Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is neutral, with an expected price fluctuation range of 81,600 yuan/ton to 86,600 yuan/ton this week. The recommendation for arbitrage is to hold off, and for options, it is to short put [6]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees at the LME conference, a potential TC price rebound may pressure copper prices. So, a neutral view is taken on copper prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On October 22, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract was 85,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 85,420 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from the previous trading day. The overnight closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decrease from the afternoon closing price [1]. - **Spot Market**: On the morning of the previous day, spot copper sellers lowered their premium quotes. Mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and some brands dropped to 320 - 340 yuan/ton. The procurement and sales sentiment indices increased. Sellers were eager to sell to lock in profits [2]. Important Information Summary - **US Government Situation**: The US government shutdown has lasted 22 days, and it may continue until November and exceed the 35 - day record. As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars [3]. - **Mine End**: Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines approved the Tía María copper mine project of Southern Copper. The project is 25% complete and is expected to start production in late 2026 or early 2027, with an annual output of 120,000 tons of copper [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: In September 2025, China's copper scrap imports were 184,100 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 1.699 million tons, a 1.4% increase. In October, imports may decline, and the pressure to increase imports in the fourth quarter is high [4]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, China's exports of unforged copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. Last week, the operating rates of refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded but were still below pre - holiday levels and significantly lower than the same period last year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and downstream companies were still hesitant [5]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 136,850 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [5]. Price and Basis Data - **Spot (Premium and Discount)**: For SMM's 1 copper, the premium was 30 on October 23, 2025, compared to 50 on October 22, 90 on October 16, and 60 on September 23. Different types of copper (premium, flat, and wet - process) and other indicators also showed corresponding changes [25][27]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 136,850 tons on October 23, SHFE inventory was 110,240 tons, and COMEX inventory was 313,817 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts were 36,553 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.15% [28]. - **Arbitrage and Other Indicators**: There were changes in indicators such as CU2601 - CU2511, CU2512 - CU2511, CU12/AL12, CU12/ZN12, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) [29].