★ 宏观动态 ★ 商务部：截至2024年底对外投资存量超过3万亿美元，连续8年保持全球前三 国新办8月26日下午3时举行新闻发布会，商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激表示，2012年以来，中国的对外投资 流量连续13年位居全球前三。截至2024年底，中国在境外设立企业超过5万家，遍布190个国家和地区。对外投资存量超 过3万亿美元，连续8年保持全球前三，占全球对外投资比重增至7.2%。在对外投资发展过程中，中国企业的国际竞争力 不断提升，为全球产供链的稳定畅通作出了积极贡献。 深圳首家市内免税店正式开业 8月26日，深圳首家市内免税店正式开业。市内免税店由中免集团、深圳免税集团、深业集团联合打造，该店位于深业上 城一层，面积近3000平方米。门店聚焦消费者多元需求，涵盖美妆护肤、腕表首饰、高端酒水、国潮精品、科技电子等 品类的商品。 今晚油价下调 加满一箱油能少花7元 据央视财经，根据国家发展改革委消息，新一轮成品油调价窗口将于8月26日24时开启。据国家发展改革委价格监测中心 监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（8月12日—8月25日）国际油价先降后升。记者今天从国家发展改革委获悉，本次油价调 整具体情况如下：从 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20250818-20250822） 推荐（维持） 美联储降息预期升温，金属价格有望支撑 行业研究 有色金属 2025 年 08 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 证券分析师：李梦娇 邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 125 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 36,582.84 | 3.17 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,041.21 | 3.46 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.8% | 32.4% | 54.5% | | 相对表现 | 2.5% | 22.4% | 22.4% | -7% 13% 33% 53% 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/06 25/08 2024-08-2 ...

Group 1: Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is expected to see significant performance growth in Q3 2023, driven by high earnings per share (EPS) revisions and improved market conditions [1] - Domestic self-developed online games in the first half of the year experienced a 20% increase, primarily due to enhanced average revenue per user (ARPPU) [1] - Major titles set to launch include "Valorant," "Famous Generals," "Nine Muses of the Wild," "Iser" domestic version, and "Eternal Ring," contributing to a strong Q3 performance [1] Group 2: Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are anticipated to experience a cyclical upward trend between 2025 and 2027 due to an optimized long-term supply-demand balance [2] - The cobalt supply-demand relationship is likely to remain in a state of shortage in 2026 and 2027, suggesting a potential price rebound similar to previous cycles [2] - Future cobalt prices may stabilize above 350,000 yuan per ton, indicating a sustained increase in the coming years [2] Group 3: Solar Thermal Power - Solar thermal power is recognized for its significant role in constructing a new type of power system, providing stable and continuous electricity generation [3] - This energy source combines peak-shaving capabilities and energy storage, offering long-term peak regulation and inertia in the power system [3] - The value distribution of solar thermal systems highlights that the concentrator system, heat absorption system, thermal system, and storage system hold substantial value [3]

Group 1 - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799.SH) released its semi-annual report for 2025, indicating that as of August 17, 2025, 162 institutional investors disclosed holdings in Huayou Cobalt A-shares, totaling 721 million shares, which accounts for 42.38% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Huayou Holding Group Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, and several major banks and funds, with the top ten collectively holding 36.43% of the shares, an increase of 4.55 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 20 funds increased their holdings compared to the previous period, with a holding increase ratio of 0.51%, including major ETFs like Huaxia CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF [2] - Conversely, 64 public funds decreased their holdings, with a decrease ratio of 0.38%, including funds such as HSBC Jintrust Low Carbon Pioneer Stock A and Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF [2] - A total of 59 new public funds were disclosed this period, including funds like E Fund New Energy New Materials Stock A and Huaxia CSI New Energy Vehicle ETF [2]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports due to concerns over global market oversupply, which has been extended for an additional three months [1][2] - The suspension is expected to significantly alter the global cobalt supply-demand landscape by 2025, potentially leading to an upward shift in cobalt prices [1][5] - China's imports of cobalt from the DRC have seen a substantial decline, with June imports dropping by 60.8% compared to May, indicating tightening supply [2][3] Group 2 - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum Co. have stated that the export ban will have limited impact on their operations in the short term, as they have sufficient inventory to manage through the supply disruption [3][5] - The ban is expected to lead to a depletion of existing inventories, which may result in a tighter supply situation for cobalt in the coming months, particularly in August and September [5][6] - Cobalt prices have already shown a significant increase following the DRC's export ban, rising from 166,000 CNY/ton to 250,000 CNY/ton within approximately 20 days, reflecting a 50.6% increase [6]

Group 1 - Shanghai Xiba plans to participate in the auction of lithium sulfide business assets from Yuyuan Rare Earth New Materials Co., indicating a strategic move into the new energy sector and solid-state battery technology [1] - The auctioned assets include intangible and fixed assets, with a focus on lithium sulfide production technology, which is solely owned by Yuyuan Rare Earth [1] - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, suggesting manageable risk for Shanghai Xiba [1] Group 2 - Huayou Cobalt expects a net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.62% to 67.59% [2] - The profit increase is attributed to the continuous release of integrated operational advantages, rising cobalt prices, and ongoing management reforms and cost reduction efforts [2] - The company reported a net profit of 1.252 billion yuan in the first quarter, with the second quarter expected to yield a net profit of 1.348 billion to 1.548 billion yuan, indicating strong operational momentum [2] Group 3 - A lithium battery recycling plant in Spain experienced a fire that lasted for three days, injuring two individuals and raising safety concerns within the industry [3] - The fire, caused by several explosions, highlights potential operational stability issues for related companies and may prompt the industry to enhance safety standards [3] - The incident could negatively impact market confidence in the lithium battery recycling sector in the short term, despite potential long-term benefits for compliant enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a significant increase in cobalt prices, similar to past occurrences, impacting both the domestic cobalt market and related stocks. Group 1: Market Reactions - The DRC's strategic mineral market regulator announced a three-month extension of the cobalt export ban, causing a sharp reaction in the domestic cobalt product and securities markets, with companies like Hanrui Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt seeing notable stock price increases, and Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 15% [1] - On June 23, the price of 1 cobalt in the Changjiang spot market surged by 22,000 yuan to 256,000 yuan per ton, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade [1] - Other cobalt products, including electrolytic cobalt and cobalt tetroxide, also experienced price increases ranging from 5,000 to 9,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Impact - Currently, the price increase is concentrated in the upstream of the supply chain, with no significant transmission to downstream lithium cobalt oxide battery materials, as prices remain stable and purchasing sentiment is cautious [2] - The DRC's previous export ban in February led to a rapid price rebound for electrolytic cobalt, which rose from approximately 162,500 yuan per ton to 247,600 yuan within a month [2] Group 3: Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The extension of the export ban has prompted a reevaluation of the supply-demand relationship in the cobalt industry for the year, with the DRC expected to produce 220,000 tons of cobalt in 2024, accounting for 76% of global production [4] - According to CITIC Securities, the ban could affect the DRC's cobalt export volume in 2025 by 128,000 tons, potentially shifting the global cobalt market from oversupply to a shortage of 78,000 tons, which may trigger a new wave of price increases [4] - The three-month shipping period from the DRC to China means that the impact of the previous export ban on domestic supply will only be felt gradually, with the current extension increasing the risk of raw material shortages for domestic smelting companies [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The export ban is expected to create only a temporary supply contraction rather than a fundamental shift in long-term supply-demand dynamics [6] - Major cobalt producer Luoyang Molybdenum Co. stated that their production operations remain normal and that the extended ban is not expected to significantly impact their financial performance [7] - Even if cobalt prices rise to 300,000 yuan or 400,000 yuan per ton, the resumption of cobalt exports from the DRC would likely lead to a price decline, indicating that the DRC's export policies are a key variable influencing cobalt price trends this year [9]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower on June 23, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index turning positive during the session [1] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index opened lower, with JD.com leading the decline among blue chips [1][2] Sector Performance - Oil and gas stocks showed strong performance, with Shandong Molong and MI Energy rising nearly 15% [1][3] - Shipping stocks also performed well, with Ningbo Shipping and Xingtong Co. hitting the daily limit [5][6] Oil and Gas Sector - WTI crude oil futures rose over 6% in early trading, contributing to the rally in oil and gas stocks [3] - Citic Securities predicts that Brent crude oil prices may break $80 per barrel, with a trading range expected between $70 and $100 per barrel [5] Shipping Sector - Shipping and port stocks in Hong Kong also saw gains, with DeXiang Shipping rising over 17% [6] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran's potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is influencing market sentiment [6] Cobalt and Solid-State Battery Sector - Cobalt-related stocks experienced a surge, with Tengyuan Cobalt rising over 17% [7] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an extension of a temporary ban on cobalt exports, impacting market dynamics [9] - Solid-state battery stocks are gaining traction, with companies reporting advancements in production timelines [9] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor and photolithography stocks saw strong performance, with multiple companies hitting daily limits [9]

Group 1 - Cobalt Holdings Plc has terminated its IPO process in the UK [1] - The company had applied for a London IPO on May 12, aiming to be the largest IPO in the London financial market in two years [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses various industry reports and analysis sessions scheduled for May 19, 2023, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals and electronics [1][2][3] - Key topics include a deep dive into the pharmaceutical company Ailis, a summary of the generic drug sector for 2024 and Q1, and an analysis of the black electrical appliances industry [1][2][7][13] - The sessions are led by industry analysts with expertise in their respective fields, indicating a thorough examination of market trends and opportunities [1][4][20] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector report on Ailis is presented by senior analysts, highlighting the company's performance and market positioning [2][4] - The generic drug sector analysis will cover market dynamics and financial performance for the first quarter of 2024, providing insights into growth potential [7][20] - The black electrical appliances industry session aims to dissect profit margins, product iterations, and competitive landscape developments [13][20]