最近，有不少人频繁拿马云的"预言"作为噱头，编造出"马云对2026年，手中有存款的人，将面临3大现实"的预言。而经过我们的仔细查证，基本可以判定 这是虚假信息。马云近期并没有发表此类讲话。不过，我们先抛开马云的预言不谈，单从当前投资环境、存款市场形势来分析，明年手中有存款人，或将要 面临的3大现实。 现实一：躺在存款上吃利息已经不可能了 众所周知，马云不仅是电商领域的大佬，也是国内最具影响力的公众人物之一。这主要是马云曾经发表过一些关于金融、房地产、电商等领域的趋势预测。 刚开始时，很多人都没把他的话当回事。而事后却都证实他的确实具有预见性。所以，马云每次对趋势预测的讲话，都被不少人视为投资的方向和参考。 随着存款利息收入越来越少，工作越来越难找。于是，很多人就把家里的存款拿出来用于投资创业，但绝大多数创业者都是以失败而告终。这里面主要有两 方面的原因：一个是，现在国内居民收入增长放缓，消费需求萎缩，导致企业大量商品滞销，资金无法及时回笼，就难以生存下去。另一个是，现在传统行 业都已经严重过剩了，作为新人在没有经验、没有资源、没有品牌的情况下，是很难与具有丰富从业经验的同行展开竞争的。 现如今，只要你手里有一 ...

近些年，我国居民存钱的热情越来越高涨。数据显示，2025年1月至10月，人民币住户存款累计增加11.39万亿元。而老百姓之所以爱存钱，主要是为了应对 失业、疾病、子女教育、养老等未来可能发生的各类支出。与此同时，现在投资环境也不好，盲目投资股票、基金、银行理财等高收益品种的风险都很大， 弄不好会亏掉本金，那还不如把钱存在银行里面，至少本金和利息是有保障的。 在很多人看来，把钱存到银行是最安全的。但实际上，银行也有倒闭的可能性。之前就有包商银行、辽阳农商行、辽宁太子河村镇银行等宣布倒闭。而未来 还会有更多的中小银行发生倒闭的情况。为此，储户应该提前了解，并采取相应的措施。而导致中小银行出现倒闭的原因主要有以下三个： 导致现在银行存款出现趋势性下降的原因有三个：①央行希望通过降低存款利率，引导储户把存款拿出来用于投资和消费。这样有利于促进经济增长；②存 款利率下调，贷款利率就有了下降的空间，这样可以刺激企业投资和购房贷款需求。③通过下调存款利率，可以拉开存贷利差，这样不仅银行的业绩能够提 升，而且抵御系统性金融风险的能力也能增强。 再者，拥有50万以上存款的储户，可以购买大额存单。通常大额存单的利率要比定期存款更 ...

起存门槛提高到100万，本质上是在变相赶走"穷人"。 12月2号，工行推出了新的三年期大额存单，起存门槛100万，年利率1.55%。是的，你没看错，是100万，不是10万。现在大多数银行三年期大额存单门槛 还是20万元，工行相当于是将门槛提高了5倍。 前几天，六大行就已经下架了五年期大额存单，现在工行又把三年期大额存单门槛提高到100万元，这到底要干什么？很多人没看懂工行的操作，我和大家 说说这里面的逻辑。 过去几年，银行的存款利率一直在降。三年期定存利率下降到了1.25%，而三年期大额存单利率下降至1.55%。 | | 项目 | 年利率(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、活期存款 | | 0.05 | | 1. 整存整取 | | | | | 三个月 | 0.65 | | | 六个月 | 0.85 | | | 一年 | 0.95 | | | 二年 | 1.05 | | | 三年 | 1.25 | | 二、定期存款 | 五年 | 1.30 | | | 2. 零存整取、整存零取、存本取息 | | | | 一年 | 0.65 | | | 三年 | 0.85 | | | 五年 | 0.85 | ...

近年来，国内存款市场出现了一个奇怪的现象：一边是银行存款利率是越来越低。之前3年定期存款利率是3.05%，现在已经降至1.55%。存款利率跌幅近 50%。而另一边却是老百姓存款热情越来越高涨，数据显示：2025年1-10月人民币存款新增23.32万亿元，其中住户存款新增11.39万亿元，占全部新增存款 的48.8%。显然，住户存款仍是新增存款的主力军。 实际上，出现上述奇怪现象的主要原因是，央行希望通过降息的方式，来迫使储户把钱拿出来用于投资和消费，这样可以刺激经济的稳步增长。但老百姓存 钱主要是为了应对失业、疾病等突发事情。所以，即使利率再降，储户们存钱的热情也难以扑灭。而面对当前存款市场的形势，有银行内部人员透露：从12 月开始，手握"50万存款的人"，请做好以下这3个准备。让我们一起来了解一下： 现在很多储户都喜欢把所有的资金都购买3年或5年的定期存款，这样可以获得较高的存款利率。但在现实生活中，很多人在追求中长期存款利率时，却忽略 了流动性问题。万一储户中途急需用钱，要动用3年或5年的存款，那都要算活期存款利率。即使储户购买了大额存单，大额存单具有可转让功能，但存款利 息的损失也是在所难免。 如果储户 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across different asset classes, including both RMB and foreign currency assets, as well as stocks and bonds [2] - It introduces a free course that systematically covers investment knowledge related to US dollar bond funds, indicating a growing interest in this area among investors [2] - The article highlights the rapid growth of "fixed income +" products in recent years, driven by declining deposit rates and increasing investor attention [7] Group 2 - "Fixed income +" funds typically add a small amount of stocks or convertible bonds to a pure bond base, leveraging the negative correlation between stocks and bonds to achieve stable returns while reducing volatility risk [5] - Traditional "fixed income +" products include primary bond funds, secondary bond funds, and mixed bond funds, with secondary bond funds and mixed bond funds being the most classic types [5] - The broader category of "fixed income +" also encompasses hedge funds and all-weather strategy funds, which may not hold a high proportion of bonds but use strategies to control volatility risk [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining interest rates on bank deposits and the increasing risks associated with investments and entrepreneurship, debunking a false prediction attributed to Jack Ma regarding the financial situation for depositors after December. Group 1: Bank Deposit Trends - Current interest rates for 3-year deposits have decreased from 3.05% to 1.55%, resulting in an annual interest loss of 1500 yuan for a deposit of 100,000 yuan [3][5] - Many depositors are withdrawing their savings to invest in higher-yielding options due to dissatisfaction with low deposit interest rates [5][10] Group 2: Investment Risks - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with average national housing prices dropping over 30% since 2022, leading to increased investment risks in property [5][10] - In the stock market, approximately 81% of retail investors reported losses, with an average loss of about 21,000 yuan, indicating that investing in stocks may be riskier than keeping money in the bank [7][9] - Public funds are also experiencing losses of 20-30%, raising concerns about the reliability of fund managers in poor market conditions [7][9] - Low-risk bank wealth management products are increasingly showing losses due to declining money market yields and rising bond market risks, making them less secure for investors [9] Group 3: Entrepreneurship Challenges - Many individuals are using their savings to start businesses, but the failure rate is high, with common reasons including slow income growth, intense competition, and rising operational costs [10][12] - The article highlights a case where an individual lost significant savings and incurred debt due to a failed restaurant venture, illustrating the risks of entrepreneurship in the current economic climate [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic residents are increasingly inclined to save money, with a record increase of 10.77 trillion yuan in deposits in the first half of 2025, driven by concerns over unemployment and future expenses [1] - The decline in deposit interest rates is a significant trend, with the one-year deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.35%, resulting in a decrease of 4,500 yuan in annual interest income for a deposit of 500,000 yuan [5] - The phenomenon of inverted deposit rates is observed, where the three-year deposit rate is higher than the five-year rate, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [8] Group 2 - The number of bank bankruptcies and dissolutions is increasing, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024, raising concerns about the safety of deposits [10] - To mitigate risks associated with bank deposits, it is recommended to lock in interest rates by purchasing large-denomination certificates of deposit, which offer higher rates and transferability [11] - It is crucial for depositors to check if their bank has a "deposit insurance mark," as over 4,000 out of 4,600 banks in China participate in deposit insurance, ensuring full compensation for deposits up to 500,000 yuan in case of bank failure [14]

Core Viewpoint - Jack Ma's past predictions, such as the decline in housing prices, have proven accurate, influencing public perception and investment decisions. Current discussions about his predictions for savings in 2025 lack credible sources and should be approached with caution [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - Starting in 2024, major state-owned banks are accelerating interest rate adjustments, with the one-year deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.35%, resulting in a decrease of 900 yuan in interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit [5]. - The purchasing power of savings is declining as inflation outpaces interest income, with essential goods seeing price increases, leading to a situation where deposit income cannot keep up with inflation [6][8]. Group 2: Investment Risks - Many depositors are turning to high-yield investments like stocks and funds due to decreasing interest rates, but these come with significant risks. The probability of making a profit in the stock market is low, with many investors facing losses [10]. - The performance of public funds has been poor, with many experiencing losses between 20-30% last year, and the risk associated with bank wealth management products is also rising due to declining market yields and increasing bond market risks [10]. Group 3: Entrepreneurship Challenges - Individuals withdrawing savings to start businesses face low success rates due to economic downturns, rising operational costs, and intense competition, leading to a high likelihood of failure [12]. - The impact of e-commerce on traditional retail has further diminished market share for physical stores, making it difficult for new entrepreneurs to sustain their businesses [12]. Group 4: Suggested Strategies - To address these challenges, a diversified asset allocation strategy is recommended, dividing funds into three parts: one for fixed-income products like bank deposits and government bonds, another for low-risk investments like bond funds, and the last for mixed funds that provide dividends [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of declining interest rates on deposits and the potential flow of funds into the stock market as high-yield deposits mature in the coming years [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - From 2022 to 2024, the RMB is entering a declining interest rate cycle, with bond and deposit rates continuously decreasing [2]. - By 2024, the 10-year government bond yield is expected to drop to around 1.6%, with deposit yields also falling to low levels [2]. Group 2: Maturing Deposits - A significant amount of high-yield deposits, amounting to tens of trillions, will mature between 2025 and 2026 [3]. Group 3: Fund Flow into Stock Market - It is unlikely that all maturing deposit funds will flow into the stock market due to the low-risk preference of depositors [5]. - Based on the risk profile, approximately 2.5 to 5 trillion RMB of the maturing deposits may flow into the equity market, while the majority will remain in stable assets like deposits or government bonds [5]. - This potential inflow is significant compared to the total A-share market size of 100 trillion RMB, as it could match the scale of domestic index funds developed over 20 years [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese residents are increasingly saving money, with a significant rise in bank deposits, reaching an increase of 10.77 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, averaging 1.79 trillion yuan per month, resulting in a historical high of 7,692 yuan per capita [1] - The reasons for the increase in savings include the need to prepare for unexpected events such as unemployment and health issues, as well as potential expenses for children's education, retirement, and home purchases [1] - The current investment market is perceived as risky, leading individuals to prefer saving in banks where principal and interest are guaranteed [1] Group 2 - Starting from September, individuals with fixed deposits should prepare for a continued decline in deposit interest rates [3] - From 2024, bank deposit rates are entering a downward trend, with the one-year deposit rate dropping from 2.25% to 1.35%, resulting in a significant reduction in interest income for depositors [5] - To mitigate the impact of declining rates, depositors are advised to consider higher-yielding banks for long-term deposits or invest in risk-free products like large-denomination certificates of deposit or government bonds [5] Group 3 - Depositors are advised to maintain liquidity by not locking all funds in long-term deposits, as emergencies may require access to cash [7] - A recommended strategy is to divide savings into three parts across different term deposits (1-year, 2-year, and 3-year) to ensure annual liquidity while still benefiting from higher interest rates [7] - The increasing number of small banks facing bankruptcy or dissolution poses a risk to depositors, with 105 banks approved for dissolution in 2024 [9] Group 4 - To safeguard against potential bank failures, depositors should check for deposit insurance, limit deposits to 500,000 yuan per bank, and diversify funds across multiple banks [9] - Many depositors feel that keeping money in banks yields insufficient returns, prompting a shift towards investing in stocks, funds, and bank wealth management products for higher returns [11] - The current investment environment is challenging, with significant bubbles in real estate and stock markets, leading depositors to wait for better investment opportunities while keeping their principal safe in banks [11]