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国投智能(300188):25Q3单季业绩表现不佳,订单与新产品新业务有望未来反弹
Orient Securities· 2025-12-04 12:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.05 CNY based on a PS valuation method [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 795 million CNY (YoY -11.4%) and a net loss of 366 million CNY (YoY -51.2%) [2]. - The company experienced a significant drop in Q3 2025 revenue, amounting to 238 million CNY (YoY -31.9%), and a net loss of 157 million CNY (YoY -37.8%) [2]. - Despite the current downturn, the company expects a rebound in revenue due to a 23% increase in new orders in the first nine months of 2025, particularly in long-cycle business areas such as public safety big data and digital governance [9]. - The gross margin decreased to 35% in the first nine months of 2025, down 5.73 percentage points YoY, attributed to weak market demand and increased buyer bargaining power [9]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven products and cost control measures to improve gross margins in the future [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -318 million CNY, 28 million CNY, and 157 million CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous forecasts [3][10]. - Revenue is expected to decline from 1,984 million CNY in 2023 to 1,689 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 2,461 million CNY by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39% in 2026 and 38.6% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [5]. Market Context - The company operates in the computer industry, with a current market capitalization of approximately 12.8 billion CNY [6]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 19.94 CNY (high) to 11.2 CNY (low) [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI applications and digital transformation initiatives, particularly in collaboration with the State Investment Group [9].