本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/27 金信期货日刊 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 中证1000股指期货上涨，释放这些信号！ 近期，中证1000股指期货涨势明显，引发市场高度关注。这一上涨背后，有着多层面的驱动因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从政策角度来看，政策的大力扶持是重要推动力。央行传递出的宽松货币政策信号，如降准降息预期， 为市场注入了更多流动性，让投资者的风险偏好得以提升。同时，政府对新兴产业的扶持，给予创新补 贴、提供融资便利，而中证1000指数中新兴产业占比较高，众多成分股企业受益，推动指数上行，进而 带动股指期货上涨。 从产业发展层面，当下科技产业变革浪潮中，人工智能、半导体等领域取得突破。中证1000指数覆盖不 少这类领域的企业，产业崛起带动相关成分股股价攀升，成为股指期货上涨的关键动力。 再看资金流向与市场偏好，当前中证1000的市盈率处于历史较低分位，意味着有较大的估值修复空 ...

8月26日盘中，纸浆期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至5092.00元。截止发稿，纸浆主力合约 报5096.00元，跌幅0.66%。 新世纪期货：预计纸浆价格盘整为主 上一工作日现货市场价格横盘整理。针叶浆最新外盘价维持在720美元/吨，阔叶浆最新外盘价维持在 500美元/吨，成本对浆价支撑减弱。造纸行业盈利水平处于偏低水平，纸厂库存压力较大，对高价浆接 受度不高，需求处于淡季，刚需采买原料，利空于浆价。纸浆基本面呈现供需双弱格局，目前价格处于 关键点位，预计纸浆价格盘整为主。 新湖期货：浆价或低位盘整 新世纪期货 预计纸浆价格盘整为主 新湖期货 浆价或低位盘整 国信期货：纸浆可考虑逢低做多思路对待 国外浆厂生产相对正常，我国进口量平稳，港口库存依旧维持近年来相对高位，近期去库节奏有所加 快，需要关注港口库存拐点。新一轮外盘报价提涨，业者存有一定惜售挺价情绪，进口针叶浆现货市场 贸易商存试探性提涨现象，但下游纸厂利润水平承压，接受度有限，浆价小幅调整。8月下旬开始面临 淡旺季转换，采购情绪可能会发生变化，操作建议等待回调结束，可考虑逢低做多思路对待。 纸浆期货主力小幅下跌0.66%，对于后市行情如何，相 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 郑棉走势震荡偏强，白糖延续窄幅波动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约14120元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15100元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，现货基差CF01+980，较前一日变动-95；3128B棉全国均价15235元/吨， 较前一日变动-8元/吨，现货基差CF01+1115，较前一日变动-98。 近期市场资讯，为保障纺织企业加工贸易用棉需要，现就2025年棉花关税配额外优惠关税税率加工贸易进口配额 （以下简称"滑准税加工贸易配额"）申领有关事项公布如下。2025年棉花进口滑准税加工贸易配额总量为20万吨， 实行凭合同申领的方式发放。当配额发放数量累计达到配额总量，将停止接收企业申请。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，8月USDA大幅下调全球棉花产量及期末库存，供需格局直接由偏松转为偏紧。 然而USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，而且今年各主产国供应端天气的叙事性不足，美棉产区旱情 也相对稳定，减产预期能否兑现还有待观察。不过美棉平衡表有望较此前明显改善， ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/26 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货后续走势分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 在价格破位下行的背景下，投资者面临两难抉择：是该抓住"跌出的做多黄金坑" ，还是屈服于空头反 扑的压力？我们选择了低多玻璃，今天玻璃继续上涨，看好后续玻璃市场。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 空头反扑的核心支撑：供需失衡与库存较高。 做多机会的潜在信号：成本底线与预期转向。 从另一个角度看，当前玻璃期货2601价格的下跌或许正孕育着做多机会。物极必反。 一方面，价格已接近沙河地区交割品生产成本，继续下跌可能引发企业挺价行为。企业为了维持利润空 间，在价格触及成本线附近时，往往会采取减产、限产等措施，减少市场供应，从而对价格形成支撑 。 另一方面，从技术分析角度，玻璃2601合约成交量缩量明显，从技术形态上看，当前位置不具备大幅下 跌的基础，反而有迎来反抽的可能性。 从中间盘整处下跌的幅度相比高位下跌 ...

上周美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定压力。国内方面，郑糖震荡。产销方面，今年销 售节奏较快，库存同比减少，现货压力相对较轻。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向进口和下榨季的估产。今年搪浆进口 量大幅减少,国产糖的销售压力较小。不过,25/26榨季的产量预期存在不确定性,如果后期降雨不足可能会导致减产，关注后 续天气情况和甘蔗长势。 (苹果) 期价震荡。早熟苹果价格基本持稳、好货价格较高，客商采购积极性较好。冷库苹果方面，剩余货量不多，市场需求一般。库 存方面,卓创的数据显示,截止到8月22日,全国冷库苹果库存为40.42万吨,同比成少51.84%。上周全国冷库苹果去阵量为 5.71万吨，同比下降21.13%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向新李度的估产。今年西部产区受到实潮和花期大风的影 响，但是低温对产量的影响不太,主要增加了果锈的风险。另 ...

截至2025年8月22日当周，纸浆期货主力合约收于5108元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持27907 手。 本周（8月18日-8月22日）市场上看，纸浆期货周内开盘报5316元/吨，最高触及5316元/吨，最低下探至 5076元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-3.33%。 消息面回顾： 截止2025年8月21日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量为213.2万吨，较上期累库3.3万吨，环比上涨 1.6%，库存量在本周期呈现累库的走势。 8月21日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单233798吨，环比上个交易日减少601吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单18240 吨，环比上个交易日持平。 智利Arauco公司公布新一轮8月木浆外盘报价：针叶浆银星720美元/吨；本色浆金星590美元/吨；阔叶浆 明星520美元/吨，整体较6月报价持稳。 机构观点汇总： 建信期货：整体仍未摆脱需求淡季氛围，纸厂加工利润未有明显好转。有待基本面进一步改善，纸浆承 压运行。 西南期货：供应收缩预期主导情绪。国际浆厂主动减产，Suzano、Bracell等巨头宣布减产或转产，叠加 外盘报价提涨20美元/吨，成本支撑增强，理论上支撑当下阶段的纸浆市场走势。但需求边际改善但持 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 近期市场资讯，据印度有关机构消息，印度全国播种进度落后于去年同期。截至8月15日，印度新年度棉花播种面 积达1080万公顷（约16200万亩），较去年同期1110万公顷（约16650万亩）减少约2.7%。据马托格罗索州农业经济 学研究所(IMEA)数据显示，截至8月15日，该州采摘进度环比提升13个百分点至40.0%，同比（57.0%）落后17.0 个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA调减全球棉花产量及期末库存，其中美棉产量大幅下调，全球供需格局 直接由偏松转为了偏紧，报告利多棉价，发布之后美棉主力应声上涨。不过目前来看美棉产区天气并未出现明显 异常，其他主产国今年供应端天气的叙事性也不足，市场对偏紧格局仍存怀疑，此次产量调减或无法对棉价形成 有利支撑，ICE美棉冲高后又小幅回落维持震荡态势，预计暂难突破震荡区间。国内方面，郑棉在外盘上涨带动下 本周连续震荡上行。7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，供应趋 紧预期短期对棉价形成较强支撑。不过当前下游需求仍偏弱，纱厂仍处于降开机和累库的过程中，棉价上方压力 仍 ...

纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/22 SP主力合约收盘价： 5130.00 | 日期 | 2025/08/21 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 2025/08/18 | 2025/08/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5130.00 | 5136.00 | 5178.00 | 5252.00 | 5306.00 | | 折美元价 | 623.85 | 624.46 | 629.40 | 638.77 | 645.15 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.11682% | -0.81112% | -1.40899% | -1.01772% | -0.22565% | | 山东银星基差 | 670 | 674 | 672 | 598 | 544 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 685 | 704 | 707 | 633 | 579 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

纸浆日报 行业 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.c ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].