联邦基金期货合约

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内有鸽派异议、外有政治施压,今夜这场“不降息”的FOMC决议注定不平静?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-30 09:01
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% during the July meeting, but attention is shifting towards Chairman Powell's statements regarding potential rate cuts in September, amid political pressure and mixed economic signals [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision and Internal Disagreements - The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time [1]. - Two Fed officials, Waller and Bowman, may vote against the decision, marking the first time since 1993 that two officials oppose a policy decision simultaneously, indicating a significant internal divide on monetary policy direction [1][4]. - The market is pricing in a 68% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, reflecting growing expectations for a shift in policy [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Political Pressure - Economic signals are mixed, with low unemployment but signs of weakening consumer spending and manufacturing layoffs, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [6]. - Trump has intensified calls for rate cuts and criticized the Fed's spending on its headquarters renovation, adding political pressure to the Fed's decisions [2][7]. - The Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariffs on inflation, with over 70% of regional Fed reports indicating that businesses are passing tariff-related costs onto consumers, which could lead to a resurgence in inflation [6][7]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data and Variables - Before the September meeting, the Fed will review two non-farm payroll reports, inflation data (CPI, PCE), the actual impact of Trump's tariff policies, and second-quarter GDP data [9]. - The Fed's ability to maintain policy flexibility while responding to market expectations will be crucial in the lead-up to the September meeting [5].