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坏消息只“坏了一半” 铜价过山车调头向下
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 23:11
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products by the U.S. government has led to a significant drop in copper prices, with COMEX copper futures plummeting by 21% to a low of $4.33 per pound, triggering a mass exit of bullish investors from the market [1][2][3]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products starting August 1, while refined copper and scrap copper are exempt from this tariff, leading to a sharp decline in copper prices as market expectations shifted [2][3]. - The new tariff structure contrasts sharply with previous expectations of a blanket tariff on all copper products, resulting in a rapid liquidation of accumulated copper inventories in the U.S. [3][4]. Market Dynamics - Following the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper inventory surged to 250,000 tons, up from less than 100,000 tons in February, indicating a significant shift in supply dynamics [7]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory has decreased by over 64% since mid-February, highlighting contrasting trends in global copper supply [7]. Price Fluctuations - The price of COMEX copper futures saw a year-to-date increase of over 40% before the tariff announcement, which has since narrowed to 8.87% as of July 31 [8]. - The volatility in copper prices is expected to continue, with potential downward pressure due to excess inventory and changing market conditions [12]. Supply Chain Disruption - The U.S. tariff policy is anticipated to disrupt global copper supply chains, with potential shifts in sourcing strategies for industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and renewable energy sectors [9]. - Major copper-exporting countries like Chile may redirect their supplies towards Asian and European markets, further affecting global copper supply and demand balance [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the U.S. copper import volume could reach 1.36 million tons this year, significantly higher than last year's 900,000 tons, which may lead to an oversupply situation in the market [8]. - The long-term implications of the tariff on U.S. domestic copper demand and pricing strategies remain uncertain, as companies may seek to adjust their supply chains in response to the new tariff structure [10].
纽铜暴跌20%!特朗普做空铜?对进口半成品铜等征50%关税,但原矿不征税
美股IPO· 2025-07-31 04:47
特朗普宣布对铜产品征收50%的关税,但不包括最主要的原材料精炼铜等。周三,美国Comex铜期货价格暴跌,创下历史最大单日跌幅。在美东时 间周三下午之前,美国铜价一直比伦敦金属交易所(LME)的基准铜期货高出约28%,市场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税。 根据美国《1962年贸易扩展法》第232条款,美国总统有权出于"国家安全"考虑,采取对进口产品征收关税或设定配额等措施。 特朗普政府表示,这些新关税是继此前已对钢铁和铝征收关税之后的又一举措,旨在提振美国本国产业,并解决"贸易不平衡"问题。 当地时间周三,美国总统特朗普宣布对铜产品征收50%的关税,但不包括原材料精炼铜,纽约铜价在数分钟内暴跌约20%。 美国Comex铜期货价格暴跌,创下历史最大单日跌幅。在周三下午之前,美国铜价一直比伦敦金属交易所(LME)的基准铜期货高出约28%,市 场原本预期所有精炼金属进口都将被征税。 此外,美国铜生产商自由港迈克墨伦公司(Freeport-McMoRan Inc.)股价下跌约10%,Southern Copper公司股价跌超6%。最新公告削弱了美 国铜价的溢价。 而对主要向美国出口精炼铜的公司——如智利国有铜业公司 ...