Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump announced a 50% import tariff on copper, effective August 1, 2025. The tariff is expected to cover copper base products and derivatives. The COMEX - LME copper price spread is likely to widen further, but the final spread ratio may be less than 50% due to the large - scale pre - import of copper by the US since March. Before August 1, copper will continue to flow into the US, and after August, US copper import demand is expected to decrease significantly, increasing the copper supply in non - US markets [3][38]. - Currently, the copper mine supply remains tight, but the long - term tightness is slightly weaker than expected. The scrap copper supply is tight, strongly supporting prices, but this support may weaken if China's imports increase after the US tariff takes effect. The short - term supply of refined copper remains high, while demand faces pressure as the downstream enters the off - season and new photovoltaic and wind power installations peak [3][38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US Plan to Impose a 50% Import Tariff on Copper - On February 26, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to initiate a 232 investigation on copper. On July 8, he publicly threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, and on July 10, he officially announced the 50% tariff on copper, effective August 1, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of the US Copper Tariff - **Tariff Scope**: It is expected that copper base products and derivatives such as cables, electrical equipment, and home appliances may be subject to the tariff. However, due to the relatively small proportion of raw materials in home appliances (e.g., copper cost accounts for about 20% of air - conditioners), the impact on home appliances is smaller than that on copper base products [6]. - **Regional Price Spread**: Before the 50% tariff announcement, the COMEX - LME copper spread mostly fluctuated between 700 - 1500 dollars/ton, indicating a market - expected US copper tariff of 10 - 20%. After the 50% tariff news, the spread widened to about 2560 dollars/ton on July 9, equivalent to about 26.5% of the LME copper price. Although the spread has not fully reflected the 50% tariff, it is likely to widen further, but the final spread ratio may be less than 50% due to pre - imports [7]. - **Impact on Copper Flows**: Since the 232 investigation in late February, copper has flowed into the US, tightening the non - US supply. Before August 1, copper that can reach the US will continue to flow in, with a higher probability of copper from the Americas. After August, US copper import demand is expected to decrease, increasing the non - US copper supply [12][13]. 3.3 Current Situation of the Copper Market Fundamentals - **Copper Mines**: In May, Chile's copper production was at a multi - year high, and Peru's production in April decreased seasonally. The global copper mine supply growth rate is expected to be further adjusted downwards due to a production guidance cut by Ivanhoe Mines. The copper concentrate TC has been weakening, and the semi - annual long - term TC of 0 dollars/ton indicates long - term supply tightness, but less than expected [19]. - **Scrap Copper**: Since June, the domestic refined - scrap copper spread has widened, and the substitution advantage of scrap copper has increased. The supply of domestic scrap copper has been relatively tight since early July, strongly supporting copper prices. However, this support may weaken if China's imports increase after the US tariff takes effect [22][26]. - **Refined Copper**: In June, domestic refined copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased by over 10% year - on - year. It is expected to rise in July - August. Overseas production is expected to remain low in the short term. In June, domestic apparent consumption increased rapidly year - on - year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand for clean energy - related copper is expected to weaken [28].