Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - Japan's recent election resulted in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) winning over two-thirds of the seats, boosting the Nikkei 225 index to a historical high, indicating strong legislative support for fiscal stimulus measures[2] - The upcoming January CPI data in the U.S. is expected to show a rebound due to seasonal effects, with a potential increase in the month-on-month rate[2] - The U.S. job market shows signs of loosening, with initial jobless claims remaining low but rising layoffs and declining job vacancies indicating potential risks[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Recommendations - The U.S. software sector has underperformed since the beginning of 2026, but signs suggest that the sell-off may have peaked, with increased trading volume and volatility indicating a potential stabilization[3] - Caution is advised in selecting stocks within the software sector, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and rapid transformation progress[3] - The market is pricing in two additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, reflecting expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy[24] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include increased tariffs leading to higher goods inflation, insufficient cooling of service inflation, and geopolitical tensions driving up energy prices, which could limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy[4][25] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with officials emphasizing the need for clear evidence of inflation decline before making further policy adjustments[21][23]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2026-02-11 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：降息或先行，缩表存 约束》 - 2026.02.03 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：日本大选获胜提振风险资产情绪 ⚫ 核心观点： 上周末，日本举行第 51 届国会众议院选举，首相高市早苗领导 的自民党（LDP）在众议院取得压倒性胜利后，日经 225 指数大幅上 涨至历史新高。自民党获得超过三分之二席次，是该党派成立以来最 强势的表现，为高市政府提供了充足的立法空间，以推进扩大财政刺 激、暂停食品消费税等政策承诺。 美国方面，受残余季节性影响，即企业通常倾向于在年初调整价 格，但季调因子无法完全剔除这一季节性，年初 CPI 环比读数可能偏 高。因此，本周即将公布的 1 月美国 CPI 环比增速预计将有所反弹。 年初就业数据同样受季节性影响，往往保持稳健，初请失业金人 数通常处于低位。近期挑战者裁员人 ...