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上期所:10月14日收盘结算时起调整纸浆和胶版印刷纸期货交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 09:29
上海期货交易所10日通知称,经研究决定,自2025年10月14日(星期二)收盘结算时起,纸浆、胶版印 刷纸期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为5%,套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为6%,一般持仓交易保证金比 例调整为7%。 如遇《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》第十三条规定情况,则在上述交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅 度基础上调整。 根据上期所发布的资料,纸浆、胶版印刷纸期货合约现行的涨跌停板幅度标准为6%,套保持仓和一般 持仓交易保证金比例分别为7%和8%。 | 品种 | | 现行标准(%) | | | 调整后标准(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 涨跌 | 交易保证金 | | 涨跌 | 交易保证金 | | | | 停板 | 套保持仓 | -般持仓 | 停板 | 套保持仓 | -股持仓 | | 纸浆 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ਵ | 6 | 1 | | 胶版印刷纸 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 | | (文章来源:新华财经) ...
农产品日报:郑糖震荡反弹,关注台风影响-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:56
农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨,较前一日变动+80元/吨,幅度+0.61%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨,较前一日变动-46元/吨,现货基差CF01+1460,较前一日变动-185;3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨, 较前一日变动-20元/吨,现货基差CF01+1444,较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯,巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量,加上海外纺企刚需补库,装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨,环比(7.7万吨)大幅增加130.8%,同比(17.0万吨)增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看,中国为主要出 口国,出口量占总量的19%;巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二,各占比15%;孟加拉出口量排第三,占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面,9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量,期初库存和期末库存继续调减, 全球库存创近四年低点,不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位,新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市,阶段性供应压力增加,而美棉出口 ...
弘业期货:十一假期综述宏观有色板块
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 05:35
十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期,市场表现引人瞩目,主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨,其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头,涨幅达到 6.7%,刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内,多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购,期限为三个 月,旨在维持市场流动性。此外,市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下,A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期,供应压力缓解有限,沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落,海外锌库存持续回 落,伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强,沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱, 但矿端供应仍偏宽松,国内锌供应压力仍较大,国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落,呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落,仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复,原生铅检修后逐步复产,整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般, 国内库存下降至低位,不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强,铅震荡偏弱。 ...
永安期货纸浆早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:49
纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 SP主力合约收盘价: 4878.00 | 日期 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 4878.00 | 5016.00 | 5060.00 | 5044.00 | 5008.00 | | 折美元价 | 597.56 | 613.50 | 619.75 | 618.06 | 614.33 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -2.75120% | -0.86957% | 0.31721% | 0.71885% | 0.00000% | | 山东银星基差 | 687 | 594 | 550 | 566 | 602 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 682 | 609 | 565 | 581 | 617 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
金信期货日刊-20250930
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 00:47
本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/30 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 沪银期货上涨:多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格再次持续走高,主力合约收盘10939元/千克,9月29日单日涨幅达3.92%%,创下阶段性新 高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 宏观层面,美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点,市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息,显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张,避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨,连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增,而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出,扩产受限加剧短缺。 金信期货日刊 不过需警惕短期风险,当前金银比仍高于历史均值,且白银市场规模较小,资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看,降息周期延续与绿色 ...
2023年纸浆期货累计交割107.5万吨,同比增长73.2%,交割量创上市以来新高
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-09-29 07:57
央广网北京4月19日消息 2024年4月17日-19日,由中国造纸协会主办的2024中国造纸协会年会系列 会议在杭州举办。本届会议以"析供需,稳产业,促高质量发展"为主题,上海期货交易所(下称上期 所)副总经理李辉出席会议并致辞。 下一步,上期所将结合纸浆期货运行情况以及造纸行业生产、贸易、消费特点,持续扩大优质可供 交割资源范围,不断优化交割库布局,密切关注市场动向,稳定市场预期,鼓励企业充分运用期货市场 管理价格波动风险。同时,抓紧推进胶版印刷纸和瓦楞原纸期货及期权上市,稳步研发纸浆期权,有序 深化纸浆期货国际化,向行业提供更加精准、更加高效的风险管理工具,助力造纸产业高质量发展。 造纸业是国家重要基础原材料产业,在国民经济各领域发挥着重要作用。2018年,上期所纸浆期货 挂牌上市,标志着期货服务造纸产业迈出先行一步。纸浆期货上市近六年来总体运行平稳,发现价格、 管理风险和配置资源功能初显成效,为造纸行业的稳定持续健康发展贡献了期货力量。市场规模方面, 2023年纸浆期货成交1.3亿手,同比增加55.0%,成交金额7.2万亿元,同比增加29.8%,日均持仓44.1万 手,同比增加32.6%。交割服务方面, ...
金信期货日刊-20250929
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 00:53
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/29 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 沪银期货上涨:多重逻辑共振下的行情演绎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪银期货价格持续走高,主力合约收盘10632元/千克,9月26日单日涨幅达2.27%,成交量近百万手,创 下阶段性新高。这轮上涨是宏观预期、供需基本面与市场情绪共同作用的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 宏观层面,美联储宽松预期是核心推手。新任美联储理事鸽派发言支持年内降息150个基点,市场预期未来 两次议息会议均将降息,显著降低白银持有成本。叠加俄乌、中东局势紧张,避险资金持续涌入贵金属市 场。 基本面支撑更为坚实。2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达3659吨,连续五年供不应求。光伏装机量大幅增长 带动工业用银需求激增,而白银70%作为铜铅锌副产品产出,扩产受限加剧短缺。 不过需警惕短期风险,当前金银比仍高于历史均值,且白银市场规模较小,资金进出易引发波动。中长期 看,降息周期 ...
银河期货原油期货早报-20250926
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 07:01
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain
南华期货早评-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].
农产品日报:基本面利好驱动不足,板块整体承压-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:11
农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 基本面利好驱动不足,板块整体承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘棉花2601合约13530元/吨,较前一日变动-25元/吨,幅度-0.18%。现货方面,3128B棉新疆到 厂价15030元/吨,较前一日变动+6元/吨,现货基差CF01+1500,较前一日变动+31;3128B棉全国均价15083元/吨, 较前一日变动+21元/吨,现货基差CF01+1553,较前一日变动+46。 近期市场资讯,据USDA,截止9月18日当周,2025/26美陆地棉周度签约1.95万吨,环比降54%,较四周平均水平 降53%,同比降19%,其中印度签约0.62万吨,土耳其签约0.51万吨;2026/27年度美陆地棉无新增周度签约;2025/26 美陆地棉周度装运3.11万吨,环比增14%,较四周平均水平增6%,同比增6%,其中越南装运0.95万吨,印度0.48 万吨,中国0.16万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面,9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量,期初库存和期末库存继续调减, 全球库存创近四年低点,不过USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位。此次 ...