戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）宏观情绪与政策扰动：近期盘面多受到"反内卷"相关消息的影响，驱动一些化工品低位反弹，在基本面有 改善前，以反弹看待。 2）现货供需相对平稳：本周供需差整体变动不大，供应端广州石化提负、劲海化工重启、青海盐湖关停，整 体开工及产量变动不大；需求端本周小幅增加，PP开工小幅下行，其他下游环氧丙烷开工小幅下行，正丁醇 小幅上行。山东市场，本周延续供增需减，价格承压下跌。 南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——关注装置变动 1.1 核心矛盾 4000 | 4000 | | | | 4000 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 04/01 | 07/01 | 10/01 | | 04/01 | 07/01 | 10/01 | | source： 南华 ...

当前，欧洲酚类产业链正承受前所未有的压力。在需求端，苯酚和丙酮以及衍生物需求暴跌;在供给 端，生产成本居高不下，欧洲生产商在全球竞争中苦苦挣扎，这些或将倒逼酚类产业链掀起产能调整浪 潮。 与此同时，全球苯酚产能仍在持续扩张，新增产能多集中于双酚A及其下游聚碳酸酯、环氧树脂的一体 化项目。数据显示，2024年至2029年，全球双酚A名义产能将从1150万吨攀升至近1330万吨。 受极具价格竞争力的亚洲进口产品冲击，截至12月，作为原料的双酚A现货价格已超过聚碳酸酯成品价 格。数据显示，2025年前9个月，欧洲自中国进口的聚碳酸酯数量同比激增近44%，部分进口产品已入 欧洲本地仓库，可随时投放市场。而自2024年8月以来，普氏能源资讯评估的聚碳酸酯挤出级产品价格 已累计下跌约38%。 而针对部分亚洲国家环氧树脂的反倾销税效果也令市场参与者感到失望，当前这类产品的现货价格已跌 破反倾销税征收前的水平。值得注意的是，当初联合奥林公司、斯波莱赫米公司提起反倾销申诉的三家 企业之一西湖化学，已于2025年退出欧洲市场。 随着2026年日益临近，欧洲酚类产业链及其上下游、周边市场将继续在产能合理化调整与贸易流向重构 的双重 ...

进入第四季度，国内甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA)产业链疲软运行，价格处于近年来低位。其中，华东、山 东等主要产销区的MMA价格已跌破9000元(吨价，下同)，创近五年历史新低。业内人士认为，受产业 链供强需弱格局短期难以改变、成本端支撑乏力等因素影响，MMA市场调整还将持续，预计未来一段 时间内仍维持低位运行态势。 价格中枢下行调整 本轮价格下行不仅体现在产品售价的持续走低，更压缩了产业链各环节的盈利空间。 在上游环节，据吉林石化销售人员何峻松介绍，丙酮所属的酚酮行业盈利能力从10月和11月的亏损200 ～300元，扩大至12月中旬的800～900元。核心因素在于原料纯苯、丙烯价格出现不同程度的上涨，而 成本传递不畅导致酚酮产业链利润空间被压缩。 在MMA环节，由于其工艺路线不同，盈利情况也呈现明显分化。占据国内MMA产能75%的丙酮氰醇法 (ACH法)虽未陷入亏损，但理论利润环比下跌超90%;而占比25%的新兴工艺碳四法利润一度跌至亏损 2000元左右，尽管目前局面略有改善，但仍未回到成本线以上。 不过，当前这种"下游吃肉、中上游喝汤"的利润分布不可持续。实际上，在PMMA的中低端通用料市 场，由于供应充足且同质 ...

进入第四季度，国内甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA)产业链疲软运行，价格处于近年来低位。其中，华东、山 东等主要产销区的MMA价格已跌破9000元(吨价，下同)，创近五年历史新低。业内人士认为，受产业 链供强需弱格局短期难以改变、成本端支撑乏力等因素影响，MMA市场调整还将持续，预计未来一段 时间内仍维持低位运行态势。 价格中枢下行调整 传统"银十"旺季未能给MMA产业链带来预期提振，反而成为全产业链共振下跌的起点，各环节产品价 格接连刷新年内低点。这期间MMA价格虽偶有小幅反弹，但在整体供需宽松的格局下，上行动力略显 不足。 同期，MMA的主要原料丙酮市场也表现平淡。受吉林石化酚酮新装置正式放量、港口库存未按预期下 降等因素影响，酚酮行业开工率维持高位，现货供应持续充足，丙酮价格创年内新低——华东市场价格 一度跌至4100元左右，以月均价跌幅超6%收官。此后，各地区丙酮价格均靠近4100元，在相近水平徘 徊。 金联创分析师宗彤彤介绍说，此次产业链跌幅最显著的是MMA及下游聚甲基丙烯酸甲酯(PMMA)。11 月MMA的月均价环比跌幅达6.67%，PMMA的月均价环比跌幅接近4%。 市场人士表示，12月的MMA以及PMM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated mention of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, weak coal prices, supply - demand changes in the spot market, the impact of downstream PP on PL, and the rebound of external propane prices leading to continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls in the industrial end driving up spot prices, while negative factors are the lack of significant negative feedback in PDH despite losses and the weak downstream demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1232 and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 0.5581 [1]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (PL2603, sell, 50%, entry range 6100 - 6200) and sell call options (PL2601C6000, sell, 25%, entry range 60 - 80) [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures at low prices (PL2603, buy, 25%, entry range 5700 - 5800) and sell put options (PL2601P5700, sell, 25%, entry range 50 - 70) [1]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly mentioned, but there is no actual progress, and coal prices are relatively weak recently [2]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. This week, supply decreased and demand increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and raising the overall spot price. In Shandong, after device overhauls and some downstream restarts, the spot price rebounded slightly from the low level [2]. - The main downstream product PP has sufficient supply. Recently, the compression of the PP - PL price has led to new lows in the PP end, suppressing the space for PL and causing a divergence between PL's futures and spot prices [2]. - The external propane price has rebounded, with the calculated cost at around 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the calculated PDH profit is continuously in the red. Currently, there is no more feedback on overhauls [2]. 3.3 Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors: Device overhauls in the industrial end, such as those of Binhua, Haiwei, and Xintai, have led to a rebound in the spot price from the low level [3]. - Negative factors: Although PDH is in a loss state, there is still no significant negative feedback in the short term, and the supply end remains high; the PP downstream is weak, showing the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with high supply pressure and continuous new lows in the market, and most other downstream products are also in a loss state, with low acceptance of high - priced propylene [3][5]. 3.4 Industrial Data Summary - Upstream raw material prices: Brent crude oil closed at 61.9 dollars/barrel on November 25, 2025, down 0.83 dollars from the previous day and 2.46 dollars from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as WTI, MOPJ, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - Mid - stream propylene prices: On November 25, 2025, the propylene price in East China was 5945 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 30 yuan from the previous week; the price in Shandong was 6020 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan from the previous day and 130 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Downstream prices: On November 25, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week; the price of polypropylene pellets was 6400 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous day but down 40 yuan from the previous week [6]. - Profits: The main refinery profit was 854.72 yuan/ton, and the MTO monomer profit was - 240.83 yuan/ton. Different production methods and products had different profit situations [6]. - Price spreads: Various price spreads such as PL01 - 02, PP01 - PL01, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with a loss of 11.84 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 122.71%, and a cumulative loss of 179 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 304.14% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The decline in performance is attributed to a larger decrease in product prices compared to raw material prices, high costs associated with trial production of new projects, and increased maintenance costs [1] - The company aims to enhance cost reduction and efficiency, consolidate its competitive advantages across the entire product and industry chain, and improve its risk resistance and performance levels [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has established production capacities including 600,000 tons/year of propane dehydrogenation, 700,000 tons/year of phenol and acetone, and several other chemical products [2] - The company is focusing on building a new materials and new energy industry chain, with ongoing projects such as a 300,000 tons/year direct oxidation propylene oxide project and a 250,000 tons/year electrolyte solvent facility [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is committed to accelerating the progress of ongoing projects and developing high-end industry systems in new materials and new energy [3] - There are currently no ongoing merger and acquisition projects, but the company is actively seeking and evaluating potential targets for future opportunities [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guanghua Technology's specialized chemical materials intelligent manufacturing project focuses on producing high-purity organic reagents for various industries, including precision electronics, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [2]. Group 1: Product Focus - The project will primarily manufacture high-purity organic reagents such as preparation-grade acetonitrile, acetone, isopropanol, and trichloroacetic acid [2]. - It will also produce specialized high-purity chemical reagents for the optoelectronics, new energy, PCB, and biopharmaceutical industries, including fluoride series, nitrate, and ammonium salt series high-purity chemicals [2]. - Additionally, the project will develop electronic information specialized formulated chemicals [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 92.162 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.90%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 126 million yuan, an increase of 108.91% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was -71 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 31.245 billion yuan, down 11.91% year-on-year but up 2.08% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -260 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the previous quarter, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -343 million yuan, showing an increase in losses quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 92.162 billion yuan, a decline of 14.90% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 126 million yuan, up 108.91% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -71 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses [2][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 31.245 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.91% year-on-year but an increase of 2.08% from the previous quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -260 million yuan, reflecting a loss, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -343 million yuan, indicating a worsening of losses quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Industry Outlook - The refining and petrochemical industry is expected to improve due to the implementation of anti-involution policies, which may accelerate supply clearance in the refining and olefin sectors. The aromatic chain is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook due to limited PX supply growth and steady downstream demand [13]. - The company possesses significant refining project advantages, with a total refining capacity of 16 million tons per year and various production capacities for petrochemical products, positioning it as a leading integrated refining company in China [13]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 230 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the closing price on November 5, 2025, are expected to be 262.0X, 61.0X, and 37.8X [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales for Q3 2025 were $374 million, a decrease of approximately 6% compared to the prior year, primarily due to softer demand in chemical intermediates and nylon end markets [8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA was $25 million, down $28 million from last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.6% [8][9] - Free cash flow for the trailing 12 months through Q3 2025 is approximately break-even, with a target for positive free cash flow for the full year of 2025 [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Plant nutrients showed strong performance, with a year-over-year pricing increase in the fall fill program, while nylon solutions faced pressure with moderated production rates [10][11] - Granular ammonium sulfate volume was up 20% year-over-year, contributing to record revenue for the segment in Q3 [28] - Acetone pricing moderated from multi-year highs, impacting overall chemical intermediates performance [10][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agricultural and fertilizer market continues to grow, with sulfur nutrition demand expected to increase by 3-4% per year [11] - The building construction market remains stable, while the plastics sector faces broader macro softness [12] - Demand in the semiconductor space is anticipated to improve sequentially into Q4 and 2026 [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing operational performance and cash management, with a disciplined approach to capital investment [6][16] - Strategic initiatives include leveraging a low-cost position in vertically integrated production and enhancing capabilities in ammonium sulfate growth [16][17] - The company is positioned to navigate cycles and capitalize on emerging opportunities, with a focus on long-term value creation [16][52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenging industry dynamics and the need to moderate production rates due to demand softness [4][5] - The company expects strong free cash flow in Q4, supported by working capital tailwinds [14] - There is confidence in capturing significant benefits from the 45Q carbon capture tax credits, although timing may shift to 2026 due to government processes [33][34] Other Important Information - A site-wide electrical outage at the Chesterfield nylon plant had minimal impact on Q3 results but is expected to affect Q4 EBITDA by $7-$9 million [5] - The company successfully completed a planned plant turnaround at the Hopewell facility [5] - Two new members were added to the board of directors, enhancing corporate governance and strategic growth priorities [7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the chemical intermediates market and pricing environment - Management indicated that acetone represents roughly 50% of sales in chemical intermediates, with subdued phenol demand impacting overall results [21][22] Question: Update on ammonium sulfate results - The company reported the highest third-quarter revenue for ammonium sulfate, driven by increased granular volume and favorable pricing [27][28] Question: Raw material cost trends and purchasing strategies - Management noted that they typically do not execute hedges on raw materials, with natural gas prices increasing significantly year-over-year [30][31] Question: Update on Section 45Q carbon capture credits - The company expects to receive credits in 2026 due to delays from the government shutdown, with a cumulative benefit anticipated across the program's life [33][34] Question: Impact of bonus depreciation on financial results - Bonus depreciation primarily affects the cash tax rate, with significant benefits expected in future years as more projects qualify [35][36] Question: Cost reduction initiatives for 2026 - Management highlighted a focus on productivity and addressing non-manpower fixed costs as part of their cost reduction strategy [41][42] Question: Nature of the settlement regarding intellectual property - The settlement included a monetary component and established a customer base that respects the company's intellectual property rights [45][46]