Core Viewpoint - The domestic market for methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) in China is experiencing significant growth due to technological advancements and increasing application demands, leading to a reduction in import dependency and an increase in production capacity and output [1][5]. Industry Overview - MIBK, also known as 4-methyl-2-pentanone, is a colorless liquid with a camphor-like odor, soluble in most organic solvents and slightly soluble in water. It has applications in organic synthesis, rubber manufacturing, and coatings [1]. - The production methods for MIBK include the acetone method and the isopropanol method, with the acetone method being more efficient for continuous production [2][3]. Production Capacity and Output - From 2016 to 2024, China's MIBK production capacity is projected to grow from 75,000 tons to 150,000 tons, while output is expected to increase from 54,000 tons to 120,000 tons [1][5]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trend due to the intensive commissioning of MIBK projects in the future [1]. Import and Export Dynamics - In 2024, China's MIBK imports are expected to be 9,167.5 tons with an import value of $12.51 million, while exports are projected at 3,654.21 tons valued at $5.68 million. By 2025, exports are anticipated to significantly exceed imports [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - Major global producers of MIBK include South Africa's Sasol, Korea's Kumho Petrochemical, and Japan's Mitsui Chemicals. Domestically, companies like Juhua Chemical, Ruibai New Materials, and Wanhua Chemical are key players in the market [7]. - Wanhua Chemical is expanding its MIBK production capacity, with a new project in Yantai expected to enhance its market position [7][8]. Industry Development Trends 1. **Green Development**: The MIBK industry is moving towards sustainable practices, focusing on reducing waste and emissions through advanced catalyst systems and resource recycling [9]. 2. **High-end Product Demand**: There is a growing demand for high-purity MIBK in sectors like new energy vehicles and high-end electronics, prompting companies to invest in R&D for better quality products [10]. 3. **International Expansion**: The industry is looking to expand into international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, to tap into the rising demand in manufacturing sectors [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the MIBK industry Core Insights - The MIBK market in May 2025 showed a weak downward trend, with production and profit both declining significantly [5][6][15] - The average profit for the MIBK industry was reported at -1058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.02% compared to the previous month [6][54] - The production volume for May was 1.29 million tons, down 5.84% from April [6][35] Summary by Sections Market Analysis and Forecast - The MIBK market experienced a weak trading atmosphere in May, with the average price in East China at 8818 yuan/ton, down 6.34% from April [5][15] - The supply of MIBK is expected to decrease slightly in June, with a forecasted production of around 1.25 million tons, a 3.10% decrease [21][30] - Demand remains weak, particularly in the tire industry, which is expected to limit MIBK consumption [24][31] Fundamental Analysis - MIBK production decreased in May, with a capacity utilization rate of 50.86%, down 4.95 percentage points from April [35][39] - The overall consumption of MIBK remained low, with downstream orders significantly affected [39][40] - Import volumes for MIBK were negligible, while exports saw a significant decrease in April [42][49] Profitability - The average profit for MIBK production in May was -1058 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant decline from the previous month [53][57] - The profitability of the MIBK industry is under pressure due to high costs and inventory levels [54][57] Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand gap for MIBK is projected to decrease slightly in June, with total demand remaining stable at 0.9 million tons [30][31] - The market sentiment among participants is mixed, with some expecting stability while others anticipate further declines due to weak demand [29][31]