| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 IF主力合约（2603） | 4712.2 | 环比 数据指标 -18.8↓ IF次主力合约（2606） | 最新 4671.2 | 环比 -24.6↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 3034.6 8537.4 | -23.4↓ IH次主力合约（2606） +19.2↑ IC次主力合约（2606） | 3031.0 8427.4 | -23.0↓ +2.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8443.4 | +41.6↑ IM次主力合约（2606） | 8260.4 | +18.6↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1677.6 | +4.4↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3825.2 | +27.6↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -94.0 | +29.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5502.8 | +32.0↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | | | | | | IF当季-当月 | 3731.2 -41. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 22182 亿元，较上日放量 2192 亿元。假期期 间外部利空因素较弱，随着假期之后流动性回流股市，叠加当前临近两会政策时间窗口，市场风 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 14, all the current contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF dropped 1.61%, IH dropped 1.84%, IC dropped 1.92%, and IM dropped 1.7% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 51,556 lots, IH by 28,092 lots, IC by 27,924 lots, and IM by 30,724 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 10,693 lots, IH by 9,279 lots, IC by 612 lots; while IM's total positions decreased by 4,355 lots [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Stock Index Futures Data** - **CSI 300**: The closing price was 4,660.4, down 1.25%, with a turnover of 452.88 billion [1] - **IF Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IF2602 down 1.61%, IF2603 down 1.92%, IF2606 down 2.05%, and IF2609 down 2.04%. The trading volume and positions of most contracts increased, except for the positions of IF2602 which decreased by 337 [1] - **SSE 50**: The closing price was 3,034.4, down 1.47%, with a turnover of 125.97 billion [1] - **IH Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IH2602 down 1.84%, IH2603 down 2.06%, IH2606 down 2.09%, and IH2609 down 2.18%. The trading volume of all contracts increased, while the positions of IH2602 decreased by 479 [1] - **CSI 500**: The closing price was 8,299.6, down 1.47%, with a turnover of 406.32 billion [1] - **IC Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IC2602 down 1.92%, IC2603 down 2.02%, IC2606 down 2.19%, and IC2609 down 2.24%. The trading volume of most contracts increased, while the positions of IC2602 decreased by 4,591 [1] - **CSI 1000**: The closing price was 8,204.8, down 1.32%, with a turnover of 438.92 billion [1] - **IM Contracts**: All contracts declined, with IM2602 down 1.70%, IM2603 down 1.75%, IM2606 down 1.91%, and IM2609 down 1.88%. The trading volume of all contracts increased, while the positions of IM2602 decreased by 6,643 [1] 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - **IF Contracts**: The long - order increase of IF2601 was 820, IF2602 was 5,634, IF2603 was 5,379, and IF2606 was 1,351. The short - order increase of IF2601 was 451, IF2602 was 946, IF2603 was 5,339, and IF2606 was 1,132 [5] - **IH Contracts**: The long - order increase of IH2601 was 45, IH2602 was 6,647, IH2603 was 1,500, and IH2606 was 1,157. The short - order increase of IH2601 was - 70, IH2602 was 4,992, IH2603 was 1,655, and IH2606 was 1,102 [5] - **IC Contracts**: The long - order increase of IC2601 was - 3,585, IC2602 was 1,451, IC2603 was 5,837, and IC2606 was 2,300. The short - order increase of IC2601 was - 3,616, IC2602 was - 1,876, IC2603 was 4,639, and IC2606 was 2,589 [5] - **IM Contracts**: The long - order increase of IM2601 was - 5,206, IM2602 was 1,708, IM2603 was 2,378. The short - order increase of IM2601 was - 4,703, IM2602 was - 2,297, IM2603 was 1,440. The data for IM2606 was not announced [5] 3.3趋势强度 - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4重要驱动 - **Credit and Monetary Data**: In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.1% at the end of the month. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [7] - **Housing Price Data**: The month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first, second, and third - tier cities narrowed comprehensively in January, with a narrowing of 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. The second - hand housing prices in Yangzhou and Zhanjiang increased by 0.4% and 0.3% month - on - month respectively. Year - on - year, the prices of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the decline further widened [7] - **Regulatory Policies**: The "Anti - monopoly Compliance Guidelines for Internet Platforms" was released, specifying 4 types of monopoly risks such as monopoly agreements, abuse of market dominance, concentration of undertakings, and abuse of administrative power to exclude and restrict competition, and listing risk examples such as "choose one of two" and "the lowest price across the network". The CSRC seriously investigated and dealt with the illegal financing and information disclosure violations of Tianfeng Securities for Dangdai Group. The Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to impose a maximum fine of 25 million yuan on Tianfeng Securities and Dangdai Group, and a total fine of 34.8 million yuan on 9 responsible personnel. The actual controller of Dangdai Group, the former chairman of Tianfeng Securities, and the former vice - president and chief financial officer were subject to a lifetime ban from the securities market [7] 3.5 Other Market Information - **US Tariff Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 10% ad valorem import tariff on goods imported into the US for 150 days starting from February 24, and later raised the tariff to 15%. Importers and retailers may face a long - term struggle to recover up to 170 billion US dollars in tariffs paid to the US government [8][9] - **Stock Market Performance in China**: On the last trading day of the Year of the Snake, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.26% to 4,082.07 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.57%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.72% to 26,567.12 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.55% [9][10]

报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：①假期间海外市场表现来看，美股表现相对偏强，尤以此前下跌的科技指数反 弹更为明显。日韩等市场当中韩国股市持续创高。整体上，外盘表现平稳，略有上涨。中国香港股市在假 期间短暂交易，先涨后跌，略有回落。核心拖累还是在于以恒生科技为首的国内平台型企业的下跌。②从 后期展望来看，首先，考虑到假期间全球地缘事件及金融市场整体平稳，未出现明显超预期黑天鹅事件冲 击，对风险偏好有正向积极影响，有利于节后股市的开门红。③其次，从驱动来看，外部方面，假期间美 国关税事件出现新的变化。包括美国大法官对此前特朗普关税的违宪认定，以及特朗普重新宣布施加先 10%、后 15%关税的消息。虽然关税本身理论上对行情会有扰动，但自 2025 年以来，市场对于关税问题已 "身经百战"，尤其是形成 TACO 交易预期，因此关税问题不会对整体股市构成大扰动。④国内方面，主要 变化是假期出行、电影票房和春晚呈现的中国机器人产业快速崛起。尤其是后者，我们认为短期将掀起新 一轮 A 股机器人板块的交易热情，提振风险偏好，成为带动市场支撑的重要力量，对指数有望带来科技风 格的强势。⑤后期，临近两会召开，预计两会政策预期在 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 政策利好预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 行 合 一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严 谨 管 理 开 拓 进 取 扫码关 ...

| 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2603） | | 4716.8 IH主力合约（2603） 3083.0 | +4.2↑ IF次主力合约（2602） -9.4↓ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4719.4 3082.8 | +3.2↑ -9.0↓ | | IC主力合约（2603） | | 8448.8 | +112.2↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8448.2 | +103.2↑ | | IM主力合约（2603） | | 8338.0 | +93.6↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8345.4 | +83.0↑ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 期货盘面 | 1636.6 | +12.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3728.8 | +102.6↑ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | | -102.8 | -20.6↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5365.4 | +114.6↑ | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | 3626.0 | +82.0↑ ...

股指期货全景日报 2026/2/11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） | 4714.8 3091.4 | -5.8↓ IF次主力合约（2602） +2.6↑ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4716.2 3091.6 | -7.8↓ +3.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 8336.4 | +36.0↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8342.4 | +28.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 8241.0 | +1.2↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8260.2 | -1.4↓ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1624.6 | -10.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3626.2 | +45.4↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | -82.2 | -27.8↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5250.8 | +34.6↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 3544 ...

- The report discusses the performance of the four major stock index futures contracts (IF, IC, IM, IH) over the past week, highlighting that IH had the highest increase of 0.90%, while IC experienced the largest decline of -0.08%[3][11] - The average trading volume of the contracts showed mixed performance, with IC increasing the most by 2.72%, and IH decreasing the most by -16.58%[3][11] - The average open interest of all four contracts declined, with IF showing the largest decrease of -11.61%, and IM the smallest decrease of -0.69%[3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.13%, -4.76%, -8.13%, and -0.44%, respectively, as of last Friday's close[3][11] - The inter-month spread rates for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were at the 3.10%, 0.60%, 11.80%, and 31.30% percentiles of their historical distributions since 2019, with IM and IH at normal levels and IF and IC at relatively low levels[4][12] - Dividend forecasts for the next year indicate that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index will impact index points by 81.23, 90.90, 72.77, and 68.78, respectively[4][12] - The report provides a formula for calculating forward and reverse arbitrage returns in index futures trading, considering factors such as transaction costs, margin ratios, and risk-free rates[46] - The dividend estimation method involves using historical dividend patterns and EPS data to predict future dividend points, with specific formulas provided for calculating the impact on index points[48][52]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡整理 | 股市风险偏好谨慎乐观 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市成交额 22702 亿元，较上日放量 1067 亿元。随着白 银止跌反弹，市场情绪有所回暖，股指运行逻辑回归自身基本面。政策面利好预期以及增量资金持续 净流入股市的趋势保持不变，构成股指中长期上行的核心逻辑。不过短期内宏观经济指标有所走弱， "弱现实"压力上升，加上临近长假资金面趋向谨慎，预计股指上行动能有所不足。总的来说，短期 内股市风险谨慎乐观，股指以区间震荡整理为主。 （仅供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly consolidate in a range. Although there are short - term disturbances such as the sharp fluctuations of silver and the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the long - term upward trend of the stock index is supported by policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2163.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp fluctuations of silver disturbed the market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a continuous contraction of the trading volume of the stock market. In the short term, the macro - economic indicators have weakened, and the pressure of "weak reality" has increased. Coupled with the weakening of risk preference caused by silver and the clear signal of risk control from the regulatory authorities, the stock market sentiment is cautious. However, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors, and the repair of the stock market risk preference will eventually return to its own fundamentals. The favorable expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index [5]