银行账户里的钱正在悄然"搬家"。 央行近期披露的一组数据被广泛关注。7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，而非银存款则同比多增1.39万 亿元。 住户存款减少，转向非银存款，意味着在当前低利率和股市回暖的背景下，居民储蓄正通过银行理财、 基金、保险等渠道流向资本市场。 未来存款搬家可能持续演进。近期数据来看，超额存款的形成速度已经开始放缓，一方面由于居民对未 来经济状况预期有所好转，另一方面则是因为占居民金融资产最大部分的房产光环逐渐褪去。 在广谱利率下行与房地产投资属性弱化的双重催化下，超额储蓄有望加速向权益市场迁移，成为A股增 量资金的"主力军"。 有序的存款搬家是货币政策生效、金融改革深化和经济活力提升的标志。它表明资金正摆脱"沉睡"，通 过市场化的方式流向更能创造价值的地方，自然也是好事。 存款搬家的直接动力来自存款利率的持续下行。目前，国有大行一年期定存利率已跌破1%，10万元存 银行，年利息不足千元，对储户的吸引力大幅下降。 反观资本市场赚钱效应凸显。7月以来A股三大指数全线上涨，两市成交额创年内新高。股市的"慢 牛"行情与存款收益形成的巨大反差，让不少储户开始"心动"不如"行动"。 当然，这些资金并 ...

银行账户里的钱正在悄然"搬家"。 央行近期披露的一组数据被广泛关注。7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，而非银存款则同比多增1.39万 亿元。 住户存款减少，转向非银存款，意味着在当前低利率和股市回暖的背景下，居民储蓄正通过银行理财、 基金、保险等渠道流向资本市场。 有序的存款搬家是货币政策生效、金融改革深化和经济活力提升的标志。它表明资金正摆脱"沉睡"，通 过市场化的方式流向更能创造价值的地方，自然也是好事。 存款搬家的直接动力来自存款利率的持续下行。目前，国有大行一年期定存利率已跌破1%，10万元存 银行，年利息不足千元，对储户的吸引力大幅下降。 反观资本市场赚钱效应凸显。7月以来A股三大指数全线上涨，两市成交额创年内新高。股市的"慢 牛"行情与存款收益形成的巨大反差，让不少储户开始"心动"不如"行动"。 当然，这些资金并非直接涌入股市，而是更多地通过"固收+"等稳健型产品间接入市。据中信证券测 算，2025年7月，银行理财规模环比有望超预期增长约2万亿元至32.67万亿元，成为当月非银存款高增 的一大主因。 存款搬家对经济的意义无需多言。对居民而言，财富配置不再只有"定期"和"活期"两种选择，可以根据 风 ...

沪指今天盘中突破3800点。从资金的视角看，不少观点认为，这也与居民储蓄搬家有关。据央行数据， 7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，非银存款同比多增1.39万亿元。记者注意到，至少有10家券商发布研 报认为，7月金融数据显示居民"存款搬家"或已开始，在2025年下半年尤为明显，居民存款搬家的前提 是权益市场基本面预期改善。 整体来看，这些研究观点核心呈现了五点内容。 一是为什么存款搬家？存款利率持续下行的当下，存款搬家是大势所趋，核心在于资本市场的突出表 现。 存款搬家并非新鲜事，而是居民资产配置随市场环境变化的常态表现。券商研报普遍认为，7月住户存 款减少的核心原因，是资金从银行体系转向非银金融机构，即当居民将存款转入证券账户、购买基金或 银行理财时，银行"住户存款"科目下降，"非银金融机构存款"则相应增加，形成典型的"跷跷板效应"。 追溯历史，2005年以来我国已出现过五次明显的居民存款搬家，分别是2006-2007年、2009年、2012- 2015年、2021年，以及当前的2024-2025年。国信证券通过梳理历轮数据发现，低利率是推动存款搬家 的重要因素，但资本市场表现才是核心驱动力。 从当前环境看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of residents moving their deposits from low-yield savings accounts to higher-yield investment options, indicating a growing bullish sentiment in the A-share market as the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses 3800 points [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with daily transactions reaching 2.55 trillion yuan, reflecting heightened investor enthusiasm [2]. - Recent data from the People's Bank of China shows a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in resident deposits in July 2025, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, highlighting a shift in capital flow [12]. - The decline in deposit interest rates and the emergence of profitable investment opportunities in the stock market are driving residents to seek higher returns [12][19]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors, previously cautious about the stock market, are now considering reallocating funds to equities, as evidenced by anecdotal reports from bank wealth managers [5][10]. - High-net-worth individuals have been moving funds into the stock market since September 2022, with a notable increase in demand for equity investment products [8][9]. - The article notes that while some investors are actively moving funds to stocks, others remain hesitant, preferring to maintain a portion of their investments in low-risk products [10][19]. Group 3: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the current trend of deposit migration is still in its early stages, with potential for acceleration as market conditions improve [16]. - The total amount of resident deposits in China is approximately 160 trillion yuan, which is nearly four times the free float market capitalization of the A-share market, indicating a substantial potential for capital inflow [17]. - It is estimated that over 90 trillion yuan in deposits will mature in 2025, with a portion likely to seek higher returns, potentially leading to significant inflows into the equity market [19].

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, despite recent gains in major indices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the rebound began on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 21%, the Shenzhen Component Index over 27%, and the ChiNext Index over 43% [2]. - The CSI 300 Index has increased by over 19%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have risen by 26.8% and 31.96%, respectively [2]. - The CPO index has shown the strongest performance with a rise of over 123%, while other indices related to light chips, CRO, and rare earths have also seen significant increases [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Trends - High net worth individuals have only allocated 22% of their financial assets to funds and stocks, indicating a potential inflow of over 10 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - There are signs of a shift in household savings from bank deposits to stock investments, as indicated by a negative monthly change in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits [3]. - The A-share market has become the most net bought market recently, with a buying ratio of 1.1 times [3]. Group 3: Broker Insights - CICC reports that since May, there have been signs of deposits moving to the stock market, with M1 growth rising to 5.6% in July from 2.3% in May [5]. - The rapid growth of margin accounts at brokerages suggests that deposits are being prepared for market entry, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.4 trillion yuan in July [6]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has significantly increased, with daily turnover surpassing 2 trillion yuan and margin financing exceeding 2 trillion yuan [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities believes that the A-share market has ample space and opportunities, supported by strong household savings and a shift in risk appetite among residents [7]. - The potential inflow of household savings into the stock market could be substantial, with estimates suggesting a range of 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [6][7]. - The current valuation of A-shares remains reasonable compared to historical levels, indicating potential for further growth [6].

华夏时报记者张萌卢梦雪北京报道 "终于抢到2%以上的大额存单了！" 8月20日，90后投资者小吴告诉记者，由于认为当前存款利率偏低，她已蹲守多家银行的大额存单转让区近半个月。"这周开始，明显感觉转让的大额存单 多了起来。" 小吴最终成功购入某股份银行的大额存单，原年利率为2.1%，但因转让方让利，她的实际年化收益率超过了2.15%。 在农业银行、民生银行等机构APP的大额存单转让区，不少购入不足一个月的大额存单也被挂牌，且通常伴随小幅让利。尽管偶尔能刷到利率大幅高于当 前市场水平的转让产品，但往往上架即"秒没"，抢手程度可见一斑。 记者注意到，近期银行大额存单转让区"热闹"起来。有转让者不惜折价转让，或是将刚购入数日的大额存单火速挂牌，引来不少小吴一样的投资者"蹲 守"。 北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平向《华夏时报》记者分析称，近期大额存单转让量增加与股市回暖有显著的关联性，他同时判断，在存款利率下 行与股市赚钱效应驱动下，"存款搬家"进入股市的现象在现阶段将会延续。 大额存单"拼手速" 资金跑步入市重现 "大额存单转让随时放出，只要有人转让上面就可以看到。" 8月21日，记者以投资者身份向平安银行咨询 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in non-bank deposits and the shift of funds from fixed-income products to equity markets, driven by the rising stock market and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" [1][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first seven months of the year, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan and non-bank financial institution deposits increasing by 4.69 trillion yuan [3]. - In July alone, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [3]. - The year-on-year comparison shows that in July, household deposits decreased by 7.8 billion yuan while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The migration of deposits is attributed to several factors, including the end of the mid-year bank assessment, a significant return of household deposits to wealth management products, and the recent rise in the stock market [3][4]. - The trend of deposit activation is evident, with M1 growth rising to 5.6% in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a shift away from fixed-term deposits [4]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is also linked to the rapid growth of margin accounts at brokerage firms, suggesting that funds are being prepared for entry into the stock market [4]. Group 3: Market Activity and Fund Adjustments - The A-share market has seen a surge in trading activity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating a more active capital market [4]. - A total of 54 funds or asset management products have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, reflecting the impact of the shift from fixed-income to equity markets [6][8]. - The recent trend shows that over 70% of newly established funds are equity-based, with many funds ending their fundraising early to quickly enter the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that by the end of July 2025, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to exceed expectations, growing by approximately 2 trillion yuan to reach 32.67 trillion yuan, driven by the maturity of high-interest three-year deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [1] Group 1 - The growth in bank wealth management is primarily attributed to the reallocation of deposits as high-interest three-year deposits mature [1] - The decline in deposit rates is occurring at a faster pace than the decrease in wealth management product yields, enhancing the appeal of these products [1] - Non-bank deposits are significantly related to the growth in wealth management scale, with an expected increase of at least 800 billion yuan attributed to cash management and short-term fixed-income products [1] Group 2 - The structure of wealth management shows that cash contributions are relatively low, while "fixed income plus" products are emerging as a strong performer, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite [1] - The wealth management scale is anticipated to surpass 33 trillion yuan in August, with an annual target of over 33.5 trillion yuan [1]

中信证券研报称，根据我们测算，2025年7月末，银行理财规模环比超预期增长约2万亿元至32.67万亿 元，主要缘于三年期高利率存款集中到期引发的存款再配置，以及存款利率降幅快于理财收益率降幅， 抬升了理财产品的相对吸引力。非银存款高增与理财规模增长有较大关系，由于增量资金多为现金理财 和短期固收产品，配置存款的规模较大，预计至少在8000亿以上。结构上，现金类贡献较低，"固收 +"成为黑马，映射市场风险偏好提升。8月理财规模有望突破33万亿，预计全年理财规模有望达到33.5 万亿元以上。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions, indicating a shift in residents' savings behavior [1] - In July, residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, suggesting a trend of residents moving their savings [1][3] - The rise in A-shares, surpassing key resistance levels, has encouraged investors, leading to a potential influx of funds from banks to the stock market [3][4] Group 2 - The current A-share market trend is stable, with lower volatility compared to previous years, which may attract more external funds back into the market [4] - Regulatory changes and a significant drop in IPOs this year have fostered a more favorable environment for the stock market, enhancing investor confidence [4] - The movement of residents' savings from banks to investments is seen as a positive development, potentially boosting consumer spending and corporate performance [4]