| 序号 | 合村名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天价 | 英价 | ਕ ਵਿੱਚ 1 | 以平 | 48 | 成交軍 | 月時 | 持创量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 碳酸铝2511 M | 88160 | 4530 | 88120 | 88160 | 3.40% | 2 | 147 | 4530 | 2900 | 402034 | 895 | | 2 | & 甲ESSEI IN | 52810 | 497 | 52810 | 52860 | 2.74% | 59 | J | 497 | 1410 | 138650 | -73 | | 3 | 标相轴2601 M | ae48 | 606 | 9648 | 9650 | 2.57% | 15 | 872 | 377865 | 242 | 524404 | 43569 | | 4 | 工业定2511 M | 8805 | 775 | 8805 | 8810 | 2.09% | 268 | 1 | 775 ...

美东时间周三，高盛在研究报告中表示，预计美联储今年将降息三次，每次25个基点，2026年再降息两 次。这将使美联储终端利率从目前的4.25%-4.50%降至3%至3.25%之间。 同时从细分数据来看，美国7月汽油价格环比下跌2.2%。食品价格在连续两个月环比上涨0.3%后涨势停 歇，7月环比持平。 在这一背景下，高盛预计，美联储将在今年9月、10月和12月分别降息3次，每次25基点。 早在一周前，在美国公布疲弱的非农数据报告、尤其是大幅下修了前两个月的就业增长数据后，高盛就 表示，近期就业报告的修正是过去57年来，除经济衰退期外最显著的调整。这意味着过去一年每月的就 业增长预期可能会减少 4.5 万至 8 万个。 高盛当时称，在疲弱的就业市场背景下，9月降息已经是极大概率事件，讨论的重点应该是降息25基点 还是50基点。 而在本周二的CPI公布后，高盛认为，CPI数据表明近期与关税相关的价格压力将在很大程度上是暂时 的，这些措施尚未导致消费者价格大幅上涨。高盛认为，这份CPI 报告强化了9月份"保险性"降息的说 法，即更倾向于降息25基点，以保护经济免受下行风险。 高盛预计，未来几个月市场注意力将转向美国就业 ...

万腾平台据悉，8月12日，美国劳工部公布的最新数据显示，7月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，环比上涨0.2%。剔除 波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，环比涨幅为0.3%，创下近六个月来的最大环比涨幅。尽管核心CPI创半年 新高，但整体通胀压力仍相对温和，市场尚未看到急剧上升的迹象，这为美联储未来的货币政策提供了一定回旋空间。 市场对降息的高预期已经影响到美元、股市和固定收益市场的定价。美元可能承压走弱，而股市在降息预期下可能延续风险资产 上涨趋势，同时美债收益率曲线也可能因降息预期而进一步趋陡。这些市场反应将成为投资者衡量政策落地与市场情绪的关键信 号。 在数据公布后，市场迅速调整了对美联储9月货币政策的预期。根据芝加哥商品交易所"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储9月维持利 率不变的概率仅为6.6%，降息25个基点的概率高达93.4%。这意味着投资者几乎一致押注美联储将在下月采取降息行动。与此同 时，10月的政策预期也出现明显倾向，维持利率不变的概率仅为2.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为37.7%，累计降息50个基点的 概率高达59.9%，显示市场已经将货币宽松延续至未来两个月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced an 8-day consecutive rise, reaching 3674 points, raising questions about potential opportunities for stocks that have not yet increased in value [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent U.S. CPI data has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, which could provide further upward momentum for the A-share market [1] - The current market trend is characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with daily rotations among different sectors, preventing a uniform bullish sentiment [1] - As long as short sellers do not dominate the market, the overall market remains secure, indicating that many sectors and individual stocks still have opportunities for catch-up growth [1] Group 2: Short-term Strategy - Given the rapid increase in the index and the peak sentiment among numerous stocks, a consolidation phase is expected after breaking through 3674 points to digest floating capital [1] - The company suggests maintaining a bullish outlook but advises controlling the pace of investments in the short term to secure profits, with plans to resume aggressive strategies once the market stabilizes [1]

证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250813 过于乐观的降息预期——2025 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评 2025 年 08 月 13 日 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《预计 7 月贷款需求回落、社融增速 平稳增长》 2025-08-10 《美国 7 月 CPI 前瞻：商品价格抬升 或推动 CPI 环比走高》 2025-08-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 宏观点评 图1：美国 CPI 主要分项环比增速 | 拉动率 | 权重 | 环比增速 | 2025/07 | 2025/06 | 2025/05 | 2025/04 | 2025/03 | 2025/02 | 2025/01 | 2024/1 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States in July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which aligns with the previous value and is slightly below the expected rate of 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.2%, matching expectations and down from the previous month's increase of 0.3% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the upcoming US CPI data for July is a crucial economic indicator, especially in the context of rising inflation expectations due to tariff policies [1] - Despite recent tariff developments, including increased tariffs on August 7 and a proposed 100% tariff threat on chips, the overall consumer price increase in the US for Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - The S&P Global US PMI data, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI trends, suggests that inflation may rise in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future price acceleration [1] Group 2 - The forthcoming CPI data will be essential in confirming whether prices began to accelerate in July, which is critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Given the potential volatility in prices, the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, highlighting how tariff increases have contributed to inflationary pressures in recent months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs is evident in the June data, with notable increases in prices for furniture (1%), clothing (0.4%), and entertainment goods (0.8%) [3][8]. - It is estimated that tariffs have already been reflected in the CPI, with a potential impact of 14% if core goods prices remained at February levels, or 40% if they followed last year's declining trend [4][14]. - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. increased by approximately 8.3 percentage points from March to June, with the latest estimate suggesting it could rise to 17.3% [10][19]. Group 2: Remaining Tariff Effects - If the overall tariff rate reaches 17.3%, the remaining unreflected tariff impact on core goods prices could contribute an additional 0.5 to 0.54 percentage points to the overall CPI [19]. - Projections indicate that if the remaining tariff effects are realized gradually over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could be 3.2% and 3.3% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively [19][29]. Group 3: June CPI Data Analysis - The June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI increased to 2.9% [20][29]. - The breadth of CPI inflation has widened, with the proportion of items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rising from 40.8% to 44.1% [20][24]. - Core goods prices saw a significant increase, with the CPI for core goods rising from 0% to 0.2% month-on-month, driven by higher prices in imported goods [24][26]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76 [29]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 98.63, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.481% [29].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn from July 15 to 16, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a historical high of $123,100 to $116,300, marking a daily decline of over 5% [1] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw declines ranging from 4% to 8% [1] - The crash resulted in a surge of liquidations, with 135,800 individuals affected and a total liquidation amount of $493 million (approximately 3.54 billion RMB), with nearly 80% of losses coming from long positions [1] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's exchange supply has fallen to a historical low of 14.5%, while the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased to 2,135, suggesting sustained confidence among long-term holders [3] - The recent price correction is viewed as a standard adjustment following a market overheating, with the next key support level for Bitcoin identified at $114,000, a price point that previously triggered significant short covering [3] - Over the past three months, Bitcoin has seen an increase of over 40% due to institutional inflows, with a notable single-day surge of 6.8% on July 14 [3] Market Influences - The release of the U.S. June CPI data coincided with the market crash, leading investors to preemptively withdraw from risk assets. The CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - Concerns about potential inflation rebound have led to fears that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with analysts noting that cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [4] Regulatory Environment - Matrixport has warned of tightening U.S. regulatory policies, with the SEC potentially expanding its enforcement on "tokenized securities," which could lead to prolonged volatility in risk assets [5] - Despite the challenges, some institutions maintain confidence in Bitcoin's price trajectory, with Bernstein reiterating a year-end target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the current cycle is institutionally driven, contrasting with the retail-driven bubble of 2017 [5]

Core Insights - LME copper inventory has confirmed a bottom, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1] - Recent US CPI data has reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term [1] - Institutions believe that the copper price correction is not yet over, suggesting ongoing volatility in the market [1] Industry Analysis - The confirmation of LME copper inventory bottom may influence future trading strategies and market sentiment [1] - The impact of US CPI data on Federal Reserve policy could lead to shifts in investment strategies across various sectors, particularly those reliant on copper [1] - Ongoing monitoring of copper prices is essential as institutions anticipate further corrections, highlighting the need for investors to stay informed [1]