黑色产业链日报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

【现货】 价格走强，基差走弱。唐山钢坯+40至3040元。上海螺纹+40至3130元/吨，5月合约基差-13元/吨；热卷 +40至3300元每吨，5月合约基差-17元/吨。 本周去库尚可，五大材库存-35万吨至1366万吨；其中螺纹-28万吨至504万吨；热卷-0.5万吨至400万 吨；热卷减产不明显，供需基本平衡，高库存去库偏缓。 【观点】 【成本和利润】 受万科可能被托底消息影响，地产行业预期修复，黑色系价格低位上涨。昨晚美联储降息并且扩表，整 体偏鸽派，预计提振市场情绪。前期钢材回落更多受原料焦煤下跌影响。钢材基本面呈现减产去库走 势。本身下跌驱动不强。但总需求强度一般，需求同比下降，叠加铁水下降周期对原料价格有抑制。钢 材维持震荡走势，螺纹和热卷5月分别关注3000-3200元和3200-3350元区间走势。考虑卷螺去库分化，1 月卷螺差收敛套利可继续持有。多螺空矿套利离场。 成本端，双焦回落较多，铁矿相对坚挺。近期煤炭价格持续下跌，焦煤价格支撑减弱。钢厂利润低位有 所修复，考虑淡季预计利润维持低位运行。目前利润从高到低依次是冷卷>钢坯>热轧>螺纹。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司 ...

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月9日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | 163 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3180 | 3200 | -20 | ಲಿ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 193 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3123 | 3157 | -34 | 157 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3164 | 3192 | -28 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3117 | 3137 | -20 | 163 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3300 | -20 | -10 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3240 | -20 | -70 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3310 | 3330 | -20 | 8 | | | 热卷05合约 | 32 ...

供需与逻辑：供应端，成材产量小幅提升；库存端，成材库存下降节奏略有放缓，板材库存仍处高位状态。需求 端，当前成材消费表现平稳，但持续性存疑，后续板材工业属性支撑下，消费预期优于成材。短期基本面矛盾尚 不突出，宏观政策偏多氛围持续提振市场预期，投机情绪有所升温，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变 化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-03 宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3133元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3325元/吨。现货方面，今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日转弱明显，盘面持稳，无期现承接，终端对涨价后现货接受意愿较弱，部分地区有对昨日的补涨。 今日全国建材成交9.82万吨。 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：宏观氛围回暖，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘800.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、 成交氛围略显平淡 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-27 市场情绪回落，钢价区间震荡 钢材：市场情绪回落，钢价区间震荡 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3099元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3304元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 环比前日有所走弱。 供需与逻辑：在经过几周的连续去库下，成材库存压力得到显著缓解，降库整体符合季节性特征。其中建材供需 基本面环比改善，供需双弱下库存压力得到较好缓解，卷螺价差大幅收窄，考虑到即将步入建材需求淡季，关注 后续市场情绪及库存变化情况。板材供需双强，高供应带来的高库存仍对板材价格形成压制，考虑到后期建材需 求转弱可能会形成拖累，板材或需要通过适度减产来化解高库存压力。关注钢材减产和利润变化， 策略 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：现货供需偏紧，矿价震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡上行。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报盘 积极性一般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交103.3万吨，环比上涨5.95%；远期现 货：远期现货累计成交15 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - **Demand**: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - **Summary**: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3, the cumulative global iron ore shipments turned positive year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in Chinese imports [1]. - Among the Big Four mines, FMG and Vale had strong shipments, while Rio Tinto's shipments this year may be at the lower end of the guidance target. However, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged, so the iron ore supply will still be strong in Q4 [1]. - With a strong iron ore supply and negative feedback from finished products on the demand side, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and port inventories are increasing. The subsequent trend this year will be sideways with limited upside potential [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Shipments - As of Q3 2025, global iron ore shipments reached 1.20 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.39%. The increase in Q3 shipments (422 million tons) was mainly due to a significant increase in Chinese imports (326 million tons) [2]. - Structurally, as of Q3, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil were 1.00 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.25%, while those from non-Australia and Brazil regions were 200 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51% [4]. - As of September, China's cumulative iron ore imports were 919 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.05%. In the first eight months, cumulative imports were negative year-on-year, but imports increased in the second half of the year due to higher steel mill profits and strong demand [4]. - In the first three quarters, China imported 560 million tons of iron ore from Australia, a year-on-year increase of 1.69%, accounting for 61% of the total imports, and 196 million tons from Brazil, accounting for 21% [7]. 2. Big Four Mines 2.1 Summary of Supply in the First Three Quarters - As of mid-October 2025, the cumulative shipments of the Big Four mines were 877 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%. FMG had the largest increase, Vale's shipments increased slightly year-on-year, while BHP and Rio Tinto's shipments decreased [8]. Rio Tinto - Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target. The shipments from its Pilbara mining area increased significantly in Q3, but its shipments in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year due to the impact of a hurricane in Q1 [11]. - The grades of PB fines and lumps decreased. In Q3, the shipments of PB fines and lumps increased significantly, while those of SP fines and lumps decreased significantly [13]. - The progress of the Simandou project (designed capacity of 60 million tons/year) exceeded expectations. It is expected to load the first batch of iron ore in October and ship in November, earlier than expected by one month. The capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2026 [14]. FMG - FMG's production and sales increased year-on-year, and the guidance target remained unchanged. In Q3, its production was 50.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and shipments were 49.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [16]. - The guidance target for shipments in the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged at 195 - 205 million tons, and the C1 cost target remained unchanged at $17.5 - $18.5 per wet ton [16]. BHP - BHP's Q3 shipments decreased, and the guidance target remained unchanged. Its Q3 production in Western Australia was 70.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, mainly affected by the reconstruction of the Car Dumper 3 project at Port Hedland [19]. - The guidance target for the 2026 fiscal year remained unchanged, about 2 million tons higher than that of the 2025 fiscal year. The average iron ore selling price in Q3 2025 was $84.04 per ton, a 5% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [21]. Vale - Vale had strong production and sales in Q3. Its Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, mainly due to the production increase in the S11D in the northern system, Minas Centrais in the southeastern system, and Vargem Grande in the southern system [23]. - Vale's Q3 sales were 86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. It adjusted its product strategy, reducing the sales of high-grade IOCJ fines by 52% year-on-year and increasing the sales of medium-grade fines such as Brazilian Blend and Carajas fines [23]. 2.2 Outlook for Future Supply - Overall, the guidance targets of the Big Four mines remain unchanged. Rio Tinto's shipments may be at the lower end of the target, while Vale's production is moving towards the upper end of the target, and FMG has strong production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the mine shipments will still be strong in Q4, and there will be some supply pressure on iron ore [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Domestic Supply - As of September, China's cumulative production of iron ore raw ore was 761 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%. The cumulative production of iron concentrate from 433 domestic mines was 207 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.13%. China's demand for iron elements is highly dependent on imports [26]. 3.2 Demand - As of the end of September, the cumulative crude steel production was 746 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.89%, and the cumulative steel production was 1.104 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.68%. The cumulative iron ore production of 247 sample steel enterprises was 648 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.45% [27]. - As steel mills have a certain profit margin, the iron ore production remains high, supporting the demand for iron ore. However, the weak demand for finished products is expected to reduce the demand for iron ore in the future [27]. 3.3 Inventory - Due to the contradiction between the strong supply and weak demand of iron ore, the port iron ore inventory has been continuously increasing, with certain inventory pressure. The steel mill inventory is currently maintained at around 90 million tons, and the overall inventory is at a low level [31]. - At the port end, due to the high inventory pressure last year, the year-on-year import of iron ore decreased in the early part of this year, and the port inventory continued to decline. However, with the recovery of steel mill profits and the increase in foreign ore shipments, the port has started to gradually accumulate inventory, and the current inventory is 150 million tons, with certain inventory pressure [33]. 4. Future Outlook - In the context of weak demand for finished products, the decline of iron ore in the first half of the year was smaller than that of coking coal and coke. After June, the prices of coking coal and coke continued to rise, while the increase of iron ore was less than that of coking coal and coke [34]. - Looking forward, this year's crude steel reduction is expected to be mainly through the independent production cuts of steel mills. The policy space for the demand side of finished products may be limited in the future. The supply side of iron ore remains strong, while the demand continues to weaken. Therefore, it is expected that iron ore will remain sideways in the future, but the upside potential is limited [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has poor sentiment, and steel prices continue to decline. The iron ore market has weakening demand expectations, and prices are oscillating downward. The coking coal and coke market has average sentiment, and prices are oscillating downward. The动力煤 market has prices rising, with short - term upward momentum [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3265 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel trading was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.27 tons. The trading volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the North and South increased slightly [1]. - Supply and demand logic: The cost of rebar still provides support, and there is a possibility of more favorable policies. The profit of hot - rolled coil is better than that of rebar, so the output is relatively high. As steel mills have profits, the willingness to cut production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts by steel mills increases, and there are occasional environmental protection restrictions in the North [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 146.1 tons, a 12.99% increase from the previous period; the forward - looking spot trading volume was 72.2 tons, a 22.57% decrease [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The arrival volume of iron ore this week increased significantly by 58.6%. The overall iron ore valuation is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening and generally loose, and the ore price is under downward pressure. However, supported by downstream restocking demand, there is no clear trend in the short term. With steel mills' loss - driven production cuts, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and the price faces correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The black commodity sector oscillated weakly, and the closing prices of coking coal and coke futures both declined slightly. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise to a high level, and the trading atmosphere was average, with downstream players mainly in a wait - and - see mode [5]. - Logic and view: For coking coal, due to safety inspections, the supply in some producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall output is low, with the supply shortage pressure not significantly alleviated. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, but the expectation of a new round of coke price increases has risen, and the inventory - building willingness of some enterprises has increased. For coke, affected by the rising coal price, coke enterprises are still operating at a loss, and some have maintenance plans, so the supply has contracted to some extent. On the demand side, the price of finished steel has declined recently, and the profit of steel mills has shrunk significantly, but the market's expectation of rising raw material prices has increased, and the procurement plan has increased compared with before, providing some support for the coke price [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating [6]. - Coke: Oscillating [6]. 动力煤 Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, the coal price is still strong. Affected by safety inspections, the supply is tight. Downstream procurement is active, and the inventory of coal mines is decreasing. Miners believe that due to safety inspections and heating demand, the supply - demand mismatch will continue, and the price is difficult to decline in the short term. At ports, affected by the rising upstream prices, the quoted prices are firm, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand and is resistant to high - priced coal. Although railway transportation has increased and port inventory has accumulated, the accumulation rate is low. With the continuous price increase of upstream coal mines, the arrival cost has risen, so there is a shortage of low - priced coal resources, and the price will continue to rise in the short term. In the import market, the price is also strong, and the price difference between domestic and imported coal is still large, so imported coal still has an advantage [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by the situation in the producing areas, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern, but with the approaching of the winter heating season, attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. Strategy - No strategy provided [7].

Report Overview - Report Title: [Black Metal Weekly Report] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 - Research Institution: Guomao Futures Black Metal Research Center Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The emotional trading of steel has come to an end, and the focus has returned to the industrial supply side. The third round of price increase for coking coal and coke has been delayed, and the macro - level positive factors have been realized. There is no new driver for iron ore to break through the price range [3][7][41][5]. Summary by Category 1. Steel - **Supply**: Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, the weekly decline in hot - metal production accelerated, with a decrease of 3.5 to 236 million tons in the current week. Although the total production remains at a relatively high level in the same period of history, the overall production level is likely to be reduced in the future. The compression of steel mill production profit further intensifies, and a downward adjustment of production is a likely event [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory continues to decline, and the weekly apparent demand continues to improve, which is a safeguard to prevent the price from collapsing further. The overall demand this year shows characteristics of seasonal rigid demand remaining, insufficient speculative demand, and stable external demand [8]. - **Inventory**: The total steel inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the inventory pressure of some varieties is obvious. The total inventory of five major steel products is at a slightly high - neutral level, and the destocking slope during the golden September peak season is not ideal [8]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has decreased synchronously, with a more obvious decline in rebar. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 84, a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) is 22, a weekly decrease of 18 [8]. - **Profit**: The production profit of long - process steel mills is meager, and most electric - arc furnaces are in a loss state. However, due to the seasonal peak season, the terminal rigid demand and shipment situation are acceptable, and the market is in a weak balance [8]. - **Valuation**: The discount of the futures price on the disk has been repaired, and the relative valuation of the futures price has increased. In the industrial dimension, the production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [8]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The emotional trading in the market due to important time points may have ended, and the focus is gradually returning to industrial contradictions [8]. - **Investment View**: It is recommended to wait and see. In the future, the steel production is likely to decline gradually. At the initial stage of production reduction, it may suppress the furnace materials, and in the second half, it may drive the sector to rise jointly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, focus on whether the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar of the 01 contract is below 150 for a long - position layout. For futures - spot trading, roll and take profit on reverse spreads [8]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: The demand for steel is about to face seasonal weakening pressure. The apparent demand of five major steel products is 865.32 (+8.37) this week, and the production is 892.73 (+17.32). The steel inventory is still high, and the destocking slope is flat. The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills is 236.36 (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%) [42]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: The domestic coal mine supply is continuously restricted. Affected by production stoppages in some areas of Shanxi and Wuhai, the coking coal production has decreased again this week. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has returned to more than 1,000 vehicles, but the supply of Mongolian No. 5 coal is still tight. The quotation of seaborne coal is stable with a slight upward trend [42]. - **Coke Supply**: The coke supply has increased slightly. This week, the daily average coke production is 110.8 (+0.1), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9). The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, but the cost of raw coal is still rising, and the expansion of coking profit is limited [42]. - **Inventory**: The mine - end inventory continues to decline. Although the downstream procurement demand is still being released, steel mills have limited profit and low acceptance of high - priced raw materials [42]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the third - round price increase of coke is implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1,700, and the warehouse - receipt cost of port - trading is 1,715. The warehouse - receipt costs of Shanxi coal and Mongolian coal are between 1,350 - 1,400, but the actual warehouse - receipt cost should be lower due to warehouse - receipt processing issues [42]. - **Profit**: The profit - making rate of steel mills is 45.02% (-2.60%), and the coking profit is - 32 (+9) [42]. - **Summary**: The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been realized, and the black - metal sector has risen and then fallen. Considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, the decline in steel - mill profit - making rate, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke may ease. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support and consider going long in the medium - to - long term. For arbitrage, industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [42]. 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The previous shipping data showed a week - on - week decline of 32.9 million tons per day to 451 million tons per day, mainly due to seasonal factors. The total arrival volume in China decreased by 28.4 million tons per day week - on - week. There is no significant unexpected fluctuation in the supply side [91]. - **Demand**: The steel - mill hot - metal production has dropped significantly to 236.36 million tons (-3.54), and the profit - making rate of steel mills has also declined. Although the steel apparent demand has continued to rise in the short term, it will decline under the influence of seasonal factors in the future [91]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 47 ports has increased by 163.44 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly under the situation of stable supply and weakening demand [91]. - **Profit**: The steel - mill profit continues to decline. Although steel mills will not actively shut down production on a large scale, the hot - metal production will decline in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions or other policy - related reasons [91]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is at a relatively high - neutral level [91]. - **Summary**: The influence of macro - level sentiment has weakened this week. The supply of iron ore is in a reasonable fluctuation range. Under the influence of environmental protection restrictions and possible production cuts in Shanxi, the hot - metal production will remain around 235 in the short term, and the port inventory will continue to rise [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, try short - selling. For arbitrage, wait and see for the time being [91].