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中谷物流(603565):盈利增长亮眼,分红吸引
HTSC· 2025-09-01 07:55
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhonggu Logistics is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 12.50 [1][4]. Core Views - The report highlights strong profit growth, with a significant increase in net profit by 41.6% year-on-year, driven by a high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [1][4]. - The company announced an interim dividend of RMB 0.43 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 84.3%, which is attractive for investors [1][4]. - The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with expectations of improved freight rates in the domestic market due to seasonal demand and sustained high rental income from foreign trade [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Zhonggu Logistics reported revenue of RMB 5.34 billion, a decrease of 7.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 1.07 billion, an increase of 41.6% [1][4]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was RMB 820 million, showing a remarkable growth of 94.3% year-on-year [1][4]. Market Analysis - The foreign trade container leasing market is experiencing high demand, with the average one-year lease rate for small and medium-sized container ships increasing by 82.0% to USD 61,146 per day [2]. - The report notes that the supply of small and medium-sized container ships is at a historically low level, which supports high rental rates [2]. Domestic Market Insights - The domestic market saw a 10.6% year-on-year increase in container freight rates, driven by reduced supply as some capacity was leased to foreign trade [3]. - The company's water transport business revenue was RMB 4.48 billion, down 1.4% year-on-year, while land transport revenue fell by 28.2% to RMB 860 million [3]. Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 2%, 19%, and 9% respectively, with expected net profits of RMB 1.94 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 1.96 billion [4]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards by 3% to RMB 12.50 based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6x for 2025 [4].