Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the leisure snack industry, indicating a transition to the 3.0 phase characterized by "quality and efficiency cultivation" [2][28]. Core Insights - The leisure snack retail model is highly efficient and continues to expand, with an estimated 55,000 to 60,000 stores by the end of 2025, projecting a long-term potential of 80,000 to 100,000 stores [2][19]. - The competitive landscape of the leisure snack industry has become clearer, with leading brands entering a phase of quality and efficiency improvement, which is expected to enhance profitability in the future [2][28]. - The industry has evolved through three phases: 1.0 (rapid growth), 2.0 (market consolidation), and now 3.0 (operational optimization and supply chain efficiency) [27][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The leisure snack retail sector has seen significant growth, with the number of stores increasing from approximately 2,500 in 2021 to an estimated 25,000 by the end of 2023, and further growth to 35,000 to 40,000 by the end of 2024 [3][6]. - The market share of the leisure snack retail channel has risen from 0.23% in 2019 to an expected 3.21% by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [11][12]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a dual-strong competitive structure emerging in the 3.0 phase, with major players like Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng Group expected to have over 22,000 and 19,000 stores respectively by the end of 2025 [2][28]. - The industry is witnessing a trend of brands expanding their product categories, including the introduction of discount supermarket models and private label products to enhance competitiveness [31][42]. Supply Chain and Product Development - Leading companies are focusing on supply chain efficiency, with improvements in inventory turnover days and operating cycles, indicating better management of resources [39][42]. - The introduction of private label products is seen as a strategy to enhance profit margins and control over the supply chain, with notable examples including various beverage and snack products launched by Mingming Hen Mang [42][43].

Abstract 摘要 中金研究 2024年12月我们发布了《 休闲食品行业系列三：零食量贩渠道发展复盘及展望 》[1]报告，经历一年发展，行业进入3.0阶段，从"规模竞速"到"质效深 耕"。 点击小程序查看报告原文 零食量贩行业模型效率高且持续扩容，2025年底零食量贩门店超5.5万家。 我们预估2025年底5.5-6万家（零售额预估超2500亿元），中长期零食量贩店有 望达8-10万家。 零食量贩3.0时代格局已基本形成。 零食量贩1.0阶段（爆发增长期）期间呈现区域割据的特点；零食量贩2.0阶段（竞争整合期）2022-2024年市场整合加 速，头部龙头借助资金、品牌和规模等优势加速市场整合；零食量贩3.0阶段行业双强格局已基本形成，进入需门店运营优化和供应链提效的发展阶段。 2025年末鸣鸣很忙集团、万辰集团的门店数量分别超2.2/1.9万家（高德地图统计）。 2024年下半年零食量贩品牌均开始积极拓展品类，尝试运营省钱/折扣超市的新店型。 以现有品类为基础，拓展IP玩具卡牌类、以及短保类的烘焙或乳制 品，以及日化清洁、冻品等家庭刚需品类。品类扩充后对门店GMV有一定拉动但仍未达到较好的盈利模型，后续仍 ...