Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, currently reported at $4989.28 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.59% [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The international gold market opened at $5019.14 per ounce, reaching a high of $5030.62 and a low of $4954.42 during the trading session [1] - Last week, gold prices opened at $4987.98 per ounce, peaked at $5119.05 on Wednesday, and then fell to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday before rebounding to close at $5042.63, marking a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to a temporary recovery in prices [1] - The support from central bank purchases and geopolitical factors, along with President Trump's push for the Fed to lower rates to "the lowest in the world," contributed to the rebound in gold prices [1] - The market reacted to AI-related fears that caused a sell-off in tech stocks, triggering liquidity issues and leading traders to sell metals to cover stock losses, which resulted in a sharp drop in gold prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current outlook suggests that gold prices may experience short-term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains intact due to the recent U.S. CPI report, which has raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Fed [2] - The ongoing central bank purchases of gold are expected to support long-term bullish sentiment, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to create opportunities for bullish entries [2] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4990 and $4930, with resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced slight gains last week, maintaining an upward trend above the 5-week moving average, indicating a bullish outlook for the future [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4987.98 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $5119.05 on Wednesday, dipped to a low of $4878.77 on Thursday, and closed at $5042.63 on Friday, resulting in a weekly increase of $81.77 or 1.65% from the previous week's closing price of $4960.86 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions initially drove gold prices higher, but comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying the urgency of interest rate cuts and a White House official refuting employment concerns led to fluctuations in gold prices [3][5]. - The market's reaction to the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, alleviated inflation concerns and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices rebounded after touching a support level, remaining within a new bullish market space and above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish outlook [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates that gold prices maintained their upward trend despite reduced momentum and volatility, with expectations for new highs supported by the 5-week moving average [7][9]. - Daily charts show that while the rebound momentum has slowed, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4990 and $4930, and resistance levels at $5100 and $5150 [9].

来源：滚动播报 金价在亚洲早盘时段因可能的头寸调整而下跌。现货金下跌0.3%，报每盎司5,025.48美元。不过，周五 弱于预期的美国CPI数据可能会限制金价跌幅。苏克敦金融的研究团队在评论中表示，该数据已促使市 场预期美联储将采取更激进的降息周期。该团队补充说："市场目前预计美联储在2026年将进行两次以 上的降息，首次降息预计在6-7月期间。"美联储降息预期的升温通常会提升该不计息贵金属的吸引力。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.3% [1] - Year-over-year, the January CPI rose by 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5% and the prior figure of 2.7% [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% month-over-month, matching expectations and up from 0.2% previously [1] - On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI also rose by 2.5%, in line with expectations but slightly down from 2.6% [1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI data release, the market anticipates a 61 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by 2026, an increase from the prior expectation of 58 basis points [1] - Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investment at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, indicated that the CPI data did not show the feared strength, making the Fed's "normalization" rate cut path clearer [1] - The Fed's decision will heavily depend on the labor market's performance, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is highly sensitive to signs of weakness in the job market [1] - The expectation remains that the Fed will implement two rate cuts this year, with the next anticipated in June [1]

当地时间2月13日，受美国公布的1月CPI数据影响，黄金价格快速回升。截至当日收盘，伦敦现货黄金 和纽约商品交易所期货黄金价格均重返每盎司5000美元大关。 值得注意的是，黄金从每盎司5600美元附近的历史高位回调后，市场波动性急剧上升。本周国际金价再 次经历震荡行情，在突破每盎司5100美元后于周四跌超3%，随后在周五美国CPI数据公布后收复部分失 地。继1月末金价大跌后，2月份已经连续两周回升，累计上涨超过3%。 美联储降息预期升温，黄金成为最大赢家 华泰证券宏观研究团队预计，美联储在6月前将暂缓降息，待新任主席上任后的下半年或将降息1—2 次。 春节期间这些事件将决定金价走势 春节前黄金市场的剧烈波动让投资者陷入持仓纠结。春节期间，国内贵金属市场休市9天，而国际市场 正常交易。如何在当前大幅震荡的黄金市场中规避风险，增厚收益，是持金过节还是落袋为安，成为大 家关心的问题。 回顾历年春节期间国际黄金走势发现，黄金价格在春节呈现以"窄幅震荡、温和波动"为主的特征，极少 出现极端单边行情，且上涨概率略高于下跌概率。此外，由于春节国内市场休市，对全球黄金市场的流 动性也将有所影响，因此欧美市场行情也难以完全撬动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of US CPI data has led to an increased market expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, resulting in a decline in the US dollar index and enhancing the attractiveness of precious metal assets [1][1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - COMEX gold futures rose by 2.33%, reaching $5063.80 per ounce [1]. - COMEX silver futures increased by 2.10%, reaching $77.27 per ounce [1].

摘要今日周五(2月13日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于1097.88元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报1104.34元/ 克，跌幅1.83%，最高触及1124.88元/克，最低下探1082.57元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走 势。 当前黄金人民币延续高位震荡格局，日线RSI指标处于中性区域，短期动能偏弱但未脱离多头趋势。关 键支撑位在1100-1105元/克附近，若失守可能测试1080元/克防线；上方压力位分散于1160-1180元/克区 间，突破需放量配合。近期市场受美联储政策预期反复与美元走强压制，但全球央行购金潮及地缘风险 提供底部支撑。关注美国CPI数据发布后的方向选择。 值得注意的是，近三个月CPI数据持续低于华尔街预期。倘若1月数据表现疲软，美联储政策制定者将 更有底气，在规避通胀反弹风险的前提下，下调基准借款利率。 Fundstrat Global Advisors研究主管Tom Lee指出，通胀回归2.5%，将与疫情前2017至2019年的平均价格 水平相契合。这一数据不仅关乎美国经济走势，更对美联储货币政策调整、市场预期走向有着深远影 响，投资者正密切关注，等待通胀数据揭晓，以精准把握后续投 ...

有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报首席经济记者Nick Timiraos评论称，1月就业报告巩固了美联储暂停降息会持续更久的决心。他援引美联储主席鲍威 尔1月28日的讲话称，"经济再一次以其强劲表现让我们感到意外——这已经不是第一次了。" Timiraos认为，现在人们的注意力转移到了CPI的年初价格重 置。 美国1月非农就业报告显示劳动力市场超预期强劲，促使市场推迟对美联储降息时点的预期，交易员普遍预计的首次降息时间从此前的6月推迟至7月。 美东时间11日周三公布的报告显示，美国1月新增非农就业人数为13万，远超市场共识预期的6.5万，为一年多来最大月度增幅；1月失业率并未如市场预期 企稳，反而降至4.3%；2025年全年就业数据遭遇大幅下修，显示去年劳动力市场实际表现远弱于此前认知。 这份报告推动美国国债价格全线下跌，两年期美债的收益率势创2025年10月以来最大单日升幅。利率互换市场显示，交易员认为美联储3月降息的可能性不 到5%，预计到今年12月降息总幅度约为49个基点，低于周二预计的年内降幅59个基点。这份数据让下任美联储主席提名人沃什（Kevin Warsh）未来更难以 推动降息。 华尔街机构普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of inflation in the United States, indicating that the risks are temporarily manageable, particularly in light of the December 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [2] Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The December 2025 CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, which is a slight decrease from the previous month's 3.5% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable inflation trend [2] - The article highlights that inflationary pressures are easing, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy measures are having a positive effect [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The manageable inflation levels may lead to a more favorable environment for consumer spending and investment [2] - The article suggests that the current inflation trajectory could influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a pause in rate hikes [2] - Overall economic growth is projected to remain steady, supported by controlled inflation rates [2]

Sugar Market - The current spot price for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is between 5320 to 5380 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 10 to 20 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group's price is between 5190 to 5240 CNY/ton, up by 10 CNY/ton [2][6] - Market sentiment remains cautious due to rumors regarding imports and the pressure from hedging positions, leading to a volatile trading environment [2][6] Cotton Market - On Wednesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.12%, closing at 64.96 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract increased by 0.3% to 14810 CNY/ton, with a rise in open interest by 5213 contracts to 842,400 contracts [3][6] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 15615 CNY/ton, up by 5 CNY/ton from the previous day [3][6] - The USDA's January report reduced the expected cotton production for the 2025/26 season, providing some support for cotton prices [7] - Domestic market conditions show a narrowing trading range for Zheng cotton, with a slight upward shift in price levels [7] - Textile enterprises are showing a willingness to purchase cotton after price declines, although there are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among large, medium, and small enterprises [7]