证券研究报告 交通运输 地缘风险溢价或将推升全球航运价格 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 当地时间 2 月 28 日，美国联合以色列对伊朗发动大规模联合空袭。截至 3 月 1 日，双方交火持续升级，霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡及红海航线安全风险 急剧攀升，航线运力被迫重新部署和调配，航运保险费用大幅上涨。市场对 全球能源及贸易供应链中断的担忧持续加剧，战争风险溢价持续释放，油运、 集运、散货各板块运价或将迎来大幅跳涨。相关个股：中远海能 AH/招商轮 船/中远海控/海丰国际/太平洋航运。 油运：伊朗禁止船舶通过霍尔木兹海峡，供应链中断风险推升运价 截至 3 月 1 日，伊朗表示将采取"毁灭性"回击并宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡， 全球能源供应链中断风险急剧上升，或将引发市场避险情绪，推升国际油价； 同时市场加剧担忧运输成本上涨及供应链中断风险，订船需求激增，造成短 期市场供需错配，运价大幅上涨。霍尔木兹海峡是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一 出口，对全球能源供应具有重要的战略意义。根据 Kpler 数据，2025 年通 过霍尔木兹海峡运往全球的石油量（原油及凝析油）占全球石油海运总量的 31%。分国别看 ...

铁路客运量预计1565万人次，环比下降8%，比2025年同期增长9.8%。 公路人员流动量（包括高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量、公路营业性客运量） 预计20286万人次，环比下降3.4%，比2025年同期增长4.8%。其中，公路营业性客运量预计3238 万人次，环比下降2.2%，比2025年同期增长4.7%；高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出 行量预计17048万人次，环比下降3.6%，比2025年同期增长4.8%。 水路客运量预计84万人次，环比下降14.2%，比2025年同期增长19.5%。 民航客运量预计259万人次，环比下降1.7%，比2025年同期增长10%。 铁路客运量1701.4万人次，环比下降6%，比2025年同期增长12.4%。 公路人员流动量（包括高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量、公路营业性客运量） 20996万人次，环比下降4.8%，比2025年同期增长4.8%。其中，公路营业性客运量3312万人次， 环比增长0.9%，比2025年同期增长4.9%；高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量 17684万人次，环比下降5.8%，比2025年同期增长4.7 ...

来源：央视新闻客户端 记者从交通运输部获悉，2月26日（春运第25天，农历正月初十），全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达 22194万人次，环比下降3.8%，比2025年同期增长5.2%。其中： 2月25日（春运第24天，农历正月初九，星期三），全社会跨区域人员流动量23058.9万人次，环比下降 4.9%，比2025年同期（星期四）增长5.4%。其中： 铁路客运量1701.4万人次，环比下降6%，比2025年同期增长12.4%。 公路人员流动量（包括高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量、公路营业性客运量）20996 万人次，环比下降4.8%，比2025年同期增长4.8%。其中，公路营业性客运量3312万人次，环比增长 0.9%，比2025年同期增长4.9%；高速公路及普通国省道非营业性小客车人员出行量17684万人次，环比 下降5.8%，比2025年同期增长4.7%。 水路客运量97.9万人次，环比下降8.8%，比2025年同期增长20.2%。 民航客运量263.6万人次，环比下降0.2%，比2025年同期增长8.8%。 （总台央视记者 丛威娜 唐颖） 铁路客运量预计1565万人次，环比下降8%，比202 ...

其中，白云机场口岸出入境人员超44万人次、出入境客机2400余架次，南沙客运港、南沙邮轮母港、东 莞虎门客运口岸、顺德客运港和琶洲客运港等口岸出入境人员4.7万余人次、出入境客班轮220余艘次。 24日，据广州边检总站消息，春节假期，该总站共保障48.7万人次中外人员出入境，日均5.4万人次，出 入境客流量较2025年春节假期增长33%；单日最高客流量出现在2月22日（正月初六），达6.2万人次。 ...

春节假期全省高速公路累计车流量约6969.83万车次，日均车流量约774.43万车次，同比增长13.94%， 车流量最高峰在2月23日（初七）约1005.64万车次，创历年春节假期单日车流量最高纪录。港珠澳大桥 车流量21.35万车次（日均约2.37万车次），同比增长23.26%，车流量最高峰在2月21日（初五）约2.95 万车次，继2月19日突破2.7万车次、2月20日约2.71万车次后，连续三天创历史新高；深中通道车流量 118.24万车次（日均约13.14万车次），同比增长6.78%，车流量最高峰在2月22日（初六）约16.73万车 次。 接下来，全省交通运输部门将继续紧盯"天气变化"和"大客流变化"趋势，会同各方持续抓好保安全、保 畅通、优服务工作，加强每日研判、值班值守和应急调度，确保实现"平安、便捷、温馨"的春运目标。 据广东省交通运输厅消息，今年春节假期（2月15日—23日）全省交通运输总体平稳有序，跨区域人员 流动量达27550.54万人次，日均约3061.17万人次，同比增长13.85%。其中，珠江游、琼州海峡客滚运 输和港珠澳大桥、机场、铁路等多项交通数据创历史或春运新高，未发生行业安全生 ...

春节假期琼州海峡运送过海旅客超127万人次 单日车辆运输量首次突破4万辆次 高效的通行效率，离不开多方联动的硬核支撑。 在新海港联合指挥中心，屏幕上的实时数据不断跳动，工作人员紧盯车流、船班变化，精准调配运力， 让每一艘船舶的运输效能发挥到极致，让琼州海峡这条"黄金水道"始终保持畅通。 海口新海轮渡码头有限公司安检中心副经理吴海青表示，港口与琼粤两地交通、海事、气象等部门建立 24小时联合指挥体系，实现航班动态、港口监控、气象海况、路面车流数据实时共享，做到气象提前预判、 海事科学研判、港口快速调度。 "为适配绿色出行需求，我们还为新能源车打造'专道、专区、专位、专船'全流程保障体系，加密新能源 专班班次，让新能源车主过海也能一路畅通。"吴海青说。 据悉，春运期间，交通运输部派出前方工作组，统筹琼粤两省及部属珠航局、海事局、救助打捞等单位 凝聚保障合力。交通运输部珠航局牵头成立"琼州海峡客滚运输春运工作专班"，统筹运力配置与安全监管； 建立交通、气象、海事等多部门信息共享机制，实现两岸航运资源统一调度、统一指挥、统一应急。 在新海港、秀英港的"司机之家"，爱心义剪、免费观影、修车换胎等服务一应俱全，"卡友守护 ...

Core Insights - The Spring Festival holiday saw a record high in travel demand, with a total of over 2.8 billion people traveling across regions, averaging 311 million daily, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Group 1: Travel Volume and Trends - The peak travel days from the third to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year saw passenger flow exceed historical highs, with a single-day record of 380 million people on the sixth day [3]. - All modes of transportation experienced significant growth, with rail, road, and waterway passenger volumes increasing by over 10% year-on-year, while civil aviation saw a 7.3% increase [5]. Group 2: Transportation Modes and Innovations - The proportion of self-driving trips during the holiday increased, with an average of 270 million self-driving trips per day, representing 86% of total travel and a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5]. - The use of new energy vehicles was particularly notable, with an average of 11.52 million new energy vehicles passing through highways daily, a 34% increase year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The influx of travelers to rural areas boosted local consumption, expanding service consumption from urban centers to rural regions. This surge in travel positively impacted sectors such as cultural tourism, accommodation, dining, and energy supply, providing a strong impetus for economic growth at the start of the year [9].

Core Insights - The total cross-regional population flow in China during the first 20 days of the Spring Festival travel period reached 5.08 billion trips, with significant contributions from various transportation modes [1] Transportation Sector Summary - Railway passenger volume totaled 258 million trips, showing a robust increase in demand [1] - Road transportation accounted for 4.755 billion trips, dominating the overall flow [1] - Waterway passenger volume reached 1.9992 million trips, indicating a smaller but notable segment [1] - Civil aviation recorded 47.516 million trips, reflecting a growing preference for air travel [1] Daily Flow Analysis - On February 21, the total cross-regional population flow was 35.9651 million trips, marking a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% compared to 2025 [1] - Railway passenger volume on the same day was 17.187 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 17.7% compared to 2025 [1] - Road transportation saw 33.804 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5% and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% compared to 2025 [1] - Waterway passenger volume was 181.7 thousand trips, experiencing a month-on-month decline of 10.6% but a year-on-year increase of 28.1% compared to 2025 [1] - Civil aviation recorded 2.607 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 7.4% compared to 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in transportation activity during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday in Henan, with a total of 250 million people traveling, marking a 7.6% year-on-year growth and accounting for nearly 10% of the national total [3] Transportation Volume - During the holiday, highway exit traffic in Henan is expected to reach 36.69 million vehicles, a staggering increase of 35.27% compared to the same period in 2025, with small passenger cars making up 97.8% of this traffic [5] - The peak day for highway exit traffic was February 21, with 5.0178 million vehicles recorded, setting a historical record [5] - Waterway transportation also saw a significant rise, with an estimated 455,000 passengers, a 78.7% increase year-on-year, peaking at 76,000 passengers on February 21 [5] - Urban subway systems are projected to handle 13.3861 million passengers, reflecting a 17.32% increase compared to the previous year [5] Operational Strategies - Henan's transportation system employed advanced technology and refined management strategies to handle the surge in traffic, moving away from traditional manpower reliance [6] - A comprehensive monitoring system was implemented, involving daily adjustments and strict controls on over 34,738 vehicles and vessels, ensuring safety and order in transportation [6] - The use of big data and electronic monitoring systems helped identify and manage illegal operations effectively [6] Electric Vehicle Support - The charging infrastructure for electric vehicles saw a substantial increase, with a total charging volume of 13.213 million kWh and 535,000 charging sessions, both doubling compared to the previous year [8] - Mobile charging units were deployed in high-demand service areas to facilitate quick charging for electric vehicle users [8] Human Element - The article emphasizes the dedication of transportation personnel who provided assistance and support to travelers, showcasing their commitment to safety and service during the busy holiday period [9][11][12] - Instances of quick response to emergencies, such as fire incidents and vehicle breakdowns, highlight the proactive measures taken by staff to ensure passenger safety [9][11][12] Weather Considerations - As the holiday period concludes, a significant drop in temperature is expected, with a forecasted decrease of over 15°C in many areas, raising safety concerns for returning travelers [13] - The transportation system is prepared for adverse weather conditions, urging drivers to exercise caution during the return journey [13] Conclusion - The successful management of the Spring Festival transportation in Henan reflects the effectiveness of the strategies employed and the commitment of the transportation workforce, setting a positive precedent for future operations [14]

Core Insights - The overall inter-regional mobility of people reached 38,035.2 million trips on February 22, 2026, marking a month-on-month increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% compared to the same day in 2025 [1] Transportation Modes Summary - Railway passenger volume was 18.27 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1% compared to 2025 [1] - Road mobility, including both commercial and non-commercial passenger trips, totaled 35,776 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% compared to 2025 [1] - Commercial road passenger volume was 33.35 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - Non-commercial passenger trips on highways and regular national and provincial roads reached 32,441 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] - Waterway passenger volume was 1.672 million trips, showing a month-on-month decrease of 8% but a year-on-year increase of 36.1% compared to 2025 [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.644 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% compared to 2025 [1]