格隆汇12月5日｜东方证券研报指出，国投智能25Q3单季业绩表现不佳，订单与新产品新业务有望未来 反弹。预计相关项目的实施和确认，有望在25Q4和下一财年转化为公司营收。在"AllinAI"战略指引 下，公司"天擎"公共安全大模型的技术底座持续夯实，大模型的业务已进入规模化落地阶段，已在公共 安全、市场监管、纪检监察、企业数字化等领域实现规模化应用，未来也将推动AI应用服务在反诈等 领域的发展。而另一方面，公司全资子公司国投云网定位集团数字化基石，正在协助国投集团编制"十 五五"数智化规划，将从明年开始承担国投集团数智化建设核心工作，并打造可复制的方案在集团内推 广。由于公司近两年处于业务调整期、盈利能力不稳定，认为应采取PS估值，参照可比公司，认为公 司的合理估值水平为2026年的6.2倍市销率，对应目标价为15.05元，维持"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.05 CNY based on a PS valuation method [3][10][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with a total revenue of 795 million CNY (YoY -11.4%) and a net loss of 366 million CNY (YoY -51.2%) [2]. - The company experienced a significant drop in Q3 2025 revenue, amounting to 238 million CNY (YoY -31.9%), and a net loss of 157 million CNY (YoY -37.8%) [2]. - Despite the current downturn, the company expects a rebound in revenue due to a 23% increase in new orders in the first nine months of 2025, particularly in long-cycle business areas such as public safety big data and digital governance [9]. - The gross margin decreased to 35% in the first nine months of 2025, down 5.73 percentage points YoY, attributed to weak market demand and increased buyer bargaining power [9]. - The company is focusing on AI-driven products and cost control measures to improve gross margins in the future [9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are -318 million CNY, 28 million CNY, and 157 million CNY respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous forecasts [3][10]. - Revenue is expected to decline from 1,984 million CNY in 2023 to 1,689 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 2,461 million CNY by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39% in 2026 and 38.6% in 2027, indicating a gradual recovery [5]. Market Context - The company operates in the computer industry, with a current market capitalization of approximately 12.8 billion CNY [6]. - The stock has shown a 52-week price range of 19.94 CNY (high) to 11.2 CNY (low) [6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on AI applications and digital transformation initiatives, particularly in collaboration with the State Investment Group [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guotou Intelligent (300188.SZ), has successfully implemented its self-developed "Tianqing" public safety model and electronic data forensics products in various public safety and network governance scenarios across the country, focusing on online crime warning and data traceability [2]. Company Summary - Guotou Intelligent has developed a public safety model named "Tianqing" which is utilized for online crime prevention and data forensics [2]. - The company's products have been applied in multiple regions nationwide, indicating a broad adoption in the public safety and network governance sectors [2].

Group 1 - The company has confirmed that its "Tianqing" public safety large model is compatible with Ascend NPU [2] - The company has also released a corresponding public safety large model integrated machine [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - Jibite announced Q3 revenue of 1.968 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 129.19%; net profit reached 569 million yuan, up 307.7% [1] - For the first three quarters, Jibite's revenue was 4.486 billion yuan, growing 59.17% year-on-year; net profit was 1.214 billion yuan, an increase of 84.66% [1] - Jibite plans to distribute a cash dividend of 60 yuan per 10 shares for Q3 2025, with an expected total cash dividend of 904 million yuan, accounting for 74.47% of the net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Overview - The latest market capitalization of Jibite is 33.005 billion yuan, with a closing price of 458.14 yuan per share, down 31.42% from the year's high [2] - The cybersecurity industry is experiencing stable overall demand, with marginal improvements in the government market and growth in sectors like finance and electricity due to domestic substitution needs [4] - As of October 28, 19 cybersecurity concept stocks received net financing purchases, with significant inflows into companies like Unisoc, China Software, Inspur Information, and Deep Technology [4] Group 3: Industry Developments - The revised Cybersecurity Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, enhancing legal responsibilities and coordination with related laws, while supporting AI research and development [2] - 18 cybersecurity concept stocks reported Q3 performance, with Unisoc showing the largest net profit of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25% [4] - Deep Technology has launched new products based on domestic switching chips, focusing on high-density and high-performance solutions [4]

Financial Performance - The company signed new orders totaling a 23% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Revenue for the period was 795 million CNY, a decrease of 11.39% year-on-year [2] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 366 million CNY, an increase in loss of 51.16% year-on-year [2] - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were 5.049 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.35% from the previous year [2] - Shareholders' equity was 3.094 billion CNY, down 11.80% from the previous year [2] Asset Quality and Cash Flow - The asset-liability ratio was 35.47%, indicating strong solvency and a secure financial structure [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was a net outflow of 353 million CNY, a reduction of 49 million CNY year-on-year [3] - Cash reserves at the end of the reporting period were 914 million CNY, providing solid support for sustainable development [3] Strategic Initiatives - The "All in AI" strategy has led to the large-scale application of the "Tianqing" public safety model in various sectors [4] - The "Jianzhen" product series has established a technological barrier and commercial path, covering 15 provincial platforms and over 100 municipal platforms, with a user base exceeding 160,000 [4] - The company completed over 40 key digital transformation projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] Business Challenges - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 35%, a decline of 5.73% year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and rising project costs [5][6] - New orders and revenue showed a divergence, with over 50% of new orders coming from long-cycle projects, affecting revenue recognition [6] - Delays in project acceptance due to client adjustments and cautious budget approvals from government and large enterprise clients continue to challenge the industry [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the first three quarters of 2025, but new order growth and advancements in AI products provide a foundation for future recovery [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 795 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.39%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 366 million yuan, with losses widening by 51.16% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 238 million yuan, down 31.88% year-on-year, with a net loss of 157 million yuan, an increase in losses by 37.77% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.00%, a decline of 5.73 percentage points, primarily due to reduced client budgets and intensified market competition [1]. Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with total sales, management, and R&D expenses decreasing by approximately 11.91% year-on-year [1]. - Cash received from sales and services for the first three quarters was 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.25%, indicating improved revenue quality [1]. Order Growth and AI Product Development - New orders signed in the first three quarters increased by 23% year-on-year, supporting future performance recovery [2]. - The company has strengthened its competitiveness in AI products, with the Tianqing public safety model being the first in the domestic public safety sector to pass both algorithm and generative AI service registrations [2]. Emerging Business Expansion - Revenue from emerging businesses such as digital government and enterprise digitalization showed positive growth year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully secured projects in low-altitude economy and rural revitalization sectors, enhancing its market share [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been reduced by 13%, 15%, and 15% to 1.715 billion yuan, 1.868 billion yuan, and 2.088 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 17.96 yuan, reflecting the company's accelerated entry into the commercialization phase of AI products [4].

Core Insights - Digital transformation has become a survival necessity, with global losses from fraud exceeding $1 trillion in 2024, averaging $1.9 million lost every minute [2] - The digital economy now accounts for over 40% of China's GDP, with a data factor market growth rate exceeding 20% annually [2] Company Strategy - Guotou Intelligent is driving its "All in AI" strategy to become a global leader in data intelligence and security services, integrating AI deeply into its product offerings [3][4] - The company operates under a "2+2" business model, focusing on two foundational businesses: electronic data forensics and public safety big data, alongside two innovative businesses: new cybersecurity and digital governance [4] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guotou Intelligent reported revenues of 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, with new orders growing by 42% [4] - AI-related product revenue reached approximately 167 million yuan, accounting for about 30% of total revenue [4] Market Position - Guotou Intelligent is recognized as a national leader in electronic data forensics, holding the largest market share for over a decade [4][6] - The company has constructed over 200 public safety big data platforms, covering more than one-third of China's provinces, solidifying its position in the industry [4] Innovation and Technology - The company has developed its own data operation systems and public safety models, enhancing its technological capabilities and creating a robust technical moat [6][11] - Guotou Intelligent is actively involved in the construction of national-level anti-fraud data platforms and has pioneered in AI safety, particularly in deep forgery detection [6][14] Digital Governance and Enterprise Solutions - The company supports digital governance initiatives, enabling integrated online services and promoting rural revitalization through digital solutions [8] - Guotou Intelligent is extending its public safety big data capabilities to various sectors, including mining, energy, and transportation, to enhance operational efficiency [8] Challenges and Solutions - The company addresses challenges in data management and AI implementation by standardizing its product base, allowing for efficient data alignment and training [14][15] - Guotou Intelligent has introduced tools for deep forgery detection and fraud prevention, enhancing security measures in the digital landscape [15]

Core Insights - Digital transformation has become a survival necessity, with global losses from fraud expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, averaging $1.9 million lost every minute [1] - Guotou Intelligent aims to become a global leader in data intelligence and security services, driven by its "All in AI" strategy [1][2] - The company has established a robust technical foundation, utilizing AI and big data to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency [5][6] Business Structure - Guotou Intelligent operates under a "2+2" business model, focusing on two core businesses: electronic data forensics and public safety big data, alongside two innovative sectors: new cybersecurity and digital governance [2] - The company has maintained the largest market share in electronic data forensics for over a decade and has built over 200 public safety big data platforms across more than one-third of China's provinces [2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guotou Intelligent reported revenue of 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, with new orders growing by 42% [1] - AI-related product revenue accounted for approximately 30% of total revenue, amounting to 167 million yuan [1] Technological Foundation - The company has developed a modular and standardized technical foundation, including MYOS forensics operating system and Tianqing public safety model, allowing for efficient product customization [5] - Guotou Intelligent's approach to data governance and algorithm training enables rapid adaptation to new demands without starting from scratch [5][6] Market Position and Strategy - Guotou Intelligent is positioned as a national leader in cybersecurity and social governance, with a focus on data-driven governance for government, efficiency revolution for enterprises, and safety needs for the public [4] - The company is actively expanding into cryptocurrency security, leveraging its state-owned enterprise background to establish a professional image in financial technology security [3][4] Challenges and Solutions - The industry faces challenges such as data inconsistency and difficulties in AI implementation, which Guotou Intelligent addresses by standardizing its product base and streamlining data processing [7][8] - The company has introduced solutions like the "Huiyan" deep forgery detection workstation and the "Meiya" WeChat mini-program to combat rising security threats [8]

Core Viewpoint - Digital transformation has become a survival issue, with global losses from fraud exceeding $1 trillion in 2024, and the digital economy accounting for over 40% of China's GDP [1][2] Group 1: Company Strategy and Business Model - Guotou Intelligent is driving its "All in AI" strategy to become a global leader in data intelligence and security services, integrating AI deeply into its product offerings [2][3] - The company operates under a "2+2" business model, focusing on two foundational businesses: electronic data forensics and public safety big data, alongside two innovative businesses: new cybersecurity and digital governance [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guotou Intelligent achieved revenue of 558 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.63%, with new orders growing by 42% [3] - AI-related product revenue reached approximately 167 million yuan, accounting for about 30% of total revenue [3] Group 3: Market Position and Achievements - Guotou Intelligent has maintained the largest market share in electronic data forensics for over a decade and has built over 200 public safety big data platforms across more than one-third of China's provinces [3][4] - The company launched China's first public safety vertical large model "Tianqing" in June 2023, becoming one of the first state-owned enterprises to receive national cybersecurity certification [3][4] Group 4: Innovation and Technology - The company has developed its own data operation systems and AI models, creating a robust technological foundation that enhances its competitive edge [4][10] - Guotou Intelligent employs a modular "AI Lego" approach to product development, allowing for efficient customization and scalability [10][12] Group 5: Industry Trends and Challenges - The digital economy is projected to reach 52.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with a core industry value added accounting for about 10% of GDP [7] - The company is addressing challenges in data governance and AI implementation, focusing on unifying data formats and improving operational efficiency [13][14]