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顺鑫农业(000860):需求平淡 盈利承压
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-30 00:52
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak consumer demand and falling prices in both the pork and liquor segments [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 25H1, total revenue was 4.59 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 170 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 180 million, representing year-on-year declines of 19.2%, 59.1%, and 57.9% respectively [1]. - For 25Q2, total revenue was 1.33 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders and net profit excluding non-recurring items at -110 million and -100 million, compared to -30 million in the same period last year [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 34.3% in 25H1, with a more significant drop in 25Q2 to 28.4% [3]. Group 2: Business Segments - The liquor segment generated revenue of 3.61 billion in 25H1, down 23.2% year-on-year, with high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues at 530 million, 500 million, and 2.58 billion respectively, reflecting declines of 12.3%, 21.9%, and 25.4% [2]. - The pork segment maintained revenue at 890 million in 25H1, with slaughtering business revenue at 780 million, showing a slight decline of 0.5% [2]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The company is focusing on upgrading its liquor products and innovating marketing strategies, particularly through the "dual-wheel drive" strategy centered on its white liquor brands [2]. - Following the divestment of its real estate business, the company aims for clearer focus on its core operations, with expectations for the liquor business to benefit from the demand for staple liquor [1][4]. Group 4: Future Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 7.66 billion, 7.89 billion, and 8.21 billion, reflecting a downward adjustment of 10% [4]. - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.15, 0.19, and 0.24 yuan, also down by 46%, 47%, and 44% respectively [4].
顺鑫农业(000860):需求平淡,盈利承压
HTSC· 2025-08-29 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 4.59 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 170 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.2% and 59.1% respectively [1][2]. - The pork supply is abundant, but consumer demand remains weak, leading to a downward trend in pork prices. The white liquor business is also under pressure due to external factors affecting demand [2][3]. - The company is actively promoting product upgrades and innovative marketing strategies. Following the divestment of its real estate business, the company's main operations are clearer, with potential benefits from the demand for staple liquor in the future [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the white liquor segment generated revenue of 3.61 billion, down 23.2% year-on-year, with high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor revenues of 530 million, 500 million, and 2.58 billion respectively [2]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 34.3%, with a significant increase in sales and management expenses [3]. - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 3.8%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 7.66 billion, 7.89 billion, and 8.21 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 16.1% in 2025 [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been reduced to 0.15, 0.19, and 0.24 yuan, reflecting a significant downward adjustment [4][12]. - The target price for the company is set at 18.24 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 96 times for 2026 [4][7].