投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 基本面改善有限，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，钢厂生产平稳，终端消耗维持高位，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库趋于尾声，需求利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货如期回 升，而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。总之，矿 石需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The supply - demand pattern is stable, but there is a weakening expectation for demand, and the valuation is moderately high with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and the high - level volatility of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - On the demand side, steel mills' production is stable, and ore demand is fair, providing support for ore prices. However, there are signs of production restrictions, and steel mills' profits are shrinking, weakening the positive effects. On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, but overseas miners' shipments remain high. The expected arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores are set to increase according to shipping schedules. Although domestic ore production is restricted, overall ore supply is stable. In summary, ore demand is okay but has a weakening expectation, supply is relatively stable, and the valuation is moderately high, resulting in limited upward driving force for ore prices [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/8/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 776.50 | -10.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 452,852 | -11978↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 20.5 | +1.00↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -5873 | -9565↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） | 2,000.00 | 0.00 | | | | | 新加坡铁矿石主力合约截止15：00报价(美元/吨) | 102.35 | -0.91↓ | | | | 现货市场 | 青岛港61.5%PB粉矿 (元/干吨) | 842 | -8↓ 青岛港60.8%麦克粉矿 (元/干吨) | 827 | -8↓ | | | 京唐港56.5%超特粉矿 (元/干吨) | 720 | -5↓ I 主力合约基差 (麦克粉干吨-主力合约) | 51 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures experienced a slight pullback, with current spot prices for PB powder at 770 CNY/ton and super special powder at 645 CNY/ton [1] Group 1: Market Prices - As of August 21, 2025, iron ore spot prices at various ports are as follows: Jiangyin Port at 748 CNY/ton, Caofeidian Port at 743 CNY/ton, Tianjin Port at 726 CNY/ton, and Qingdao Port at 743 CNY/ton [1] - The main iron ore futures contract closed at 772.5 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.98%, reaching a high of 780.0 CNY/ton and a low of 770.0 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Activity - On August 20, the total iron ore transaction volume at major national ports reached 1.19 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.48% [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in iron ore futures warehouse receipts by 500 contracts to 2,000 contracts compared to the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - According to Hualian Futures research, global iron ore shipments increased significantly by 3.599 million tons to 34.066 million tons, with port arrivals also rising by 947,000 tons to 24.766 million tons [4] - Daily average pig iron production increased by 3,400 tons to 2.4066 million tons, indicating strong resilience in demand, while port inventories have shown a slight increase [4] - Overall, the iron ore market fundamentals appear stable, with high pig iron production and resilient demand providing strong support for iron ore prices, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations within a range [4]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports. Core Views Steel Industry - Hot-rolled coil prices broke through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to try shorting the October hot-rolled coil contract at 3380 - 3400 [1]. - Currently, steel mill production remains at a high level. Seasonal decline in rebar demand in August has led to an increase in inventory, with production higher than apparent demand. After the previous price increase, funds are betting on a decline in demand in the second half of the year [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly on a week-on-week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover [3]. - Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the second half of the month, the molten iron output in August will decline slightly from the high level, with an average expected to be maintained at around 2.36 million tons per day. Steel mill inventory is increasing, and the restocking demand has weakened. It is recommended to short on rallies [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - For coke, due to tight supply and demand, downstream steel mills still have restocking demand. There is still an expectation of a seventh round of price increase for coke. The futures price of coke is at a premium to the spot price, providing a hedging opportunity. The cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn [5]. - For coking coal, the spot fundamentals have returned to stable operation. The previous futures price increase has already factored in the expectation of coal mine production restrictions. It is recommended to short on rallies for speculation and conduct a reverse spread trade for the 9 - 1 contract [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar widened to around 290 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of various steelmaking processes decreased, and the profits of different regions and varieties also declined [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output and the output of five major steel products increased slightly, while the rebar output decreased slightly. The output of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased significantly, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils increased slightly [1]. Transaction and Demand - The transaction volume of building materials and the apparent demand of five major steel products and rebar decreased, while the apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 01 contract increased. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports and the global weekly shipment volume increased significantly, and the monthly national import volume also increased [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills and the daily average port clearance volume increased slightly, while the monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased, and the number of available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and declined. The prices of some coking coal varieties in the spot market decreased, while the prices of coke increased after the sixth round of price increase and the seventh round of price increase was initiated [5]. Supply - The coke production increased slightly on a week-on-week basis, and the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly. The raw coal production decreased slightly, and the clean coal production increased slightly [5]. Demand - The molten iron output increased slightly, and the coke production increased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke remains resilient, but the restocking demand has weakened [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased, with the inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports all decreasing. The coking coal inventory decreased in coking plants and steel mills, increased slightly in ports, and the inventory in coal mines decreased at a slower pace [5].

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but the off - season demand has a low acceptance of high prices. The main contract is approaching the position transfer, and the price of the October contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to operate on the long side during the callback, and pay attention to the support levels of 3400 and 3200 yuan for the October contract of hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively. Be cautious about chasing long positions. [1] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. The prices of steel billets decreased, while the prices of slab remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions increased, and the profits of rebar in some regions also increased. [1] - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2%, the rebar output increased by 4.8% (with the electric - furnace output increasing by 15.4% and the converter output increasing by 3.3%), and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.7%, the rebar inventory increased by 1.9%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5%. The increase in social steel inventory in the past two weeks was mainly due to the positive arbitrage of spot - futures traders. [1] - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.2%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 3.6%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.3%. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The iron ore 09 contract showed a volatile trend. In the future, the iron water output in August will remain high, and the improvement of steel mill profits will support the raw materials. However, due to the weakening of steel apparent demand in the off - season, the previous trading logic has been overdrawn. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage operations. [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some iron ore varieties' warehouse receipt costs and spot prices changed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 12.5%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 61.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 2.3%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 5.0%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 0.5%. The monthly national import volume increased by 8.0%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%, the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 6.3%, the monthly national pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 3.9%. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.7%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.0%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 4.8%. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coke futures showed a trend of reaching the peak and then falling back, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The sixth round of price increase of coke has been officially implemented, and there may be further price increases in the future. However, due to factors such as over - drawn bullish expectations and exchange intervention, the current long - side logic has changed. It is recommended to take profit and wait and see for both speculative and arbitrage operations. For coking coal, similar to iron ore, it is also recommended to take profit and wait and see for single - side and arbitrage operations. [6] Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some coke and coking coal varieties and their spreads changed. The coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased. The overseas coal prices of some varieties also changed. [6] - **Supply**: The weekly coke output of the full - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.4%, and the weekly coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4%. The weekly raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1.1%, and the weekly clean coal output decreased by 1.1%. [6] - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2%. The demand for coke is related to the pig iron output. [6] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.94%, the coke inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 5.3%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the port coke inventory increased by 1.4%. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 5.7%, the coking coal inventory of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5%, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the port coking coal inventory decreased by 1.7%. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. The demand for iron ore has resilience, and the supply is weaker than expected, resulting in a stable fundamentals under the situation of weak supply and demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is volatile and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price runs strongly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is warm, and the ore price continues to be strong. The fundamentals of iron ore are stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. However, due to the good profitability of steel mills, the high - frequency indicators remain at a relatively high level, and the demand has resilience, which supports the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, the overseas miners' shipments have slightly decreased, and domestic ore production is weakening, so the ore supply is weak. The demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of ore run stably, and the good profitability of steel mills and the resilient demand continue to support the ore price [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.96%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The steel price was driven up by the resurgence of raw materials, but the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. The steel price remained prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needed to be tracked. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price showed a strong trend with a daily increase of 1.40%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, inventory increased and the growth rate expanded. However, the real - world contradictions were limited, and the strong upward movement of raw materials provided cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.36%, the shift of the main contract was completed, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the demand for iron ore was weakening, the supply recovery was lower than expected, the fundamentals were stable, and the good profit situation of steel mills provided support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Automobile Industry**: In July, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7% respectively. Among 18 car companies that announced their July production and sales data, more than 60% had a year - on - year increase in sales [6]. - **Real Estate Industry**: The total sales of 18 key real estate enterprises from January to July 2025 were 842.096 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. In July, the total sales were 95.316 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 41.4%. The total sales area from January to July was 42.6283 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 24.5%, and in July it was 5.4157 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 31.5% [7]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The Sydvaranger iron ore in Norway is accelerating its restart. It is expected to start production in 2026. The total resources of the iron ore are about 514 million tons, with an average iron grade of 33.05% and a magnetite iron grade of 28.58% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,340, 3,360 and 3,427 respectively, with price changes of 10, 20 and 19 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,510, 3,460 and 3,522 respectively, with price changes of 30, 20 and 22 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,120 with a change of 20, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 with no change. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 with a change of 20, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,200 with a change of 10 [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 788 with a change of 11, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 783 with a change of 10. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.58 and 24.95 respectively, with changes of 0.21 and 0.59 respectively. The SGX swap price (current month) was 102.60 with a change of 0.90, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 102.90 with a change of 1.40 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,258 | 0.96 | 3,269 | 3,235 | 1,141,600 | - 269,639 | 1,605,388 | - 7,237 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,484 | 1.40 | 3,495 | 3,454 | 488,547 | - 78,139 | 1,381,560 | 6,551 | | Iron Ore | - | 801.0 | 2.36 | 803.0 | 787.5 | 281,002 | 109,995 | 443,799 | 171,910 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report presents the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [16][18][21]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: The report shows the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][32][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand pattern continued to weaken, the inventory growth rate expanded. Although the output of hot - rolled coils decreased due to the maintenance of plate mills, the sustainability of production reduction was questionable, and the positive effect of supply contraction was not strong. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, and the weak demand put pressure on the price. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand increased. The production of rebar reached a high level this year, and demand improved, but the sustainability of the improvement was questionable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils continued to weaken, but cost support existed. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate higher, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply and demand pattern changed little. The consumption of steel mills decreased, but the profit situation was good, and the overall decline was not large. The supply of iron ore increased limitedly. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [39].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the game between long and short factors. The demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply is rising steadily. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides support for the iron ore price. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakly stable. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing. The positive factor is that the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand remains high, providing support for the ore price. However, production restrictions may cause impacts. - Domestic port ore arrivals are rising, while overseas miners' shipments are decreasing. The continuous reduction under high ore prices needs to be tracked. Domestic ore production continues to be weakly stable, and the ore supply is rising steadily. - Overall, with the weakening demand and rising supply, the fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore price is prone to pressure. But the good profitability of steel mills and the resilience of demand support the ore price, resulting in a high - level oscillating trend [2].