Core Viewpoint - There are indications that market traders are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve to implement at least one 50 basis point rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year, with some speculating that this could happen as soon as tonight [1][10]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut decision for 2025 at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, with the market widely anticipating a 25 basis point cut [1]. - Some traders are hedging against the risk of a more significant rate cut due to signs of a cooling labor market, despite persistent inflation in the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Significant Trades - A "mysterious trader" in the CME's federal funds futures market is reportedly preparing for a potentially dovish surprise from the Fed this week, as indicated by the largest block trade in history [2][5]. - This trade involved 84,000 federal funds futures contracts for October, with a risk exposure of $3.5 million per basis point, suggesting the trader is hedging against a 50 basis point cut [4]. Group 3: Options Market Activity - There has been an increase in demand for options related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting a more dovish rate expectation than currently priced in the swap market [7]. - If the Fed implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in its last three meetings of the year, these options could become profitable [7]. Group 4: Economic Context - Despite the prevailing view that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely, some investment banks, like Standard Chartered, speculate that the Fed may consider such a cut due to weak job growth [10]. - The pressure from the White House, including criticism from President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, may also influence the Fed's decision-making process [11].

该交易涉及10月的联邦基金期货合约，总计84000份，相当于每个基点的风险敞口高达350万美元。 Bolingbroke指出，该大宗交易的价格和时机均符合买方特征，鉴于当前掉期市场已充分消化25个基点降 息预期，此举可能暗示该神秘交易员正对周三美联储决议直降50个基点的风险进行对冲。 芝加哥商品交易所官方周二也已确认，这是联邦基金期货有史以来最大的大宗交易…… 智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 潇湘）有迹象显示，利率市场交易员正在加大押注，预计美联储将在今年剩 余的三次政策会议上至少实施一次直降50个基点的降息。而尤有大胆者，更是下重注预计今晚就将上演 这一幕…… 美联储政策制定者预计将于北京时间周四凌晨2点宣布2025年的首次降息决定，目前市场普遍认为最可 能出现的情况是降息25个基点…… 不过，美国劳动力市场的降温迹象，正导致一些交易员试图对冲经济前景恶化引发更大幅度降息的风 险，尽管眼下美国通胀仍具粘性。 据悉，在芝商所(CME)的联邦基金期货市场上，就有"神秘交易员"目前正在防范本周美联储决议出现超 级鸽派意外。根据研究员Ed Bolingbroke的发现，周一曲线前端的资金流动，出现了有史以来最大的联 邦 ...