Workflow
卡粉
icon
Search documents
铁矿石早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 03:03
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: April 1, 2026 [2] Group 2: Spot Market Australia - **Newman Powder**: Latest price is 747, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 7. The discounted price on the futures market is 798.7, the forward price is 100.45, with a daily decrease of 0.65 and a weekly decrease of 1.65. The import profit is -30.36 [3] - **PB Powder**: Latest price is 777, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 826.9 [3] - **Mac Powder**: Latest price is 766, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 836.7, the forward price is 100.55, with a daily decrease of 0.60 and a weekly decrease of 0.75. The import profit is 11.38 [3] - **Jimbobara**: Latest price is 730, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 821.5, the forward price is 96.90, with a daily decrease of 0.60 and a weekly increase of 0.45. The import profit is -3.86 [3] - **Mixed Powder**: Latest price is 709, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 13. The discounted price on the futures market is 845.5, the forward price is 99.70, with a daily decrease of 0.85 and a weekly decrease of 1.20. The import profit is -40.67 [3] - **Ultra - Special Powder**: Latest price is 668, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 10. The discounted price on the futures market is 887.6, the forward price is 94.15, with a daily decrease of 0.80 and a weekly decrease of 1.00. The import profit is -31.18 [3] - **Caribbean Powder**: Latest price is 943, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 881.8, the forward price is 126.10, with a daily decrease of 0.75 and a weekly decrease of 1.10. The import profit is 6.88 [3] Brazil - **Brazilian Blend**: Latest price is 821, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 827.6, the forward price is 113.90, with a daily decrease of 0.80 and a weekly decrease of 1.45. The import profit is -22.85 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse IOC6**: Latest price is 741, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 17. The discounted price on the futures market is 818.9 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse SSFG**: Latest price is 746, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 17 [3] Non - Mainstream - **Ukrainian Concentrate**: Latest price is 877, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The discounted price on the futures market is 957.6 [3] - **61% Indian Powder**: Latest price is 719, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21 [3] - **Carrara Concentrate**: Latest price is 880, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The discounted price on the futures market is 900.6 [3] - **Roy Hill Powder**: Latest price is 764, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 841.0, the forward price is 99.60, with a daily decrease of 0.70 and a weekly decrease of 1.40. The import profit is 23.01 [3] - **KUMBA Powder**: Latest price is 836, with a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly decrease of 21. The discounted price on the futures market is 815.1 [3] - **57% Indian Powder**: Latest price is 600, with a daily decrease of 3 and a weekly decrease of 13 [3] - **Atlas Powder**: Latest price is 704, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 13 [3] Others - **PB Lump / Lump Premium**: Latest price is 888, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly decrease of 20. The premium is 0.13, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.0385 [3] - **Ukrainian Pellets / Pellet Premium**: Latest price is 877, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 18. The premium is 17.35, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.05 [3] - **Domestic Ore (Tangshan Iron Concentrate)**: Latest price is 969, with no daily or weekly change. The discounted price on the futures market is 856.0 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange - **i2701**: Latest price is 769.0, with a daily decrease of 2.5 and a weekly increase of 2.5. The monthly spread is 17.5, the basis is 46.1, with a daily decrease of 4.7 and a weekly decrease of 24.1 [3] - **i2605**: Latest price is 808.0, with a daily decrease of 5.0 and a weekly decrease of 16.0. The monthly spread is -39.0, the basis is 7.1, with a daily decrease of 2.2 and a weekly decrease of 5.6 [3] - **i2609**: Latest price is 786.5, with a daily decrease of 4.5 and a weekly decrease of 4.0. The monthly spread is 21.5, the basis is 28.6, with a daily decrease of 2.7 and a weekly decrease of 17.6 [3] Singapore Exchange - **FE01**: Latest price is 101.51, with a daily increase of 0.04 and a weekly decrease of 0.59. The monthly spread is 1.91, the basis is -21.3, with a daily increase of 1.8 and a weekly increase of 6.2 [3] - **FE05**: Latest price is 106.23, with a daily increase of 0.26 and a weekly decrease of 0.79. The monthly spread is -4.72, the basis is -16.7, with a daily decrease of 0.9 and a weekly decrease of 10.3 [3] - **FE09**: Latest price is 103.42, with a daily increase of 0.03 and a weekly decrease of 0.64. The monthly spread is 2.81, the basis is -16.8, with a daily increase of 2.9 and a weekly increase of 0.9 [3]
宏源期货:宏源期货-2026-03-30涨跌
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 01:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of near - end iron ore is supported by factors such as the decrease in Australian shipments due to hurricanes, the increase in Brazilian shipments, the improvement of molten iron production after the Two Sessions, and the enhanced expectation of rising shipping costs caused by geopolitical conflicts. However, the medium - and long - term trend depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of molten iron production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will restrict the upward movement of prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and cautious operation is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Rate and Spot Price - The basis rate of I2701 on March 31, 2026, was 769.0, down 2.5 from March 30; the basis rate of I2605 was 808.0, down 5.0; the basis rate of I2609 was 786.5, down 2.0. The spot prices of various iron ore varieties also showed different degrees of decline, such as the price of Jinbuba powder dropped from 737 to 730, a decrease of 7.0 [1] 2. Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index decreased by 21, Mysteel 62% index decreased by 30, Mysteel 58% index decreased by 21. Import profits of different varieties also changed, for example, the import profit of Newman powder increased by 0.11 [1] 3. MS Inventory - The total iron ore inventory on March 27, 2026, was 17000, down 98 from March 20. Australian ore inventory decreased by 8, Brazilian ore inventory decreased by 44, and trader inventory decreased by 53 [1] 4. Strategy - **Night - session review**: The futures price of iron ore i2605 closed at 815 yuan/ton, i2609 at 792.5 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.5 yuan. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 777 (-7) yuan/ton, and the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, was 789 yuan after discounting the warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) [1] - **Important information**: From March 23 to March 29, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 120.7 tons to 1273.7 tons. In March, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all returned to the expansion range. On March 31, the transaction volume of iron ore at major ports increased by 98.5% month - on - month, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. As of now, there are about 300 coking production enterprises in China, with a total coke production capacity of about 5.70 billion tons. In mid - March, the output of key coal enterprises increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 3.9% year - on - year [1] - **Trading strategy**: Volatile [2]
铁矿石早报-20260327
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 01:19
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] - Date: March 27, 2026 [2] - Data Source: MYSTEEL [7] Group 2: Spot Market Information Australian Mainstream Iron Ore - Newman Powder: Latest price is 736, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 786.7, import profit is -50.99 [3] - PB Powder: Latest price is 794, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 845.6 [3] - Mac Powder: Latest price is 777, daily change is 10, weekly change is 0, converted to the disk is 848.7, import profit is 13.03 [3] - Jinbuba: Latest price is 747, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 839.8, import profit is 16.74 [3] - Mixed Powder: Latest price is 720, daily change is 10, weekly change is 1, converted to the disk is 857.4, import profit is -34.72 [3] - Super Special Powder: Latest price is 678, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8, converted to the disk is 898.6, import profit is -25.13 [3] - Carat Powder: Latest price is 956, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8, converted to the disk is 895.8, import profit is 17.67 [3] Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore - Brazilian Mixed: Latest price is 835, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8, converted to the disk is 842.8, import profit is -13.63 [3] - Brazilian Coarse IOC6: Latest price is 758, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8, converted to the disk is 837.4 [3] - Brazilian Coarse SSFG: Latest price is 763, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8 [3] Other Iron Ore - Ukrainian Concentrate: Latest price is 890, daily change is 10, weekly change is 7, converted to the disk is 962.2 [3] - 61% Indian Powder: Latest price is 736, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4 [3] - Karara Concentrate: Latest price is 893, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 915.0 [3] - Roy Hill Powder: Latest price is 781, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 859.6, import profit is 34.29 [3] - KUMBA Powder: Latest price is 853, daily change is 10, weekly change is 4, converted to the disk is 832.6 [3] - 57% Indian Powder: Latest price is 613, daily change is 10, weekly change is 8 [3] - Atlas Powder: Latest price is 715, daily change is 10, weekly change is 1 [3] Others - PB Lump/Ore Premium: Latest price is 905, daily change is 10, weekly change is 5 [3] - Ukrainian Pellet/Pellet Premium: Latest price is 890, daily change is 10, weekly change is 7 [3] - Tangshan Iron Concentrate: Latest price is 969, daily change is 6, weekly change is 0, converted to the disk is 856.0 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Information Dalian Commodity Exchange - i2701: Latest price is 767.5, daily change is 10.5, weekly change is 11.0, monthly spread is 20.0, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is 65.1, daily change is -0.2, weekly change is -6.9 [3] - i2605: Latest price is 817.0, daily change is 10.5, weekly change is 9.5, monthly spread is -49.5, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is 15.6, daily change is -0.2, weekly change is -5.4 [3] - i2609: Latest price is 787.5, daily change is 10.0, weekly change is 11.5, monthly spread is 29.5, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is 45.1, daily change is 0.3, weekly change is -7.4 [3] Singapore Exchange - FE01: Latest price is 100.40, daily change is -1.50, weekly change is -1.27, monthly spread is 1.71, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is -26.3, daily change is 1.3, weekly change is 8.4 [3] - FE05: Latest price is 104.39, daily change is -2.17, weekly change is -1.82, monthly spread is -3.99, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is -7.9, daily change is -1.5, weekly change is 11.4 [3] - FE09: Latest price is 102.11, daily change is -1.60, weekly change is -1.37, monthly spread is 2.28, basis/inner and outer disk spread (in RMB) is -19.1, daily change is -1.5, weekly change is 10.6 [3]
铁矿石早报-20260325
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 03:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - The latest price of the Platts 61 index is 109.45, with a daily change of -0.10 and a weekly change of 0.65 [3] - For Australian mainstream ores, Newman powder is priced at 740, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 5; PB powder is 798, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 1; etc [3] - For Brazilian mainstream ores, the price of Bahun is 842, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 8; the price of Baocu IOC6 is 758, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 1 [3] - The price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder (domestic ore) is 969, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -4 [3] Forward Market - For DCE contracts, the latest price of i2701 is 766.5, with a daily change of 4.0 and a weekly change of 1.5; the latest price of i2605 is 824.0, with a daily change of 5.0 and a weekly change of 7.5; the latest price of i2609 is 790.5, with a daily change of 4.0 and a weekly change of 5.0 [3] - For SGX contracts, the latest price of FE01 is 102.10, with a daily change of -0.17 and a weekly change of 0.60; the latest price of FE05 is 107.02, with a daily change of -0.07 and a weekly change of 0.84; the latest price of FE09 is 104.06, with a daily change of -0.04 and a weekly change of 0.63 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of i2701 is 70.2, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of -0.5; the basis of i2605 is 12.7, with a daily change of -4.0 and a weekly change of -6.5; the basis of i2609 is 46.2, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of -4.0 [3] - The spread between FE01 and FE05 is 1.96, with a daily change of 5.8 and a weekly change of 0.3; the spread between FE05 and FE09 is -4.92, with a daily change of 5.1 and a weekly change of 6.4; the spread between FE09 and FE01 is 2.96, with a daily change of 6.8 and a weekly change of 4.1 [3]
银河期货铁矿石日报-20260324
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoint - No relevant content found 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 price increased from 762.5 to 766.5, a rise of 4.0; DCE05 rose from 819.0 to 824.0, an increase of 5.0; DCE09 climbed from 786.5 to 790.5, a gain of 4.0 [2] - The spread I01 - I05 decreased by 1.0 to -57.5; I05 - I09 increased by 1.0 to 33.5; I09 - I01 remained unchanged at 24.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) remained at 794; Newman powder stayed at 739; Macfarlane powder rose from 780 to 782; etc. [2] - The optimal deliverable is Newman powder, with a price of 808, 01 - contract basis of 38, 05 - contract basis of -19, and 09 - contract basis of 14 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - The spread of Carajás - PB powder increased by 2 to 159; Newman - Jinbuba decreased by 2 to -11; etc. [2] Import Profits - Carajás import profit increased from 15 to 18; Newman powder's import profit rose from -23 to -21; etc. [2] Indexes - The price of Platts Iron Ore 61% decreased from 109.6 to 109.5; 65% dropped from 127.2 to 127.1; 58% fell from 99.1 to 98.9 [2] - The spread of SGX main - DCE01 decreased from 14.0 to 13.4; SGX main - DCE05 dropped from 6.7 to 6.1; SGX main - DCE09 declined from 11.1 to 10.3 [2]
银河期货铁矿石日报-20260323
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 13:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View No information provided. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalog Futures Prices - DCE01 increased from 759.0 to 762.5, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE05 increased from 815.5 to 819.0, a rise of 3.5 [2] - DCE09 increased from 781.0 to 786.5, a rise of 5.5 [2] Spread between Contracts - I01 - I05 remained unchanged at -56.5 [2] - I05 - I09 decreased from 34.5 to 32.5, a drop of 2.0 [2] - I09 - I01 increased from 22.0 to 24.0, a rise of 2.0 [2] Spot Prices - PB powder (60.8%) increased from 787 to 794, a rise of 7 [2] - Newman powder increased from 732 to 739, a rise of 7 [2] - Mac powder increased from 778 to 780, a rise of 2 [2] Spot Price Spreads - The spread between Carajás fines and PB powder remained unchanged at 157 [2] - The spread between Newman powder and Jimbour increased from -11 to -9, a rise of 2 [2] - The spread between Carajás fines and Jimbour increased from 205 to 207, a rise of 2 [2] Import Profits - The import profit of Carajás fines increased from 13 to 15, a rise of 2 [2] - The import profit of Newman powder increased from -23 to -22, a rise of 1 [2] - The import profit of PB powder decreased from -20 to -21, a drop of 1 [2] Platts Index - Platts iron ore 61% price increased from 108.4 to 109.6, a rise of 1.1 [2] - Platts iron ore 65% price increased from 126.1 to 127.2, a rise of 1.2 [2] - Platts iron ore 58% price increased from 98.1 to 99.1, a rise of 1.0 [2] USD Spread between Domestic and Overseas Markets - SGX main - DCE01 increased from 13.2 to 14.0, a rise of 0.8 [2] - SGX main - DCE05 increased from 6.7 to 6.8, a rise of 0.1 [2] - SGX main - DCE09 increased from 10.7 to 11.1, a rise of 0.4 [2]
铁矿石早报-20260323
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:06
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [2] - Report Team: Research Center Black Team [2] Group 2: Spot Market Australia - **Newman Powder**: The latest price is 737, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of 7. The discounted price on the disk is 787.8, the forward price is 103.15, with a daily change of 0.90 and a weekly change of 0.35. The import profit is -59.17 [3] - **PB Powder**: The latest price is 795, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 846.7 [3] - **MacPowder**: The latest price is 780, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -5. The discounted price on the disk is 851.9, the forward price is 103.15, with a daily change of 0.80 and a weekly change of 0.40. The import profit is 7.90 [3] - **Jimbob**: The latest price is 748, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 840.9, the forward price is 97.45, with a daily change of 0.90 and a weekly change of 0.95. The import profit is 11.32 [3] - **Mixed Powder**: The latest price is 722, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -8. The discounted price on the disk is 859.5, the forward price is 101.25, with a daily change of 0.70 and a weekly change of 0.50. The import profit is -37.61 [3] - **Ultra - Special Powder**: The latest price is 675, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -3. The discounted price on the disk is 895.3, the forward price is 95.55, with a daily change of 0.80 and a weekly change of 0.50. The import profit is -33.00 [3] - **Carol Powder**: The latest price is 956, with a daily change of 8 and a weekly change of 6. The discounted price on the disk is 895.8, the forward price is 127.75, with a daily change of 0.70 and a weekly change of 0.25. The import profit is 9.55 [3] Brazil - **Brazilian Blend**: The latest price is 832, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 839.5, the forward price is 115.85, with a daily change of 0.75 and a weekly change of 0.60. The import profit is -24.35 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse IOC6**: The latest price is 755, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 834.2 [3] - **Brazilian Coarse SSFG**: The latest price is 760, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2 [3] Non - mainstream - **Ukrainian Concentrate**: The latest price is 888, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -7. The discounted price on the disk is 980.2 [3] - **61% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 737, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2 [3] - **Karara Concentrate**: The latest price is 894, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -7. The discounted price on the disk is 916.1 [3] - **Roy Hill Powder**: The latest price is 782, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 860.7, the forward price is 101.40, with a daily change of 0.85 and a weekly change of 0.50. The import profit is 29.39 [3] - **KUMBA Powder**: The latest price is 854, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -2. The discounted price on the disk is 833.6 [3] - **57% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 610, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -3 [3] - **Atlas Powder**: The latest price is 717, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -8 [3] Others - **PB Lump/Lump Premium**: The latest price is 905, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -8. The premium is 0.1685, with no daily change and no weekly change [3] - **Ukrainian Pellet/Pellet Premium**: The latest price is 888, with a daily change of 5 and a weekly change of -7. The premium is 17.50, with a daily change of 0.00 and a weekly change of -0.05 [3] - **Domestic Ore (Tangshan Iron Concentrate)**: The latest price is 969, with no daily change and a weekly change of -4. The discounted price on the disk is 856.0 [3] Group 3: Futures Market Dalian Commodity Exchange - **i2701**: The latest price is 759.0, with a daily change of 2.5 and a weekly change of 0.5. The monthly spread is 22.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is 28.8, with a daily change of 2.9 and a weekly change of 7.1 [3] - **i2605**: The latest price is 815.5, with a daily change of 8.0 and a weekly change of 4.0. The monthly spread is -56.5, the basis/inside - outside spread is -27.7, with a daily change of -2.6 and a weekly change of 3.6 [3] - **i2609**: The latest price is 781.0, with a daily change of 5.0 and a weekly change of 3.5. The monthly spread is 34.5, the basis/inside - outside spread is 6.8, with a daily change of 0.4 and a weekly change of 4.1 [3] Singapore Exchange - **FE01**: The latest price is 101.47, with a daily change of -0.20 and a weekly change of -1.60. The monthly spread is 1.86, the basis/inside - outside spread is -34.7, with a daily change of -3.1 and a weekly change of -4.1 [3] - **FE05**: The latest price is 106.03, with a daily change of -0.18 and a weekly change of -0.72. The monthly spread is -4.56, the basis/inside - outside spread is -19.3, with a daily change of -5.4 and a weekly change of -6.1 [3] - **FE09**: The latest price is 103.33, with a daily change of -0.15 and a weekly change of -1.32. The monthly spread is 2.70, the basis/inside - outside spread is -29.7, with a daily change of -5.1 and a weekly change of -3.7 [3]
铁矿石早报-20260319
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 05:24
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Iron Ore Morning Report [1] - Report Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: Spot Market Data Australia - **Newman Powder**: The latest price is 735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 34. The discounted futures price is 785.6, the forward price is 102.45, with a daily decrease of 1.40 and a weekly increase of 2.85. The import profit is -54.47 [3]. - **PB Powder**: The latest price is 793, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 844.5 [3]. - **Mac Powder**: The latest price is 780, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 19. The discounted futures price is 851.9, the forward price is 102.50, with a daily decrease of 1.50 and a weekly increase of 3.15. The import profit is 14.05 [3]. - **Jimbobara Powder**: The latest price is 746, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 838.8, the forward price is 96.70, with a daily decrease of 1.15 and a weekly increase of 4.15. The import profit is 16.14 [3]. - **Mixed Powder**: The latest price is 720, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 13. The discounted futures price is 857.4, the forward price is 100.65, with a daily decrease of 1.20 and a weekly increase of 3.25. The import profit is -33.81 [3]. - **Ultra - Special Powder**: The latest price is 670, with a daily decrease of 6 and a weekly increase of 15. The discounted futures price is 889.8, the forward price is 94.90, with a daily decrease of 1.10 and a weekly increase of 3.05. The import profit is -32.06 [3]. - **Caribbean Powder**: The latest price is 951, with a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly increase of 41. The discounted futures price is 890.4, the forward price is 127.25, with a daily decrease of 1.20 and a weekly increase of 2.80. The import profit is 9.94 [3]. Brazil - **Brazilian Mixed Powder**: The latest price is 830, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 837.4, the forward price is 115.20, with a daily decrease of 1.05 and a weekly increase of 3.40. The import profit is -20.08 [3]. - **Brazilian Coarse IOC6**: The latest price is 753, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 832.0 [3]. - **Brazilian Coarse SSFG**: The latest price is 758, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20 [3]. Non - mainstream - **Ukrainian Concentrate**: The latest price is 890, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The discounted futures price is 978.0 [3]. - **61% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 735, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20 [3]. - **Karara Concentrate**: The latest price is 896, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The discounted futures price is 918.3 [3]. - **Roy Hill Powder**: The latest price is 780, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 858.5, the forward price is 100.70, with a daily decrease of 1.35 and a weekly increase of 3.20. The import profit is 33.83 [3]. - **KUMBA Powder**: The latest price is 852, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 20. The discounted futures price is 831.5 [3]. - **57% Indian Powder**: The latest price is 605, with a daily decrease of 6 and a weekly increase of 15 [3]. - **Atlas Powder**: The latest price is 715, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 13 [3]. Others - **PB Lump/Lump Premium**: The latest price is 905, with a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 22. The lump premium is 0.1685, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.002 [3]. - **Ukrainian Pellet/Pellet Premium**: The latest price is 890, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 23. The pellet premium is 17.55, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.10 [3]. - **Tangshan Iron Concentrate**: The latest price is 969, with a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly increase of 6. The discounted futures price is 856.0 [3]. Group 3: Futures Market Data Dalian Commodity Exchange - **i2701**: The latest price is 758.0, with a daily decrease of 7.0 and a weekly increase of 17.5. The monthly spread is 21.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is 27.6, with a daily increase of 7.0 and a weekly decrease of 42.8 [3]. - **i2605**: The latest price is 811.0, with a daily decrease of 5.5 and a weekly increase of 23.5. The monthly spread is -53.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is -25.4, with a daily increase of 5.5 and a weekly decrease of 48.8 [3]. - **i2609**: The latest price is 779.0, with a daily decrease of 6.5 and a weekly increase of 20.5. The monthly spread is 32.0, the basis/inside - outside spread is 6.6, with a daily increase of 6.5 and a weekly decrease of 45.8 [3]. Singapore Exchange - **FE01**: The latest price is 102.39, with a daily increase of 0.89 and a weekly increase of 2.55. The monthly spread is 2.00, the basis/inside - outside spread is -32.9, with a daily decrease of 0.4 and a weekly increase of 5.4 [3]. - **FE05**: The latest price is 107.45, with a daily increase of 1.27 and a weekly increase of 4.37. The monthly spread is -5.06, the basis/inside - outside spread is -20.8, with a daily decrease of 2.4 and a weekly decrease of 4.3 [3]. - **FE09**: The latest price is 104.39, with a daily increase of 0.96 and a weekly increase of 3.08. The monthly spread is 3.06, the basis/inside - outside spread is -28.0, with a daily increase of 0.5 and a weekly increase of 4.0 [3].
铁矿石:近强远弱,5-9正套继续持有
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 02:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and the 5 - 9 positive spread position should continue to be held [1] - Near - term factors such as the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, a significant increase in energy costs, and the possible restriction of BHP iron ore purchases drive the price rebound of near - term iron ore contracts, while the long - term impact is relatively small [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of futures decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%. The closing price of I2605 was 811.0 yuan/ton, with a yesterday's position of 455,521 hands and a position change of - 6,207 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 951.0 yuan/ton, PB (61.5%) decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 794.0 yuan/ton, Jimbour (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 746.0 yuan/ton, and Super Special (56.5%) decreased by 5.0 yuan/ton to 670.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 964.0 yuan/ton and 882.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special increased by 0.1 yuan/ton to 64.0 yuan/ton, and against Jimbour increased by 1.2 yuan/ton to 54.4 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 32.0 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 21.0 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás fines - PB increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 157.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jimbour remained unchanged at 48.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 124.0 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US - Iran conflict escalation and energy cost increase, along with potential restrictions on BHP iron ore purchases, drive the near - term iron ore contract price rebound, while the long - term impact is small [1] - In 2026, the government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [1] - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises is 221.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.39 million tons compared with the previous period [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the market [2]
铁矿石:近强远弱,5-9正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and a 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%. The I2605 contract had a closing price of 809.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 458,852 hands, a decrease of 12,644 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices such as PB (61.5%), Jinbuba (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) decreased, while domestic ore prices such as Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) increased [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special and Jinbuba decreased. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 2.5, while the spread of I2609 - I2701 remained unchanged. The spread between different ore types also had corresponding changes [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Market Trend**: Near - term, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, increased energy costs, and potential restrictions on BHP iron ore procurement drove the rebound of near - term iron ore contract prices, with less impact on the long - term [1] - **Government Policy**: The 2026 government work report focuses on stabilizing expectations, adjusting the structure, preventing risks, and promoting reforms. The GDP growth target is adjusted from "around 5%" to "4.5% - 5.0%", and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased [1] - **Steel Production**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 221.2 million tons, a decrease of 6.39 million tons compared with the previous period [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view on the market trend [2]