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昊华能源(601101):业绩符合预期,煤炭业务盈利环比明显改善
Minsheng Securities· 2025-10-27 23:34
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2025 met expectations, with significant improvement in coal business profitability on a quarter-over-quarter basis [1]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit year-over-year, with total revenue of 6.307 billion yuan, down 7.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 554 million yuan, down 50.5% [1]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in Q4 2025 due to the seasonal increase in coal demand [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.912 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.4% quarter-over-quarter but an increase of 2.9% year-over-year. Net profit was 106 million yuan, down 59.3% quarter-over-quarter and 38.3% year-over-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, coal production and sales were 13.96 million tons and 13.95 million tons, respectively, both down approximately 0.6% year-over-year [2]. Coal Business - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2025 was 268.8 yuan per ton, down 36.4% quarter-over-quarter and 19.8% year-over-year. The cost per ton was 143.8 yuan, down 35.1% quarter-over-quarter and 35.6% year-over-year, leading to a coal business gross margin of 46.5%, which improved by 13.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2]. Methanol Business - Methanol production and sales in the first three quarters of 2025 were 388,000 tons and 381,000 tons, respectively, showing increases of 16.7% and 24.5% year-over-year. The gross margin for methanol business improved to 12.6% in Q3 2025, recovering from a loss [3]. Railway Business - The railway business saw a decrease in transport volume in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 65.8%, down 5.3 percentage points quarter-over-quarter due to lower transport prices and increased costs [4]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 654 million yuan, 937 million yuan, and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.45 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan per share [5][10].