2025.12. 11 本文字数：1486，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 朱洁树 《崩盘：小冰期与大明王朝的衰落》 [加] 卜正民 著 陈佳臻 译 后浪/汉青堂·九州出版社 2025年7月 加拿大汉学家卜正民是海外明清史研究的代表人物，对全球史情有独钟，也是一个讲故事的高手。他 曾写过《维米尔的帽子：17世纪和全球化世界的黎明》，借维米尔等画家笔下的海獭皮帽、青花瓷 等物品，串联起17世纪全球贸易网络。 在《崩盘：小冰期与大明王朝的衰落》中，卜正民从价格史入手，将明代及清初连续三百年的历史纳 入自然史和全球史的框架中进行考察。他发现，明朝后期出现的历次危机，几乎都与气候变化以及由 其引起的物价上涨相关。 约14世纪，北半球的气候开始转寒，在17世纪达到顶点，这段时期被称为"小冰期"。在这三个世纪 内，间歇性的干冷以及17世纪40年代左右的持续性干冷摧毁了明朝的农业根基，使其从永乐年间的 局部性饥荒滑向崇祯朝全国性的粮食体系崩溃。尤其是在华北地区，持续的干旱导致粮食价格高企， 北方粮价达到南方的十倍以上，远远超出人们所能承受的上限，最终导致明代价格体系完全崩溃，随 之而来的就是大明王朝的崩溃。 白银问 ...

加拿大汉学家卜正民是海外明清史研究的代表人物，对全球史情有独钟，也是一个讲故事的高手。他曾 写过《维米尔的帽子：17世纪和全球化世界的黎明》，借维米尔等画家笔下的海獭皮帽、青花瓷等物 品，串联起17世纪全球贸易网络。 在《崩盘：小冰期与大明王朝的衰落》中，卜正民从价格史入手，将明代及清初连续三百年的历史纳入 自然史和全球史的框架中进行考察。他发现，明朝后期出现的历次危机，几乎都与气候变化以及由其引 起的物价上涨相关。 约14世纪，北半球的气候开始转寒，在17世纪达到顶点，这段时期被称为"小冰期"。在这三个世纪内， 间歇性的干冷以及17世纪40年代左右的持续性干冷摧毁了明朝的农业根基，使其从永乐年间的局部性饥 荒滑向崇祯朝全国性的粮食体系崩溃。尤其是在华北地区，持续的干旱导致粮食价格高企，北方粮价达 到南方的十倍以上，远远超出人们所能承受的上限，最终导致明代价格体系完全崩溃，随之而来的就是 大明王朝的崩溃。 白银问题是近三十年全球史及明史研究的重点，有学者认为，明朝因白银大量流入而扩大了货币供应并 引起价格上涨。卜正民并不认同这种观点，他认为明朝巨大的经济体量，以及政府购买的特殊限制，使 有限流入的白银不足以引 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategic Direction - The company is focused on developing its aviation power business and has established a comprehensive layout in the aviation power sector, including piston, hybrid, and turbine power systems [3]. - The company has successfully built two major product systems in the new energy sector: electric drive systems and energy storage, covering various applications such as portable storage and hydrogen energy systems [3]. - The establishment of Chongqing Chenyu Technology Co., Ltd. aims to deepen the company's layout in the aviation power business and enhance its market influence [5]. Group 2: IPO and Financing Plans - The subsidiary Zongshen Aviation has terminated its IPO due to strategic development needs and changes in the capital market environment [2]. - The company plans to continue consolidating and expanding its business in the aviation power sector while seizing opportunities in the low-altitude economy [2]. - There are no disclosed plans for future IPOs or financing arrangements for Zongshen Aviation at this time [14]. Group 3: Market Performance and Investor Relations - The company has maintained a focus on its core business, aiming for steady growth and economic efficiency, while enhancing shareholder returns through high cash dividends [4]. - The company acknowledges the impact of macroeconomic factors, industry policies, and market sentiment on stock price fluctuations [11]. - The company is committed to improving information disclosure and engaging with institutional investors to enhance understanding of its operations [4]. Group 4: Product Development and Innovation - The company has launched a smart lawn mower product and plans to further develop its product layout based on market demand [9]. - The company is actively pursuing high-end, intelligent, and electric product transformations in its robotics sector [8]. - The company has made significant advancements in its industrial robotics sector, with a focus on automation and efficiency improvements [9]. Group 5: Future Growth and Market Strategy - The company aims to create a second growth curve through increased investment in new energy and aviation power sectors [3]. - The company is focused on enhancing its core competitiveness and market influence in the aviation power field [5]. - The company is exploring opportunities in the low-altitude economy and is committed to adapting to the evolving market landscape [2].