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1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/1 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 PB - 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 -57% 2022 2023 2024 2025 / 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/9 | | | | | | | 现货 | | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | | 品种 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | | 普氏62指数 | | 103.45 | | ...

| | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | | 普氏62指数 | | 106.55 | 1.35 | 0.20 | | | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 795 | 0 | 10 | | 850.9 | 104.50 | 0.15 | 1.15 | -35.39 | | | | PB粉 | 799 | 0 | 10 | | 848.1 | 107.30 | 0.30 | 1.50 | -16.11 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 789 | 2 | 12 | | 861.7 | 103.25 | 0.00 | 1.15 | -7.00 | | | | 金布巴 | 770 | 0 | 10 | | 864.6 | 100.50 | -0.10 | 0.65 | -11.52 | | | 主流 | 混合粉 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand and supply dynamics, with a notable increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, indicating a potential tightening of the market [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have significantly increased, reaching 35.731 million tons, up by 8.169 million tons week-on-week [5]. - Port arrivals have decreased to 23.623 million tons, down by 0.857 million tons week-on-week, primarily due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports [5][7]. Demand - Daily average iron and steel production has risen to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces is at 83.83%, up by 3.43% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [4]. - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased to 60.17%, down by 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has seen a slight decrease, with a total of 138.4947 million tons, down by 0.02 million tons [6]. - The average daily dispatch from ports has increased to 3.3128 million tons, up by 0.135 million tons week-on-week [6]. - Steel mill imported ore inventory has increased to 89.9305 million tons, up by 5.318 million tons week-on-week [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a closing price of 803.5 yuan/ton, up by 7.5 yuan (+0.94%) [2][7]. - The market is expected to remain tight, with a suggested trading range of 780-850 yuan/ton for the iron ore 2601 contract, and a recommendation to buy on dips [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided 3. Summary Based on Related Content 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder was priced at 795, unchanged daily but up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 850.9; PB powder was at 799, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 848.1; Macfarlane powder was at 785, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.4; Jinbuba powder was at 763, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 857.0; mainstream mixed powder was at 745, up 1 daily and 33 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 875.4; super special powder was at 705, unchanged daily and up 29 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 922.2; Roy Hill powder was at 769, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 846.5 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore was at 820, down 4 daily and up 18 weekly, with a discounted futures price of 835.2; Brazilian coarse IOC6 was at 804, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG was at 809, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; 61% Indian powder was at 752, unchanged daily and up 23 weekly; Karara concentrate was at 927, up 2 daily and 30 weekly; KUMBA powder was at 858, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; 57% Indian powder was at 645, unchanged daily and up 24 weekly; Atlas powder was at 740, up 1 daily and 33 weekly; Tangshan iron concentrate was at 1004, up 3 daily and 18 weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Dalian Commodity Exchange Contracts**: i2601 was at 805.0, unchanged daily and up 28 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 42.5; i2605 was at 781.0, unchanged daily and up 26.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 24.0; i2509 was at 847.5, down 2.5 daily and up 34.5 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 66.5 [1]. - **Singapore Exchange Contracts**: FE01 was at 103.70, up 1.69 daily and 3.73 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 3.05; FE05 was at 101.26, up 1.62 daily and 3.66 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of 2.44; FE09 was at 106.75, up 1.50 daily and 3.41 weekly, with an inter - monthly spread of - 5.49 [1]. 3.3 Premium and Other Information - **Premium**: Information on PB block/block ore premium, Ukrainian ball/ball pellet premium was presented in the form of charts, but specific data was not detailed in the text [1]. - **Import Profit**: Import profits of different iron ore varieties were provided, such as Newman powder's import profit was - 36.82, PB powder's was - 15.30, etc. [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 779, down 2 from the previous day and up 3 week - on - week; PB powder is at 782, down 3 and up 3 respectively; Macfarlane powder is 770, down 1 and up 4; Jinbuba powder is 749, down 2 and down 1; Super Special powder is 688, up 3 and up 15; Carajás powder is 897, up 3 and up 6 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian blend is 805, down 5 and down 11; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 787, down 3 and up 3; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 792, down 3 and up 3 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; 61% Indian powder is 738, down 2 and down 1; Karara concentrate is 910, unchanged and up 7; Roy Hill powder is 752, down 3 and up 3; KUMBA powder is 841, down 3 and up 3; 57% Indian powder is 628, down 2 and up 10; Atlas powder is 717, down 3 and up 4; Tangshan iron concentrate is 996, up 7 and up 7 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 789.5, down 2.0 and up 2.0; i2605 is 765.0, down 2.5 and up 1.5; i2509 is 834.5, up 3.5 and up 31.5 [1]. - **FE Contracts**: FE01 is 101.53, up 2.31 and down 1.46; FE05 is 99.16, up 2.35 and down 1.47; FE09 is 104.67, up 2.12 and up 0.47 [1]. Price Differences - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: For i2601, it's 45.0, with a day - change of - 3.4 and a week - change of - 7.5; for i2605, it's 24.5, with a day - change of - 2.9 and a week - change of - 7.0; for i2509, it's - 69.5, with a day - change of - 8.9 and a week - change of - 37.0 [1]. - **Other Price Differences**: FE01 has a price difference of 3.14, with a day - change of 1.9 and a week - change of 12.7; FE05 has a price difference of 2.37, with a day - change of 0.4 and a week - change of 13.8; FE09 has a price difference of - 5.51, with a day - change of 7.3 and a week - change of 16.1 [1].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The report focuses on iron ore, suggesting that carbon elements transfer profits and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level [1]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Futures - The closing price of iron ore futures was 791.5 yuan/ton, up 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.87% [1]. - The position of contract 12601 was 506,983 lots, with an increase of 41,053 lots [1]. Spot Prices - Imported ore: The price of Carajás fines (65%) was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) was 785 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) was 752 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; Super Special fines (56.5%) was 685 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic ore: The price of Langna ore (66%) was 931 yuan/ton, unchanged; Laiwu ore (65%) was 849 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Spreads - The basis of contract 12601 against Super Special fines was 105.2 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton; against Jinbuba fines was 42.4 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread between 12509 - 12601 was 39.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton; between 12601 - 12605 was 24 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The price difference between Carajás fines - PB fines was 115 yuan/ton, unchanged; PB fines - Jinbuba fines was 33 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; PB fines - Super Special fines was 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3. Macro and Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - The latest prices of Newman powder, PB powder, and Mac powder are 781, 785, and 771 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 10, and 11, and weekly changes of 4, 4, and 4 [1] - The latest prices of Kumba powder, 57% Indian powder, and Atlas powder are 844, 630, and 720 respectively, with daily changes of 10, 9, and 13, and weekly changes of 4, 12, and 7 [1] - The latest price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 989, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 3 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - The latest prices of i2601, i2605, and i2509 are 791.5, 767.5, and 831.0 respectively, with daily changes of 14.5, 13.0, and 18.0, and weekly changes of 1.0, 2.0, and 20.0 [1] - The latest prices of FE01, FE05, and FE09 are 99.97, 97.60, and 103.34 respectively, with daily changes of 1.47, 1.54, and 1.63, and weekly changes of -1.62, -1.60, and 0.84 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary of Iron Ore Spot Market - The latest price of Newman powder is 765, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 818.3, and the import profit is -33.33 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 769, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -1. The discounted price on the disk is 815.2, and the import profit is -15.16 [1] - The latest price of Mac powder is 755, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -3. The discounted price on the disk is 824.7, and the import profit is -9.56 [1] - Similar data is provided for other iron ore types such as Jimbob, mixed powder, super special powder, etc. [1] Group 4: Summary of Iron Ore Futures Market - For the i2601 contract, the latest price is 771.5, with a daily change of 5.5 and a weekly change of -5.0. The monthly spread is 30.5, and relevant spread data is also given [1] - For the i2605 contract, the latest price is 750.0, with a daily change of 7.0 and a weekly change of -4.0. The monthly spread is 21.5, and relevant spread data is also given [1] - Similar data is provided for other futures contracts such as i2509, FE01, FE05, FE09 [1]