有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 如何理解当前稀土板块的行情 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 34 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；关税等因素影响出口需求与产业链稳定性；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 24 日 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | | 重视有色新材料在 AI 硬件的加速应用：— | 2025-08-17 | | --- | --- | | —有色钢铁行业周思考（2025 年第 33 | | | 周） | | | 电解铝：盈利拉久期，周期转红利：—— | 2025-08-15 | | 铝行业深度报告 | | | 大阅兵催化限产政策落地，行业供给侧变 | 2025-08-12 | | 化或将临近 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 看 ...

Summary of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tengyuan Cobalt Industry - **Industry**: Cobalt and New Energy Materials Key Points and Arguments Strategic Direction - Tengyuan Cobalt adheres to the strategy of "expanding China, online expansion, and downward extension" to drive product upgrades through technological innovation, establishing a dual-driven supply chain of natural and secondary resources, solidifying its leading position in cobalt salts, and expanding into various cobalt products and battery materials [2][4][5] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.532 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit of 419 million yuan, up nearly 40% [4][12] - The gross margin for cobalt products improved to 23.77%, with production capacity increasing from 6,500 metric tons before listing to 31,500 metric tons [4][12] Production and Cost Control - The company operates three production bases: Steel Hardware, Ganzhou Tengyuan, and Ganzhou Tengchi, which enhance cost efficiency through integrated manufacturing processes [6] - The unique reverse flow process allows for significant cost reductions and improved competitiveness in the market [6] Market Trends and Opportunities - Global military spending is expected to grow by nearly 10% in 2024, with a forecasted increase exceeding 10% in 2025, providing growth opportunities for the company, particularly in high-performance electronic materials for drones and large aircraft propulsion systems [7] - The rise of artificial intelligence is anticipated to drive demand for high-end new energy batteries, with projected cobalt demand increases of over 300,000 tons by 2035 due to humanoid robots [8] Supply Chain Challenges - The steel ban has alleviated supply excess but poses challenges in raw material procurement, necessitating a focus on secondary resource recovery [9][10] - The company has established domestic and international waste material channels and signed contracts with multiple suppliers to increase the proportion of secondary resources in raw materials [10] Future Projects and Investments - Key projects for the first half of 2025 include the commissioning of new production facilities and expansion of copper production capacity [13] - The company plans to accelerate globalization through new projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is actively seeking overseas mining resources [14][15] Production Capacity and Product Focus - The company aims to maintain its production capacity without significant increases in 2025, focusing on maximizing the output of existing products, particularly tetrahydrocobalt [21][22] - The production and sales of cobalt products related to consumer electronics, such as cobalt chloride and tetrahydrocobalt, accounted for over 70% of the product structure in the first half of 2025 [22] Raw Material Inventory and Sales Strategy - Tengyuan Cobalt maintains a leading position in raw material inventory, ensuring no immediate concerns regarding raw material shortages [24] - The sales strategy involves gradual shipments based on financial plans without aggressive price reductions, focusing on small orders in the market [24] Secondary Resource Strategy - Secondary resources now account for over 20% of the company's raw material composition, reflecting a successful strategy implemented since 2020 [25] Regulatory Environment - Potential implementation of a quota system in the DRC is anticipated, but specific details remain unclear [26] Lithium Carbonate Recovery - The lithium carbonate recovery business has seen profitability improvements, but its overall volume remains low, primarily serving as a byproduct [27] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic initiatives, financial performance, market opportunities, and challenges within the cobalt industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous and steel industries [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of new non-ferrous materials in accelerating applications in AI hardware, highlighting that the market has not fully priced in the use of non-ferrous metals in AI [12][13]. - The demand for liquid cooling technology is expected to grow significantly due to the limitations of air cooling systems, with copper and aluminum being key materials for heat transfer [13]. - The report forecasts a substantial increase in the market for metal soft magnetic materials driven by the explosive growth in AI computing power, with AI server shipments projected to rise significantly [14]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report highlights the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI hardware, with copper and aluminum being essential materials due to their thermal conductivity [13]. - It notes that the next generation of AI computing cards will adopt full liquid cooling solutions, further driving demand for these metals [13]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies like Huafeng Aluminum (601702) and Platinum New Materials (300811) due to their strategic positioning in the market [13][14]. Steel Industry - The report discusses the short-term fluctuations in steel profitability under the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for stabilization and recovery in the medium term [15]. - It notes a decrease in rebar consumption, with a reported 190 million tons consumed this week, reflecting a 9.89% week-on-week decline [15][20]. - The report indicates that steel prices are expected to rise in the future, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [32]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium production in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39]. - It highlights the high growth in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with a 24.11% year-on-year increase in production in June 2025 [43]. - The report mentions rising prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with lithium carbonate prices reaching 83,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an 18.57% week-on-week increase [48][49]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that global refined copper production increased by 2.88% year-on-year in May 2025, although supply growth is not keeping pace with demand [57][59]. - It highlights a significant rise in the import volume of scrap copper, which increased by 19.05% month-on-month in June 2025 [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, production has rebounded, downstream demand has increased, and social inventory has been depleted. In the short - term, both supply and demand have strengthened. The impact from Jiangxi's mining end continues, but the exchange has taken measures to cool down coking coal futures. It is necessary to guard against the decline of "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. In operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots (-185,297), and the open interest was 389,177 lots (-3,498). The contango in the spot market was strong, and the basis discount narrowed [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $926.00 to $937.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose from $1,275.00 to $1,300.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from $2,030.00 to $2,075.00; the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was $0.00 (previously $7,250.00), and the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained at $8,350.00 [3] 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose from $81,000.00 to $82,000.00; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) increased from $78,800.00 to $79,750.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) increased from $8.50/kg to $8.60/kg; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained domestic) rose from $71,990.00 to $73,040.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized domestic) increased from $77,110.00 to $78,110.00 [3] 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was $76,575.00; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) remained at $76,830.00; the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) remained at $72,130.00; the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) remained at $90,235.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) rose from $118,795.00 to $118,995.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $113,260.00 to $113,530.00; the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $116,330.00 to $116,610.00; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) increased from $145,970.00 to $146,070.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) rose from $35,050.00 to $35,390.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) increased from $31,235.00 to $34,040.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) rose from $31,000.00 to $31,230.00; the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased from $223,350.00 to $223,850.00 [3] 3.5 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] 3.6 Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 21,939 tons (+260 tons). Social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons [3] 4. Market Information - The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February; the July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data was released, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts [3]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban, which affects China's cobalt intermediate imports, as 98%-99% of China's primary cobalt is sourced from DRC [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Fluctuations**: The first export ban led to a doubling of cobalt intermediate prices, while the second ban saw a smaller increase of approximately 8.5%, indicating market expectations and inventory levels' influence [2][6]. - **Electrolytic Cobalt Profitability**: Electrolytic cobalt transitioned from positive to negative profitability due to high inventory levels and overcapacity, leading to forced destocking [2][8][11]. - **Sulfuric Cobalt Market**: Sulfuric cobalt briefly achieved profitability in March 2025 but fell back into losses due to supply and demand pressures, including weak demand from ternary battery precursors [9][12]. - **Chloride Cobalt and Ternary Oxide**: These products maintained relatively stable profits due to a make-to-order production model, benefiting from consumer subsidies, although profits are expected to decline due to raw material shortages [10][12]. - **Future Trends**: The cobalt industry is expected to face shortages by the end of August 2025, with prices projected to rise slowly until November [4][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The cobalt supply chain is shifting towards resource acquisition capabilities and order binding, with a focus on reducing production costs due to profit compression across production stages [4][18]. - **Global Supply Balance**: The global cobalt supply may face an oversupply situation, but DRC's export restrictions create regional supply-demand imbalances [17][20]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels vary significantly across different market participants, with electrolytic cobalt social inventory estimated to be around 8 months [15][14]. - **Impact of Price Increases**: Price increases in cobalt significantly affect demand for downstream products, particularly when prices reach around $26-$27 per pound, leading to reduced purchasing from manufacturers [25][32]. - **Future of Cobalt Recycling**: Domestic cobalt recycling is currently limited, contributing about 1,000 tons per month, with potential increases expected as raw material costs rise [24][29]. Conclusion The cobalt industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by export bans, fluctuating prices, and shifting supply dynamics. The anticipated shortages and price increases in the coming months highlight the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to adapt to these changes.

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights the recent performance of precious metals, with gold rising by 1.24% and silver by 3.79% due to the easing of panic following weaker non-farm data [5] - Copper prices increased by 1.40% this week, benefiting from improved economic sentiment in the US [6] - The lithium market is experiencing a significant price surge due to potential supply constraints, with expectations of prices reaching 65,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton in the near future [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as procurement of high-priced raw materials increases among manufacturers [8] - The rare earth market is showing signs of improvement, with exports increasing by 21.4% year-on-year in July [8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a weekly increase of 5.24%, ranking third among sectors [17] - The top five stocks in the sector this week included Huaguang New Materials and Ningbo Yunsheng [18] Section 2: Prices - Basic metals saw price increases: LME copper up 1.40%, aluminum up 1.69%, zinc up 3.83%, lead up 1.49%, and tin up 1.17% [20] - Precious metals also saw gains: COMEX gold up 1.24% and silver up 3.79% [20] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible copper inventory increased by 19,482 tons, while aluminum inventory rose by 2,716 tons [33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a strong and volatile trend in the short term. After the shutdown of some mines, the price has risen, and other lithium carbonate resources from the raw material end will enter the market to supplement supply, having little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Jiangxi mining end and the market's "feedback" sentiment. Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when entering the market at high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Market**: On August 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit. The trading volume was 38,071 lots (-857,538), and the open interest was 317,676 lots (-3,030). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis discount widened. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,000 yuan/ton (+3,700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 80,560 yuan/ton (+3,920), etc. [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 19,389 tons (+560). Social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons (+692), with smelters at 20,999 tons (-959), downstream at 48,159 tons (+2,271), and other sectors at 43,260 tons (-620) [3] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased (840 US dollars/ton, +63), and the price of mica also rose. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,155 yuan/ton (+35) [3] - **Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,500 yuan/ton (+2,600), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,300 yuan/ton (+2,500). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) also increased [3] Industry News - In July, China's power battery installation volume was 55.9 GWh, a 4.0% decrease from the previous month but a 34.3% increase year - on - year. Among them, ternary battery installation volume was 10.9 GWh (19.6% of the total, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume was 44.9 GWh (80.9% of the total, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month and a 49.0% increase year - on - year) [3] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In August, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week [3] - **Demand**: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased from the previous month, and the 3C product shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The lithium price is expected to rise in the short term due to the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia lithium mine, along with supply disruptions from other mines [4] - The report highlights the price trends of various materials, including a decrease in cobalt prices and an increase in lithium concentrate prices [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Military New Materials - Electrolytic cobalt price is 260,000 CNY/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.89, down 6.9% [1][10] - Carbon fiber price remains stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -8.64 CNY/kg [1][21] New Energy Vehicle Materials - Lithium concentrate price is 669 USD/ton, up 4.69% week-on-week [1][8] - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide and other lithium products show mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 65,600 CNY/ton, up 0.6% [1][28] - Phosphate lithium price is 327,000 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week [1][40] Photovoltaic New Materials - Photovoltaic-grade polysilicon price is stable at 4.94 USD/kg [2] - EVA price remains at 10,100 CNY/ton, at a low level since 2013 [2] Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium price is 59.58 USD/pound, up 4.0% [2] Other Materials - Rhodium price increased by 2.4% to 1,910 CNY/gram [3][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: China has increased its gold reserves for the ninth consecutive month, with a total of 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces. The market is influenced by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year [3][12] - Industrial Metals: The seasonal peak is approaching, and attention should be paid to the pace of inventory reduction. Copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while aluminum prices may experience fluctuations due to seasonal factors [4][14] - New Energy Metals: The mining operation at Jiangxiawo has been confirmed to be suspended with no plans for resumption in the short term. The lithium market is expected to remain strong due to resilient demand despite supply disruptions [19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths are showing slight weakness, but there is limited downside potential in the short term due to existing supply gaps [20] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: Continuous increase in gold reserves by China and rising expectations for a Fed rate cut [11] - Industrial Metals: Seasonal peak approaching, focus on inventory reduction [14] - New Energy Metals: Suspension of mining operations at Jiangxiawo [19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices showing slight weakness [20] 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 5.8%, with gold showing the largest increase among sub-sectors [24][28] - Notable stock performances include Kexin New Energy (+53.05%) and West Materials (-12.66%) [26] 3. Major Events - Macro: Trump criticizes Powell for delayed rate cuts; China's July PPI decreased by 3.6% [39] - Industry: China continues to increase gold reserves; Jiangxiawo mining operation confirmed to be suspended [44] 4. Non-Ferrous Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: Copper and aluminum prices remain stable with copper inventory increasing [47] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices are rising due to a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [66]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]