投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，矿石终端消耗如期回升，且假期钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，继续给予 矿价支撑，需注意的钢市矛盾在累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 需求韧性趋弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，重大事件临近，钢厂生产受限，矿石需求持续下行，且钢厂利润收缩， 利好效应趋弱。此外，国内港口到货如期回升，而海外矿商发运同样高位攀升，海外矿石供应偏高， 即便内矿生产受限，矿石供应稳中有升。目前来看，铁矿石需求走弱，而供应稳中有升，矿石基本面 有所走弱，叠加估值相对偏高，预计矿价将承压震荡走弱，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has resilience, and the supply is weaker than expected, resulting in a stable fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is warm, and the ore price continues to be strong. The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. However, due to the good profitability of steel mills, the high - frequency indicators remain at a relatively high level, and the demand has resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have slightly decreased, and domestic ore production is weakening, so the ore supply is weak. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore run stably, and the good profitability of steel mills and the resilient demand continue to support the ore price [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The demand is declining while the supply is expected to increase steadily. However, due to the good profit situation of steel mills, the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the oscillating adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. But the good profit situation of steel mills limits the decline of demand from its high level, providing support for the ore price. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased as expected, while the shipment from overseas miners has decreased. There is doubt about the continuous reduction under high ore prices. Domestic ore production is stabilizing, and the ore supply is expected to increase steadily. - Overall, the demand is continuously weakening and the supply is increasing steadily, but the good profitability of steel mills gives the ore price support, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the steel mill production restriction situation should be focused on [3].