集运期货合约(如2602合约)
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集运日报:悲观情绪消化,空头止盈离场,主力合约大幅上行,建议观望为主,运价并无明显波动-20251201
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 05:18
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has been digested, and short - sellers have taken profits and left the market. The main contract has risen significantly, but the freight rate has no obvious fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see. The core issue is the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rate conditions [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Freight Rate Index - On November 28th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [1]. - On November 28th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1403.13 points, up 9.57 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1404 USD/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1632 USD/FEU, down 0.79% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Main Contract Information - On November 28th, the main contract 2602 closed at 1471.9, with a gain of 6.74%, a trading volume of 41,500 lots, and an open interest of 40,100 lots, a decrease of 1089 lots from the previous day [3]. PMI Data - Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); services PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6); October Sentix investor confidence index's previous value was - 9.2, forecast value was - 8.5 [2]. - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [2]. - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52); composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range. If the market plunges, do not add positions, do not hold losses, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. Other Information - As of November 29th, the Western Land - Sea New Corridor trains have cumulatively sent more than 5 million TEUs of container goods since 2017, reaching 5.003 million TEUs. Among them, the number of TEUs sent this year has exceeded 1.3 million, reaching 1.308 million TEUs, a year - on - year increase of 55.3% [5]. - The daily limit and circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 have been adjusted to 18% [4]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4].