Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices, similar to past occurrences, impacting both the domestic cobalt market and related stocks. Group 1: Market Reactions - The DRC's strategic mineral market regulator announced a three-month extension of the cobalt export ban, causing a sharp reaction in the domestic cobalt product and securities markets, with companies like Hanrui Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt seeing notable stock price increases, and Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 15% [1] - On June 23, the price of 1 cobalt in the Changjiang spot market surged by 22,000 yuan to 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade [1] - Other cobalt products, including electrolytic cobalt and cobalt tetroxide, also experienced price increases ranging from 5,000 to 9,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - Currently, the price increase is concentrated in the upstream of the supply chain, with no significant transmission to downstream lithium cobalt oxide battery materials, as prices remain stable and purchasing sentiment is cautious [2] - The DRC's previous export ban in February led to a rapid price rebound for electrolytic cobalt, which rose from approximately 162,500 yuan per ton to 247,600 yuan within a month [2] Group 3: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The extension of the export ban has prompted a reevaluation of the supply-demand relationship in the cobalt industry for the year, with the DRC expected to produce 220,000 tons of cobalt in 2024, accounting for 76% of global production [4] - According to CITIC Securities, the ban could affect the DRC's cobalt export volume in 2025 by 128,000 tons, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage of 78,000 tons, which may trigger a new wave of price increases [4] - The three-month shipping period from the DRC to China means that the impact of the previous export ban on domestic supply will only be felt gradually, with the current extension increasing the risk of raw material shortages for domestic smelting companies [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The export ban is expected to create only a temporary supply contraction rather than a fundamental shift in long-term supply-demand dynamics [6] - Major cobalt producer Luoyang Molybdenum Co. stated that their production operations remain normal and that the extended ban is not expected to significantly impact their financial performance [7] - Even if cobalt prices rise to 300,000 yuan or 400,000 yuan per ton, the resumption of cobalt exports from the DRC would likely lead to a price decline, indicating that the DRC's export policies are a key variable influencing cobalt price trends this year [9]