Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which is expected to be highly divided among members, with a general market expectation of a 25 basis point cut [3] - There are four factions within the Federal Reserve regarding the interest rate decision: a significant rate cut faction, a moderate cut faction, a no change faction, and a rate hike faction [3] - A "mysterious trader" is betting on a potential 50 basis point cut, indicating a more dovish outlook than the current market expectations [4] Group 2 - The CME's federal funds futures market has seen unprecedented trading activity, suggesting that traders are preparing for a possible dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve [4] - If the Federal Reserve implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in the last three meetings of the year, it could lead to significant profits for those holding certain contracts [4] - The current pricing in the swap market indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of about 70 basis points before the December meeting [4]

Core Viewpoint - Market traders are increasingly betting on a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of at least one 50 basis point cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Expectations - Traders are making aggressive bets that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point cut as early as the upcoming meeting [2][3] - The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that the probability of a 50 basis point cut tonight is low, with a more likely scenario being a 25 basis point cut due to recent slowing employment growth [1][7] - The current pricing in the swap market indicates an expected cumulative cut of approximately 70 basis points before the December meeting [7] Group 2: Trading Activity - A significant trade involving 84,000 October federal funds futures contracts was executed, marking the largest block trade in the history of federal funds futures [4][5][6] - This trade suggests that a "mysterious trader" is hedging against the risk of a surprise 50 basis point cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve decision [5][6] Group 3: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve faces conflicting pressures from persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, complicating the decision-making process [9][10] - Analysts note that the upcoming meeting is particularly unique due to the political context and internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy [1][7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Market traders are increasingly betting on a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of at least one 50 basis point cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Traders are making aggressive bets that the Federal Reserve will implement a 50 basis point cut, with some speculating it could happen as soon as the upcoming meeting [3][4]. - The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that the probability of a 50 basis point cut tonight is low, with a more likely scenario being a 25 basis point cut due to recent labor market slowdowns [2][7]. Group 2: Trading Activity - A significant trade involving 84,000 October federal funds futures contracts was executed, marking the largest block trade in history, indicating that some traders are hedging against a potential surprise 50 basis point cut [5][6]. - The pricing in the swap market suggests an expected cumulative cut of about 70 basis points before the December meeting [7]. Group 3: Economic Context - The labor market's unexpected cooling has led some traders to hedge against the risk of a more substantial rate cut due to deteriorating economic prospects [4][8]. - Analysts note that the Federal Reserve faces conflicting pressures from persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, complicating their decision-making process [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to finalize the meeting's participant list just before the meeting is unprecedented, indicating potential internal conflicts among officials [2][4]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [6]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts and Predictions - The internal division within the Federal Reserve may be more pronounced than in previous meetings, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [11][12]. - The addition of Milan to the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the faction supporting more aggressive rate cuts, while the hawkish side remains significant [12]. Group 3: Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts - The dot plot will be closely watched for indications of future rate cuts, particularly regarding the number of cuts expected in 2025 and the potential for increased divergence in 2026 predictions [13][14]. - Analysts predict that the dot plot will show two rate cuts for the year, with the possibility of an adjustment based on internal disagreements [17][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically shows positive returns in the 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [22][23]. - In periods of strong economic performance with limited rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform, while defensive sectors gain traction during more aggressive rate cuts [26][30]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid high inflation, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [26].

美国参议院在本周一仅以一票的微弱优势，通过了对白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事的提名；同样是在周一，美联储理事库克则在经历 了与特朗普政府的官司后，"侥幸"留在了美联储理事会中。不难预见的是，这两位美国总统特朗普眼里的"亲信"与"眼中钉"，很可能会先在美联储内 部上演一场"口水战"。而特朗普在本周早些时候，则已明确呼吁美联储"大幅降息"！ 抛开这些政治纷争，投资者也料将密切聚焦美联储主席鲍威尔本周的表态，并寻找从最新点阵图与季度经济预测探寻未来数月利率走向的线索。这些 预测将与利率决议将于北京时间周四凌晨2点同步公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会则会在30分钟后开始。 9月17日，正如同有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos所形容的那样，今晚美联储即将召开多年来最为奇特的一场议息会议…… 外界普遍预计，受近期就业增长放缓推动，美联储官员将在周三为期两天的会议结束时降息25个基点。在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储 主席鲍威尔其实就已暗示了降息的临近，当时他转向优先考虑就业问题，而非挥之不去的通胀担忧。 然而，尽管美联储时隔9个月后的重启降息，本身就已足够引人瞩目，但今晚这个特殊议息 ...

Core Viewpoint - There are indications that market traders are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve to implement at least one 50 basis point rate cut in the remaining three policy meetings of the year, with some speculating that this could happen as soon as tonight [1][10]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate cut decision for 2025 at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, with the market widely anticipating a 25 basis point cut [1]. - Some traders are hedging against the risk of a more significant rate cut due to signs of a cooling labor market, despite persistent inflation in the U.S. [1]. Group 2: Significant Trades - A "mysterious trader" in the CME's federal funds futures market is reportedly preparing for a potentially dovish surprise from the Fed this week, as indicated by the largest block trade in history [2][5]. - This trade involved 84,000 federal funds futures contracts for October, with a risk exposure of $3.5 million per basis point, suggesting the trader is hedging against a 50 basis point cut [4]. Group 3: Options Market Activity - There has been an increase in demand for options related to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting a more dovish rate expectation than currently priced in the swap market [7]. - If the Fed implements two 50 basis point cuts or three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in its last three meetings of the year, these options could become profitable [7]. Group 4: Economic Context - Despite the prevailing view that a 50 basis point cut is unlikely, some investment banks, like Standard Chartered, speculate that the Fed may consider such a cut due to weak job growth [10]. - The pressure from the White House, including criticism from President Trump regarding the pace of rate cuts, may also influence the Fed's decision-making process [11].

该交易涉及10月的联邦基金期货合约，总计84000份，相当于每个基点的风险敞口高达350万美元。 Bolingbroke指出，该大宗交易的价格和时机均符合买方特征，鉴于当前掉期市场已充分消化25个基点降 息预期，此举可能暗示该神秘交易员正对周三美联储决议直降50个基点的风险进行对冲。 芝加哥商品交易所官方周二也已确认，这是联邦基金期货有史以来最大的大宗交易…… 智通财经9月17日讯（编辑 潇湘）有迹象显示，利率市场交易员正在加大押注，预计美联储将在今年剩 余的三次政策会议上至少实施一次直降50个基点的降息。而尤有大胆者，更是下重注预计今晚就将上演 这一幕…… 美联储政策制定者预计将于北京时间周四凌晨2点宣布2025年的首次降息决定，目前市场普遍认为最可 能出现的情况是降息25个基点…… 不过，美国劳动力市场的降温迹象，正导致一些交易员试图对冲经济前景恶化引发更大幅度降息的风 险，尽管眼下美国通胀仍具粘性。 据悉，在芝商所(CME)的联邦基金期货市场上，就有"神秘交易员"目前正在防范本周美联储决议出现超 级鸽派意外。根据研究员Ed Bolingbroke的发现，周一曲线前端的资金流动，出现了有史以来最大的联 邦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% during the July meeting, but attention is shifting towards Chairman Powell's statements regarding potential rate cuts in September, amid political pressure and mixed economic signals [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time [1]. - Two Fed officials, Waller and Bowman, may vote against the decision, marking the first time since 1993 that two officials oppose a policy decision simultaneously, indicating a significant internal divide on monetary policy direction [1][4]. - The market is pricing in a 68% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting growing expectations for a shift in policy [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Political Pressure - Economic signals are mixed, with low unemployment but signs of weakening consumer spending and manufacturing layoffs, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [6]. - Trump has intensified calls for rate cuts and criticized the Fed's spending on its headquarters renovation, adding political pressure to the Fed's decisions [2][7]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation, with over 70% of regional Fed reports indicating that businesses are passing tariff-related costs onto consumers, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation [6][7]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data and Variables - Before the September meeting, the Fed will review two non-farm payroll reports, inflation data (CPI, PCE), the actual impact of Trump's tariff policies, and second-quarter GDP data [9]. - The Fed's ability to maintain policy flexibility while responding to market expectations will be crucial in the lead-up to the September meeting [5].