证券研究报告|行业深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 03 日 [Table_Title] 银行股价复盘：与券商股行情对比及六轮大跌解析 [Table_Title2] 银行 ► 银行股与券商股行情比较 启动结束顺序：2011 年后，银行股启动通常早于券商股； 2014 年后，因券商弹性被市场熟知，其行情往往更早结束。 涨幅差异：除特定阶段外，券商股涨幅通常是银行股的 1.5 倍以上。 2016-2018 年独立于券商的银行股行情：上涨动力源于地 产周期复苏、息差回升、资产质量改善、对异地展业、同业业 务监管收紧带来的结构性利好，以及并购新规对中小盘股票利 空下的蓝筹价值风格。 [Table_Summary] 慢牛特性下银行股的下行逻辑比其上涨更具研究价值。当 宏观预期悲观、信用环境收紧、结构性风险爆发三大因素共振 时，银行板块通常面临显著的估值调整压力。此外，行业层面 其他行业对于银行传统业务的渗透，以及银行业自身资本监管 的加强也会重创银行估值；另外美联储加息带来的人民币贬值 往往会强化利空因素。 ► 银行股特性：高 ROE、高稳定性、慢牛 基本面特征：盈利波动性远低于沪深 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of public funds and bank wealth management products, highlighting the shift in performance benchmarks and the implications for individual investors and market dynamics [1][7][35]. Group 1: Public Fund Investor Composition - The article provides data on the proportion of individual investors in various types of public funds, with the total public fund size reaching 3406.52 billion yuan and individual investor holdings at 1741.64 billion yuan, representing 51.13% [1][18]. - Individual investor ownership in short-term pure bond funds is notably high at 45.41%, while REITs have the lowest at 2.78% [1][18]. Group 2: Comparison with Bank Wealth Management - Bank wealth management products have a total scale of 33.29 trillion yuan, predominantly consisting of fixed-income products, with individual investors making up a significant portion [2][19]. - The article notes that the low proportion of individual investors in bond funds compared to bank wealth management is attributed to the latter's historical advantages, such as guaranteed returns and clear performance benchmarks [22][24]. Group 3: Benchmark Changes - Both public funds and bank wealth management products are undergoing a "benchmark alignment," where bank products are shifting from clear numerical benchmarks to more complex index-based benchmarks [26][29]. - This change aims to reduce the frequency of adjustments in performance benchmarks, making both types of products more comparable in terms of performance expectations [27][28]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Implications - The article indicates a potential shift in market dynamics, with public funds gaining momentum as bank wealth management products face challenges, such as a decline in scale [25][35]. - The increasing similarity in performance benchmarks may lead to a convergence in risk-return profiles between public funds and bank wealth management products, raising questions about their distinct advantages [34][35].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 23 日 1Y 同业存单利率有望小幅下行 ——商业银行同业存单及负债梳理 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 2025 年下半年以来，同业存单余额下降较明显。截至 2026 年 1 月末，同业存单余 额 19.03 万亿元，较 2025 年 5 月末下降了 2.77 万亿。具体来看，截至 2026 年 1 月末，国有大行同业存单余额 6.34 万亿，较 25H1 下降了 1.36 万亿；股份行同业存 单余额 5.59 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.6 万亿；城商行同业存单余额 5.81 万亿，较 25H1 下降 0.13 万亿；农商行同业存单余额 1.14 万亿，较 25H1 变动较小。从发行期限结 构来看，2025 年初以来 1Y 的规模占比有所下降，从 2024 年末的 63.2%降至 2026 年 1 月末的 50.2%。 2025 年下半年以来大行同业存单余额明显下降，或与央行加大流 ...

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜汪梦婷 编辑｜杨锦 2026年的1月，本应是银行理财惯例中的"开门红"旺季，却意外遭遇了一场"倒春寒"。 全市场理财规模缩水逾千亿，头部大行理财子更是成为了缩量的重灾区。与此同时，公募基金却在权益市场的回暖中异军突起，月度发行份额创近三年新 高，开户数更是翻倍。 "一冷一热"背后，并非简单的季节性波动，还有居民财富在"降息周期"与"赚钱效应"博弈下的自发迁移。数据显示，今年1月，公募基金业绩表现优异，35 只基金月度收益超过30%，还有3只基金涨幅超过50%。 这种极端的业绩表现，不断通过社交媒体发酵。而银行理财长期以来宣传的"低波动、小确幸"，在权益基金单月50%的暴利面前，显得有些苍白无力。 按照往年惯例，1月通常是银行理财的"开门红"时点，然而今年1月的数据却给市场泼了一盆冷水。 据华西证券数据，全市场银行理财规模在1月内缩量1142 亿元，并未如市场预期那样回升。其中月末周（26-30日），在回表的驱动下，理财规模再度承 压，环比降1788亿元至33.18万亿元。 市场呈现出鲜明结构性特征。过去两年狂飙突进的头部理财子公司，在今年首月反而成为了缩量的重灾区。 据证券时报及相关渠道 ...

2026年春节，年轻人的年货清单正在悄然变"硬核"。他们不再只满足于囤零食与装饰品，而是将黄金、 纪念币、银行理财和保险等投资理财产品纳入"购物车"。无论是选购金饰、金条，追求一份看得见的踏 实，还是线上抢购限量发行的马年纪念币钞，他们开始用"资产"装点年味，让投资理财成为春节消费的 新选择。 这份崭新的新春"理"物背后，是现代理财观念与传统习俗的融合，既传承了为家纳福的仪式感，更实现 了对个人成长与家庭资产的守护。这不仅是消费方式的升级，更是为明天美好生活提前储备一份底气的 新年俗。 统筹：魏倩 张骄 作者：张骄 吴诗婷 黄坤 何奎 周亮 何治民 设计：滕陵 上海证券报出品 策划：黄蕾 【纠错】 【责任编辑:谷玥】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy by the central bank, aiming to support economic growth and optimize credit structures while addressing personal credit issues through specific policies [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Credit - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, integrating both incremental and stock policies to enhance effectiveness [1]. - New loan interest rates have decreased, with the weighted average interest rate for new loans in December at 3.15%, down 10 basis points from September [1]. - The growth rates for various loan categories, including technology loans (11.5%), green loans (20.2%), and digital economy loans (14.1%), have outpaced the overall loan growth rate [1]. Group 2: Asset Management Products and Deposits - The rapid growth of asset management products has influenced the structure of bank deposits, with a notable decline in the growth rate of resident deposits [1]. - By the end of 2025, the total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8]. - Over 80% of asset management products are allocated to fixed-income assets, indicating that funds, even when shifted to asset management products, ultimately flow back into the banking system [8]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Support for Credit - In January 2026, the central bank and the Ministry of Finance announced a package of policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand, including support for small and medium-sized enterprises and consumer spending [2]. - A one-time credit repair policy was introduced to help individuals improve their credit status by removing records of overdue debts under specific conditions [2]. - Investment recommendations for the banking sector in 2026 focus on identifying targets with potential for growth, banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [2].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The scale of public fixed income + funds reached a historical high of approximately 2.83 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, with a slight increase of 0.09 trillion yuan from Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.2% [6][7][12] - The top five fund companies in terms of fixed income + fund scale as of December 2025 were: Invesco Great Wall (230.9 billion yuan), E Fund (221.9 billion yuan), Huatai-PB (157.1 billion yuan), and others [7][8] - The equity allocation of fixed income + funds reached its highest level since Q4 2023, with stock, bond, and deposit market values accounting for 9.7%, 86.4%, and 1.5% respectively in Q4 2025 [8][9] Group 2: Fund Performance and Holdings - The average annual return for fixed income + funds in 2025 was 5.35%, with specific returns for different fund types: mixed debt funds (6.7%), first-level debt funds (2.4%), second-level debt funds (4.9%), and convertible bond funds (22.9%) [12] - The manufacturing sector dominated the investment focus of fixed income + funds, with an investment scale of 172.2 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 63% of total stock investments [9][10] - The top ten heavy positions in fixed income + funds showed strong stability, with major stocks like Zijin Mining, CATL, and Tencent remaining in the top three [10][11] Group 3: Banking Sector Analysis - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in the banking sector increased from 3.6% in Q3 2025 to 4.4% in Q4 2025, with a significant recovery in the banking index's quarterly return from -10.5% to 4.6% [17][18] - Notable banks such as Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank are recommended for their strong asset quality and risk management capabilities, with Ningbo Bank showing a collaborative model in wealth management and technology finance [20][19] - The overall performance of listed banks is relatively weak, but some banks exhibit strong growth potential due to differentiated operational strategies [20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights on Haibo Shichuang - Haibo Shichuang, established in 2011, has become a leading player in the domestic energy storage system integration market, ranking first in installed capacity in China by the end of 2024 [21][22] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of energy storage installations driven by the domestic electricity market reforms, with significant projects already secured [22][23] - Internationally, Haibo Shichuang has established partnerships and local teams in key markets, enhancing its ability to deliver projects and improve profitability, particularly in overseas markets [23][24]

业内专家表示，上年适度宽松的货币政策具有累积效应，存量政策效果还会持续显现。2026年初，央行 又推出了一揽子支持实体经济高质量发展的货币金融举措，这些增量政策也会和存量政策发挥协同效 应，进一步为实体经济平稳增长和物价合理回升营造适宜的货币金融环境。 直接融资加快发展 2025年，社会融资规模中，政府债券融资、企业债券融资和非金融企业境内股票融资均较上年明显增 多。特别是，通过创新推出债券市场"科技板"，全年发行科技创新债券超过1.5万亿元，资本市场投融 资新生态也在加速形成，专精特新企业、战略性新兴产业首发募集资金额占比显著提升。 2月10日，央行发布2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告。报告显示，从金融总量、价格、结构等多维指 标看，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果已逐步显现。金融总量保持较快增长，年末社会融资规模存量、 广义货币供应量（M2）同比分别增长8.3%和8.5%，明显高于名义GDP（国内生产总值）增速。 人民币贷款增速还原地方化债影响后也在7%左右，信贷支持力度持续较强。社会综合融资成本低位下 行，2025年12月新发放企业贷款和个人住房贷款利率均在3.1%左右。信贷结构也在持续优化，2025 ...

Investment Insights - The report discusses the significant upcoming maturity of approximately 67 trillion yuan in household time deposits in 2026, primarily formed after 2020 due to residents' precautionary savings amid uncertainties, with a notable shift from high interest rates above 3% to a low-rate environment where mainstream renewal rates are below 2% [9][15][27] - The potential reallocation of these funds is a focal point of market discussions, as it could impact the preservation and appreciation of household wealth and influence various financial asset prices [9][27] Fund Flow Directions - The report identifies three main directions for the funds from maturing deposits: 1. Renewal of deposits, which remains a default choice for most savers despite low interest rates, as consumption and housing purchases are not expected to dominate in the short term [2][15] 2. Early mortgage repayment, as the current mortgage rates exceed deposit and low-risk investment returns, leading to a high early repayment rate in RMBS, although this is not the primary direction for the funds [17] 3. Investment in both low-risk assets (such as bank wealth management products, bond funds, and insurance) and risk assets (like equity funds and the stock market), with the latter being the most debated potential direction for "deposit migration" [2][15][17] Asset Performance Influence - The ultimate direction of the maturing deposit funds towards low-risk or risk assets will depend on the actual performance of various asset classes, as funds inherently seek to chase better-performing assets and withdraw from underperforming ones [19][27] - Historical market trends indicate that funds tend to rotate based on asset performance, with recent trends showing simultaneous movements in both bond and stock markets due to significant allocations through "fixed income plus" strategies [19][27] Central Bank Perspective - The report highlights that funds from maturing deposits are likely to flow back into the banking system, albeit in a different form, as they transition from household deposits to non-bank institutional deposits [3][20][26] - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products are expected to be directed towards fixed-income assets, with a significant portion returning to bank deposits, indicating a structural change rather than a mass exodus from the banking system [3][20][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high-level decline in the growth rate of household deposits in China by the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift in asset allocation towards wealth management and asset management products, which is a response to the declining interest rates and a more diversified financial market [2][3]. Group 1: Asset Management Products Growth - The scale of asset management products has been growing rapidly, with a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [3][4]. - The growth in asset management products is attributed to the marketization of interest rates, where investors are weighing returns against risks, leading to a shift from bank deposits to these products [3][4]. - By the end of 2025, over 80% of asset management products were allocated to fixed-income assets, with significant investments in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit [4]. Group 2: Changes in Deposit Structure - The report indicates that the rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a recent decline in the proportion of household and corporate deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [5][6]. - Even though some deposits are shifting towards wealth management and asset management products, a significant portion is still directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which ultimately returns to the banking system [5][6]. Group 3: Liquidity Assessment - The overall liquidity in the financial system can be assessed by aggregating bank deposits and asset management products while excluding interbank transactions, showing a stable growth trend in liquidity over recent years [6][7]. - The central bank has effectively met the liquidity needs of the banking system through various tools, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations in 2025 [6][7]. - The current social financing environment remains relatively loose, supporting the real economy while allowing for a more diversified observation of asset and liability structures [7].