Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products is expected to boost the cargo volume on European routes in the first quarter of 2026. The policy adjustment is likely to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract, while the impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed [2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement to cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, 2026. For battery products, the policy will be adjusted step - by - step and fully cancelled by 2027 [3] Market Reaction and Short - term Cargo Volume Impact - Europe and the Asia - Pacific are the top two export markets for Chinese photovoltaic modules. From 2024 to the present, exports to Europe account for 35% - 45% of the total photovoltaic exports. From January to October this year, the export volume of photovoltaic modules to five northwest European countries was about 96 million pieces, equivalent to about 385,000 TEU, accounting for 4% - 5% of the total cargo volume on European routes [4] - The policy implementation is expected to trigger a concentrated rush to export among photovoltaic enterprises. Some enterprises plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival and speed up overseas shipments. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, this will boost the cargo volume on European routes [4] - When there were rumors of tax rebate adjustments in August 2025, there was a rush to transport in August - September. With the formal implementation of the policy and the one - step cancellation of the tax rebate rate, the scale of the rush to transport is expected to exceed the previous round. Before the policy execution, the monthly export scale may reach 65,000 - 70,000 TEU, with a monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU and a 5% boost in cargo volume, especially supporting the cargo volume during the Spring Festival off - season [5] - The impact of the rush to transport on actual freight rates needs further observation. Before the Spring Festival, if the rush to export photovoltaic products coincides with the peak shipping season, it may push up freight rates in the short term. However, after the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season in the shipping market, and shipping companies can adjust the supply of shipping capacity. The monthly increase of about 35,000 TEU can be absorbed by about two 17,000 - TEU ships, so the upward push on freight rates may be limited. From the second quarter of 2026, the overdraft effect on demand may suppress subsequent cargo volume [5] - Overall, the policy adjustment is expected to have a significant impact on near - month contracts, being beneficial to the 02 contract. The impact on the 04 contract remains to be observed: the traditional post - Spring Festival freight rate decline trend may slow down due to cargo volume support, but the front - loading of demand is actually negative for the cargo volume in the second quarter of 2026 and later [6]