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铁矿石早报-20260106
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:14
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint is presented in the given content; it mainly provides price data of various iron ore varieties and futures contracts. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Spot Market - **Australian mainstream ores**: Newman powder is priced at 798, down 7 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a discounted futures price of 854.2; PB powder is at 806, down 2 and up 9; Mac powder is at 808, down 2 and up 13; Jinbuba powder is at 759, down 2 and up 9; Mixed powder is at 742, up 2 and up 2; Super special powder is at 684, up 4 and up 9; Carajás powder is at 895, up 10 and up 20 [1]. - **Brazilian mainstream ores**: Brazilian mixed ore is at 852, down 6 and up 19; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is at 770, down 2 and up 9; Brazilian coarse SSFG is at 775, down 2 and up 9 [1]. - **Other ores**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is at 884, up 6 and up 11; 61% Indian powder is at 748, down 2 and up 9; Karara concentrate powder is at 885, up 3 and up 7; Roy Hill powder is at 793, down 2 and up 9; KUMBA powder is at 865, down 2 and up 9; 57% Indian powder is at 619, up 4 and up 9; Atlas powder is at 737, up 2 and up 2; Tangshan iron concentrate powder is at 976, down 6 and down 6 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 is at 814.5, up 9.5 from the previous day and up 13 for the week, with a monthly spread of -39.5; i2605 is at 797.0, up 7.5 and up 14, with a spread of 17.5; i2609 is at 775.0, up 6.5 and up 14, with a spread of 22.0 [1]. - **SGX contracts**: FE01 is at 105.55, up 0.20 and up 0.88, with a spread of -3.24; FE05 is at 104.26, up 0.24 and up 1.24, with a spread of 1.29; FE09 is at 102.31, up 0.26 and up 1.29, with a spread of 1.95 [1]. Other Data - **Import profit**: Newman powder's import profit is 14.42; Mac powder's is 49.11; Jinbuba powder's is 44.36; Mixed powder's is 5.63; Super special powder's is 1.34; Carajás powder's is -14.77; Brazilian mixed ore's is 14.89; Roy Hill powder's is 56.49 [1]. - **Premium data**: Information about U - ball/pellet premium and PB block/lump ore premium is presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical data is incomplete [1].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年12月30日)-20251230
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 03:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to trade in a high - level range, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, while the intraday trend is slightly weak. The core logic is that bullish factors remain, keeping the ore price at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising to high levels, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is at a low level. Although the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, the pre - holiday restocking expectation is relatively positive. Overall, the iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations, but the demand is weakening and supply remains high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the follow - up trend is cautiously optimistic, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weak, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that bullish factors remain and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. Port inventories are rising, steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is low, and steel mill profitability improvement is limited. Pre - holiday restocking expectation is positive. Domestic port arrivals have slightly declined, while miner shipments have reached a new weekly high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. The iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and restocking expectations, but the fundamentals are weakening and the upward driving force is not strong, with attention on steel mill restocking [2].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年12月26日)-20251226
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 01:35
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level volatile trend, with the 2605 contract showing a wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between long and short factors [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation", with the core logic of the game between long and short factors leading to high - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising at a high level, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is weakly stable. Steel mill profitability improvement is limited, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, but pre - holiday restocking is relatively positive. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at annual highs, with active overseas ore supply. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall ore supply remains high. The price is under pressure due to weakening demand and high supply, but there are still structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement [4]
铁矿石期货周报:补库预期支撑反弹,关注铁水下降空间-20251222
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly, with overall prices remaining range - bound. Future trading focuses on steel mills' restocking expectations and the downward space of hot metal production. The iron ore supply will have limited marginal increase, the hot metal production is at a historically low level, and the downward space is relatively limited. Iron ore will continue to accumulate inventory, but the marginal accumulation space will decrease. The future key factors are BHP negotiation, hot metal trend, and steel mills' restocking expectations. It is expected that the overall situation will remain range - bound, with the range reference of 730 - 820. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range, and short at around 800 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Spot Price - The spot prices of various types of iron ore powder increased this week. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 7 yuan/ton to 872 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines increased by 13 yuan/ton to 794 yuan/ton [7]. Variety Basis - The basis of the 05 contract for different types of iron ore powder is presented, such as the basis of Carajás fines, PB fines, and Super Special fines [16][18][21]. Spot and Forward Transactions - The MA5 data of iron ore port spot transactions and forward transactions are presented, along with the import profit data of PB fines and Mac fines [31][33][35]. Inter - monthly Spread - The spread data between different iron ore contracts (such as I01 - 05, I2205 - I2209) are presented, as well as the position data of the 09 and 05 contracts [38][39][41]. Supply Global Shipment - This period's global iron ore shipment continued to increase, with the increment concentrated in Australia and Brazil. The total shipment of Australia and Brazil was 2,965.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 tons. Vale had the most significant growth [3]. Four Major Mines Shipment - The shipment data of Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, and FMG to China are presented. For example, Vale's shipment increased by 204 tons week - on - week to 682 tons [56]. Australia and Brazil Freight - The freight data from Western Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao are presented. For example, the freight from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 10.4 dollars/ton [64]. Arrival Volume - The arrival volume of 45 ports and 47 ports increased this week. The arrival volume of 45 ports was 2,723 tons, a week - on - week increase of 243 tons [71]. Domestic Iron Ore Import - From January to October 2025, the total national iron ore import was 103,003 tons, a year - on - year increase of 804 tons. The import of Australian and Brazilian ore increased, while the import of non - mainstream ore decreased [84]. Domestic Concentrate Production and Sales - The iron concentrate production of 186 and 126 mining enterprises decreased this week. The production of 186 mining enterprises was 44.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons [95]. Demand Steel Enterprise Production Indicators - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel enterprises was 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99 percentage points [110]. Furnace Charge Ratio - The sinter ore ratio in the furnace was 73.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and the pellet ore ratio was 15.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points [127]. Global Steel and Pig Iron Production - The production data of global, Chinese, and other countries' steel and pig iron are presented, including India, Russia, Turkey, etc. The production and year - on - year changes are shown in the corresponding charts [128][131][133]. Inventory Port Inventory - As of December 19th, the inventory of 45 ports was 15,512.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.21 tons. The inventory of 45 ports and 47 ports and the inventory by cargo ownership are presented [3][157][160]. Steel Mill Inventory - The import ore inventory of steel mills decreased by 110.25 tons to 8,723.95 tons, and there was no obvious restocking behavior [3][165][166].
中钢协:铁矿石价格“虚火”再燃 行业各方需理性辨别
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-09 12:56
Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence between iron ore prices and supply-demand dynamics indicates that financial speculation and trade-related activities are irrational factors driving price increases, despite high port inventories [1][3]. Group 1: Iron Ore Price Trends - Iron ore prices have risen from $102.05 per ton on November 7 to $107.80 per ton on December 2, marking a 5.63% increase, while port inventories have accumulated to 159 million tons [1][3]. - The iron ore market is characterized by a loose supply-demand balance, with global shipments at historically high levels and daily iron output from 247 steel mills declining from 2.4564 million tons to 2.3468 million tons by the end of November [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The financial attributes of iron ore have significantly increased, with a growing trading atmosphere in the futures market since mid-November, reflected in rising total open interest and net positions among the top ten long and short positions [1][3]. - The long-short ratio among the top 20 positions has increased from 0.95 in early November to 1.07, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Speculative Behavior - Trade speculation has amplified price volatility, with the PB powder spot price premium rising from zero at the end of October to $1.20 per ton by November 24, driven primarily by traders [2][4]. - Traders with foreign backgrounds are leveraging their information and capital advantages to create a tense atmosphere in both spot and futures markets, leading to a significant divergence between spot prices and actual supply-demand conditions [2][4]. Group 4: Price Outlook - There is no basis for a sustained upward trend in iron ore prices, as the market has been in a range-bound phase since the fourth quarter due to ongoing supply-demand looseness [5]. - The current price increase is attributed to speculative activities rather than fundamental demand, with accumulating inventories and weak actual demand likely to exert downward pressure on prices [5].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年12月9日)-20251209
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-09 01:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain under pressure and run weakly, with the price outlook being weakly volatile. The core logic is that the demand continues to decline, and the supply remains at a high level [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are all volatile, with the intraday being weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, due to the continuous decline in demand putting pressure on the ore price [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, and the profit situation has not improved, so the weak demand pattern is hard to change, dragging down the ore price. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals are continuously falling, while overseas miners' shipments continue to rise. Both are still at relatively high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the supply pressure of iron ore has not receded. Overall, macro - level positives are not beyond expectations, the market operation returns to the industrial end, and the iron ore market fundamentals are weak, so the ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure and run weakly [3]
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年12月8日)-20251208
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 01:52
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be under pressure and decline in a volatile manner, with a weakening supply - demand pattern and the real - world logic taking the lead. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on iron ore 2605 are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively, with an overall view of "weakly volatile" [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "weakly volatile", with an overall view of "weakly volatile". The core logic is that the real - world pattern is weakening, putting pressure on the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. At the end of the year, steel mills' maintenance increases, terminal ore consumption declines, and steel mills' profitability has not improved, resulting in weak ore demand. Overseas miners' shipments have increased month - on - month, and both shipments and domestic port arrivals are at high levels within the year. Even though domestic ore supply has shrunk, overall iron ore supply remains high. The previous positive factors have pushed the ore price back to a high level, but now the demand is weakening while supply remains high, so the ore price is expected to decline under pressure [3]
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251202
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with its fundamentals being weakly stable and the price fluctuating at a high level. The market sentiment is warm, and the previous positive factors still support the price. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening while the supply remains high, so the upward driving force is questionable, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the price is fluctuating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is warm, and the iron ore price fluctuates upward. The supply - demand pattern has little change. The terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the profitability of steel mills is poor, so the demand remains weak, which suppresses the price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, while the overseas miners' shipments have increased month - on - month. Both are at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active, while the domestic ore supply is stable, so the overall supply remains high. The market sentiment and previous positive factors support the price, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force is questionable. The price is expected to remain in a high - level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20251201
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 04:50
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Steel**: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年11月26日)-20251126
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market remains in a state of high - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of "oscillation" or "oscillation on the weak side". The fundamental situation has not improved, and the upward driving force is weak [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production has stabilized, terminal ore consumption has weakened, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable, resulting in high - level supply. Although the ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, the fundamentals have not improved [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and the upward driving force is weak [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is weakening, and subsequent demand will continue to be weak. Domestic port arrivals have rebounded significantly, overseas miners' shipments, though slightly decreased, are still at a high level this year, and domestic ore supply is stable. The ore price has shown a relatively strong trend due to the switching of arbitrage logic and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties, but the fundamentals have not improved, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].