Report Summary Core View - The expectation of a September interest rate cut in the US is stable, and index futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [1] - On July 15, all four index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.12%, IH dropped 0.58%, IC dropped 0.12%, and IM dropped 0.44% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 44,249 lots, IH by 19,958 lots, IC by 34,305 lots, and IM by 77,808 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 3,863 lots, IH by 1,424 lots, IC by 3,901 lots, and IM by 18,183 lots [1][2] Data Tracking Index Futures Data | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Basis | Turnover (Billion) | Volume | Change | Open Interest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,019.06 | ↑0.03 | | 353.52 | | | | | | IF2507 | 4,009.6 | ↓0.12 | -9.46 | 47.2 | 39,238 | ↑10,856 | 45,718 | ↓4,132 | | IF2508 | 3,993.2 | ↓0.18 | -25.86 | 13.81 | 11,529 | ↑4,578 | 19,935 | ↑4,198 | | IF2509 | 3,980.6 | ↓0.24 | -38.46 | 74.76 | 62,583 | ↑24,994 | 152,828 | ↑2,640 | | IF2512 | 3,948.6 | ↓0.25 | -70.46 | 12.97 | 10,947 | ↑3,821 | 48,850 | ↑1,157 | | SSE 50 | 2,747.23 | ↓0.38 | | 79.81 | | | | | | IH2507 | 2,740.2 | ↓0.58 | -7.03 | 15.73 | 19,124 | ↑4,764 | 22,777 | ↓1,830 | | IH2508 | 2,735 | ↓0.66 | -12.23 | 3.14 | 3,820 | ↑1,118 | 5,522 | ↑1,353 | | IH2509 | 2,734.2 | ↓0.64 | -13.03 | 28.14 | 34,281 | ↑12,504 | 58,202 | ↑1,546 | | IH2512 | 2,735.2 | ↓0.66 | -12.03 | 3.34 | 4,069 | ↑1,572 | 10,978 | ↑355 | | CSI 500 | 6,018.76 | ↓0.03 | | 246.08 | | | | | | IC2507 | 6,008.2 | ↓0.12 | -10.56 | 47.05 | 39,182 | ↑11,059 | 47,615 | ↓5,099 | | IC2508 | 5,949 | ↓0.21 | -69.76 | 14.63 | 12,301 | ↑2,863 | 27,145 | ↑4,805 | | IC2509 | 5,893.4 | ↓0.26 | -125.36 | 45.59 | 38,675 | ↑16,208 | 99,289 | ↑4,885 | | IC2512 | 5,770.4 | ↓0.22 | -248.36 | 12.18 | 10,553 | ↑4,175 | 57,153 | ↓690 | | CSI 1000 | 6,442.83 | ↓0.30 | | 347.38 | | | | | | IM2507 | 6,422 | ↓0.44 | -20.83 | 62.98 | 49,078 | ↑11,709 | 54,685 | ↓4,311 | | IM2508 | 6,352.8 | ↓0.46 | -90.03 | 22.9 | 18,041 | ↑7,303 | 31,298 | ↑8,958 | | IM2509 | 6,277.4 | ↓0.55 | -165.43 | 151.01 | 120,268 | ↑49,084 | 181,672 | ↑13,659 | | IM2512 | 6,099 | ↓0.52 | -343.83 | 28.3 | 23,203 | ↑9,712 | 77,129 | ↑2,067 | [1] Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures | Contract | Long Position Change | Net Long Position Change | Short Position Change | Net Short Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2507 | -2,144 | | -3,380 | | | IF2508 | 3,343 | 4,266 | 3,708 | 2,495 | | IF2509 | 2,224 | | 1,362 | | | IF2512 | 843 | | 805 | | | IH2507 | -333 | 1,106 | -1,613 | | | IH2508 | Not announced | | Not announced | | | IH2509 | 1,282 | | 1,614 | 487 | | IH2512 | 157 | | 486 | | | IC2507 | -3,506 | | -3,980 | 1,971 | | IC2508 | 3,762 | 3,173 | 4,065 | | | IC2509 | 3,354 | | 2,862 | | | IC2512 | -437 | | -976 | | | IM2507 | -1,683 | | -2,516 | | | IM2508 | 5,802 | | 5,461 | | | IM2509 | 11,704 | 15,823 | 10,596 | 13,541 | | IM2512 | Not announced | | Not announced | | [5] Important Drivers - The 14th issue of Qiushi Journal published on July 16 will feature an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasizing that China's policy of utilizing foreign investment remains unchanged [6] - The US June unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, in line with expectations. After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also in line with expectations. The unadjusted core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 3.0%. After seasonal adjustment, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% [6] - After the release of the US CPI report, traders continued to bet that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September. The market pricing indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed remains around 60%. Traders still believe the probability of a rate cut this month is only 5% [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73%. The trading volume of A-shares reached 1.64 trillion yuan, up from 1.48 trillion yuan the previous day. More than 4,000 stocks declined. CPO concept stocks strengthened collectively, with New Fiber Optic Communication Technology Co., Ltd. hitting the 20% daily limit and reaching a new all-time high. AI intelligent agent concept stocks showed late-day activity, and some real estate stocks rebounded. However, the photovoltaic industry chain, pharmaceutical stocks, and power stocks declined [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]