行业 纸浆日报 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635738 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the stage of supply - demand game, pulp prices are expected to follow the overall market atmosphere, showing a short - term volatile trend. Supply contraction expectations are strengthening. If international pulp mills implement their production cut plans and domestic small and medium - sized pulp enterprises cut production passively due to losses, the marginal tightening of the supply side may support price recovery. The demand side has structural improvements. During the peak season of downstream base paper, it is expected to drive the recovery of base paper demand. If macro - consumption stimulus policies are implemented, it may catalyze the start of the restocking cycle [80]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of August 7, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China showed a destocking trend, with a combined reduction of 57,000 tons in the mainstream port samples, a 2.7% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory was at a low level for the year [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced that from August 6, 2025, its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months would decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity, equivalent to a reduction of about 400,000 - 500,000 tons, about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp. It also announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Basis and Spread - On August 8, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 688 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.61% and a year - on - year increase of 28.36%. The basis of Russian Needle was 58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.35%. The Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 630 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.55% and a year - on - year increase of 57.50% [14]. - The 09 - 11 spread on August 8, 2025, decreased by 400.00% month - on - month, and the 11 - 01 spread decreased by 8.93% month - on - month [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish widened, while the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish narrowed. On August 8, 2025, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 1,770 yuan/ton, a 2.31% month - on - month increase and a 73.53% year - on - year increase; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 1,140 yuan/ton, a 3.39% month - on - month decrease and an 83.87% year - on - year increase [24][25]. - The import profits of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On August 8, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 37.64 yuan/ton, a 19.77% month - on - month increase and a 72.60% year - on - year increase; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 13.08 yuan/ton, a 2848.53% month - on - month decrease and a 95.31% year - on - year increase [30][31]. - The price of imported softwood pulp declined, with the price of Russian Needle dropping. The price of imported hardwood pulp also decreased due to weak market demand. The prices of natural and chemimechanical pulp showed different trends [36][38][43]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port inventories increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased month - on - month [46][47]. - In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated trend. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased by 10.96% month - on - month [50][51]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of different types of finished paper varied. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard decreased, that of double - offset paper increased, that of copperplate paper decreased, and that of household tissue paper was relatively stable [53][54][55]. - The prices of finished paper showed different trends. The price of white cardboard decreased slightly, the price of household tissue paper was range - bound, the prices of double - offset paper and copperplate paper were stable [56][60][61]. - The profits of finished paper were recovering. On August 8, 2025, the profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper were 242 yuan/ton, 182.8 yuan/ton, - 14.74 yuan/ton, and 613.5 yuan/ton respectively, with varying month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.048 million tons, a 2.71% month - on - month decrease and a 15.84% year - on - year increase. All ports showed a destocking trend [76][77].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5074 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.91% [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco's June Quotes: Yinxing was 740 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - Supply - side Data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 302 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [7] - Inventory Data: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, with only Qingdao Port's inventory decreasing compared to the previous week, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Downstream Market: The market orders of downstream paper mills had no obvious improvement, and the prices of finished paper remained stable. Currently, the port de - stocking speed was slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market was relatively loose, and it was oscillating in the low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - On July 4, Finland's Stora Enso announced that its Kemi pulp mill and the adjacent paper mill would resume production after weeks of maintenance and repair. Production would resume in stages, and the factory startup would take about two days. During the five - week annual maintenance shutdown, its subsidiary changed the digester damaged in the explosion in March 2024. The new Kemi pulp mill, put into use in Q4 2023, had the world's largest softwood pulp production line, with an annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, including about 1.1 million tons of market pulp [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including pulp spot and futures prices, price spreads, warehouse receipts, and inventory in different regions [14][16][18][25][27][29]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 资料来源：曼谈纸业，纸业联讯，隆众资讯 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月3日，中国纸浆常熟港库存59.8万吨，较上周期上涨5.2万吨，环比上涨9.5%。本周常熟港库存呈现累库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月3日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存137.8万吨，较上周上涨2.6万吨，环比上涨1.9%。本周期青岛港库存周 期内呈现累库的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年7月 ...