证券研究报告 | 2025 年 05 月 19 日 风险提示：地缘冲突超预期，海外通胀持续性超预期，流动性收紧超预期。 《金工|量化择时周报：等待缩量》 1、择时体系信号显示，均线距离-1.33%，距离绝对值小于 3%，市场继续 处于震荡格局。市场处于震荡格局，核心观测是市场风险偏好的变化。宏 观方面，短期进入宏观事件的真空阶段，前期的利好均得到兑现；技术指 标上，短期成交金额持续缩小，显示增量资金入场有限。2、综合来看， 短期市场在利好兑现和成交萎缩的压制下，风险偏好较难快速提升，预计 成交或将继续下行，等待地量信号，预计成交缩量至 9000 亿附近有望迎 来反弹。我们的行业配置模型显示，中期角度行业配置继续推荐困境反转 型板块，推荐恒生医疗以及港股汽车以及新消费行业；TWOBETA 模型继 续推荐科技板块，关注信创和通信。同时，目前仍在延续上行趋势走势的 银行依旧值得关注。当前以 wind 全 A 为股票配置主体的绝对收益产品建 议仓位至 50%。 风险提示：市场环境变动风险，模型基于历史数据。 晨会集萃 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《策略|宽信用与弱预期的裂口》 1、国内：4 月国内社融脉冲持续回升。4 ...

Group 1: Production Capacity and Utilization - The company has a casting capacity of 150,000 tons, but can currently release 80,000 to 100,000 tons due to various factors affecting production [1] - The effective casting capacity is expected to double this year, achieving 80,000 to 100,000 tons compared to 30,000 to 40,000 tons in 2024 [2] - The production release rate for new projects is approximately 50%-60% in the first year and 70%-80% in the second year [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The global offshore wind power installed capacity is projected to grow from 8 GW in 2024 to 16 GW in 2025, representing a 100% increase [1] - The company is diversifying its product offerings in the wind power sector, including both forged and cast components [3] - The market for casting products is expected to stabilize due to a self-regulatory agreement among wind power companies to reduce price competition [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Orders - The company’s overseas orders have remained stable compared to last year, with an increase in offshore casting orders [4] - The company has invested in a subsidiary for bearing production, with expected product output by the end of 2025 [4] - The company’s market share in the casting spindle sector is increasing due to the rapid development of offshore wind power [5]