长期存款

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存款利率下降,利好股市么?|投资小知识
银行螺丝钉· 2025-09-05 14:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of declining interest rates on deposits and the potential flow of funds into the stock market as high-yield deposits mature in the coming years [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - From 2022 to 2024, the RMB is entering a declining interest rate cycle, with bond and deposit rates continuously decreasing [2]. - By 2024, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.6%, with deposit yields also falling to low levels [2]. Group 2: Maturing Deposits - A significant amount of high-yield deposits, amounting to tens of trillions, will mature between 2025 and 2026 [3]. Group 3: Fund Flow into Stock Market - It is unlikely that all maturing deposit funds will flow into the stock market due to the low-risk preference of depositors [5]. - Based on the risk profile, approximately 2.5 to 5 trillion RMB of the maturing deposits may flow into the equity market, while the majority will remain in stable assets like deposits or government bonds [5]. - This potential inflow is significant compared to the total A-share market size of 100 trillion RMB, as it could match the scale of domestic index funds developed over 20 years [5].