1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The supply disturbances support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the sustainability is not strong, and the demand growth space is limited. The fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that the bullish factors remain, leading to the high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills are actively producing, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously rising, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, limiting the growth space. The arrival at domestic ports is continuously rising, while the shipments of miners have declined due to hurricane disturbances, but port operations have resumed, with a relatively limited impact. The domestic ore supply is stable, and the ore supply continues to operate smoothly. The supply disturbances support the high - level operation of the ore price, but the sustainability is not strong, and the demand growth space is limited. The fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the high - valued ore price continues to face pressure. The trend is expected to maintain high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate. In the short term, the cost support and the medium - term expectation of loose supply will compete with each other. Attention should be paid to the results of the annual long - term contract negotiation. If the supply restrictions are lifted, the price may be under pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Inventory - Supply - side disturbances continue, which support the price in the short term. Port inventories have slightly decreased. The port inventory is 17814.18 tons, with a month - on - month decrease and a year - on - year increase, showing a neutral situation [1] Spot and Basis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 841 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 859 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40, showing a bullish situation [1] Demand and Downstream - Not provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of steel products should be monitored [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the bullish factors remain, and the ore price is at a high level [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Port inventories remain high. The resumption of production in steel mills has led to an increase in the terminal consumption of ore, with marginal improvement in demand. However, the contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, and the incremental space is limited, so the positive effect is not strong. - Although the arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined, the shipments from miners have increased again. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will remain stable. The active production of domestic mines has brought an increase in supply, and the overall supply of ore is increasing steadily. - Currently, the strong energy market has led to an increase in transportation costs, and the marginal improvement in demand supports the high - level operation of the ore price. But the demand incremental space is limited, and the supply is increasing steadily. The fundamentals of the ore market are weakly stable, and the upward driving force for the over - valued ore price is not strong [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of steel is expected to fluctuate strongly, but further increase requires support from the demand side; investors and operators should prepare for long - term market fluctuations and pay attention to the BHP event and the situation in the Middle East [7][8][29] - During the BHP negotiation period, the iron ore price has strong support, and it is expected to maintain a strong short - term trend. Monitor the BHP negotiation situation [9][10][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Variety Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy** - RB2605: Price is 3123, with an expected trend of fluctuating strongly, influenced by factors such as restrictions on BHP iron ore imports, inventory changes, and production and demand recovery of five major steel products [6] - HC2605: Price is 3297, with an expected trend of fluctuating strongly, as the low - level production will conflict with the spring demand recovery [6] - I2605: Price is 815.5, with an expected trend of strong operation, affected by factors such as the recovery of Australian and Brazilian shipments, the change in arrival volume, the increase in iron water production, and inventory changes [6] - **Arbitrage Strategy** - RB05 - 10, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM: Relevant information not fully provided [6] 3.2 Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price**: In the week of March 19, the prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market had small increases [11] - **Blast Furnace and Crude Steel Production**: In the week of March 20, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in China increased after reaching a new low since April 2024; the average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises in early March slightly decreased from the new high since mid - October last year [11] - **Iron Water Production and Electric Furnace Production**: In the week of March 20, the national average daily iron water production increased, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills continued to rise significantly for three weeks [16] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: In the week of March 20, the weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills increased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased [16] - **Social Inventory**: On March 20, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities decreased after reaching new highs [19] - **Downstream Demand**: From January to February this year, the national real estate development investment decreased year - on - year, the national automobile production decreased year - on - year, the national metal - cutting machine tool production increased year - on - year, and the production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines had different year - on - year changes [20] - **Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit**: In the week of March 20, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased for three consecutive weeks; in the week of March 13, the disk profit of the rebar 2605 contract showed an expanding loss for two consecutive weeks [24] - **Spot Rebar Gross Profit per Ton**: In the week of March 20, the loss of the long - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton continued to expand, and the loss of the short - process steel mill's spot rebar gross profit per ton (flat electricity) slightly narrowed [29] 3.2.2 Conclusion and Suggestion - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The news has a significant boost to the expected steel cost and price. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate strongly in the future, but further increase requires support from the demand side [29] - **Basis between Futures and Spot**: In the week of March 20, the rebar basis narrowed for four consecutive weeks, and it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 10 - 80 yuan/ton in the future; the hot - rolled coil basis turned to narrow, and it is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 60 - 0 yuan/ton in the future [33][36] 3.3 Iron Ore 3.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Price and Spread**: As of March 19, the 62% Platts iron ore index slightly decreased; as of March 20, the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port slightly decreased, and the spreads between different ore types changed [38] - **Inventory and Port Clearance Volume**: In the week of March 20, the iron ore inventory in 45 ports decreased, the average daily port clearance volume continued to increase, the inventory available days of steel mills' imported ore decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills increased [43] - **Shipment and Arrival**: In the week of March 13, the Australian iron ore shipment increased, the Brazilian shipment decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. It is expected that the arrival volume will first be low and then high in the near future [48] - **Domestic Ore Production and Operation**: From January to February 2026, the domestic iron ore production increased year - on - year, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises increased for three consecutive weeks [53] - **Port Trading Volume and Iron Water Cost**: As of March 19, the 5 - day moving average of the iron ore trading volume at major ports decreased; in the week of March 20, the average tax - free iron water cost of 64 sample steel mills remained unchanged [55] - **Average Daily Iron Water Production, Blast Furnace Start - up Rate and Capacity Utilization**: As of March 20, the average daily iron water production of 247 sample steel mills increased, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate and start - up rate increased, and the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises increased. It is expected that the iron water production will continue to recover [61] - **Output and Inventory of Five Major Steel Products**: In the week of March 20, the actual weekly output of five major steel products increased, the consumption increased, and the inventory decreased [63] - **Iron Ore Transportation Cost**: As of March 18, the main iron ore freight rates increased; as of March 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) increased [69] 3.3.2 Conclusion and Suggestion - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to maintain a strong trend. Monitor the BHP negotiation situation [74][75] - **Basis between Futures and Spot**: As of March 19, the basis between the spot price of iron ore in Qingdao Port (after removing the moisture effect) and the iron ore futures 2505 contract narrowed. It is expected that the iron ore basis will fluctuate and widen in the future, with a range of 40 - 100 yuan/ton [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply - side disturbances have pushed up the price of iron ore, but the port inventory has continued to increase and the molten iron output has reached a new stage - low, with prominent real - world supply - demand pressure. The expected resumption of production and restocking demand of steel mills support the price, but part of the supply - side news has been priced in. Without substantial improvement in demand, the price is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot and Basis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 837 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 847 yuan/ton, with a basis of 36. The basis situation is bullish [1]. 3.2 Supply and Inventory - The port inventory of iron ore is 17947.32 tons, showing a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, which is bearish [1]. 3.3 Demand and Downstream - The expected resumption of production and restocking demand of steel mills support the price, but in the absence of substantial improvement in demand, the price is expected to move in a volatile manner [1]. 3.4 Profit No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak - stable supply - demand pattern, and the ore price will fluctuate at a high level. The short - term and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 are oscillating and bullish, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and bullish, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is also oscillating and bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the weak - stable supply - demand pattern and high - level oscillation of ore prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, domestic port arrivals have declined, while miner shipments have increased again. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will be stable, and domestic ore supply continues to recover, so the ore supply remains stable. On the demand side, steel mill production is restricted, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. However, after the meeting ends, steel mills will gradually resume production, and ore demand will improve. But considering the poor profitability of steel mills, the incremental space is uncertain. Currently, due to the increase in transportation costs and concerns about spot liquidity, bullish factors support the ore price to run strongly. However, the fundamentals of the ore market have not been substantially improved under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will turn into high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2605 is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2] - The iron ore price is expected to shift to high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2605, the short - term view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating strongly. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and the ore price is oscillating at a high level. The calculation of the rise - fall range and the definitions of different market conditions are also provided [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed little. The terminal consumption of ore has significantly declined recently, mainly due to production restrictions during the meetings. The subsequent resumption of production by steel mills will improve ore demand, but the profit situation of steel mills is not good, so the incremental space is limited [3] - The arrival of goods at domestic ports has declined again, while the shipments from miners have increased. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of goods at ports will tend to be stable, and the domestic ore supply is recovering, so the ore supply is increasing steadily [3] - The previous bullish factors have supported the ore price to return to a high level, but the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved under the situation of stable supply and weak demand. The upward driving force is not sustainable, and the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly view on iron ore is that the near - term is strong while the long - term is weak, and the 5 - 9 positive spread is strengthening [3]. - The logic is that the near - term contract price of iron ore rebounds due to the escalation of the US - Iran conflict leading to a significant increase in energy costs and the possible restriction of more BHP iron ore purchases, while the long - term impact is relatively small [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Price Spreads - Last Friday, the spot price of PB powder was 797 (+33) yuan/ton, and the price of the 05 contract was 811.5 (+40) yuan/ton. The basis of the 05 contract was 20 (-3) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread was 34 (+8.5) yuan/ton [10]. - The price difference between high - grade and medium - grade ores, as well as the difference between lump and powder ores, is expanding [44]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Global iron ore shipments were 2897 million tons this week, a week - on - week decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. Australia's shipments were 1694 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. Brazil's shipments were 574 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.6% [4]. - The arrivals at 45 ports were 2609 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.6% and a year - on - year increase of 42.0% [4]. - Mainstream and non - mainstream ore supplies are both at high levels, and the supplies of the four major mines are at normal levels. Domestic mines have resumed production after the Spring Festival, and production has increased [17][23][35]. 3.3 Iron Ore Demand - The demand outlook is not optimistic. Steel mills' profits are at a low level, the resumption of hot metal production is weak, and the future steel demand is not expected to be good. Steel mills do not have excessive restocking actions [5]. - Steel mills mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The high - grade to medium - grade ore price spread and the lump - to - powder ore price spread are expanding. The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel is lower than that of hot metal [40][44][45]. 3.4 Iron Ore Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports is at a high level and continues to accumulate. In the context of weak demand expectations, it is expected that steel mills will purchase according to demand, and the inventory accumulation is concentrated in the trading sector. Australian ore inventory has increased significantly [47][49]. 3.5 Iron Ore Cost - Oil prices have risen, leading to an increase in freight rates, including BCI, BDI, West Australia - Qingdao, and Tubarao - Qingdao freight rates [51].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view for Iron Ore 2605 is to be moderately strong, the medium - term view is to fluctuate, and the intraday view is also moderately strong. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with short - term positive factors driving the ore price to run strongly [2]. - Although the iron ore price has risen recently due to rising transportation costs and structural contradictions in varieties, the supply is stable and demand is weak. The upward driving force's sustainability is questionable, and subsequent trends are cautiously optimistic. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2605, the short - term trend is moderately strong, the medium - term is fluctuating, and the intraday is moderately strong. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line support, and the core logic is that short - term positive factors are driving the ore price to run strongly [2]. Market Driving Logic - Changes have occurred in both the supply and demand sides of iron ore. Environmental protection restrictions have led to a decline in terminal ore consumption, and steel mills' profit conditions are poor. The steel market contradictions are accumulating, and the weak demand pattern will continue. At the same time, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, but miners' shipments have declined from a high level. According to shipping schedules, subsequent arrivals are expected to stabilize, and domestic mine production has recovered, so overall ore supply is increasing [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of iron ore 2605 is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is slightly bearish. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the outlook for ore prices is cautiously optimistic [2]. - Although short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to rise, the demand for iron ore is weak and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, the upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of the steel market [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is slightly bullish, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is slightly bearish. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the attitude towards ore prices is cautiously optimistic. The calculation of price fluctuations and the definitions of market trends are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore has declined again, and steel mills' profitability is poor, with steel market contradictions accumulating, so the ore demand is weak. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, while the shipments of miners have declined from a high level. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will stabilize, and domestic mine production is recovering, so the ore supply is increasing steadily [3].