1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply is slightly falling, downstream profits are rising, molten iron is expected to increase, downstream demand is decent, short - term supply - demand may tighten slightly, and iron ore may fluctuate strongly [3] - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3] - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts is stable, the basis rate of the 05 contract is about 1.4%, the basis is narrowing, and the basis rate is decreasing [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipping volume has declined from its peak. The shipping volumes of Australia and Brazil are fluctuating at high levels and are lower year - on - year. The shipping volume from non - mainstream regions has decreased, and the total arrival volume has decreased. On March 1, 2026, Reuters' 7 - day moving average shipping volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,868 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of 2.7% and a year - on - year change of - 0.8%; Australia's 7 - day moving average shipping volume was 2,739 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of - 1.2% and a year - on - year change of 1.7%; Brazil's 7 - day moving average shipping volume was 1,094 thousand tons, with a week - on - week change of 3.9% and a year - on - year change of - 14.2% [3][18][24] Demand - The profit of finished steel products has increased slightly, the price difference between scrap iron and molten iron has increased slightly. The daily average molten iron output of 247 samples has increased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week to 2.286 million tons. There are generally few maintenance operations recently, and the molten iron output may increase slightly in the near future. The weekly output of the five major steel products has declined, and the total inventory continues to rise. In terms of different varieties, the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil has increased [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 1.45 million tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trading ore is 66%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills has decreased by 16.18 million tons, the mill inventory has decreased by 5.86 million tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has decreased by 10.33 million tons. The available days of imported ore have decreased by 7 days to 23 days [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts is stable. The basis rate of the 05 contract is about 1.4%, the basis is narrowing, and the basis rate is decreasing. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties have certain fluctuations, and the basis of different contracts also shows corresponding changes [3][168] Market Structure - The premium of Brazilian powder has increased; the premium of mainstream medium - low grade ore has increased; the price difference between domestic and foreign ore has decreased [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply and consumption of iron ore from March 2025 to December 2026 are presented in the balance sheet. The total supply shows certain fluctuations, and the total consumption also changes. There are periods of surplus and shortage. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of total supply and total consumption also show different trends. According to the changes in inventory and molten iron, the downstream demand has been adjusted upwards [188]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the steel market prices remained stable overall. On the supply side, although the output of rebar increased slightly week - on - week, it was still at the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, with limited supply pressure. On the demand side, with the resumption of work after the holiday, the apparent consumption increased significantly, but the absolute level was still low. The inventory was accumulating, but the growth rate slowed down, and the year - on - year increase was only 3%, so the overall inventory pressure was still within the controllable range. During the Two Sessions this week, the window period of macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported the prices of finished products. Although the post - holiday demand had some resilience, it was difficult to have a remarkable performance. There was still room for the resumption of production of blast furnaces and electric furnaces in the later stage. It was expected that the demand recovery speed would be slower than the supply recovery speed, and inventory pressure would still exist. With limited fundamental support, there was still pressure for a high - level correction after the futures market rally [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The steel market prices were stable this week. Rebar output increased week - on - week but was at a five - year low in the same period. Demand recovered after the holiday but remained at a low absolute level. Inventory was growing but at a slower pace, with a 3% year - on - year increase. During the Two Sessions, macro - positive factors and geopolitical risks supported prices. Demand was resilient but not outstanding, and there was room for production resumption. Demand recovery was expected to be slower than supply, and inventory pressure would persist. The futures market might face a high - level correction [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - The average daily hot metal output of steel mills was 227.59 million tons, a decrease of 5.69 million tons (-2.44%) from the previous week. Rebar mill inventory was 237.93 million tons, an increase of 5.09 million tons (2.19%). Rebar social inventory was 637.75 million tons, an increase of 69.99 million tons (12.33%). Hot - rolled coil mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.7 million tons (-4.96%). Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (6.78%) [3]. Futures Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 05 - 10 spread, hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 spread, futures market coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [4][5][10]. Spot Market Review - The report includes graphs such as the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [14][15]. Fundamental Data - The report includes graphs such as the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [17][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is mixed across different black building materials sectors. Steel prices are oscillating, iron ore prices face downward pressure despite a small increase, coking coal and coke prices are rising, and thermal coal prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated upward yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The national steel trading volume was 52,000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases and limited upside and downside. Plate production and sales have improved, but high intermediate inventory suppresses price performance [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect oscillation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were basically stable. The total trading volume of iron ore at major national ports was 858,000 tons, a 22.37% increase from the previous day, and the total trading volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 729,000 tons, a 6.42% increase [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, market sentiment is boosted. Supply remains high, and the daily average pig - iron output has increased slightly. High supply and inventory continue to suppress prices, and there is short - term downward pressure [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures rose significantly yesterday. For coking coal, pit - mouth prices fluctuated, and imported coal prices were firm. For coke, steel mills' profitability is average, and some northern blast furnaces will be restricted [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the market rebounded from oversold conditions, with expectations of tightened supply during the Two Sessions and cost - side support restored. For coke, the expectation of reduced production by coking enterprises has increased, and the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation has been alleviated [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: At the production sites, supply increased with the resumption of work, and some pit - mouth prices rose while others fell. At ports, traders were more willing to sell, but actual transactions were limited. Imported coal prices were strong, providing some support [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Post - festival demand has recovered, and affected by the supply issues in the import market, domestic coal prices have continued to rise slightly. In the short term, prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of steel products is bullish. Last week, the futures market fluctuated and consolidated. Hot metal production increased slightly, the total output of five major steel products decreased slightly week-on-week, inventories accumulated, and apparent demand declined, which was in line with seasonal trends. The divergence between hot metal and steel mill production data was mainly due to the slow recovery of the operating rate of electric arc furnace steel mills affected by poor profitability. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils reduced production and accumulated inventories. The profits of long-process steel mills recovered, while the off-peak electricity profits of short-process steel mills declined slightly, and the scrap-iron price difference widened. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market is focusing on the Two Sessions in March, and current market rumors mainly concern the supply side. The prices of raw materials in the futures market fluctuated downward, with a significant decline in iron ore prices, and the market is paying attention to the first round of coke price cuts. In terms of strategies, more attention can be paid to positions related to steel mill profits [3]. - The rebar spread is neutral. The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar is -33 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening week-on-week [3]. - Steel mill profits are bullish. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a slight increase week-on-week but still significantly lower than the same period last year [3][12]. - Scrap steel is neutral. According to calculations, the current on-peak electricity production of East China electric arc furnace steel mills results in a loss of 150 yuan/ton, and the off-peak electricity production results in a loss of 57 yuan/ton [3]. - Finished steel inventories are neutral. The five major steel products are seasonally accumulating inventories [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 2.3328 million tons, a slight increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, higher than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises nationwide was 80.22%, a slight increase week-on-week, and the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 7.35%, a significant decline week-on-week [12]. - This week, the total output of the five major steel products was 7.9677 million tons, a decrease of 79,800 tons from last week. Among them, the rebar output was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons from last week; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.0961 million tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from last week; the output of cold-rolled and medium-thick plates increased slightly, and both were significantly higher than the historical average [21]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of the five major steel products this week was 5.6465 million tons, a significant decline week-on-week. The weekly consumption of rebar was 1.4764 million tons, a slight increase week-on-week, and the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 2.913 million tons, a significant increase week-on-week [41]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling factories was 530,000 tons, a slight accumulation week-on-week, close to the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 2.3389 million tons, a significant accumulation week-on-week, reaching the highest level in history [70]. 3.2 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased slightly, lower than the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts increased slightly week-on-week, slightly higher than the same period last year [97]. 3.3 Balance Sheet The report provides a monthly balance sheet for crude steel from July 2025 to June 2026, including data on initial and final inventories, production, imports, exports, consumption, and surplus. It also shows year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year changes in production and consumption [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend short allocation for iron ore [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term macro expectations are weak, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply remains high year - on - year, and iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits. It is recommended to mainly short - allocate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with a significant rebound in this week's shipments, and the current overseas ore shipment level is higher than the same period in the past five years. The supply of domestic ore is also expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, the supply side has entered a high - shipment stage, and the supply - side support is insufficient [3] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on steel mill profit levels and the degree of steel inventory reduction. Due to the relatively high temperature this year, construction site starts may be advanced, and the market still has some optimistic expectations for demand. In the short term, the probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the steel inventory reduction node and the intensity of resumption of work. According to seasonal rules, molten iron has entered a recovery cycle, and later more attention should be paid to the recovery speed and height. From the current steel mill profit level and demand expectations, the recovery speed remains relatively gentle [3] Inventory - Steel mills still have restocking needs after the Spring Festival, but the intensity and sustainability of restocking still depend on the recovery of terminal demand. From the current port clearance level, port inventories will still be in an accumulation state. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the short - term port inventory accumulation pressure will remain high. At the same time, pay attention to the potential selling risk of trade - restricted inventories [3] Price - The expected price range is 93 - 100 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to Dalian iron ore futures at 710 - 760 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4] Later Concerns - Macro policy increments, implementation intensity of industrial policies, and the speed of supply weakening [4]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways with a wide - range oscillation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to support near the previous low, with a low - buying mindset [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand. Downstream steel mills are announcing shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and pre - holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses are further expanding, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Coupled with a generally warm macro - environment and frequent fiscal and monetary policy announcements, there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expansion of losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains off - season characteristics. Although steel mill profits have slightly recovered, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side remains limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points from last week to 40.69%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly recovered to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently, 4 steel mills have released maintenance plans, and shutdown and maintenance plans for steel mills during the Spring Festival are being announced one after another [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the steel market followed the positive macro - sentiment, with an increase in hot metal production, a recovery in furnace material prices, and a general price increase in the black market. However, as the sentiment weakened, the near - term inventory started to accumulate, and pressure increased. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater pressure on hot - rolled coils in the near term than on rebar. The overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [7][16]. Summary by Directory 01 Fundamental Changes - After the holiday, following positive macro - sentiment, hot metal rebounded, furnace material prices recovered, the black market as a whole made up for lost ground, steel prices rose with costs, and the basis quickly turned negative, with intraday premiums reaching the warehouse - receipt registration spread. There is an expected increase in rebar warehouse - receipt volume. As sentiment weakened, near - term inventory accumulation started, increasing pressure [7]. - Rebar factory inventories showed a cumulative trend. After - holiday demand fell short of expectations, the apparent demand for wire rods declined rapidly, with a 17% month - on - month decrease. Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand were weak. In January, the procurement forecast of construction enterprises surveyed by Mysteel decreased by 18% month - on - month, mainly due to fewer newly launched projects, seasonal shutdowns, and slower construction. Currently, infrastructure projects drive most of the demand, accounting for 90% of the Mysteel sample. Hot - rolled coils mainly accumulated in social inventories, and the inventory in Hangzhou remained high. Cold - rolled production increased by 2.8% month - on - month. The winter storage sentiment was dull this year, with an interest rate of 6 - 8 per thousand, and prices below 3000 yuan were considered attractive [10]. - Last week, the price of steel billets increased by 50 yuan, and the production profit of steel billets recovered. However, the price increase of finished products was weak, and the overall price difference with steel billets shrank. The price differences between hot - and cold - rolled products and between round bars and rebar remained stable [13]. 02 Outlook and Valuation - Assuming the supply of rebar and wire rods decreases by 12% and that of plates increases by 4.2% in the first 20 weeks, and the demand decreases by 7% and increases by 2% respectively, the inventory accumulation of rebar and wire rods is limited, while the inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils is relatively large. For rebar and wire rods, assuming the demand decreases by 2%, 7%, and 13% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are - 1.8%, - 6.8%, and - 12.7% to maintain seasonal inventory. For plates, assuming the demand increases by 0.4%, 3.8%, and 4.9% in the next 30 weeks, the corresponding supply adjustments are 0.8%, 4.2%, and 5.4% to maintain seasonal inventory. The 2026 demand expectation lies in the downstream construction machinery of the manufacturing industry, with greater near - term pressure on hot - rolled coils than on rebar [16]. - Based on the previous assumptions for the five major steel products, the post - Spring Festival inventory peak is 15% higher than last year. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the demand ranges from +2.6% to - 4.3%, and the supply ranges from 2.9% to - 3.8%. From this week to 25 weeks after the Spring Festival, the year - on - year change in hot metal production ranges from 2.4% to - 1.8%. According to the neutral assumption, the hot metal production before the Spring Festival is almost the same as the current level, and the required reduction in production is limited. According to the current maintenance plan, hot metal production will continue to recover in the future, but the demand needs to maintain a +2.4% level, which poses demand pressure [19]. - In terms of valuation, the on - disk blast furnace profit is at a relatively low level. The price difference between iron and scrap is 80, and the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap is not yet obvious. The on - disk pricing gives a flat - electricity profit of - 10, a valley - electricity profit of 126, and a blast furnace profit of 78, which is moderately high with limited downward space. The price difference of Turkish hot - rolled coils is 22 US dollars, and the export market is still open. The near - term export volume has declined for three consecutive weeks, which requires continuous attention. Overseas steel prices have been flat after the holiday. After the macro - sentiment fades and hot metal production recovers, the inventory starts to accumulate, and there is near - term real - market pressure. Currently, the production reduction plan is slow, and steel mill profits are under pressure. Steel mills still have a pre - holiday restocking demand for iron ore, and the overall pricing may tend to compress steel mill profits [22].

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with both supply and demand contracting, leading to a continued weak market outlook for January 2026 [1][2][12]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The steel industry PMI for December 2025 is reported at 46.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating ongoing contraction in industry operations [1]. - The production index for the steel industry is at 43.7%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a continued reduction in production activities [5]. - Key steel enterprises reported an average daily crude steel output of 186.9 million tons in early December, a 3% decrease from the previous month [5]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - The demand side remains weak, with the new orders index at 45.4%, down 3.5 percentage points, indicating five consecutive months of contraction [3]. - Real estate development investment has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, contributing to a slowdown in domestic steel demand [3]. - Export pressures are increasing, with the new export orders index at 41.1%, down 6.1 percentage points, marking two months of significant decline [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - Steel prices have shown a slight recovery, with the Shanghai rebar price index rising from 3194 yuan/ton on December 1 to 3215 yuan/ton by December 25 [9]. - Raw material prices have generally declined, with the purchasing price index dropping to 30.6%, indicating a significant reduction in cost pressures for steel production [8]. - The overall market for raw materials is weak, with iron ore prices declining due to reduced procurement needs from steel mills [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a weak demand outlook in January 2026, influenced by seasonal factors and ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12][14]. - The anticipated impact of the Spring Festival and continued environmental production restrictions will further suppress production and demand [13][14]. - Despite some potential support from infrastructure projects, the overall demand for steel is likely to remain subdued due to multiple constraining factors [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall finished steel is supported by policy expectations at the lower level, with raw material costs decreasing and profit margins gradually improving. The steel price may fluctuate within a range, with rebar expected to trade between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [3]. - The trading weight of iron ore fundamentals has slightly increased recently. However, with the alleviation of industrial chain contradictions, the recovery of steel mill profits, and the strengthening of rigid demand for winter storage replenishment, the downside price space is expected to be limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate with macro - sentiment [21]. - The marginal change in coking coal supply is limited, but due to pressure on terminal steel mill profits and continuous reduction in hot metal production, the surplus of coking coal has deepened. Coking coal prices will remain under pressure in the short term. For coke, as the cost of coking coal decreases, subsequent coke supply is expected to increase, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure [31]. - Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center may shift downward, the supply side maintains a production - cut trend, and the low valuation limits the downside space. Ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate weakly, but there may be a rebound due to production - cut drivers [46]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity commissioning expectations, the surplus expectation of soda ash is intensifying, and the futures price has begun to break through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further. The overall high inventory in the upstream and middle reaches limits the price [60]. - In December, there are renewed expectations for cold - repair of glass production lines, which will affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The near - term contract 01 will still follow the reality. Currently, there is still pressure on the spot market, and the degree of inventory destocking in the middle - stream should be observed [84]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3082 yuan/ton, 3060 yuan/ton, and 3093 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3240 yuan/ton, 3232 yuan/ton, and 3239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spread Data**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were 22 yuan/ton and 8 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 33 yuan/ton and - 7 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 11 yuan/ton and - 1 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 782.5 yuan/ton, 760.5 yuan/ton, and 738 yuan/ton respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 1.5 yuan/ton, 20.5 yuan/ton, and 43 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 319.19 tons; the global shipping volume was 3368.6 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of coking coal were 145 yuan/ton, - 74 yuan/ton, and - 71 yuan/ton respectively; those of coke were 236 yuan/ton, - 83 yuan/ton, and - 153 yuan/ton respectively [34]. - **Spot Price Data**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 922 yuan/ton [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 12, 2025, the basis of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 20 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 42 yuan/ton, - 52 yuan/ton, and 94 yuan/ton respectively [47]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 140 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 spreads were - 54 yuan/ton, - 42 yuan/ton, and 96 yuan/ton respectively [48]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 soda ash contracts were 1093 yuan/ton, 1126 yuan/ton, and 1184 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 58 yuan/ton, 91 yuan/ton, and - 33 yuan/ton respectively [61]. - **Spot Price Data**: The market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash was 50 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Price Data**: On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 glass contracts were 935 yuan/ton, 1062 yuan/ton, and 1135 yuan/ton respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 73 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and - 127 yuan/ton respectively [85]. - **Sales and Production Data**: On December 10, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 101, 94, 92, and 107 respectively [86].

Pricing - Prices are strengthening while the basis is weakening, with Tangshan steel billet increasing by 40 to 3040 yuan, Shanghai rebar up by 40 to 3130 yuan/ton, and hot rolled coil rising by 40 to 3300 yuan/ton, with May contract basis at -13 yuan/ton and -17 yuan/ton respectively [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore remains relatively strong. Recent declines in coal prices have weakened support for coking coal. Steel mill profits have slightly recovered from low levels, but are expected to remain low during the off-season. Current profit rankings from high to low are cold rolled > steel billet > hot rolled > rebar [1] Supply - From January to November, iron element output increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with an expected annual growth of 4%. Hot metal production continues to decline, down by 24,000 tons to 2.32 million tons. Seasonal production cuts due to high steel inventory are affecting steel mills, with slight increases in the production of five major materials. Total production decreased by 26,700 tons to 8.29 million tons, with rebar production down by 17,000 tons to 1.89 million tons, below the required 2.17 million tons. Hot rolled production decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.14 million tons, close to the required 3.15 million tons. Rebar maintains a significant supply-demand gap, allowing for continued destocking, while hot rolled supply and demand are balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [1] Demand - Analyzing demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices for steel exports. November apparent demand increased to 8.77 million tons from 8.66 million tons in October, but is weaker year-on-year compared to last year's 8.81 million tons. December apparent demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a decrease of 240,000 tons to 8.64 million tons. Both rebar and hot rolled apparent demand have declined, with rebar down by 110,000 tons to 2.17 million tons and hot rolled down by 54,000 tons to 3.15 million tons [2] Inventory - This week, inventory reduction is acceptable, with total inventory of five major materials down by 350,000 tons to 13.66 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 280,000 tons to 5.04 million tons, while hot rolled inventory slightly decreased by 5,000 tons to 4 million tons. The reduction in hot rolled production is not significant, and supply-demand remains balanced, leading to slow inventory reduction [3] Market Outlook - Influenced by potential support for Vanke, expectations for the real estate sector are improving, leading to a low-level price increase in the black series. The recent dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, including interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion, is expected to boost market sentiment. Previous declines in steel prices were primarily driven by falling raw material coking coal prices. The steel market fundamentals show a trend of production cuts and inventory reduction, but overall demand strength is average, with year-on-year demand declines and a downward cycle in hot metal production suppressing raw material prices. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile, with rebar and hot rolled prices to be monitored within the ranges of 3000-3200 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively. Considering the divergence in inventory reduction between rebar and hot rolled, the January rebar-hot rolled spread arbitrage can continue to be held, while the long rebar and short iron ore arbitrage should exit [4]