整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 铁矿石： 供应持续高增 建议空配为主 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 需求方面：国内铁矿石需求主要取决于钢厂利润水平以及钢材库存去化程度，由于今年气温 偏高，工地开工或提前，市场对需求仍有一定乐观预期。短期来看，终端需求出现超预期增长概 率偏低，后期关注钢材库存去化节点以及复工强度。从季节性规律来看，铁水进入回升周期，后 期更多关注回升速度以及高度，从当前钢厂利润水平以及需求预期来看，回升速度保持相对平缓。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端节后仍存在补库需求，但补库强度和持续性仍取决于终端需求复苏情况； 从当前疏港水平来看，港口库存仍将处于累积状态，叠加现货价格走弱，预期短期港口库存累积 压力仍保持高压态势。同时，注意贸易受限库存的潜在抛售风险。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：短期宏观预期偏弱，铁矿石供需矛盾持续积累，供给同比保持高增，铁矿石需求仍受 产业链利润限制，建议空配为主。 价格：预期区间在 93~100 美元/吨（6 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways with a wide - range oscillation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to support near the previous low, with a low - buying mindset [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand. Downstream steel mills are announcing shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and pre - holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses are further expanding, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Coupled with a generally warm macro - environment and frequent fiscal and monetary policy announcements, there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expansion of losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains off - season characteristics. Although steel mill profits have slightly recovered, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side remains limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points from last week to 40.69%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly recovered to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently, 4 steel mills have released maintenance plans, and shutdown and maintenance plans for steel mills during the Spring Festival are being announced one after another [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the steel market followed the positive macro - sentiment, with an increase in hot metal production, a recovery in furnace material prices, and a general price increase in the black market. However, as the sentiment weakened, the near - term inventory started to accumulate, and pressure increased. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater pressure on hot - rolled coils in the near term than on rebar. The overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [7][16]. Summary by Directory 01 Fundamental Changes - After the holiday, following positive macro - sentiment, hot metal rebounded, furnace material prices recovered, the black market as a whole made up for lost ground, steel prices rose with costs, and the basis quickly turned negative, with intraday premiums reaching the warehouse - receipt registration spread. There is an expected increase in rebar warehouse - receipt volume. As sentiment weakened, near - term inventory accumulation started, increasing pressure [7]. - Rebar factory inventories showed a cumulative trend. After - holiday demand fell short of expectations, the apparent demand for wire rods declined rapidly, with a 17% month - on - month decrease. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand were weak. In January, the procurement forecast of construction enterprises surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 18% month - on - month, mainly due to fewer newly launched projects, seasonal shutdowns, and slower construction. Currently, infrastructure projects drive most of the demand, accounting for 90% of the Mysteel sample. Hot - rolled coils mainly accumulated in social inventories, and the inventory in Hangzhou remained high. Cold - rolled production increased by 2.8% month - on - month. The winter storage sentiment was dull this year, with an interest rate of 6 - 8 per thousand, and prices below 3000 yuan were considered attractive [10]. - Last week, the price of steel billets increased by 50 yuan, and the production profit of steel billets recovered. However, the price increase of finished products was weak, and the overall price difference with steel billets shrank. The price differences between hot - and cold - rolled products and between round bars and rebar remained stable [13]. 02 Outlook and Valuation - Assuming the supply of rebar and wire rods decreases by 12% and that of plates increases by 4.2% in the first 20 weeks, and the demand decreases by 7% and increases by 2% respectively, the inventory accumulation of rebar and wire rods is limited, while the inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large. For rebar and wire rods, assuming the demand decreases by 2%, 7%, and 13% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are - 1.8%, - 6.8%, and - 12.7% to maintain seasonal inventory. For plates, assuming the demand increases by 0.4%, 3.8%, and 4.9% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are 0.8%, 4.2%, and 5.4% to maintain seasonal inventory. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater near - term pressure on hot - rolled coils than on rebar [16]. - Based on the previous assumptions for the five major steel products, the post - Spring Festival inventory peak is 15% higher than last year. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the demand ranges from +2.6% to - 4.3%, and the supply ranges from 2.9% to - 3.8%. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the year - on - year change in hot metal production ranges from 2.4% to - 1.8%. According to the neutral assumption, the hot metal production before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the current level, and the required reduction in production is limited. According to the current maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to recover in the future, but the demand needs to maintain a +2.4% level, which poses demand pressure [19]. - In terms of valuation, the on - disk blast furnace profit is at a relatively low level. The price difference between iron and scrap is 80, and the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap is not yet obvious. The on - disk pricing gives a flat - electricity profit of - 10, a valley - electricity profit of 126, and a blast furnace profit of 78, which is moderately high with limited downward space. The price difference of Turkish hot - rolled coils is 22 US dollars, and the export market is still open. The near - term export volume has declined for three consecutive weeks, which requires continuous attention. Overseas steel prices have been flat after the holiday. After the macro - sentiment fades and hot metal production recovers, the inventory starts to accumulate, and there is near - term real - market pressure. Currently, the production reduction plan is slow, and steel mill profits are under pressure. Steel mills still have a pre - holiday restocking demand for iron ore, and the overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [22].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with both supply and demand contracting, leading to a continued weak market outlook for January 2026 [1][2][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The steel industry PMI for December 2025 is reported at 46.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating ongoing contraction in industry operations [1]. - The production index for the steel industry is at 43.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a continued reduction in production activities [5]. - Key steel enterprises reported an average daily crude steel output of 186.9 million tons in early December, a 3% decrease from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand side remains weak, with the new orders index at 45.4%, down 3.5 percentage points, indicating five consecutive months of contraction [3]. - Real estate development investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, contributing to a slowdown in domestic steel demand [3]. - Export pressures are increasing, with the new export orders index at 41.1%, down 6.1 percentage points, marking two months of significant decline [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a slight recovery, with the Shanghai rebar price index rising from 3194 yuan/ton on December 1 to 3215 yuan/ton by December 25 [9]. - Raw material prices have generally declined, with the purchasing price index dropping to 30.6%, indicating a significant reduction in cost pressures for steel production [8]. - The overall market for raw materials is weak, with iron ore prices declining due to reduced procurement needs from steel mills [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a weak demand outlook in January 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12][14]. - The anticipated impact of the Spring Festival and continued environmental production restrictions will further suppress production and demand [13][14]. - Despite some potential support from infrastructure projects, the overall demand for steel is likely to remain subdued due to multiple constraining factors [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Pricing - Prices are strengthening while the basis is weakening, with Tangshan steel billet increasing by 40 to 3040 yuan, Shanghai rebar up by 40 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot rolled coil rising by 40 to 3300 yuan/ton, with May contract basis at -13 yuan/ton and -17 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore remains relatively strong. Recent declines in coal prices have weakened support for coking coal. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered from low levels, but are expected to remain low during the off-season. Current profit rankings from high to low are cold rolled > steel billet > hot rolled > rebar [1] Supply - From January to November, iron element output increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with an expected annual growth of 4%. Hot metal production continues to decline, down by 24,000 tons to 2.32 million tons. Seasonal production cuts due to high steel inventory are affecting steel mills, with slight increases in the production of five major materials. Total production decreased by 26,700 tons to 8.29 million tons, with rebar production down by 17,000 tons to 1.89 million tons, below the required 2.17 million tons. Hot rolled production decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.14 million tons, close to the required 3.15 million tons. Rebar maintains a significant supply-demand gap, allowing for continued destocking, while hot rolled supply and demand are balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [1] Demand - Analyzing demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices for steel exports. November apparent demand increased to 8.77 million tons from 8.66 million tons in October, but is weaker year-on-year compared to last year's 8.81 million tons. December apparent demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a decrease of 240,000 tons to 8.64 million tons. Both rebar and hot rolled apparent demand have declined, with rebar down by 110,000 tons to 2.17 million tons and hot rolled down by 54,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [2] Inventory - This week, inventory reduction is acceptable, with total inventory of five major materials down by 350,000 tons to 13.66 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 280,000 tons to 5.04 million tons, while hot rolled inventory slightly decreased by 5,000 tons to 4 million tons. The reduction in hot rolled production is not significant, and supply-demand remains balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [3] Market Outlook - Influenced by potential support for Vanke, expectations for the real estate sector are improving, leading to a low-level price increase in the black series. The recent dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, is expected to boost market sentiment. Previous declines in steel prices were primarily driven by falling raw material coking coal prices. The steel market fundamentals show a trend of production cuts and inventory reduction, but overall demand strength is average, with year-on-year demand declines and a downward cycle in hot metal production suppressing raw material prices. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile, with rebar and hot rolled prices to be monitored within the ranges of 3000-3200 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively. Considering the divergence in inventory reduction between rebar and hot rolled, the January rebar-hot rolled spread arbitrage can continue to be held, while the long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage should exit [4]

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have significantly declined, and the basis has strengthened during the period. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend, while steel mill profits have converged. The decline in steel prices is mainly affected by the fall in raw material prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production cut and inventory reduction, with weak downward momentum. However, the total demand is average, and the decline in hot - metal production suppresses raw material prices. Currently, steel prices are falling, and attention should be paid to the support near the lower limit of the range. The 5 - month contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils should pay attention to the support levels of 3100 and 3200 respectively. Considering the differentiation in inventory reduction between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the spread convergence arbitrage can be continued. Considering the decline in hot - metal production, which suppresses iron ore prices, the long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage of the January contract can be continued [2]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot - metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated and rebounded, and the profitability of steel mills improved. From the data of five major steel products, steel output decreased, inventory continued to decline, and apparent demand seasonally decreased. In terms of inventory, iron ore port inventory increased, and the port clearance volume decreased, while the equity inventory of steel mills increased. Looking forward, this week, hot - metal output decreased, steel prices showed signs of bottom - rebounding, market expectations began to improve. With the recovery of downstream demand, there is no basis for a large decline in hot - metal output, which supports iron ore demand. Iron ore has support from downstream restocking on one hand and a need for basis repair on the other hand. Considering the high price level, iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to sell short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 750 - 820. The 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [6]. Coke Industry - Yesterday, coke futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the first round of coke price cuts started to be implemented at 0:00 on December 1st, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. The port price has fallen in advance. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market has expanded, the auction prices of various coking coal varieties have continued to decline. Coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal, coking profits have been repaired to some extent, and the operating rate has increased. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, steel prices have fluctuated and rebounded, and steel mill profits have been repaired to some extent, with a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants have increased inventory, while ports and steel mills have reduced inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level, and the coke supply - demand situation has weakened. Coke futures have fallen in advance, and the spot price decline refers to the downward space of coking coal and is still in the bottom - exploring stage. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend. On the spot side, the auction prices of Shanxi coking coal continued to decline, Mongolian coal quotes fell, and the recent auction failure rate has fluctuated between 30 - 50%. Traders are cautious and the thermal coal market has continued to decline. The coal spot market has once again shifted to a loose situation. On the supply side, coal mine shipments have worsened, daily production has slightly decreased, coal mines have accumulated inventory again due to unsold products, and coal mine production may continue to decline near the end of the year. In terms of imported coal, port inventory has continued to increase, Mongolian coal quotes have followed the futures price down, and the recent customs clearance has rebounded to a high level. On the demand side, steel mills have increased maintenance due to losses, hot - metal output has declined, the coking profit has recovered, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The market's restocking demand has weakened. In terms of inventory, coking enterprises and steel mills have reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and ports have increased inventory. The overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. In terms of policy, ensuring the long - term contract coal supply for power plants remains the main tone, and the over - capacity pattern continues. In terms of strategy, coking coal spot prices have continued to fall, the futures price has dropped significantly, and the main contract has shifted to the Coking Coal 2605 contract. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side with an oscillating trend, with a reference range of 1000 - 1150. The long - coke and short - coking - coal arbitrage is recommended [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils has shown different changes. For example, the basis of rebar in the East China region is 163, and the basis of hot - rolled coils in the East China region is - 10. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows a positive spread trend [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices have decreased by 40 to 2950, and plate billet prices remain unchanged at 3730. The costs of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar have both decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coils in the East China, North China, and South China regions, as well as the profits of rebar in different regions, have shown different changes, with some profits narrowing [2]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The output of five major steel products has decreased by 26.8 to 829.0, a decline of 3.1%. The rebar output has decreased by 16.8 to 189.3, a decline of 8.1%, and the hot - rolled coil output has decreased by 4.7 to 314.3, a decline of 1.5% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 35.2 to 1365.6, a decline of 2.5%. Rebar inventory has decreased from 531.5 to 503.8, and hot - rolled coil inventory has slightly decreased from 400.9 to 400.4 [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume has decreased by 1.3 to 10.2, a decline of 15.1%. The apparent demand of five major steel products has decreased by 23.8 to 864.2, a decline of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar has decreased by 11.0 to 217.0, a decline of 4.8%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils has decreased by 5.4 to 314.9, a decline of 1.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines have all decreased. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore varieties has increased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.5 to 23.5, a decline of 6.0%, the 9 - 1 spread remains unchanged at - 41.5, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 1.5 to 18.0, an increase of 9.1% [6]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 218.8 to 2480.5, a decline of 8.1%, and the global shipment volume (weekly) has increased by 45.4 to 3368.6, an increase of 1.4%. The national monthly import volume has decreased by 500.6 to 11130.9, a decline of 4.3% [6]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports (weekly) has decreased by 8.5 to 318.5, a decline of 2.6%. The national monthly pig - iron output has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%, and the national monthly crude - steel output has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [6]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports (compared with Monday, weekly) has increased by 63.4 to 15300.81, an increase of 0.4%. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) has increased by 42.3 to 8984.7, an increase of 0.5%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) have decreased by 1.0 to 19.0, a decline of 5.0% [6]. Coke Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The prices of the 01 and 05 coke contracts have declined. The coking profit (weekly) has decreased from - 43 to - 54 [10]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants has increased by 0.8 to 64.5, an increase of 1.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.3 to 46.6, an increase of 0.6% [10]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills has decreased by 2.4 to 232.3, a decline of 1.0% [10]. Inventory - The total coke inventory has decreased slightly from 884.7 to 883.0. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants has increased from 71.8 to 76.4, an increase of 6.5%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased from 187.4 to 181.3, a decline of 3.3% [10]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap has changed from - 1.3 to 2.2, an increase of 3.6 [10]. Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) have declined. The prices of the 01 and 05 coking coal contracts have declined. The coking coal profit (weekly) of sample coal mines has decreased by 16, a decline of 2.9% [10]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines has decreased by 2.7 to 853.4, a decline of 0.3%, and the clean coal output has decreased by 0.6 to 438.2, a decline of 0.1% [10]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is affected by the production situation of coke. As the coking profit recovers, the operating rate of coking plants has slightly increased, but the overall demand has weakened due to the decline in hot - metal output [10]. Inventory - The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines has increased from 107.6 to 127.6, an increase of 18.7%. The coking - coal inventory of all - sample coking plants has slightly decreased from 1010.3 to 1009.2, the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel mills has decreased from 801.3 to 798.3, a decline of 0.4%, and the port inventory has increased [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating in a range. The iron ore market has a warming macro - atmosphere, and ore prices continue to fluctuate. The coking coal and coke market shows a "supply rising, demand weak" weak - balance state, and prices continue to oscillate. The power coal market is in a weak state with low downstream demand and high inventory [1][3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3133 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3325 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the terminal's willingness to accept the price - increased spot was low. The national building materials transaction volume was 9.82 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The output of finished steel increased slightly, the inventory decline slowed down, and the plate inventory remained high. The current consumption of finished steel was stable, but its sustainability was questionable. The consumption expectation of plates was better. The short - term fundamental contradiction was not prominent, and the macro - policy atmosphere continued to boost market expectations [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices rose slightly, with the 2601 contract closing at 800.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose slightly, the trading atmosphere was dull, and supply - demand was loose. The cumulative transaction volume at major national ports was 96.4 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The molten iron output decreased, the steel mill profitability rate was continuously compressed, and there was an expectation of a seasonal decline in molten iron. The rigid demand support weakened, and the restocking demand was not significantly released. Port inventory increased significantly, and steel mill imported ore inventory declined, with structural contradictions being more prominent than overall inventory contradictions [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the black commodity sector was generally strong and oscillating, and the coking coal and coke futures prices rose slightly. The current market inquiry activity for imports was low, the port quotations were weak, and the trading volume declined [5] - **Logic and Views**: In the off - season of downstream steel consumption, the coking coal and coke market will present a weak - balance state of "rising supply and weak demand" in the short term. For coking coal, mine production is gradually recovering, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, with supply expected to be loose. Downstream coking enterprises have limited procurement enthusiasm. For coke, production enthusiasm has improved, but downstream steel mills are in continuous losses, and their procurement attitude is cautious [5][6] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, downstream mainly carried out long - term contract transportation, and non - power coal was purchased as needed. Port inventory accumulated rapidly, quotations continued to loosen, downstream demand was poor, and actual transactions were few. Import coal tender prices continued to decline, and some traders took profits and sold [6] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been in a weak state due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [6] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Weak Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Weak Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways [7] 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for steel has declined, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure has been well - relieved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has significantly narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory still suppresses plate prices [1]. - The spot supply - demand of iron ore is tight, and ore prices are oscillating upwards. This week, iron ore shipments have slightly declined, port inventories have continued to rise, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month. Steel mill profits have continued to decline and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet been transmitted to ore prices [2]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is becoming more relaxed, and prices are oscillating. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the sentiment in the coke market. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been significantly pressured [3][4]. - The procurement of thermal coal for essential needs is maintained, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coils closed at 3304 yuan/ton. The spot trading of steel was average yesterday, weaker than the day before [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to production cuts and profit changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The cumulative turnover of iron ore at major national ports was 1.033 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.95%. The cumulative turnover of forward - looking spot was 1.542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.55% [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments slightly declined, port inventories continued to rise, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, and steel mill profits declined and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet affected ore prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the coke market sentiment. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been pressured. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal has slightly increased, and supply - demand contradictions are gradually accumulating. The cost support for coke has weakened, and the market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to coking profits and cost changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating strongly. The shipments of large stations and power plants are stable, and some coal mines have smooth sales. The supply is gradually tightening, supporting coal prices. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, and downstream procurement demand is cold. The inventory at northern ports has rapidly accumulated, and the pressure on traders to sell has increased. The import coal bidding price has decreased, and the market expectation for January is not good [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, there has been more wait - and - see sentiment, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways [7]