2 0 2 5 / 9 / 1 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 研究联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 核心观点 | 中性 | 上周盘面震荡下行。铁水小幅回落，同比仍为正增长，预计下周铁水环比显著回落，上周螺纹产量明显 回升，大幅累库，表观需求回升，热卷产量增小幅下降，小幅累库，表需有所下降，五品种成材总产量 环比小幅增加，整体累库，需求小幅回升。估值来看，长流程钢厂利润持续收窄，短流程钢厂谷电利润 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 略有亏损，焦炭第八轮提涨落空，市场反馈后期有提降预期。关注后续铁水变动情况以及出口恢复情况。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差结构为contango，持续呈反套趋势，市场反馈后期螺纹仓单压力较大，需关注交割情况。 | | 钢厂利润 | 偏空 | 本周247家钢铁企业盈利率为63.64%，环比继续小幅回落。 | | 废钢 | 中性 | 根据测算， ...

【现货】 【供应】 1-7月铁元素产量同比增长1800万吨，增幅3.1%，增速比前6月回落为了0.1个百分点。环比看，7月产量 与6月基本持平。由于去年8-9月是个低基数，预计三季度产量增速会环比回升。截止7月底，铁水产量 241万吨，持稳；废钢日耗54.7万吨，环比有所回升。分品种看，螺纹钢产量211万吨，低位持稳；热卷 产量323万吨，高位再次回升。前5月产量持续低于表需，6-7月表需季节性回落，产量和表需基本持 平，考虑8月是淡季，预计产量微幅高于表需，四季度产量和表需有上升预期。 【需求】 1-7月五大材表需同比基本持平（-0.2%），而产量降幅大于表需（-1.3%）。铁元素产量增量（3%）更 多流向非五大材和钢坯。1-7月内需同比下降，外需同比增加（钢材直接出口和间接出口增幅较大）， 钢材总需求同比有增加（日均产量同比增加；表需同比持平，库存同比下降）。环比看，淡季环比回落 幅度不大。并且关税影响的需求降幅被直接出口增量对冲。 【库存】 近期产量跟随表需波动，主流材库存低位走平（同比下降），淡季累库不及预期。本期五大材库存环比 +15.4万吨至1352万吨，其中螺纹+7.7万吨至546万吨；热卷+2 ...

截止7月31日收盘，铁矿主力2509合约-19（-2.38%），收于789.0元/吨，铁矿远月2601合约-20.5 （-2.65%），收于766.0。 【基差】 最优交割品为卡粉。卡粉、PB粉、巴混粉和金布巴仓单成本分别为793.4元/吨、818.4元/吨、823.4元/吨 和831.6元/吨。09合约卡粉、PB粉、巴混和金布巴基差分别是14.4元/吨、39.4元/吨、44.4元/吨和52.6元/ 吨。 【需求】 日均铁水产量240.71万吨，环比-1.52万吨；高炉开工率83.46%，环比持平；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.24%，环比-0.57%；钢厂盈利率65.37%，环比+1.73%。 【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉持平至772.0元/吨，卡粉持平至874.0元/吨。 【期货】 港口库存小幅去库，日均疏港量环比下降，钢厂进口矿库存环比上升。45港库存13657.90万吨，环 比-132.48万吨；45港日均疏港量302.71万吨，环比-12.44万吨；钢厂进口矿库存9012.09万吨，环比 +126.87万吨。 【观点】 昨日铁矿09合约震荡下跌走势。基本面来看，铁矿石全球发运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the macro - atmosphere has been warm, leading to a strong rebound in the coking coal and coke futures market. Speculative demand has entered the market to lock in goods, tightening the spot liquidity. Coal enterprises have raised prices, pressuring coking profits. The second round of price increases by coking plants at the beginning of the week is likely to be implemented. - This week, iron ore prices rebounded strongly, shrinking the immediate steel profits, but the steel profits calculated based on raw material inventories are still expanding. Steel mills have little intention to voluntarily reduce hot metal production, resulting in strong procurement demand for coking coal and coke. - In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. In the long - term, the sharp rise in furnace materials poses a potential threat to steel mill profitability, and high hot metal production may not be sustainable. Steel billet export orders have declined significantly, and inventory accumulation in Tangshan has accelerated, which may trigger a negative feedback mechanism. - In terms of operations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and not to chase high prices. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal and coke. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Double - Coking Price Range Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 850 - 1130, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 1450 - 1650, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13%. [3] 3.2 Double - Coking Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - For inventory hedging, when the coke futures price is significantly higher than the spot price and the delivery profit is considerable, it is recommended to short J2509. The hedging ratio is 25% when entering the market at 1650 - 1700 and 50% at 1700 - 1750. [3] 3.3 Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Decrease in Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased by 897 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 293 tons, coking coal decreased by 500 hands, and silicon manganese decreased by 1177 sheets. - **Increase in Inventory**: The inventory of silicon iron increased by 200 sheets. - **No Change in Inventory**: The inventory of iron ore and coke remained unchanged. [3] 3.4 Core Contradiction - Short - term: The combination of speculative and rigid demand supports the prices of coking coal and coke, and the market may continue to fluctuate strongly. - Long - term: The strong rise of furnace materials threatens steel mill profits, and high hot metal production may not last. Steel billet export and inventory issues may trigger negative feedback. [4] 3.5利多解读 - The "Supply - side 2.0" has affected market sentiment, creating a positive market outlook. - Downstream steel mills have good profits, with a per - ton profit of over 100, and hot metal production in July is unlikely to decrease. - There is speculation about the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. [5] 3.6利空解读 - Coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production ahead of schedule. - The military parade on September 3 may affect steel production around Hebei. - The shipment of imported coal has increased, leading to greater pressure on future arrivals at ports. [6] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Price Data - **Coking Coal**: The spot and futures prices, basis, and spreads have shown various changes. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread decreased by 0.5 compared to the previous day and 6.5 compared to the previous week. - **Coke**: Similar price, basis, and spread changes are observed. The coke 09 - 01 spread decreased by 6 compared to the previous day and 7 compared to the previous week. - **Other Ratios**: The coking profit, ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio also changed. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The downstream construction demand continues to decline on a month - on - month basis, and the apparent demand for major steel products has also weakened. The valuation of the black sector continues to oscillate weakly. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals show signs of entering the off - season, with a lack of demand highlights. Coupled with the strengthened market expectation of increased iron ore supply in the second half of the year, it is difficult for the futures price to obtain continuous price support. In the short term, the iron ore price may continue to oscillate weakly [4][48]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review and Price Performance 1.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 750,000 lots, a decrease of 6,700 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of imported iron ore at ports remained stable this week. Among them, the price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port dropped 13 yuan/ton to 845 yuan/ton, and the price of 62.5% BRBF dropped 16 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton. For domestic iron ore, the price of 66% iron concentrate in Tangshan dropped 5 yuan/ton to 930 yuan/ton, while the price of 66% iron concentrate in Hanxing and 65% iron concentrate in Laiwu increased by 21 yuan/ton to 947 yuan/ton and 865 yuan/ton respectively. The Platts 62% index closed at 98.95 US dollars/dry ton this week, a week - on - week increase of 2.15 US dollars/dry ton [8]. 1.2 Spread Changes - **Spot Variety Spread**: This week, the price decline of low - grade ore at ports was relatively small, and the spread between medium - and low - grade ores narrowed [15]. - **Periodic - Spot and Futures Inter - Month Spread**: This week, the main iron ore contract 2509 was at a discount of 107.1 yuan/ton compared to the 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port, 3.1 yuan/ton less than the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 35.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 55.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous week [20]. 2. Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 2.1 Supply - **Foreign Ore Shipment and Domestic Arrival**: As of May 16, the weekly shipment volume from Australia was 1.6489 billion tons, and that from Brazil was 751.1 million tons, a total of 2.4 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 250.1 million tons. The arrival volume at northern Chinese ports was 1.0578 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 203.6 million tons [25]. - **Domestic Ore Capacity Utilization**: As of May 23, the capacity utilization rate of 266 mines nationwide was 66.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54% [26]. - **Iron Ore Freight**: The freight from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.86 US dollars, the same as the previous period, and the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 8.48 US dollars, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 US dollars. Recently, the shipment volume of mainstream mines has increased slightly on a month - on - month basis [27]. 2.2 Demand - As of May 23, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 91.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. The total weekly output of five major steel products was 8.7244 million tons, an increase of 40,900 tons from the previous week, mainly driven by the increase in rebar and wire rod production. The iron - water production has reached an inflection point, but downstream construction is still at a relatively high level [35][36]. 2.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 139.8783 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7826 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 2.436 million tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore decreased by 1.074 million tons to 59.1268 million tons, Brazilian ore decreased by 693,900 tons to 52.3989 million tons, and trade ore decreased by 139,700 tons to 94.5341 million tons [39]. 2.4 Steel Mill Profits - With the appearance of the iron - water production inflection point, the profit situation of steel mills has improved with the continuous decline in coking coal and coke prices. In terms of futures profits, as of May 23, the futures profit of the rebar 2510 contract was 123.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.74 yuan/ton from last week; the futures profit of the hot - rolled coil 2510 contract was 216.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.74 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of spot profits, as of May 23, the spot profit of rebar was 71.30 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.17 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 101.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.83 yuan/ton from the previous week [42]. 2.5 Technical Analysis - This week, the price of the main iron ore contract I2509 oscillated downward, closing at 718.0 yuan/ton. The short - term upper resistance level is 802 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 640 yuan/ton [46].