + BUY_I2601P760 + SELL_I2601C800 for the spot collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: Short - volatility strategies are recommended for manganese silicon. For example, use S_SM2512P5700 and S_SM2512C5800 for the short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A short - option combination strategy with a neutral delta and a spot hedging strategy are proposed. For example, use S_SI2601P9100, S_SI2601P9200, S_SI2601C9200, S_SI2512C9300 for the short - option combination, and LONG_SI2601 + BUY_SI2601P9200 + SELL_SI2601C9600 for the spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: A short - volatility option selling strategy and a spot collar strategy are suggested. For example, use S_FG2601P1020 and S_FG2601C1060 for the short - volatility option selling strategy, and LONG_FG2601 + BUY_FG2601P1040 + SELL_FG2601C1100 for the spot collar strategy [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides an early morning outlook for metal options on November 14, 2025. It suggests different strategies for various metal sectors: constructing a neutral volatility selling strategy for non - ferrous metals with a bullish upward trend; a short - volatility combination strategy for the black series with large - amplitude fluctuations; and a bull spread combination strategy for precious metals experiencing a rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Prices and Changes**: Various metal futures showed different price movements. For example, copper (CU2512) was at 87,400 with a 0.08% increase; aluminum (AL2512) was at 22,025 with a 0.39% increase; zinc (ZN2512) was at 22,635 with a 0.09% decrease [3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: There were also changes in trading volume and open interest. For instance, copper had a trading volume of 10.23 million lots (a 2.60 million - lot increase) and an open interest of 20.10 million lots (a 0.02 million - lot increase) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different metals had different PCR values. For example, copper's volume PCR was 0.40 (a 0.22 decrease), and its open interest PCR was 0.81 (a 0.03 increase) [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: From the perspective of option factors, each metal had its own pressure and support levels. For example, copper's pressure point was 90,000 and its support point was 84,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility also varied among metals. For example, copper's at - the - money implied volatility was 16.57%, and its weighted implied volatility was 18.63% (a 1.83 increase) [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on the analysis of fundamentals, market trends, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - volatility selling option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Suggestions include constructing a bull spread combination strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: Recommendations are to build a short - neutral volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: It is advised to create a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: Strategies involve a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggestions are to construct a short - neutral volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: It is recommended to build a short - neutral volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. - **Black Series** - **Rebar**: Strategies include a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Recommendations are to construct a short - bearish volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon)**: A short - volatility strategy is suggested [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is advised to build a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy [14]. - **Glass**: Strategies involve a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [15].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has abruptly suspended all non-U.S. dollar-denominated metal options trading, forcing global traders to transact in U.S. dollars only, which is seen as a desperate reaction to the rising challenge of the Chinese yuan in the metal trading market [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Dollar Dominance - The LME's decision is interpreted as a significant blow to the dollar's dominance in global commodity pricing, particularly as the exchange has historically been a key pillar of U.S. dollar hegemony [1][3]. - The dollar's dominance relies on three pillars: settlement, reserve, and pricing, with the LME being central to the pricing pillar [3]. - The LME's operations have allowed U.S. capital to benefit from fluctuations in interest rates, leading to significant profits for Wall Street firms during periods of low interest rates [3][4]. Group 2: Changes in Global Metal Trading - The rise of Chinese manufacturing has shifted the landscape, with China controlling over 70% of rare earth oxide production and significant shares of other metals, establishing itself as the largest metal consumer globally [7]. - Since 2022, the trading volume of metal options denominated in yuan has surged, with a 900% increase in market share, indicating a growing acceptance of the yuan in international metal transactions [7]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has reported that yuan-denominated copper futures have the largest open interest globally, surpassing that of the LME [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the LME's announcement, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a significant increase in trading volume, while the LME experienced unusual trading halts, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [8][10]. - The Dubai Commodity Exchange plans to launch yuan-denominated copper futures in 2026, further solidifying the yuan's role in the market [8]. - Market participants are increasingly viewing U.S. dollar-denominated metals as less favorable compared to those priced in yuan, indicating a potential shift in trading preferences [10].

Core Viewpoint - The sudden decision by the London Metal Exchange (LME) to halt all non-U.S. dollar-denominated metal options trading is perceived as a strategic move against the rising influence of the Chinese yuan, signaling a potential shift in the global financial order [3][12][30] Group 1: LME's Role and Impact - The LME has historically functioned as a key component of the U.S. dollar's dominance in global finance, acting as a "wealth amplifier" to maintain U.S. hegemony [5][12] - The LME's pricing system dictates the value of industrial metals globally, reinforcing the dollar's role in commodity pricing [5][14] - The LME's operations have facilitated a wealth transfer mechanism that benefits U.S. financial markets at the expense of manufacturing nations [7][9] Group 2: China's Rising Influence - China is positioned as a formidable challenger to the LME, leveraging its industrial strength and trade volume to reshape the pricing dynamics of metals [12][14] - The trading volume of yuan-denominated metal options has surged by 900% from 30,000 contracts to 270,000 contracts over the past three years, indicating a significant shift towards yuan-based transactions [14][20] - Major resource-exporting countries are increasingly adopting yuan for trade, with over 30% of mineral exports to China now settled in yuan [16][20] Group 3: LME's Reaction and Consequences - The LME's abrupt rule change to exclude yuan-denominated trading is seen as a desperate attempt to maintain its influence, reflecting a lack of confidence in its traditional market dominance [18][22] - This move has inadvertently accelerated the market's shift towards the yuan, as evidenced by a dramatic increase in trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange following the LME's announcement [25][27] - The widening price gap between LME and Shanghai copper contracts highlights the growing divide between speculative financial practices and real industrial demand [25][29] Group 4: Future Outlook - The LME's actions may signify the beginning of a transition to a "post-LME era," where the center of gravity in metal trading shifts from London to Shanghai [29][30] - The historical parallels drawn with the decline of the British pound post-Suez Crisis suggest that the dollar's dominance in metal markets may also be waning [27][30]

金属期权 2025-11-12 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属区间震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位回落连续大幅下跌，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

不仅暂停人民币、欧元、日元、瑞士法郎等货币计价的金属期权交易，就连英国人自己的货币——英镑也被暂停，只有美元可以。这就是伦敦金属交易所 （LME）在近期发布的公告内容核心，高度舔美。 给出的理由看似合理，实质却很奇葩 当全球的交易员在11月初打开伦敦金属交易所（LME）的最新公告时，他们看到的不仅是一则业务调整通知，更像是一纸来自旧金融秩序的"最后通牒"。 这份注定将掀起波澜的声明宣布：自11月10日起，这家全球最大的有色金属交易中心将全面暂停所有非美元计价的金属期权交易。这意味着人民币、欧元、 日元乃至交易所所在地的本国货币——英镑。 都将从这一核心金融舞台上黯然离场，美元将成为铜、铝、锌、镍、铅等基本金属合约唯一被认可的计价和结算货币。 不仅如此，伦敦金属交易所还将这一堪称激进的举措披上了"市场化优化"的外衣，声称非美元合约长期成交低迷，维持运行的成本已高于收益。 这些鲜活的数字勾勒出一个与伦敦金属交易所论断截然相反的动态现实——非美元货币，特别是人民币，并非缺乏活力，反而正展现出蓬勃的生命力。 因此，分析人士普遍认为：这绝非一次简单的业务整合，而是一场精心策划的"金融围剿"。根本目的，在于利用伦敦金属交 ...

金属期权 2025-11-11 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属区间震荡，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位回落连续大幅下跌，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...