1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season, with the northern hemisphere entering the key planting period. In China, there is a significant increase in consumption due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, and the inventory at the end of the year may still be tight. The medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to continue to move up, but the short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar remains strong, and the domestic sugar is in a stage of inventory accumulation with higher - than - expected production increase. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below due to the Middle East situation [6][7] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand in China is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the port inventory in China remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - US cotton inspection: From March 20th to 26th, 2025/26, the US graded and inspected 0.37 million tons of cotton, with 82.2% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 3.0544 million tons, with 81.7% meeting the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The Middle East conflict causes large fluctuations in oil prices, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs to be monitored. The global supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production increased significantly, but the consumption increase due to downstream spindle capacity expansion is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The domestic new crop is expected to reduce production, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to move up [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, the reduction range of planting area, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton yesterday, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Brazil's sugar production: In the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 552,000 tons; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 million tons. From the 2025/26 season to the first half of March, the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons [4][5] Market Analysis - International: The raw sugar remains in a strong pattern. Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil may further decrease, and the short - term external market is greatly affected by the international situation. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvesting progress is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory. The domestic sugar import volume from January to February also increased significantly year - on - year [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below. Treat it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the past two years, the overseas new production capacity has been limited, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: In the past two years, a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China, but the terminal effective demand is insufficient. The raw material procurement of downstream paper mills is cautious. The port inventory in China remains at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to increase marginally [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, the port inventory is difficult to reduce, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Sugar**: The global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season has improved. The international raw sugar price has strengthened due to factors such as the high - price of Brazilian ethanol and the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in India. In China, the sugar production is expected to slow down as southern sugar mills start to shut down, and the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [4]. - **Pulp**: The game between buyers and sellers in the wood pulp spot market continues. The downstream demand for finished paper is approaching the peak season, but the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost - side support for pulp has increased, but the upward drive for pulp prices is limited in the short term. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [4][5]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The start - up rate of double - offset paper has rebounded after the Spring Festival, but the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The cost - side upward drive is not strong. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short term, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the range [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market has limited new negative factors, and the domestic market is digesting the negative news of increased imports. The medium - term support for cotton prices remains, and the futures price is expected to enter a support range and return to a relatively strong shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Apple**: The decline in apple futures prices is mainly due to differences in the value of taking delivery. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption - side support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a low - level weak shock. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and for long - position holders, it is recommended to buy protective put options at the same time. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - **Apple 2605**: Return to wait - and - see. The supply - side support remains, but the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price continues to fluctuate in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [18]. - **Jujube 2605**: Short - term buy on dips. The expected reduction in production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to reach its peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [18]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - **Sugar 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved. The southern sugar mills in China are starting to shut down, and the supply - demand fundamentals are improving, but the supply is still sufficient. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [18]. - **Pulp 2605**: Short on rallies. The rise in the outer - market price of broad - leaf pulp has driven the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs to be verified, and the improvement in the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [18]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Range operation. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [18]. - **Cotton 2605**: Hold long positions cautiously. The significant increase in imported cotton and cotton yarn has put short - term pressure on the market, but the outer - market has stabilized and rebounded, and the medium - term upward trend of the futures price remains unchanged. The support range is 14900 - 15000, and the pressure range is 16300 - 16500 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In January 2026, the export volume of fresh apples was about 99,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.14% and a year - on - year increase of 9.44%. In February, it was about 79,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. As of March 25, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 4.4179 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 266,400 tons. As of March 26, it was 3.8947 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 294,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 217,900 tons [19]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in stock is stable, and the trading volume in cold storage is average. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume for the Tomb - sweeping Festival is acceptable. In the sales area, the arrival of goods is stable, the overall sales speed is average, and the mainstream price is stable [19][20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,700 tons, a decrease of 117 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year increase of 7.39%. The downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is stable [22]. - **Sugar Market**: In the first half of March, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 29.67% year - on - year, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 25.27 percentage points year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 88.60% year - on - year. In India, the sugar - making work in the 2025/26 season in the state of Maharashtra is coming to an end. In Thailand, as of March 25, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 8.81% year - on - year, and the sugar production increased by 12.01% year - on - year. As of March 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped also decreased. India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the same period last year. As of March 30, 25/26 season in Guangxi, 37 sugar mills have shut down, with a shutdown capacity of 332,000 tons per day [24]. - **Pulp Market**: After the Spring Festival, Chinese buyers returned to the market. The price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton in February, and sellers announced another price increase of $20 per ton in March, which led to cautious waiting and watching by buyers. The terminal users' resistance sentiment intensified, the domestic market trading was weak, many factories shut down, and the port inventory increased by 205,000 tons [27]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points week - on - week. The industry's overall inventory - reduction speed decreased. This week, the start - up load rate of double - offset paper was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points week - on - week [28]. - **Cotton Market**: As of March 29, 2026, 1,100 cotton processing enterprises in the 2025 cotton year processed and carried out notarized inspection on cotton, with an inspection quantity of 33,712,814 bales and an inspection weight of 7.61 million tons. From March 20 to 26, 2026, the United States graded and inspected 3,700 tons of cotton in the 2025/26 season, and 82.2% of the lint met the delivery requirements of ICE cotton futures [29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9863 | - 104 | - 1.04% | | Jujube 2605 | 8775 | - 95 | - 1.07% | | Sugar 2605 | 5441 | - 23 | - 0.42% | | Pulp 2605 | 5182 | - 20 | - 0.38% | | Cotton 2605 | 15385 | - 10 | - 0.06% | [30] - **Spot Market Review** | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5460 | 0 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5180 | - 40 | - 1300 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16823 | 9 | 1959 | [35] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no text description of the basis situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1100 | - 100 | 1006 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 385 | - 35 | - 80 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 26 | - 3 | - 127 | Oscillate | Wait - and - see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 130 | 5 | 15 | Oscillate weakly | Short on rallies | [55] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no text description of the futures position situation, only relevant figure references are provided. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 4273 | 0 | - 2341 | | Sugar | 16862 | 520 | - 10548 | | Pulp | 188163 | 2601 | - 187102 | | Cotton | 12435 | 1 | 3160 | [87] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no text description of the option - related data, only relevant figure references are provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: International factors such as high - priced Brazilian ethanol and potentially lower Indian sugar production improve the global sugar supply - demand situation. In China, with southern sugar mills starting to finish the crushing season, the domestic sugar market fundamentals are also improving. Zhengzhou sugar futures may rise in a wide - range oscillation [3]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is in a state of buyer - seller game. Although the downstream demand for finished paper has improved in the peak season, the positive impact of seasonal demand fluctuations is not obvious. The cost support has increased, but the weak fundamentals remain. The pulp price may rebound in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [3]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The operating rate is rising, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost - side driving force is not strong, and the supply is still relatively loose. It is expected to maintain a range - bound arrangement in the short - term, and the rebound height is limited [4]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector** - **Apple**: The decline in apple futures prices is due to market differences in delivery value. The supply side has medium - term support, but the consumption side lacks driving force. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [6]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price has rebounded from the bottom and then entered a narrow - range oscillation. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. The futures - spot price difference has been alleviated. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different positions [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Recommend to reduce or exit long positions at high prices. The supply side has medium - term support, but the marginal driving force is decreasing, and the futures price fluctuates in a high - level range. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [15]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend to reduce short positions. The agricultural products are rebounding from the low level, and the jujube spot inventory is reaching its peak and then declining. The support range is 8900 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9300 - 9700 [15]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend to hold long positions with a light position. The supply - demand fundamentals are improving, and the supply pressure in China is weakening. The support range is 5250 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5650 [15]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend to short at high prices. Although there is bottom support, the upward space is limited due to high inventory and weak fundamentals. The support range is 5000 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400 [15]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Recommend range - bound operation. The spot market improvement is limited, and the cost - side driving force is general. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605 closed at 9967, with a weekly decline of 754 and a decline rate of 7.03%. - Jujube 2605 closed at 8870, with a weekly increase of 30 and an increase rate of 0.34%. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5464, with a weekly increase of 25 and an increase rate of 0.46%. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5202, with a weekly increase of 38 and an increase rate of 0.74%. - Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4308, with a weekly increase of 212 and an increase rate of 5.18% [16]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per catty, with no change compared to the previous period and an increase of 0.55 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, with a decrease of 0.10 yuan compared to the previous period and a decrease of 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar is 5460 yuan per ton, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 705 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) is 5180 yuan, with a decrease of 40 yuan compared to the previous period and a decrease of 1300 yuan year - on - year [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for jujube, sugar, and pulp main - continuous contracts, but no specific data analysis is given [29][31][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The report provides spread data charts for apples, jujubes, and sugar in different months, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change compared to the previous period and the same as the same period last year. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 4273, an increase of 161 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 2198 compared to the same period last year. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 16342, with no change compared to the previous period and a decrease of 11068 compared to the same period last year. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 185562, a decrease of 1000 compared to the previous period and a decrease of 189546 compared to the same period last year [41]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - **Option Strategy Recommendation** - Apple 2605: Recommend to sell out - of - the - money put options. - Jujube 2605: Recommend to sell deep out - of - the - money call options. - Sugar 2605: Recommend to sell out - of - the - money put options [41]. - **Apple Option Data** The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility, but no specific data analysis is given [44]. - **Sugar Option Data** The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility, but no specific data analysis is given [45]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - **Apple** - **Production Area Weather**: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in apple - producing areas such as Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [48]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, Shandong and Shaanxi weekly apple storage inventory, but no specific data analysis is given [54]. - **Jujube** The report provides charts of jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [58]. - **Sugar** The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures price difference, but no specific data analysis is given [60]. - **Pulp** The report provides charts of domestic four - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, and production volume of various paper products, but no specific data analysis is given [64]. - **Double - offset Paper** The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific data analysis is given [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - There is no clear core view presented in the given content. The document mainly provides a table of futures and spot prices, along with related data such as basis rates and price differences for various commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - **Copper**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a 1.00% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6556, and the主力 contract price is 95380 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The主力基差率 is -0.38%, with a 0.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 23760, and the主力 contract price is 23795 [3]. - **Zinc**: The主力基差率 is -0.17%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 22920, and the主力 contract price is 22950 [3]. - **Lead**: The主力基差率 is -1.09%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16325, and the主力 contract price is 16485 [3]. - **Tin**: The主力基差率 is 1.52%, with a 2.13% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 357600, and the主力 contract price is 352250 [3]. - **Nickel**: The主力基差率 is 1.85%, with a 0.76% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 137800, and the主力 contract price is 135270 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The主力基差率 is 5.93%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9200, and the主力 contract price is 8530 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The主力基差率 is -0.64%, with a 0.60% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 157200, and the主力 contract price is 157920 [3]. - **Gold**: The主力基差率 is 0.05%, with a -0.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1014.44, and the主力 contract price is 1011.04 [3]. - **Silver**: The主力基差率 is 0.06%, with a -0.42% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 18121, and the主力 contract price is 18174 [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The主力基差率 is 2.81%, with a 0.42% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3220, and the主力 contract price is 3132 [3]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The主力基差率 is -1.00%, with a -0.88% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3280, and the主力 contract price is 3313 [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The主力基差率 is 4.97%, with a 2.63% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 846.6, and the主力 contract price is 806.5 [3]. - **Coke**: The主力基差率 is -8%, with a 0.56% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1625, and the主力 contract price is 1776 [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The主力基差率 is 0.52%, with a 0.68% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1247.5, and the主力 contract price is 1241 [3]. - **Steam Coal**: The主力基差率 is -5.7%, with a 0.75% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 755, and the主力 contract price is 801.4 [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The主力基差率 is -7.03%, with a -0.80% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5660, and the主力 contract price is 6166 [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The主力基差率 is -5.2%, with a -0.18% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6150, and the主力 contract price is 6492 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The主力基差率 is -0.97%, with a -1.39% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 14350, and the主力 contract price is 14490 [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The主力基差率 is 8.80%, with a -1.30% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3190, and the主力 contract price is 2932 [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The主力基差率 is 9.88%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2570, and the主力 contract price is 2371 [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a -1.22% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8820, and the主力 contract price is 8480 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The主力基差率 is 5.39%, with a -0.90% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10230, and the主力 contract price is 9707 [3]. - **Peanut**: The主力基差率 is 10.00%, with a 0.43% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8136 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The主力基差率 is 0.42%, with a -1.20% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9510, and the主力 contract price is 9510 [3]. - **Corn**: The主力基差率 is 1.01%, with a 0.09% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2400, and the主力 contract price is 2376 [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The主力基差率 is 4.96%, with a 0.34% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2900, and the主力 contract price is 2763 [3]. - **Apple**: The主力基差率 is not provided, with a 0.80% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8500, and the主力 contract price is 9978 [3]. - **Egg**: The主力基差率 is -6.136%, with a -0.25% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3200, and the主力 contract price is 3410 [3]. - **Live Pig**: The主力基差率 is -3.3%, with a -0.37% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9650, and the主力 contract price is 12595 [3]. - **Cotton**: The主力基差率 is 8.94%, with a -1.03% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16711, and the主力 contract price is 15340 [3]. Soft Commodities - **Sugar**: The主力基差率 is 0.94%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5480, and the主力 contract price is 5429 [3]. - **Methanol**: The主力基差率 is 0.92%, with a -2.14% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 3118, and the主力 contract price is 2883 [3]. - **Ethanol**: The主力基差率 is -1.21%, with a -0.06% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4975, and the主力 contract price is 5036 [3]. - **PTA**: The主力基差率 is -1.40%, with a -0.44% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 6500, and the主力 contract price is 6592 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The主力基差率 is 3.62%, with a 3.23% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 9000, and the主力 contract price is 8975 [3]. - **Styrene**: The主力基差率 is -1.04%, with a -3.2% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 10000, and the主力 contract price is 10105 [3]. - **Short Fiber**: The主力基差率 is -0.12%, with a -3.10% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8100, and the主力 contract price is 8008 [3]. - **Plastic**: The主力基差率 is -0.40%, with a -3.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8680, and the主力 contract price is 8715 [3]. - **PVC**: The主力基差率 is -1.46%, with a -2.77% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5620, and the主力 contract price is 5703 [3]. - **Rubber**: The主力基差率 is -0.79%, with a -0.02% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 16300, and the主力 contract price is 16430 [3]. - **20 -号胶**: The主力基差率 is 1.93%, with a -1.07% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 13827, and the主力 contract price is 13565 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The主力基差率 is -1.61%, with a 0.01% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1224, and the主力 contract price is 1244 [3]. - **Urea**: The主力基差率 is -0.16%, with a 0.05% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 1860, and the主力 contract price is 1863 [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The主力基差率 is 2.37%, with a -2.69% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 8300, and the主力 contract price is 8108 [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The主力基差率 is 0.26%, with a 0.26% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5238, and the主力 contract price is 5224 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The主力基差率 is -6.11%, with a -1.41% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 675.4, and the主力 contract price is 723.9 [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 9.44%, with a -2.38% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4758, and the主力 contract price is 4348 [3]. - **Asphalt**: The主力基差率 is -2.94%, with a -2.24% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4280, and the主力 contract price is 4410 [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The主力基差率 is 15.83%, with a -10.34% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 5976, and the主力 contract price is 5159 [3]. - **LPG**: The主力基差率 is 9.89%, with a 6.06% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7198, and the主力 contract price is 6550 [3]. Stock Index - **CSI 300**: The主力基差率 is 1.97%, with a 0.00% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 4537.5, and the主力 contract price is 4505.6 [3]. - **SSE 50**: The主力基差率 is 1.04%, with a 0.32% increase compared to yesterday. The spot price is 2859.5, and the主力 contract price is 2848 [3]. - **CSI 500**: The主力基差率 is 3.16%, with a 0.62% change compared to yesterday. The spot price is 7767.7, and the主力 contract price is 7685.6 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report provides a weekly overview of futures price and volume data for various commodity categories, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20 - day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of each futures variety. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold: The weekly closing price was 998.66, with a weekly decline of 4.16%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.42%, a volatility increase of 56.31%, speculation degree of 3.36, trend degree of - 0.16, and a capital outflow of 148.28 [2]. - Silver: The weekly closing price was 17,489.00, with a weekly decline of 0.77%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 92.24%, a volatility increase of 9.26%, speculation degree of 4.69, trend degree of - 0.01, and a capital outflow of 11.14 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The weekly closing price was 95,930.00, with a weekly increase of 1.26%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 22.36%, a volatility increase of 12.87%, speculation degree of 0.78, trend degree of - 0.07, and a capital outflow of 38.01 [2]. - Nickel: The weekly closing price was 137,100.00, with a weekly increase of 2.96%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 21.07%, a volatility decrease of 16.68%, speculation degree of 2.30, trend degree of 0.09, and a capital inflow of 15.03 [2]. - Tin: The weekly closing price was 362,460.00, with a weekly increase of 5.76%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 58.97%, a volatility decrease of 21.82%, speculation degree of 10.12, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital inflow of 3.39 [2]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The weekly closing price was 812.00, with a weekly decline of 0.43%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.63%, a volatility decrease of 4.06%, speculation degree of 0.60, trend degree of 0.06, and a capital inflow of 3.38 [2]. - Coke: The weekly closing price was 1,752.00, with a weekly increase of 0.66%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 32.76%, a volatility increase of 22.23%, speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of - 0.19, and a capital inflow of 3.87 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weekly closing price was 1,219.00, with a weekly increase of 4.10%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 47.56%, a volatility increase of 44.94%, speculation degree of 2.91, trend degree of 0.02, and a capital inflow of 23.74 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The weekly closing price was 740.80, with a weekly decline of 4.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 119.65%, a volatility increase of 8.61%, speculation degree of 2.50, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 33.39 [2]. - Fuel Oil LU: The weekly closing price was 4,464.00 (5,157.00), with a weekly decline of 6.14% (- 7.78%), 20 - day annualized volatility of 99.40% (106.40%), a volatility increase of 14.65% (13.49%), speculation degree of 3.11 (1.95), trend degree of 0.08 (0.01), and a capital outflow of 18.59 (7.27) [2]. - Methanol: The weekly closing price was 3,296.00, with a weekly increase of 5.24%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 80.52%, a volatility increase of 5.60%, speculation degree of 3.38, trend degree of 0.30, and a capital inflow of 16.58 [2]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The weekly closing price was 15,395.00, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.10%, a volatility decrease of 38.17%, speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.21, and a capital inflow of 3.83 [2]. - Sugar: The weekly closing price was 5,464.00, with a weekly increase of 0.46%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 10.71%, a volatility decrease of 5.49%, speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.20, and a capital inflow of 2.13 [2]. - Corn: The weekly closing price was 2,369.00, with a weekly decline of 0.75%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 8.80%, a volatility increase of 35.16%, speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital outflow of 0.41 [2]. Forest Products - Pulp: The weekly closing price was 5,202.00, with a weekly increase of 0.74%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 15.83%, a volatility decrease of 3.70%, speculation degree of 1.56, trend degree of 0.07, and a capital outflow of 8.97 [2]. Livestock Products - Eggs: The weekly closing price was 3,502.00, with a weekly increase of 2.73%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.48%, a volatility increase of 20.23%, speculation degree of 1.22, trend degree of 0.26, and a capital inflow of 2.72 [2]. - Hogs: The weekly closing price was 9,965.00, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 17.84%, a volatility decrease of 1.77%, speculation degree of 0.80, trend degree of - 0.20, and a capital inflow of 11.64 [2]. Financial Futures - IC: The weekly closing price was 7,559.20, with no weekly change, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.33%, a volatility increase of 20.48%, speculation degree of 0.68, trend degree of 0.05, and a capital inflow of 3.18 [4]. - IF: The weekly closing price was 4,427.40, with a weekly decline of 1.32%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 18.01%, a volatility increase of 22.49%, speculation degree of 0.44, trend degree of 0.03, and a capital outflow of 18.92 [4]. - IM: The weekly closing price was 7,523.80, with a weekly decline of 0.48%, 20 - day annualized volatility of 29.45%, a volatility increase of 33.07%, speculation degree of 0.77, trend degree of 0.04, and a capital outflow of 20.00 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation, and there are uncertainties in various sectors, with different trends and investment suggestions for each commodity [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw all - round gains in treasury bond futures. The current macro data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum is weak. The yield is at a relatively low level, and there is pressure in the later market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The asset valuation is low, and there is room for repair. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The global economic situation is affected by the Middle - East conflict, and inflation expectations are rising. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper contract declined. The supply shortage logic is still strong, but the macro - environment suppresses prices. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak shock with a bottom [56]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum contract rose, and the alumina contract declined. The alumina supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the electrolytic aluminum price may be weakly volatile with support at the bottom [58]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc contract rose. The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, but the consumption is affected by the real - estate sector. The zinc price may be under pressure [61]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead contract declined. The supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price may be weakly volatile [63]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin contract declined. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The tin price has support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [65]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel contract declined. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [66]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The CFTC net long position increased, but the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the prices of PP and LLDPE in the market changed. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the price is expected to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The current main contradiction is cost - driven, and the short - term price may maintain a strong shock [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, the natural rubber contract rose. The market is in a game between multiple and short factors, and the short - term is in a wide - range shock [30]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract declined. The market is in a game between cost support and high inventory. The price is expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside space is restricted [32]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract rose. The current contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price is weakly volatile, and the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are repaired, and the price may be in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to operate carefully [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The supply increases, and the downstream reduces production. The short - term is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to operate carefully [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply and demand are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price needs to be treated carefully [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increases, and the demand weakens. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and device dynamics [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals change little, and it is recommended to participate carefully [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is general, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate [45]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract declined. The production line is shrinking, the inventory removal slows down, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [47]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract declined. The supply decreases slightly, the inventory does not decrease significantly, and the price is affected by exports [49]. - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, the paper - pulp contract declined. The inventory accumulates, and the demand is weak, restricting the rebound height [52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil contracts rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rebounded. The export data is strong, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to consider closing long positions [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil contracts changed. The market is waiting for relevant announcements and paying attention to the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the domestic cotton contract oscillated. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The medium - long - term price has support, but the short - term is affected by the quota issuance [72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the domestic sugar contract oscillated. The international situation is favorable, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The medium - long - term price has a bottom support [74]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract oscillated. With the Qingming Festival approaching, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong [76]. - **Pork**: The previous trading day, the pork contract declined. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The supply is improving, and it is recommended to wait and see [79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn contract declined, and the corn - starch contract rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand recovers slightly [80]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The inventory decreases, the downstream demand improves, and the market is affected by the geopolitical situation [82].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market volatility of various assets is expected to increase due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation. Different investment strategies are recommended for different assets, such as being cautious for bonds, temporarily staying on the sidelines for stocks and precious metals, and considering short - selling opportunities for some commodities [5][9][11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Bonds - **Performance**: The 30 - year and 2 - year Treasury futures rose 0.01% and 0.02% respectively, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts were flat. As of the end of February, the total installed power generation capacity was 3.95 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power growing significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is still some pressure in the future market. It is recommended to be cautious [5][6]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.61%, 0.81%, 2.17%, and 1.73% respectively. As of the end of February, the total scale of public funds reached 38.61 trillion yuan [7]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - **Performance**: The gold and silver futures rose 3.49% and 6.01% respectively. The European Central Bank is evaluating the impact of the Iranian war [11]. - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11][12]. 4. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and hot - rolled coil were 2980 yuan/ton, 3110 - 3230 yuan/ton, and 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The real estate industry is in a downward trend, but the market is entering the peak demand season. The supply pressure is reduced, and the inventory pressure is small. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - **Performance**: The iron ore futures fell significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 785 yuan/ton and 670 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The iron ore demand may increase, but the inventory is at a high level. The price may rebound, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - buying opportunities [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: The coking coal and coke futures fell significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The Middle East conflict has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal may increase, and the demand for coke is expected to expand. The price may continue to be strong, and investors can pay attention to low - position buying opportunities [18][19]. 7. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell 1.04% and 0.36% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The cost is at a low level, and the supply is loose. The overall surplus pressure continues. After the short - term price rises, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. 8. Crude Oil - **Performance**: The INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data showed that speculators increased their net long positions. The number of oil and gas rigs decreased [22]. - **Outlook**: The increase in net long positions indicates that the market is bullish on the future. However, the possible cease - fire between the US and Iran may lead to oil price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [22][23][24]. 9. Polyolefins - **Performance**: The PP and LLDPE prices in the market fell, and the market sentiment was cautious [24]. - **Outlook**: Due to the geopolitical situation, the cost pressure increased, and the supply decreased. The demand was weak. The price is expected to fall, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [24][25]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: The synthetic rubber futures rose 4.27%. The price of butadiene decreased, and the inventory began to decline [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to device maintenance, oil price trends, and tire export orders [26][27][28]. 11. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: The natural rubber futures rose. The price of Thai glue was high, and the inventory continued to increase [29]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of long - short game, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [29][30]. 12. PVC - **Performance**: The PVC futures fell 4.58%. The spot price decreased, and the inventory increased [31]. - **Outlook**: The cost support is strong, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. The price is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory changes and demand recovery [31][32][33]. 13. Urea - **Performance**: The urea futures fell 0.32%. The spot price was stable [34]. - **Outlook**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and demand connection [34][35]. 14. PX - **Performance**: The PX futures fell 3.67%. The profit and spread decreased [36]. - **Outlook**: The short - term processing fee has room for repair. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [36][37]. 15. PTA - **Performance**: The PTA futures fell 3.09%. The processing fee was around 300 yuan/ton [38]. - **Outlook**: The supply decreased, and the demand was weak. The market is in a long - short game, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [38]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: The ethylene glycol futures fell 4.96%. The inventory increased [39]. - **Outlook**: The inventory may decrease, but the cost is uncertain. It is necessary to pay attention to negotiation progress and spring inspection [39]. 17. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: The short - fiber futures fell 2.94%. The supply decreased, and the demand was weak [40]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and downstream factory resumption [40]. 18. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: The bottle - chip futures fell 2.43%. The processing fee was around 1200 yuan/ton [41]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little. The processing fee is recovering, but the raw material price is uncertain. It is recommended to operate cautiously [41]. 19. Soda Ash - **Performance**: The soda ash futures rose 0.32%. The production increased, and the inventory decreased [42][43]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, and the price is expected to remain high and consolidate [43]. 20. Glass - **Performance**: The glass futures fell 0.94%. The production line decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly [46]. - **Outlook**: The cost support exists, and the market sentiment may fluctuate [46]. 21. Caustic Soda - **Performance**: The caustic soda futures fell 3.06%. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise due to export and cost factors. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas device dynamics and inventory changes [47][48]. 22. Pulp - **Performance**: The pulp futures rose 0.04%. The port inventory decreased, and the production increased [49]. - **Outlook**: The inventory decline supports the price, and the market sentiment is expected to stabilize [49]. 23. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: The lithium carbonate futures rose 4.34%. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped [50][51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is tight, and the demand is improving. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [51]. 24. Copper - **Performance**: The copper futures rose 1.11%. The inflation expectations and geopolitical situation suppress the price, but the supply is tight, and the demand has a bottom [52]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with a bottom [52][53]. 25. Aluminum - **Performance**: The aluminum futures fell 0.13%, and the alumina futures fell 0.98%. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and the inventory increases [54][55]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly with support [55][56]. 26. Zinc - **Performance**: The zinc futures rose 0.35%. The supply increases, and the demand in the real estate sector is weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be under pressure [57][58]. 27. Lead - **Performance**: The lead futures fell 0.09%. The supply of primary lead increases, and the demand is weak [59][60]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [60][61]. 28. Tin - **Performance**: The tin futures rose 0.69%. The supply is tight, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong [62]. - **Outlook**: The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [62]. 29. Nickel - **Performance**: The nickel futures rose 1.33%. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is weak [63][64]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply is in surplus, and it is necessary to pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - events [63][64]. 30. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: The soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing well, and the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase [65]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66]. 31. Palm Oil - **Performance**: The palm oil price fell. The export increased, and the inventory is at a high level [67][68]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider closing long positions [67][68][69]. 32. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: The rapeseed futures rose. The import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory decreased [70]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 33. Cotton - **Performance**: The cotton futures fluctuated. The import increased, and the global cotton production is expected to decrease [72][73]. - **Outlook**: The long - term price has support, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance [73][74]. 34. Sugar - **Performance**: The domestic sugar futures fluctuated, and the international sugar futures fell. The domestic import increased, and the production is expected to increase [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The international situation is favorable for the price, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term price has a bottom [76][77]. 35. Apple - **Performance**: The apple futures fluctuated. The inventory decreased, and the production is expected to decrease [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be stable and strong during the Qingming Festival, and it is necessary to pay attention to inventory and weather [78][79]. 36. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The live - pig futures fell 0.55%. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak [80]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions lightly [80]. 37. Eggs - **Performance**: The egg futures fell 0.06%. The production cost increased, and the inventory is at a high level [81][82]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. 38. Corn and Starch - **Performance**: The corn and starch futures fell. The inventory of North Port is low, and the demand is slightly improved [83][84]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. The starch may be slightly stronger than corn. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - term put options [84][85]. 39. Logs - **Performance**: The log futures fell 0.67%. The inventory decreased, and the demand improved [86][87]. - **Outlook**: The supply may shrink due to price and cost factors. The market is affected by the geopolitical situation [87][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries show different trends, and investors need to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to specific situations [5][8][10] - Some industries may face price fluctuations and uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, while others are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [13][15][18] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.52% to 111.240 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.02% to 108.165 yuan, the 5 - year main contract was flat at 105.915 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% to 102.478 yuan [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.41%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 1.66%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 2.72%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 3.09% [7] - The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but asset valuations are low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [8][9] 3.3 Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 977.28 with a 3.97% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 17,085 with a 10.86% increase [10] - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [10][11] 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,990 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,120 - 3,240 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,280 - 3,300 yuan/ton [12] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [13][14] 3.5 Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The PB powder port spot price was 795 yuan/ton, and the Super Special powder spot price was 680 yuan/ton [15] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may support prices, but the impact may be limited. From a technical perspective, iron ore futures may rebound in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [15][16] 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated at high levels [17] - In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices emotionally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. For coking coal, the supply may increase, and attention should be paid to the pressure. For coke, the supply is stable, and the increase in demand supports prices. From a technical perspective, coking coal and coke futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can focus on low - position long - entry opportunities and pay attention to position management [18][19] 3.7 Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.43% to 6,480 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.20% to 6,100 yuan/ton. The Tianjin manganese - silicon spot price rose 80 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - iron price rose 80 yuan/ton to 5,680 yuan/ton [20] - The cost of ferroalloys has limited downward space, and the overall oversupply pressure continues. The recent improvement in profitability in the main production areas weakens the cost support. The short - term surplus of silicon - iron may increase, and the inventory continues to accumulate [20] 3.8 Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply due to the US delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and the possibility of negotiations between the US and Iran [21] - The increase in net long positions in CFTC futures and options shows that US funds are more optimistic about the future of crude oil. However, the situation of the US - Israel - Iran war has changed, and the US and Iran may cease fire for a month for negotiations. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for INE crude oil [22][23] 3.9 Polyolefins - Last trading day, the Hangzhou PP market mostly declined, and the Yuyao LLDPE market also fell [24] - Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the cost pressure has increased, the futures fluctuate frequently, and the industry's operating rate has continued to decline. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. It is recommended to focus on short - entry opportunities for polyolefins [24][25] 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.06%. The mainstream price of butadiene rubber in Shandong remained stable at 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [26] - The current main contradiction is cost - driven. The short - term price may maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance in the second half of the month, the trend of crude oil prices, and changes in tire export orders [26][28] 3.11 Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.37%, and the 20 - number rubber main contract rose 2.27%. The Shanghai spot price of whole - latex increased to around 16,300 yuan/ton [29] - The current core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the approaching domestic production area opening and slow demand recovery and inventory pressure. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and the price may maintain a wide - range oscillation [29][30] 3.12 PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract fell 4.41%, and the spot price in the East China region decreased by 250 yuan/ton [31] - The current core contradiction is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts, the start of domestic spring demand, and high inventory. In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price may oscillate strongly, but the upward space is restricted by high inventory. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm and demand recovery strength [31][33] 3.13 Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.06%, and the spot price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,880 yuan/ton [34] - The recent main contradiction is between high supply and policy ceiling. The price oscillates weakly, but the cost support and the arrival of the demand peak season limit the downward space. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the export policy will be adjusted and the demand connection after April [34][35] 3.14 PX - Last trading day, the PX2605 main contract fell 4.22%. The PX profit has dropped significantly, and the PXN spread has dropped to around 65 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread has dropped to around 88 US dollars/ton [36] - Affected by the supply concerns of upstream raw materials, domestic refineries have reduced their loads. The short - term PXN spread and short - process profit are continuously compressed, and the processing fee has room for repair. The PX price may oscillate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended [36][37] 3.15 PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2605 main contract fell 4.15%. The PTA processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton [38] - Affected by the shrinkage of raw material supply, PTA production cuts have increased. The cost support has collapsed recently. The short - term is a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended, paying attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict and changes in crude oil prices [38] 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 6.23%. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 66.45%, and the inventory in some main ports in East China has increased [39][40] - The short - term Strait passage has loosened, and the import is expected to shrink. The inventory may gradually decrease, and there is support below. The short - term geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and cautious treatment is required, paying attention to the negotiation progress and Strait situation [40] 3.17 Short Fibers - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2606 main contract fell 3.28%. The short - fiber device load has slightly decreased [41] - Recently, the short - fiber supply has declined, and the terminal factory inventory has decreased. The overall supply - demand has weakened slightly. The short - term still trades based on the cost logic. Attention should be paid to the progress of the geopolitical situation, device dynamics, and the resumption progress of downstream factories [41] 3.18 Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle - chip 2605 main contract fell 3.38%. The bottle - chip processing fee is adjusted to around 1,200 yuan/ton [42] - The supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much, and the processing fee continues to repair. The manufacturer's price - holding intention is relatively strong. Due to the changeable Middle East situation, the price fluctuations of crude oil and PTA may increase. Cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the geopolitical situation, device operation dynamics, and cost changes [42][43] 3.19 Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of soda ash closed at 1,240 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase [44] - The supply of soda ash remains high, the inventory has decreased to some extent, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The short - term price may oscillate steadily under emotional support [44] 3.20 Glass - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of glass closed at 1,064 yuan/ton with a 1.12% decrease [45] - The glass production line continues to shrink, the inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and the downstream order recovery is slow. The cost support is still there, and the subsequent market sentiment may fluctuate [45][46] 3.21 Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,557 yuan/ton with a 1.27% decrease [47] - The supply of caustic soda has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The price of alumina has risen, which supports the price of caustic soda. The 50% and 32% caustic soda prices are bifurcated. Attention should be paid to overseas device dynamics, export order implementation, domestic inventory changes, and device maintenance progress [47][48] 3.22 Pulp - Last trading day, the main 2605 contract of pulp closed at 5,210 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase [49] - The port inventory of pulp continues to decrease, and the domestic supply has changed little. The market sentiment is expected to stabilize. The risk of needle - leaf pulp fluctuation is relatively large, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively stable with cost support [49] 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton [50] - The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the demand in the consumer end is improving. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support below, but the short - term fluctuation may increase. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict [50] 3.24 Copper - Last trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 94,670 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase [51] - The inflation expectation has almost erased the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the global risk preference is suppressed. The supply of refined copper is at risk of contraction, and the demand has a solid bottom. The copper market will continue the game between macro - suppression and fundamental resilience, showing a pattern of weak oscillation with a bottom [51][52] 3.25 Aluminum - Last trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,810 yuan/ton with a 0.42% increase, and the alumina main contract closed at 2,962 yuan/ton with a 2.18% decrease [53] - Alumina shows a cost - driven passive rebound, and electrolytic aluminum is under pressure in the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The price of alumina may enter an oscillatory adjustment state, and the price of electrolytic aluminum may oscillate weakly, but there is support at the bottom [53][55] 3.26 Zinc - Last trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,880 yuan/ton with a 0.52% decrease [56] - The global zinc ore increment is steadily released, and the domestic refined zinc production has increased. The real - estate sector may drag down the galvanizing field. The zinc price may be under pressure due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the strong - dollar logic [56][57] 3.27 Lead - Last trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,470 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase [58] - The production of primary lead enterprises is increasing, and the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises is delayed. The demand is flat, and the lead price may run weakly due to the lack of fundamental highlights and macro - pressure on the non - ferrous sector [58][59] 3.28 Tin - Last trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.81% to 348,620 yuan/ton [60] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The supply of refined tin is slightly eased, and the demand has short - term support. The short - term price of tin has support below, but the overseas situation is still highly uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [60][61] 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract fell 0.59% to 133,890 yuan/ton [62] - The US - Iran conflict has released a easing signal, and the market risk preference has recovered. The nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, and the cost is expected to rise. The downstream demand is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is still in an oversupply pattern. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [62] 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.60% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.97% to 8,594 yuan/ton [63] - Brazil's soybean harvest progress is over 60%, and the domestic soybean import has slowed down. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be relatively loose. The price of oil and meal may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [63][64] 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures are rising, but the risk of high - level oscillation and pull - back after reaching a high has significantly increased. In the coal price compensation stage, it is recommended to buy on dips [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is recommended to short on rallies. The stock index is expected to rise and then fall in the early trading session of the next day [7][8]. - For gold, after a rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [11]. - For iron ore, the terminal demand needs time to start, and long - position holders should protect their profits near the previous high [14]. - For glass, before the upper pressure is broken, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [18]. - For methanol, the strong market is expected to continue in the short term [22]. - For pulp, although there is still some downward space, there is also a certain bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - The coking coal main contract rose to 1250 yuan/ton, showing short - term strength [3]. - The core driving factor for the limit - up is that the Middle East geopolitical situation has raised the expectation of energy substitution, and the strong international oil and gas prices have driven up the coal price premium. If the conflict cannot be resolved in the short term, the coal supply - demand situation may change significantly [4]. - The suppressing factors and risk points include stable domestic coal mine production, high Mongolian coal imports, high total inventory, limited steel mill profits, and unimproved terminal demand. After the limit - up, the sentiment is over - heated, and the technical indicators are overbought [4]. - The operation reference is that the upper integer - level resistance is strong, and it is likely to oscillate when it first reaches it. One can go long after a stable pull - back. Strict risk control is required, and attention should be paid to geopolitical easing, restocking rhythm, and inventory data changes [5]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened higher, fell back, and then continued to strengthen in a volatile manner on Tuesday. Technically, it is expected to rise and then fall in the 5 - minute cycle of the early trading session of the next day. The operation suggestion is to short on rallies [7][8]. Gold - The red - green line of the gold daily - level chart turns bearish. After opening higher, it fell back again and showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. After a rebound, a bearish approach can be considered [11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - and long - term. The terminal demand needs time to start, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy and sentiment. Long - position holders should protect their profits near the previous high [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Before the upper pressure is broken, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset [18][19]. Methanol - In March, due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, enhanced linkage of energy and chemical products, a strong market sentiment, and the tense Middle East situation, the supply of China's main methanol imports has been significantly tightened, and the import cost has increased. The strong market of methanol futures is expected to continue in the short term [22]. Pulp - The current pulp futures price has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited, which has attracted some corporate customers to take over. The number of long - position customers has increased, and there is a certain bottom support. Attention should be paid to position control [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Investment rating for sugar: Neutral [6] - Investment rating for pulp: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand pattern in the current year is generally loose, but it is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the consumption increment due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity is obvious. The domestic new - crop has a production reduction expectation, and the medium - to - long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The international situation affects the sugar price. The new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, but the sufficient industrial supply limits the upside. In China, the sugarcane harvest is delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and the import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. The domestic demand for pulp is expected to improve compared with last year, but the port inventory remains high [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,280 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,592 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton. The US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection data shows that 83.3% of the 0.26 - million - ton graded cotton from March 13 to 19 met the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements, and 81.7% of the 3.0508 - million - ton cumulative graded cotton met the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The global supply - demand pattern is loose this year, but tightens in the 26/27 season. The northern hemisphere is entering the key planting period, with uncertainties in area reduction and weather. - Domestic: The 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, and the consumption increment is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The new - crop in Xinjiang has a production reduction expectation [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The short - term upside is limited by the internal - external price difference and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, planting area reduction, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5453 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5330 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. Pakistan extended the tax - free and low - tax policies for sugar imports until February 28, 2026 [4] Market Analysis - International: The US - Iran conflict continues to escalate, and the new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. The external market is greatly affected by the international situation, and the sufficient supply limits the upside. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, the industrial inventory is high, and the sugar import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] Strategy - Neutral. The continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens due to oversupply, but it is difficult to fall deeply under the influence of the Middle - East situation. Treat it with a shock - trading mindset in the short term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5188 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.46% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4825 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price continued to rise [7] Market Analysis - Supply: The overseas new - production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas softwood pulp mills have announced production - cut and production - conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: A large amount of finished - paper production capacity has been put into operation in China in the past two years, but the terminal demand is insufficient. The downstream paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp is expected to improve [7] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [8]