机构：中金公司 研究员：吴昇勇/王嘉钰/侯利维 4Q25 业绩符合我们预期 1）4Q25 集团日均固定运营成本约为370 万港元，得益于应用IT 升级后，成功实现成本端管控。 2）管理层强调不会支付商标版权费用，因为所有商标及品牌、名称均归本公司实体所有，利益完全一 致。 3）公司注意到，除了来自中国的核心客户外，来自亚洲其他地区的客户数量有所增长，这主要得益于 公司在东京、首尔、曼谷和新加坡开设的销售办事处。 4）管理层希望，四期项目可以额外获批新博彩桌，鉴于四期被设计为涵盖丰富非博彩项目的整体度假 性质的综合度假村。我们预计，四期将与三期相辅相成，进一步带动银河国际会议中心和银河综艺馆的 放量。 5）我们认为公司或将致力于通过产品质量进行市场竞争，公司预计将维持当前的再投资率水平。 6）得益于2026 年春节假期长达9 天，公司预计节后长尾需求强劲。 7）管理层宣布派发末期股息0.80 港元/股，对应2H25 派息率为65%（对比2019 年为30%）。 盈利预测与估值 银河娱乐公布4Q25 业绩：公司收入为138.33 亿港元，同比增长22%，环比增长14%，恢复至4Q19 的 107%；经调整EBIT ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xingsheng International initiates coverage on Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the effectiveness of the company's mid-to-high-end strategy and its potential for growth through new developments and market share increases [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's net income reached HKD 12.2 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1% [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was HKD 3.3 billion, up 14% year-on-year but down 6% quarter-on-quarter, with an overall adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has outpaced the industry average, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2] Group 2: Dividend Policy - For H1 2025, the company declared a dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, which represents 58% of the earnings per share (EPS) for the period, indicating a robust and generous dividend policy [3] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5% [3] Group 3: Betting and Win Rates - In Q3 2025, the company's betting amounts for VIP, mass market, and slot machines were HKD 65 billion, HKD 35.4 billion, and HKD 27.4 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 46%, 12%, and 3% respectively [4] - The overall win rate improved due to the adoption of smart tables and innovative gameplay, contributing to the growth of Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) [4] Group 4: Market Share - The company's GGR for Q3 2025 was HKD 20.95 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, which is higher than the industry average growth of 12.5% [5] - The company's market share for Q3 2025 was calculated at 19.6%, with a cumulative market share of 19.4% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase [5]