Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations in both supply and demand, with recent data indicating a rebound in iron ore futures prices due to macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [7] Supply - Global iron ore shipments increased to 33.884 million tons, up by 0.549 million tons week-on-week, while the port arrival volume decreased to 20.291 million tons, down by 0.490 million tons [5] - The monthly import volume for September reached 116.326 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.101 million tons [5] Demand - As of October 23, the average daily pig iron production was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons week-on-week, while the blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, up by 0.44% [4] - The profitability of steel mills dropped to 47.62%, down by 7.79% from the previous period, indicating pressure on steel mill operations and weakening replenishment demand [4] Inventory - Port inventories are increasing, with a total of 144.236 million tons at 45 ports, up by 1.4532 million tons week-on-week [6] - The average daily dispatch volume from ports decreased to 3.1265 million tons, down by 30,700 tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventories rose to 90.792 million tons, an increase of 964,700 tons [6] Market Outlook - The iron ore futures market showed a rebound, with the main contract closing at 792.5 yuan/ton, up by 6.0 yuan (+0.76%) [2] - The recent progress in US-China negotiations has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to expectations of improved demand and a potential bottoming out of iron ore prices [7]

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore remain stable, with PB powder at 772.0 CNY/ton and lump ore at 874.0 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market - As of July 31, the main iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 789.0 CNY/ton, down 2.38%, while the distant month 2601 contract closed at 766.0 CNY/ton, down 2.65% [2] Basis - The optimal delivery product is lump ore, with costs for lump ore, PB powder, mixed powder, and JMB powder at 793.4 CNY/ton, 818.4 CNY/ton, 823.4 CNY/ton, and 831.6 CNY/ton respectively. The basis for the 09 contract is 14.4 CNY/ton for lump ore, 39.4 CNY/ton for PB powder, 44.4 CNY/ton for mixed powder, and 52.6 CNY/ton for JMB powder [3] Demand - Daily iron output is 2.4071 million tons, down by 15,200 tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 90.24%, down by 0.57%; and the profit margin for steel mills is 65.37%, up by 1.73% [4] Supply - Global shipments increased by 918,000 tons week-on-week to 32.09 million tons, while the port arrival volume decreased by 130,700 tons to 22.405 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 105.948 million tons, up by 782,000 tons [5] Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with average daily dispatch volume down month-on-month. The inventory at 45 ports is 136.579 million tons, down by 1.3248 million tons; average daily dispatch volume is 3.0271 million tons, down by 124,400 tons; and steel mills' imported ore inventory is 90.1209 million tons, up by 1.2687 million tons [6] Market Sentiment - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a volatile downward trend. Despite an increase in global shipments, the volumes from Australia and Brazil slightly declined, and port arrivals decreased. Steel mills maintain high profit margins, with iron output slightly declining but remaining around 2.4 million tons per day. The demand from the end market shows strong performance despite seasonal weakness. Inventory levels at ports are decreasing, while steel mills' inventories are rising. Looking ahead, iron output is expected to remain high in August, averaging around 2.35 million tons per day, supported by improving steel mill profits. New supply-side policies are anticipated, and there are expectations of production restrictions in Hebei ahead of the military parade [7]