Group 1 - The global phenol and acetone market is facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply, with participants pessimistic about recovery prospects until the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, market participants have little hope for demand recovery for the remainder of the year due to oversupply, with Orlen's decision to halt production unlikely to alleviate the situation [2] - European phenol and acetone prices have remained weak, with July 29 assessments showing acetone at €600 per ton (down 33.3% since January) and phenol at €771 per ton (down 26% since January) [2] Group 2 - In the U.S., market participants expect stability in phenol and acetone markets by year-end, but low housing starts and renovation projects due to inflationary pressures will suppress demand [3] - U.S. acetone demand has stagnated since 2023, with expectations of continued weakness until 2025, and the market may face oversupply requiring increased exports [3] - As of July 22, U.S. Gulf acetone was priced at $992 per ton (down 4% since January) and phenol at $1,046 per ton (down 8% since January) [3] Group 3 - Asia is expected to continue increasing production capacity, with supply to India rising in the second half of the year, despite slow growth in solvent demand [4] - Indian phenol prices have dropped to near two-year lows, and acetone prices have reached 31-month lows due to increased supply from Asian suppliers [4] - The Asian phenol market may experience intensified oversupply due to seasonal weakening and ongoing capacity expansion, with producers facing further margin pressure [4]

山东键邦新材料股份有限公司 证券代码：603285 证券简称：键邦股份 公告编号：2025-038 2025 年 1-6 月主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第3号行业信息披露：第十三 号——化工》有关规定和披露要求，现将山东键邦新材料股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）2025年1-6月主要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入情况 2025年1-6月公司营业收入为30,711.88万元，其中主营业务收入为29,924.62 万元，其他业务收入为 787.26 万元。公司主要产品产销情况如下： | 类别 | 产量（吨） | 销量（吨） | 销售收入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 赛克 | 13,018.66 | 13,156.34 | 15,391.49 | | 钛酸酯 | 2,446.19 | 2,424.30 | 4,504.70 | | DBM/SBM | 2,388.79 | 2,351.00 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Viyuan Co., Ltd. (维远股份) has announced a significant decline in expected net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a loss between 175 million to 165 million yuan, compared to a profit of 35.73 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Viyuan Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 9.52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.06% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.62% to 565.89 million yuan, down from 98.62 million yuan in 2023 [3] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 453.11 million yuan, a decline of 36.85% compared to 71.75 million yuan in the previous year [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 49.52% to 918.53 million yuan, compared to 613.86 million yuan in 2023 [3] Initial Public Offering (IPO) Details - Viyuan Co., Ltd. raised a total of 4.065 billion yuan through its IPO, with a net amount of 3.88 billion yuan after deducting issuance costs [4] - The final net fundraising amount exceeded the original plan by 2 billion yuan, and the number of investment projects increased by one [4] - The IPO was conducted on September 15, 2021, with an issuance price of 29.56 yuan per share, and the underwriting was managed by CITIC Securities [4]

Group 1 - Propylene (C3H6) is a crucial low-carbon olefin used primarily in the production of polypropylene, acrylonitrile, isopropanol, acetone, and propylene oxide, reflecting the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][9][19] - The global propylene production capacity exceeded 171 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 2%-6% over the past decade, primarily driven by Northeast Asia, especially China [12][19] - The propylene production process includes steam cracking, catalytic cracking, methanol-to-propylene, and propane dehydrogenation (PDH), with PDH becoming a significant source of propylene alongside steam cracking [9][10][19] Group 2 - The global propylene capacity utilization rate has been declining, expected to drop to around 71% by 2025, a decrease of 10 percentage points compared to five years ago [12][19] - In 2025, China's propylene capacity is projected to account for approximately 39% of the global total, with the main downstream products being polypropylene (PP), which will dominate the demand [19][20] - The domestic propylene effective capacity is estimated to be around 69.73 million tons in 2024, with a significant concentration in the East China region, accounting for over 56% of the total capacity [25][26][38] Group 3 - The domestic propylene consumption has been increasing annually but remains below the capacity growth rate, with the main downstream consumers being PP granules, epoxy propane, and acrylonitrile [38][42] - The import dependency for domestic propylene is gradually decreasing, with most imports coming from South Korea, while exports remain minimal [42][49] - The profitability of PDH production is highly sensitive to propane prices, with recent cost optimization efforts reducing energy consumption and processing fees [9][49]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has announced the launch of propylene futures and options contracts, along with detailed rules for trading, aiming to enhance traders' understanding of the propylene spot market and related futures regulations [1] Group 1: Definition of Propylene - Propylene (C3H6) is a crucial raw material in petrochemicals, characterized as a colorless gas with a hydrocarbon odor, a molecular weight of 42.08 g/mol, and a liquid density of 513.9 kg/m³ [1] - It is classified as a hazardous material, being flammable and explosive, with an explosion limit of 2% to 11% by volume [1] Group 2: Uses of Propylene - Propylene is primarily used to produce various important organic chemical raw materials, with polypropylene being the main product, along with others like epoxy propylene, butanol, octanol, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, phenol, and acetone [2] - Polypropylene is one of the five general-purpose plastics, widely used in textiles, construction, home appliances, automotive, and packaging, with demand being relatively inelastic and closely tied to the pace of new capacity production [2] - Epoxy propylene has numerous downstream products, with polyether polyols being the largest, accounting for 75% of its applications, mainly in furniture, home appliances, and automotive sectors [2] - Acrylonitrile is primarily used to produce ABS resin, acrylic fiber, nitrile rubber, and polyacrylamide, with ABS resin being the largest downstream product, representing about 40% of acrylonitrile usage [2] Group 3: Production Processes of Propylene - The main production processes for propylene include steam cracking, catalytic cracking, coal/methanol to olefins, and propane dehydrogenation [3] - Steam cracking typically yields propylene at a rate of 14% to 18%, while catalytic cracking yields between 3% to 8% depending on the process and raw materials used [3] - Methanol to olefins (MTO) process generally achieves a propylene yield of 15% to 20%, with methanol to propylene (MTP) achieving around 30% [3] - Propane dehydrogenation (PDH) is a rapidly developing process with a propylene yield of 85% to 90%, making it the highest yield process currently in industrial application [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand due to ongoing anti-involution policies [6]. Core Insights - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the supply-demand dynamics within the industry, particularly in the pesticide sector, where inventory reduction has led to price increases [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in key products, with notable increases in herbicide prices, such as glyphosate, which rose to 25,301 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.03% increase week-on-week and a 7.18% increase year-to-date [6][12]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in various sectors, including integrated refining and chemical companies, leading tire manufacturers, and firms involved in new material production [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - The central government is focusing on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition, which is expected to improve the overall market environment [12]. - The pesticide industry has shown significant inventory reduction, with glyphosate prices increasing due to tighter market supply [12]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54%, while the basic chemical index increased by 0.80%, indicating a lag behind the broader market [14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included oil and gas engineering, polyester, and compound fertilizers, while other plastic products and textile chemicals saw declines [15][16]. 3. Key Product Price Movements - Notable price increases were observed in butanone (12.43%), TDI (5.54%), and dichloromethane (3.97%), while acetone and NYMEX natural gas experienced significant declines [24][25]. - The report also tracks price spreads, with significant increases in the spreads for dimethyl ether and PET bottle chips, while the spreads for adipic acid and acetic acid saw substantial declines [26][27]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as leading firms in the refrigerant and tire manufacturing sectors [13]. - It also highlights opportunities in the pesticide sector due to improving supply-demand conditions and suggests monitoring companies involved in high-end engineering plastics and semiconductor materials [13].

Core Viewpoint - The global largest phenol and acetone producer, INEOS, plans to permanently shut down its phenol production facility in Gladbeck, Germany, due to high energy costs and punitive carbon tax policies in Europe, which have diminished its competitiveness against imports from China and global oversupply [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The closure of INEOS's facility, which had an annual production capacity of 650,000 tons of phenol and 400,000 tons of acetone, is indicative of a broader trend of potential shutdowns in the European phenol industry due to energy competitiveness issues [2]. - Domestic phenol prices are currently at historical lows, with the average price in East China at 6,550 CNY/ton as of July 7, 2023, and a projected average of 7,026 CNY/ton for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The domestic phenol industry is experiencing a slowdown in production capacity growth, with effective capacity increasing from 3.33 million tons/year in 2021 to 6.57 million tons/year by 2024, but the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to drop to 3.57% in 2024 [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - The apparent consumption of domestic phenol is projected to grow from 3.08 million tons in 2021 to 5.24 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.37% [3]. - Domestic phenol imports have decreased significantly from 52.23 thousand tons to 24.96 thousand tons, reflecting a CAGR of -21.82%, while exports have also declined from 13.51 thousand tons to 7.91 thousand tons, with a CAGR of -16.35% [3]. - Despite the overall decline in imports and exports, a notable increase in export volume is expected in 2024, with a growth rate of 184.81% [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The anticipated exit of overseas core phenol production capacity is expected to stimulate domestic production and sales growth, benefiting domestic phenol and acetone producers [4]. - Key domestic companies with phenol production capacities include Weiyuan Co. (440,000 tons/year), Huayi Group (160,000 tons/year), Wanhua Chemical (400,000 tons/year), and Sinochem International (400,000 tons/year) [4]. - Investment focus is recommended on related stocks: Weiyuan Co. (600955.SH), Huayi Group (600623.SH), Sinochem International (600500.SH), and Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the phenol industry, specifically recommending companies such as Weiyuan Co., Huayi Group, Sinochem International, and Wanhua Chemical [4][5]. Core Insights - The domestic phenol industry is expected to recover as overseas production capacity is being shut down, particularly in Europe, due to high energy costs and carbon tax policies [2][3]. - Domestic phenol prices are currently at their lowest since June 2023, with an average price of 6,562 RMB/ton in July 2025, compared to historical averages of 8,859 RMB/ton in 2021 and 10,023 RMB/ton in 2022 [1][2]. - The effective production capacity of domestic phenol has increased significantly from 3.33 million tons/year in 2021 to 6.57 million tons/year in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.43% [2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The average price of domestic phenol in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 7,026 RMB/ton, indicating a downward trend from previous years [1]. - Historical price data shows a significant decline from 10,023 RMB/ton in 2022 to 7,914 RMB/ton in 2024 [1]. Production Capacity and Consumption - Domestic phenol production capacity growth has slowed, with a CAGR of 3.57% expected in 2024, down from 37.99% between 2021 and 2023 [2]. - Apparent consumption of domestic phenol has increased from 3.08 million tons in 2021 to 5.24 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 19.37% [2]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic phenol imports have decreased significantly from 522,300 tons in 2021 to 249,600 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -21.82% [2]. - Exports have also declined from 135,100 tons in 2021 to 79,100 tons in 2024, although a notable increase of 184.81% is expected in 2024 [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the exit of overseas phenol production capacity will likely boost domestic production and sales, benefiting companies in the sector [3]. - Key companies to watch include Weiyuan Co. (440,000 tons/year), Huayi Group (160,000 tons/year), Wanhua Chemical (400,000 tons/year), and Sinochem International (400,000 tons/year) [3].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced nearly comprehensive increases last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 0.38%, the chemical machinery index by 0.34%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 5.23%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 0.61% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included toluene diisocyanate up by 7.02%, butanone up by 6.39%, epichlorohydrin up by 6.09%, iron sulfide up by 3.82%, and dimethylformamide up by 3.77% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included liquid chlorine down by 86.51%, lithium battery separator down by 8%, aniline down by 7.67%, acetone down by 6.69%, and propylene oxide down by 6.53% [1] Group 2: Capital Market Performance - The top five listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets last week included Zaiseng Technology up by 37.13%, Kaimete Gas up by 27.46%, Honghe Technology up by 23.89%, Keta Bio up by 21.90%, and Jiuri New Materials up by 21.01% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Tiansheng New Materials down by 15.80%, Jinjiji Co. down by 15.34%, Xinyaqiang down by 14.41%, Yayun Co. down by 12.81%, and Cangzhou Mingzhu down by 10.49% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in isobutyraldehyde and TDI, suggesting potential high growth in Q2 performance for specific companies [4]. - The overall chemical sector saw a 0.80% increase in the first week of July, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [13]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 24.98 times, which is lower than the average PE of 33.31 times since 2015 [13]. Industry Performance - In the first week of July, 24 sub-industries within the chemical sector experienced growth, with the top five performers being fiberglass (+17%), compound fertilizers (+3.2%), other plastic products (+3.08%), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (+2.97%), and tires (+2.66%) [17]. - Conversely, seven sub-industries declined, with synthetic leather (-4%), petroleum trading (-2.19%), inorganic salts (-1.91%), petroleum processing (-0.57%), and textile chemicals (-0.54%) being the worst performers [17]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: dichloropropane-white (+8.82%), isobutyraldehyde (+7.2%), TDI (+7.02%), butanone (+6.39%), and sulfur iron ore (+3.82%) [23]. - The top five products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (-86.51%), aniline (-7.67%), acetone (-6.69%), propylene oxide (-6.53%), and niacinamide (-6.35%) [23]. - Among the 75 products analyzed for price spreads, the top five with the highest increases were DMF spread (+24.73%), soft foam polyether spread (+21.54%), acetone hydrogenation isopropanol spread (+17.26%), polybutadiene rubber spread (+16.69%), and hard foam polyether spread (+14.62%) [42]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament increasing by 36.09%, while other notable changes included a decrease in the inventory of chlorpyrifos (-19.05%) and an increase in ethylene glycol (+15.61%) [60]. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies expected to see substantial quarter-over-quarter growth in Q2, specifically mentioning Zhongchumai, Sully Co., and Haigong Coatings, as well as Guangxin Materials, which is anticipated to pass certification [4].